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  1. #1
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Coming back with a couple of props tonight...

    Been laying low after a strong start followed by a precipitous drop off... Back to fading Lonzo after his big game on Saturday.

    TOTAL u11-115 L. BALL (LAL) PTS 3x
    TOTAL u19˝-130 L BALL PTS+ASSTS 3.5x
    PHX pk 3x


    gl

  2. #2
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Also, think the under is a pretty good bet in this one, but I'll wait for the total to continue to rise before tip off.

  3. #3
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Dammit....forgot to post my prop on Hardaway Jr. over Pts+Reb+Ast 24

    2nd half

    NYK TT ov50 2H (-125) 4x
    CLE/NYK ov108 2H 1x

  4. #4
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DZ View Post
    Dammit....forgot to post my prop on Hardaway Jr. over Pts+Reb+Ast 24

    2nd half

    NYK TT ov50 2H (-125) 4x
    CLE/NYK ov108 2H 1x
    what an irritating push on the TT

  5. #5
    I had 50.5

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  6. #6
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DZ View Post
    Dammit....forgot to post my prop on Hardaway Jr. over Pts+Reb+Ast 24
    By the way, I mention this also with an eye towards props in future games...I played this small tonight, for just a unit, but anyone who's been paying attention knows you can make some decent scratch playing ON opposing SGs and scoring PGs with over props on OVER PTS against the Cavs. They have the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA by far.

  7. #7
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jordan23 View Post
    I had 50.5

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    Brutal. Sorry jordan

  8. #8
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Harden tonight

    I know his props are high and to play these over can seem like a tough pill to swallow, but I honestly don't think the books are paying enough attention to Harden's production output w/o CP3. Coming off of a "down" scoring game (just 26 pts) in his last outing vs a non-competitive Indy team that couldn't justify him staying on the floor long enough to produce, he is still averaging 35.8 ppg and 11.5 apg in the month of Nov. The totals on these props are based on his full-season averages and don't account for his current form. He is simply on tear right now and has shredded TOR every matchup against them the past 3-4 years, clearing these totals easily in each game. Add to it that he averages slightly more ppg at home under d'antoni 30.0 vs 28.1ppg in '16-'17 and 34.8 at home vs 26.8ppg so far in '17. Finally, any guard with a scoring pulse has torched the Raps so far this season, so my hope is that we are going to see a lot of this tonight:



    May be adding to this later as more numbers get posted...

    TOTAL o29˝-125 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS 2x
    TOTAL o40˝-115 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS+AST 3x


    gl

  9. #9
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DZ View Post

    May be adding to this later as more numbers get posted...

    TOTAL o29˝-125 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS 2x
    TOTAL o30-120 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS 2.5x
    TOTAL o40˝-115 J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS+AST 4x



    gl
    Added a unit to the Pts+Asts prop plus added some more on pts

  10. #10
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    16 points & 2 assists in the first

  11. #11
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    21 & 4 at the half, but I noticed they took away an assist at one point while tracking the box score

  12. #12
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    31 & 9 at the end of the 3rd

  13. #13
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    Utah minus Gobert plus strong run of recent production for Kanter. Kanter has always put up good numbers against his former team that drafted him. Gobert's absence a big effect on both offense and defense, maybe not fully accounted for in some prop totals. UTA's lack of size should allow Porzingis to step out and play on the perimeter more, allowing Kanter to clean up inside. Here's how i'm playing it tonight...

    TOTAL o13˝-125 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS 2x
    TOTAL o24˝-115 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS+REB 5x
    TOTAL o17EV R. HOOD (UTA) PTS 1x


    I was also looking at playing REBs over on Favors, but the 9/8.5s I'm seeing are a tad high and seem over-adjusted even though he's starting at C. I'd need a 7.5 or 8 to play that over. Combine that with the following stats and I'll just stick with the Kanter overs...
    On the year, the Jazz are one of the six worst rebounding teams in the Association, collecting just 47.7 percent of available boards. The Knicks are a top-five team (at 52.6) by the same measure.
    gl
    Last edited by DZ; 11-15-2017 at 07:29 PM.

  14. #14
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    CLE/CHA

    Big night for Kemba (see post #6)... good scheduling spot with some rest, CHA coming home off 4 straight losses, his splits are strong at home... Cavs, well...

    TOTAL o27˝-140 K WALKER (CHA) PTS+ASSTS 2.5x
    TOTAL o23˝-115 K WALKER (CHA) PTS 1x

  15. #15
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Forgot to mention...

    I made a small play on the Knicks tonight. A little late, but they are available at a better price with live wagering now. I don't really like posting plays or even betting on them, but this looks like a good spot tonight and they've been strong against the number at home...

    NYK -4 2x

  16. #16
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    Any lonzo props?


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  17. #17
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetn91 View Post
    Any lonzo props?


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    I'm looking at them now... checking on under 25 P+R+A. Not sure if i'll play under 11.5 pts yet, but thats also a bit high. Not sure why they continue to set his totals so high. Will post within a few minutes of game time if i make a play or two.

  18. #18
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    TOTAL u11˝-110 L. BALL (LAL) PTS 2x
    TOTAL o7-155 L. BALL (LAL) AST 2x

    Under pts & over assists is how I'm going to play it late tonight... Couldn't pull the trigger on the under 25.

  19. #19
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Terrible feeling getting hooked twice tonight... first on Kanter points (where was he the last 15 minutes of the game?) and then Kemba, who was stuck on 27 pts+ast for the last 4.5 minutes of the game

  20. #20
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetn91 View Post
    Any lonzo props?


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    I probably made a mistake taking Lonzo over assists tonight, we'll see... but the general rule of thumb is play Lonzo's Points props under as long as it's in double digits and until further notice. He's not looking to score and when he shoots there is no confidence or fluidity in his shot. He's gone under his point total in 11 of 14 games and it will be 12 of 15 after tonight. Would I expect the unders on his scoring props to continue hitting at an 80% clip? Obviously, not, but I think it's safe to assume he'll go under in 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 5 games in the near term and as long as they keep putting his totals up at 10-11ppg. He may erupt with some good scoring games from time to time, but until he starts to show confidence in his shot or more aggressiveness around the rim in consecutive games, it would be wise to continue playing his points under.

  21. #21
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    I don’t think he’s getting back in this game


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  22. #22
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Yikes

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetn91 View Post
    I don’t think he’s getting back in this game


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    There's your answer why. Seems like Walton is well aware.

  23. #23
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    TOTAL o12-110 D. LILLARD (POR) REB+AST 2x

  24. #24
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    The Lillard prop would be a bigger bet, but because it's on the road I'm going to be a bit conservative. Depending on how tonight goes, we'll see about a bigger bet on the 2nd leg of the home-and-home.

    Passing on Lonzo under pts prop tonight as I'm seeing mostly 10s and 9.5s. Guess his last game was so putrid that they've adjusted down enough to move me off of fading him for tonight. Hopefully, his new haircut gives him some confidence and he'll have a high scoring game against the defense-less Suns tonight so we can fade him against Denver in the next game.

  25. #25
    Urban Achiever DZ's Avatar
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    Big night for kemba... his pts prop was just 21.5. Had a feeling he'd come back with a strong scoring effort after the Cavs loss at home, but he situation/handicap didn't back it up. Sometimes your gut can be pretty accurate.

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