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Thread: KLM Open

  1. #1
    Registered User lostinamerica's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Between Green Bay and Iowa City
    Posts
    5,584

    KLM Open

    KLM Open:

    Nacho Elvira(40/1) e.w.
    Pablo Larrazabal(80/1) e.w.
    Matthieu Pavon(125/1) e.w.
    Martin Kaymer(66/1) e.w.
    Paul Dunne(45/1) e.w.


    Evian:

    Angela Stanford(200/1) e.w.


    GL

  2. #2
    Registered User lostinamerica's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    Between Green Bay and Iowa City
    Posts
    5,584
    Through 37 weeks:
    Outrights YTD: 48-432 (+184.52*)
    Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)

    Quote Originally Posted by lostinamerica View Post
    Evian:

    Angela Stanford(200/1) e.w.
    A winning bet that matches my biggest longshot ever of Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w at the 2009 U.S. Open (an event which also included a 5th for Ross Fisher at 125/1 e.w.), although Stanford was for smaller stakes. Actually, Sunday’s result was equaled earlier this year with a 3rd place finish on Trevor Immelman(1000/1) e.w. . . But my most amazing week ever is still from 2006 when I hit winners with both Stephen Ames (150/1 e.w.) and Jean Van de Velde(100/1 e.w.).

    I know my time tonight would be better spent capping golf and football, but I’d rather reflect for a while on a memorable season.

    “Angela Stanford in a major” was definitely "high on on my list" of "players I want to be on when they win". She has been an auto-play every year in the U.S. Women’s Open, ANA Inspiration, and Evian because simply put, time after time I would track how she would play seriously well while carrying my cash in those events in order to justify more plays . . . Watching her rack up the birdies on my computer during a stunning 64 on Friday, then a string of 4 straight birdies while I was watching on TV on Saturday, and I was pretty hopeful her narrative would make for a truly distinguished effort on Sunday. I was certainly glued to the proceedings on Sunday as she made a stunning eagle on 15, and then holed a stunning 25 foot birdie putt on 17 to bounce back from a memorable double bogie, and then piped her drive down 18, and I definitely and literally stood up and applauded on four occasions on Sunday as simply put, I realized that as long as she finished 5th or better, I was in that moment enjoying my reward for being faithful. Whether 5th or 1st, it would have felt incredibly hollow if I hadn’t been on board, but no problem there. Amazing and Righteous.

    ( Looking back, Tiger Woods in a major (28/1) at Carnoustie would have been super high on my list of players I want to be on when they win, and I was super bummed when it slipped away. Looking forward, I have to put Sam Saunders ahead of Lucas Glover as my current #1 want . . . Jean Van de Velde is the name that was my most wanted EVER on that "list". )


    *********************************************


    This also a good time to look back at my first post of the year on January 5:

    Quote Originally Posted by lostinamerica View Post
    - - 2017 was easily my worst season since I started weekly golf capping with my first offshore accounts in 2001. I was modestly profitable on a cumulative basis over the years through 2015, then had a poor year in 2016 that probably consumed all of my modest profits from the prior years, and then 2017 went right down the crapper. While my capping efforts over the last few years have not matched my passionate efforts of the first 10 or 12 years, I definitely invested at least the same time and effort for the first 6 or 7 months of 2017 as I had in recent years, but the results were never there . . . Without a doubt my one big regret from 2017 was not wagering on Andres Romero at 300+/1 at the BMW International after I had wagered on him in the Top Euro market the week before at the U.S. Open and been reasonably satisfied with his play as I was tracking him closely.

    - - I fortunately cut back on my always modest wagers as the losses mounted in 2017 (I started with “usual” bets of $8 x 2 for e.w. wagers way back when, peaked with “usual” wagers of $12 x 2 e.w. around 2007, and last year my usual wagers of $6 x 2 e.w. had been cut back to mostly $5 x 2 and then $4 x 2 e.w. wagers by the end of the season). This week I am back starting with $6 x 2 e.w. wagers . . . However, my big mistake last year was never really cutting back on my usual number of weekly plays of about 5 to 9 players per fully invested event, even though I was seeing almost no returns, and not even “threatening” very often. This year I will be scaling back on my number of plays per event until I am at least getting some encouraging close calls. So it really won’t be possible to have as bad of a season this year as last year . . . And as of now I plan on investing at least a little more time and effort on a weekly basis, which will certainly help, provided I do it . . . Although not really successful, I did “threaten” most "consistently" last year with a small number of in-running wagers (not all of which I posted), so by cutting back on my pre-event wagers I can justify a few more wagers in that area

    - - I also get lots of enjoyment from frequently sharing any ANGLES or INFORMATION behind my wagering (per my write-ups on my American football wagers), but that has been tapering off hugely in the golf forum the last two years as my plays have generally sucked and lacked conviction.
    Although 312.5 units of my 184.52 units of profits for the year have come from just 3 plays (Angela Stanford, Trevor Immelman and Steve Flesch(100/1 e.w.), I have not been whiffing on my other 477 outright plays to date. I remember distinctly the first sign of good things to come came modestly enough with Jason Day(22/1 e.w.) at the Farmer’s Open in Week#4, and many, many plays since have offered real chances week after week after week. I definitely persevered all season and didn’t get frustrated before Immelman in July finally got me into positive territory for the season. It’s been very fun to discover again that I can trust my stuff when it includes doing the work . . . The only area where I have slacked off this season is in making consistent and serious efforts to make in-running wagers.


    *********************************************


    Finally, this seems like a good time to remember exactly how I landed a 3rd place on Trevor Immelman(1000/1 e.w.) . . . That story truly begins with Andres Romero at the U.S. Open in 2017. When I saw Romero qualified in 2017, I hemmed and hawed, and finally settled on a small wager for Top European at around 200/1 e.w. I was then tracking his scoring for 36 holes and thought I detected a steady pulse despite missing the cut by 5 strokes, but carding 6 birdies in rounds of 74 and 76. The following week his price was 600/1 e.w at the BMW in Germany, on a track that seemed to me virtually ideal for a staging a comeback from years in the wilderness, but I just didn’t pull the trigger. Lo and behold, Romero wins, which is not just my biggest regret for 2017, but for several years . . . Fast forward to 2018, and I don’t really recall anything except the price that had me “privately” dabble with a tiny wager on Immelman for the Irish Open. Then for two days I saw plain as day on my computer that he was dishing out some answers to the test, but the final result was some sort of bizarre combo of double bogie and a DQ on the 36th hole that sent him packing. Then it was on to the Scottish Open the next week and it was a no-brainer for me to conclude that the venue was more suitable, the narrative was intriguing, and there was value (and a mistake) in his price being the same as it was the prior week. At that point, I told myself multiple times before Thursday that I was not going to pull an Andres Romero, and Immelman was the first bet (nothing significant) I made for the week. Gotta trust my stuff. Thank you, Trevor.


    GL

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