[RobertBIrish]

Philadelphia (Padilla) @ Houston (Hernandez)

Not sure why this total is this high and I have spent most of the night trying to figure it out and just can't, sure Padilla's starts have gone over but that is because of the Phillies giving him lot's of run support can't see that happening against Hernandez.

Philadelphia sends Vicente Padilla to the mound who has been very impressive this year especially against teams that have never faced him, he has a record of 5-2 with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 0.95 and has looked even better in his last 3 starts going 3-0 with an ERA of 1.96 and a very impressive WHIP of 0.70. This is his first start against the Astros.

Houston counters with Hernandez who has been as impressive this year he has a 3-1 record with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.19 but has really dropped that in his last 3 trips to the mound going 2-1 with a solid ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.90, he has one start against the Phillies which came last year where he pitched 6 solid innings giving up zero earned runs.

The Phillies are only hitting .235 as a team against left handed starters on the road while the Astros are hitting just .244 as a team in their last 10 games against right handers.

Bottom line is you have two very good young pitchers here that both throw allot of strikes and walk very few while both offenses are in a bit of a slump, the under is 1-5 in Hernandez's starts this year while it is 4-4 in Padilla's the under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings, the home plate umpire has called 3 overs and 4 unders. Just think that this number is to high with these two pitchers and will take my chances on the under.

Playing Under 9.5 -120

[Dr Raider]

I always enjoy your write ups

You were looking for reasons, here are a few:

Phi has averaged scoring 3.9 runs per game on the road,
while their relief pitchers have a 8.6 ERA on the road

Hou has averaged 6.1 runs per game at home, while their relief pitchers have a 4.75 ERA at home

GL

[Night Owl]

Robert B,
Very nice write up. I'm in total agreement on this one, too. One of the strongest plays I've seen all year, in my opinion. Two starters with ERA's in the 2's and the total is 9.5? Looking for both these guys to get deep into the game and keep it close and low-scoring throughout. Good luck!!

Night Owl

[RobertBIrish]

Bullpens are one of the first things I look at when capping a game but I think if you look closer both teams have some decent pitchers in the pen if you take out Duckworth and Machado out of the Phillies pen and they have some decent ERA's and take away the ERA's of a couple of guys in the Houston bullpen and there are some decent numbers example TJ Matthews has a 1.69 ERA and is on 12 days rest. Add in that both pitchers average about 6 innings and I think we have a good chance. Granted Padilla went 9 innings in his last start but that was 5 days ago and he only threw 110 pitches and he is young and strong. I think both pitchers make it about 7 innings at least then both have relievers that are more than capable of keeping it close. There sure are no sure things but I just really like this one and will hang with it! Thanks for the info I appreciate the responses allot!