F1 2018

[Snafu]

a few more:

"Combination podium finish" (bet365 like most of my F1 bets)
Will Hamilton and Ricciardo finish on the podium YES -125 3u

both cars points finish (top 10) ?
Red Bull YES -120 2u
McLaren YES +150 2u

[Snafu]

Monaco GP +10.99u

[Snafu]

Canadian Grand Prix

probably another borefest after quals. Merc's track, i doubt Ferrari or RB can keep up.

to win
Hamilton +137 4u


winning car
Mercedes +100 4u

1st practice
Bottas +275 1u

[Snafu]

-1u


3rd practice
Merc has been saving soft tyres:
Hamilton +137 3u

quals

pole
Hamilton -102 3u

qual winning margin
O 0.2 secs +150 2u


if you like chalk, Vettel has new engine update vs Räikkönen's older type and used engine.
quals H2H is Vettel -300. playing it to some parlay but not as a straight bet.

[Snafu]

-9.06u

Hamilton has shitty weekend going and he just can't perform on his level. He should have been slightly quicker than Bottas that missed pole by 0.093secs.

From my pending bets view i'm afraid that Vettel takes this but i guess i just let these pending bets run without counter bets and hope for the best. Ferrari has decent race pace and this is difficult track to make passes. Vettel also has new updated engine.

to win
Hamilton +137 4u (now +348)

winning car
Mercedes +100 4u (now +200)

race bingo:
leader after 1st
Bottas +400
Hamilton +1600

after 5laps
Bottas +400
Hamilton +1400

10laps
Bottas +350
Hamilton +1400
^1u each...

Verstappen starts with "hyper soft" so he might cause some chaos... he also makes earlier pit stop with Ricciardo than Ferrari and MB.

End of 1st lap position:
Verstappen 4th or worse +175 2u

most team points
Mercedes +110 x 4u

i see both Mercedes cars on podium...

both cars points finish
Force India YES -138 3u

winning margin
O6 secs -120 3u

good luck, i guess i need some to pull profits out of this race...

[Snafu]

what an disaster of a race: -30u

Hamilton got done shit and had lamest race i can remember.

[Snafu]

funny thing: someone flagged chequered flag while race was still going on (just when Vettel started his last lap). When Vettel actually finished race (70laps) gap between him and Bottas was 5.8secs.

BUT since flag was shown prematurely race results are from end of the lap 68.
At that moment gap was +7secs = winning.


So, not so unlucky after all....

[Snafu]

Paul Ricard aka France GP

3rd practice
Hamilton -150 2u

to win the race
Hamilton -138 5u

[Snafu]

-3u

Weather looks good so i'm just gonna ride this early Hamilton bet with small action plays, he starts from the pole and Mercedes looked good so far.

to win the race
Hamilton -138 5u

podium finish
Vettel YES -175 2u

leader after 10 laps
Hamilton -225 4u
yep, steep but imo worth it...

[Snafu]

Vettel crashed in first corner, good job...
Räikkönen was 3rd, so Vettel should have had easy podium but nooo

weekend +2½u

[Snafu]

Austrian GP

to win
Hamilton -138 5u

i'm gonna ride this pony now when Merc got updates.

[Snafu]

quals:
winning margin U 0.1secs +140 2u

[Snafu]

1-0 +2.80u

gap was 0.019 secs

pending:
to win
Hamilton -138 5u

adding
to win
Hamilton +100 4u

Merc starts 1 Bottas - 2 Hamilton and Vettel got penalty so he starts 6th.

Leader after
1st Hamilton +450 1u
5th +400 1u
10th +350 1u
laps

Car starting from pole is on the left side of the track but first corner is after short straight to the right.
If Hamilton gets decent start he should be able to squeeze past his team mate.

[Snafu]

podium finish ?
Vettel no +125 3u

he got grid penalty and starts 6th, merc takes two podium spots so he needs to pretty well to be there.

[Snafu]

Räikkönen to retire on 1st lap +1400 1u

he gets seriously sandwiched behind top two and next three, Verstappen/Grosjean/Vettel...
most accident prone top trio.

[Snafu]

well... good start but then Merc fukked up their race by not making pit stops while safety car and later both Mercs blew gearbox... Hamilton held lead over ten laps from the start.

race 3-4 -2.90u
weekend -0.10u

[Snafu]

British GP

to win

Hamilton -138 5u

pole

Hamilton -150u

teams get technical updates to this race and i hope Merc updated their updates...

[Snafu]

Qual winning margin U0.1secs +175 3u

Hamilton Räikkönen gap was 0.093 in 3rd practice, i'm pretty sure when Bottas and Vettel get their shit together they are close. Could be four cars inside 0.2 secs...

Vettel had some issues (sore back?) and went to see his physio guy middle of the 3rd practic3e

[Snafu]

2-0 10.25u

pending:

to win
Hamilton -138 5u

end of lap 1 position
Räikkönen fourth or worse +110 3u
he starts 3rd but is in outside line when going to 1st corner side by side with Bottas

if you want to take risks:
Vettel to lead after 1st, 5th and 10th pays out nicely just like Hamilton in last race.


looks like there is nothing much to bet... might just ride these

[Snafu]

played small ones to those Vettel bets and they paid out well, Kimi had bad start and Hamilton was 2nd.

weekend 3-1 +6.65u

[Snafu]

taking this early: Hamilton to win German GP +137 5u

Merc looked good but race was troubled and unlucky for them. Home race for them.

[Snafu]

quals starting soon and it's raining more or less. fill in your F1-lottery tickets:

pole
Leclerc +50000 1u
Räikkönen +1200 1u
Bottas +700 2u

[Snafu]

-4u so far

rain misses track by half an mile... Bottas 2nd, Räikkönen 3rd, Hamilton blows his gearbox (starts 14th)...

looking good for the race...

pending:
Hamilton to win German GP +137 5u
that didn't work out well...

I don't see why Vettel shouldn't win this but -225 is a bit steep. So, countering that with Bottas.

to win
Bottas +550 2u

leader after
1st +650 Bottas 1u
5th +600 Bottas 1u
10th +600 Bottas 1u

Hamilton is pretty much out of the podium so Vettel can't take risks but finish strong. And if Bottas hits Vettel... i guess that's ok for Merc... Pole is on the outside track to the first corner and 2016 it didn't have good grip and cars inside track had better starts.

fastest lap
Hamilton +200 3u

most team points
Mercedes +275 2u

possible rain showers, 40-55% chance, other than that half cloudy

a bit pushing these but good luck

[Snafu]

thanks Seb

Bottas second by team order....


race +13.35u

weekend +9.35u

[Snafu]

Hamilton got 5 second time penalty after the race: Bottas is declared as a winner but bet obviously lost...

why it wasn't given during the race ? so obvious crossing pit lane lines


EDIT: now this time penalty was converted to "warning"... Hamilton wins... good job refs

[Snafu]

Hungary GP

to win Vettel -138 5u

pole
Hamilton +900 1u
Bottas +900 1u

qual H2H
Bottas +100 2u - Hamilton

[Snafu]

quals 1-2 +6u

Usually this Hungaroring is pretty boring race, but Mercedes got lucky with weather and took 1-2 in quals.
Today weather is sunny and hot, no rain (0-10%). Tyre wear might be real problem but still Pirellis prediction is one stop (surprise) strategy.

I have Vettel -138 5u pending, and i'm gonna stick with that plan. Ferrari should have better tyre wear control than Mercedes so i'm sticking with Vettel to win... and add some:

Vettel to win +175 3u

dual forcast:
Ferrari 1 - 2 +600 2u

leader after
1st
Vettel +700
Räikkönen +600

5th
Vettel +550
Räikkönen +550

1u each, start is uphill and first corner is pretty wide to get past
if you get better start than car ahead of you.


FORZA FERRARI

[Snafu]

Belgium GP aka Spa

3rd practice
Hamilton +250 2u

[Snafu]

close but noup

quals

pole
Hamilton +187 3u

h2h
Räikkönen +200 2u - Vettel


there might be rain or not... 50/50

[Snafu]

1-2 +1.61u


Spa race:

to win
Hamilton +100 3u

most team points
Ferrari -150 5u
i see both Ferraris finishing top three, it's up to Räikkönen to survive first corner.
Bottas starts last because of technical penalty.

both cars points finish (top 10)
Force India YES -138 3u

gl