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  1. #1

    Royals and Tigers Futures (info for me and Poon)

    Vegas Insider has this:

    To Win AL Pennant:
    Tigers 5/1
    Royals 15/1

    Baseball Prospectus Win Projection for 2012:
    Tigers: 85
    Royals: 67


    The Tiger win projection seems low. They are only projected to have 5 more wins than the Indians. Since BP isn't a gambling house, this is kind of unsettling. At worst, I would think 90 wins is in the cards for 2012, but that is just me throwing out a number.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  2. #2
    Sugar? Mr. Poon's Avatar
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    I dug into this some over the weekend. The over/under on wins for the Royals at books seemed high. I think they didn't take into consideration recent injuries.

  3. #3
    O/U at BETDSI

    Tigers 92
    Royals 78.5

    That under on the Royals looks TASTY!
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by WhatsHisNuts View Post
    O/U at BETDSI

    Tigers 92
    Royals 78.5

    That under on the Royals looks TASTY!
    I pulled the trigger:

    ROYALS UNDER 78.5 WINS. 2 units!
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhatsHisNuts View Post
    I pulled the trigger:

    ROYALS UNDER 78.5 WINS. 2 units!
    just saw this, I saw 80 at two places and even 80.5 at one.

  6. #6
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    Ok, I’ve delayed long enough on this (could you tell I was having buyer’s remorse?). Using various online books for over/under totals, looks like the Tigers are set about 13.5 above the Royals. The Baseball Prospectus figures you gave have it at 18. As you state BP isn’t a gambling house and the Over/Unders can be skewed for where they think $ is going to come in (i.e. people betting the Tigers Over because of simply adding Fielder, or betting the Royals Over because there is implied improvement when their pitching is still horrible). What if we put it between the two at 15.5? With the half game it will give a clear winner.

    Thinking we do one bet for that, say a hat or sweatshirt, and then another on season series. There are 18 regular season meetings. Not sure how to set a line on this, assuming the Tigers will be favorites to win each series. If they took 2 of 3, each time that would be a 12-6 split. What if we set the season series at Tigers -5? They go 12/6 you win, they go 11/7 I win.

    Let me know if you think I’m off my rocker on these. I’m game for tweaking a bit if needed.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Poon View Post
    Ok, I’ve delayed long enough on this (could you tell I was having buyer’s remorse?). Using various online books for over/under totals, looks like the Tigers are set about 13.5 above the Royals. The Baseball Prospectus figures you gave have it at 18. As you state BP isn’t a gambling house and the Over/Unders can be skewed for where they think $ is going to come in (i.e. people betting the Tigers Over because of simply adding Fielder, or betting the Royals Over because there is implied improvement when their pitching is still horrible). What if we put it between the two at 15.5? With the half game it will give a clear winner.

    Thinking we do one bet for that, say a hat or sweatshirt, and then another on season series. There are 18 regular season meetings. Not sure how to set a line on this, assuming the Tigers will be favorites to win each series. If they took 2 of 3, each time that would be a 12-6 split. What if we set the season series at Tigers -5? They go 12/6 you win, they go 11/7 I win.

    Let me know if you think I’m off my rocker on these. I’m game for tweaking a bit if needed.
    Season bet: Tigers win total 17.5 OVER Royals win total. I think we should use the BP number.

    I think that is a much more even bet. If the Royals have a good year, you probably win....if they have a typical year, you lose.

    Hat/Sweatshirt bet works for me.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  8. #8
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    Fine with me, I get Royals +17.5.

    Do we want to worry about games played in case one of them only plays 161 or something with a rainout not made up (more likely for the Royals). That's the only thing that I could see trip this bet up.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Poon View Post
    Fine with me, I get Royals +17.5.

    Do we want to worry about games played in case one of them only plays 161 or something with a rainout not made up (more likely for the Royals). That's the only thing that I could see trip this bet up.
    It is what it is. If one team only plays 161, so be it.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  10. #10
    Sugar? Mr. Poon's Avatar
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    sounds good.

  11. #11
    My Tigers are not meeting expectations.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  12. #12
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    betus still has them as heavy favorites (-230) to win the division.

  13. #13
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    Tigers are 7 games up at the all-star break, they have played 2 more games. Was feeling a bit better before this most recent 3-game sweep.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Poon View Post
    Tigers are 7 games up at the all-star break, they have played 2 more games. Was feeling a bit better before this most recent 3-game sweep.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  15. #15
    Tigers now up 12, having played 2 more games than the Royals. This is more of what I was expecting out of the Tigers. The offense is starting to click and the pitching is getting better.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  16. #16
    Sugar? Mr. Poon's Avatar
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    The Royals were a disappointment prior to the all-star break and are now in a stark nose-dive.

    KC's pitching staff is on pace to have their starters pitch the fewest innings in the modern era.

  17. #17
    Sugar? Mr. Poon's Avatar
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    Essentially 3/4 of the way through the season. Detroit up 10 in the win colum having played 1 more game than KC. They will play each other 10 times the remainder of the year.

  18. #18
    It's going to be tight. Detroit has a pretty easy road to end the season and they will be in the hunt for the division, so they will be out to win each game.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  19. #19
    WTF?
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by WhatsHisNuts View Post
    WTF?
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  21. #21
    Sugar? Mr. Poon's Avatar
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    the sweep was nice until KC followed it up by losing 2 of 3 to the lowly Twins. They are 5-10 against Minny this season, pathetic.

  22. #22
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    I wish the Royals had more than 3 games remaining vs. the White Sox. I would be guaranteed to win this bet given how much KC owns them this year, and the Tigers would win the Central for you.

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Poon View Post
    I wish the Royals had more than 3 games remaining vs. the White Sox. I would be guaranteed to win this bet given how much KC owns them this year, and the Tigers would win the Central for you.
    This is fucking torture.
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  24. #24
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    WTF - beat the fucking South Siders already. It's really not that hard.

  25. #25
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  26. #26
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  27. #27
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    it's not over yet.

    and besides, you got your Royals Under for the season easily.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Poon View Post
    it's not over yet.

    and besides, you got your Royals Under for the season easily.
    Yeah. I clinched with last night's Royals loss (under 78 1/2 wins).

    COME ON TIGERS!!!

    I need a miracle to win my bet with you. Have you picked out your prize yet?
    “Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous

  29. #29
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    I don't want to jinx it.

    Being an election year, I wanted to ask for a concession a week or so ago, but all the remaining games between the two prefvented me.

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