[illuminati]

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT SANTA ANITA PARK

By Richard Eng

Post Time 1 p.m.

Race 1 - 6 furlongs, Purse $22,000, Starter allowance $40,000, 2-year-olds

Great Attack - Sharp debut win for Wesley Ward back at Saratoga; put on the shelf for 2-months, find out why tonight.

Ishmael - Tough trip last time and can be given a pass; John Sadler has an uncoupled entry, both are very dangerous.

Long Shot - Heir Joe

Race 2 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 30 feet), Purse $23,000, Starter allowance $40,000, 3-year-olds and up

Cafe Con Leche - Garrett Gomez is riding again with the hunger of a spring chicken; helped by the turf rail out 30 feet.

Tom Bombadil - Good try last time off the claim by Steve Knapp; tries turf, which isn't that big a switch from synthetics.

Long Shot - Megillah

Race 3 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $40,000, Maiden special weights, Fillies, 2-year-olds

Candy's Pleasure - Jerry Hollendorfer has an uncoupled entry; expect one or both to run big this afternoon.

Lady Adelle - FTS from John Sadler who has been double tough; Joel Rosario rides, watch the tote board for clues.

Long Shot - Neeko

Race 4 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 30 feet), Purse $33,000, Claiming $50,000, 3-year-olds and up

Searchforthetruth - Greg Gilchrist is one of the most underrated trainers in racing; ships in for the business.

Deal Breaker - Big debut for Mike Mitchell; if Bejarano sends the turf rail out 30 feet can only help his speed.

Long Shot - El Martillo

Race 5 - 6 furlongs, Purse $12,000, Claiming $10,000, 3-year-olds

Best of Intentions - Among many taking a big class drop for this; like the turn back in distance too.

A Royal Tizzy - Jeff Mullins bluff or powder keg; type of animal that can win by 10-lengths or not make the trip.

Long Shot - Scoops Express

Race 6 - 7 furlongs, Purse $13,000, Claiming $12,500, 3-year-olds and up

Remus - Rafael Bejarano rarely jumps on a slow wagon, especially in a cheap race like this; big class drop can only help.

Brian the Bold - Tepid chalk in a wide open affair; saves all the ground, another taking a big class drop.

Long Shot - Saint Chocolate

Race 7 - 6 furlongs, Purse $42,000, Optional claiming $25,000, Cal-breds, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Streakin Excess - Good try last time facing winners for the first time; expect she can bounce back under Garrett Gomez.

Onefunsoneofagun - Tepid chalk in another wide open affair; consistent grinder figures to get a piece of the pie.

Long Shot - Earstoyou

Race 8 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $17,000, Maiden claiming $32,000, Fillies, 2-year-olds

Saturn Moon - Subtle class drop can help a lot; Joel Rosario for Jerry Hollendorfer, a dangerous combination.

Warren's Swap Fox - Made a nice move to the lead in last, but couldn't hold on; saves ground and grinds on late.

Long Shot - Brianna Marie

Best Bet - Best of Intentions (race 5)

Santa Anita Wednesday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 15/5/$22.00; Long Shots, 8/2/$10.40; Best Bet, 0/0/$0

Santa Anita Totals - 279/72/$451.40; Long Shots, 141/25/$258.00; Best Bets, 16/9/$37.20

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #12 Winchester (7/2) in race 8 at Keeneland. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Wednesday, Mr. Madison was scratched at Belmont Park. Stats - 152/113/$856.60

[illuminati]

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Lovely Promise (7th race)


First Race


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1. Tidal Dance 2. Kiddari 3. Pumpkin Shell

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TIDAL DANCE ran a couple of big-figure races in 2008 on conventional dirt at Calder, and is back on the East Coast after a stint on the SoCal circuit capped by even try in small stake at Fairplex Park; trainer does great work with new stock. KIDDARI has been on the lead or within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead consistently at the pace call; may have tactical edge in race loaded with stretch-running types. PUMPKIN SHELL met eventual stakes winners Gozzip Girl and Maram on turf last fall, before back-to-back wins on Aqueduct's inner track; bears watching first out in eight months.

Second Race


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1. Hammering Buckeye 2. Shamroge 3. Wana Play

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HAMMERING BUCKEYE was in tough first time out vs. Discreetly Mine and Super Saver, second and fourth in the recent Champagne Stakes; blinkers on, turf to dirt, drops for live outfit. SHAMROGE shook loose early and held stubbornly to finish well clear of 9-5 FREIGHT FORWARD, BEEN A PLEASURE and COSTLY COUNT when dropped to this level; may hook up early with last-out beaten favorite WANA PLAY, who is one of six New York-breds in this "open" maiden claimer.

Third Race


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1. Coach Fruscio 2. S. Z. Madison 3. Brother of Gold

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COACH FRUSCIO broke from the gate with new-found alacrity second time in blinkers, but all it got him was a tough four-wide trip middle moving into hot pace vs. allowance repeater Afrikaner; may have to catch entrymate GRACEFUL AFLEET, who faltered late at odds-on first time in for this price. S. Z. MADISON has been slow at the break both starts, but figures close off fast-track bow when along for second; weight off, drops from sloppy special-weight. BROTHER OF GOLD has been sidelined nine months, but posted an improved 5f breeze last week; best figure came in lone start on this track last October.

Fourth Race


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1. Deanaallen'skitten 2. March Mischief 3. Angel's Cove

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DEANAALLEN'SKITTEN rallied four wide on the turn and finished evenly in debut vs. winning entrymate Lisa's Kitten; on her own this time, must find a way to make up 1 1/2 lengths in rematch with MARCH MISCHIEF. The latter rated early, split horses and continued on willingly in a promising debut. ANGEL'S COVE was wide on the clubhouse turn, sprinted clear on the backstretch and was run down late by a well-bred firster at Laurel last out; better post for second route attempt.

Fifth Race


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1. Dawn Chorus 2. West Ocean 3. Lost Without You

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DAWN CHORUS improved sharply to win her first turf start, and was flattered when the filly she beat, WEST OCEAN, returned to win soon afterward; stymied in traffic turn and stretch first allowance start vs. Strike the Bell, subsequently a close second in overnight stake. West Ocean was in some traffic, kicked in quickly when a lane materialized and drew off for promising maiden win; obvious threat for white-hot barn. LOST WITHOUT YOU has been beaten as the favorite three times this season, but her typical effort makes her a threat and she has experience on non-firm turf; overmatched latest.

Sixth Race


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1. Jacoby's Run 2. African Diamond 3. Ricoriatoa

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JACOBY'S RUN was a maiden winner in a one-turn mile, and a game allowance winner at 6fs two starts ago, all of which suggests he can handle this in-between distance; projects for favorable stalking trip, may be sitting on big race after Beyer pair-up that slightly eclipsed previous best. AFRICAN DIAMOND has been idle for 11 weeks since claimed, but returns with encouraging boost to $60k; turned away multiple pace challenges winning first dirt start. RICORIATOA was cooked through sizzling pace in return from two-month absence vs. Burley's Gold, who came back to run second in Grade 2 Jerome; under the gun from rail with pressure expected from TRIGGER'S MISSILE.

Seventh Race


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1. Lovely Promise 2. Hooked On Hope 3. Lorraine in Spain

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LOVELY PROMISE was a game maiden winner first time on grass, and held that level when beaten only three lengths in allowance; meets softer, has benefit of a race over the course, presumed to have worn new blinkers in recent bullet work. HOOKED ON HOPE makes third start back from a layoff and returns to turf after sprint sharpener on main track; lone entrant never to have run in a claiming race before. LORRAINE IN SPAIN had an impossible task racing wide from post 11 as eventual winner set dawdling pace; handled "good" Widener course when placed first for maiden win.

Eighth Race


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1. Proudinsky 2. Brave Tin Soldier 3. Danak

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PROUDINSKY is a multiple Grade 2 winner who was coming off 1 1/2-mile run on a boggy turf course when beaten as the favorite in this race last year; freshened since tougher spot vs. multiple Grade 1 winner Presious Passion. BRAVE TIN SOLDIER has won two of three since put back on turf, climaxed by sustained run to get up in Cliff Hanger on yielding turf; takes worst of the weights under the allowance conditions. DANAK has been away since pulled up and vanned off as favorite in '08 Fourstardave; trainer did fine work with Shakis, another Shadwell veteran who overcame issues to win back-to-back runnings of the Bernard Baruch in 2007-08.

Ninth Race


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1. Es Mia 2. Casa Di Vino 3. Patronus Charm

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ES MIA nearly upset multiple N.Y. Stallion winner Mother Russia the only other time she raced at 1 1/6 miles, and that was also the only other time Edgar Prado was aboard; poor start in overnight stake last out, back in proper spot. CASA DI VINO has run well in three turf starts this season capped by close decision behind Es Mia; inching forward by the numbers. PATRONUS CHARM managed in-the-money finishes three Spa turf attempts vs. this kind, ran out of ground closing day; throw out muddy off-the-turfer 18 days ago. SHE'S FOR REAL rallied to miss second by a neck at 80-1 first out; may appreciate added ground.

[illuminati]

At the Gate - Thursday



While we struggled putting together winning tickets at Belmont Park, the polytrack at Keeneland treated us well, with five winners on top on the nine race card, producing a +111% +ROI for the day.



We have seen quite a few longshots during the first eight days of the meeting, but the biggest price we saw on Wednesday was $13.20.



My winning top picks returned $4.00, $8.20, $8.40, $6.60, and $10.80.



Despite the lack of prices, nobody solved the Pick 6, and there is a $33,111 Pick 6 carryover going into Thursday’s card, which looks a bit tougher than what we saw yesterday.

The feature is the $125,000 Sycamore Stakes (G3), a 1 ½ mile marathon on the turf course that drew a full field of twelve along with three also eligibles.



I am hoping the Todd Pletcher trained Americain somehow bounces back from his last two starts versus tougher where he was drubbed by 11 and then 22 lengths.



We have stakes action at Belmont Park today thanks to Mother Nature. Sunday’s $100,000 Knickerbocker Stakes (G3) was postponed and moved to today.



The race drew eight including the Bobby Frankel trainee Proudinsky, a multiple graded stakes winner who is the 9/5 morning line favorite.



Frankel, who is at home in California with an undisclosed illness, was not winning much in recent months but has picked up five victories in the last ten days and looks to be back on track.



The weather is going to be great in both of our locales today, making for a great day to skip work and head out to the track, or just stay home an fire up the wagering account.






Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:



KEE Race 1 Md $15,000 (1:05 et)

#4 See Rock City 5/1

#10 Dixie Pixie 5/2

#12 Kafe Uno 8/1

#3 Lotsofawe 5/1



Analysis: #4 See Rock City tracked the early pace and came up short in the stretch last out for a $17.5K tag at Turfway Park, checking in third. The filly is the first starter at the meeting for the Pitts barn and she does appear to be on the improve. She ran into repeat winners in three of her first four career starts and she has a couple of sibs that are stakes winners, top earner Urban Guy ($175K). The filly won't have to move forward much off her last outing to get the job done here.



#10 Dixie Pixie takes the big plunge out of the maiden special weight ranks for the Arnold barn that has been sending out live runners at the meet. She took some play in her debut back in January at Gulfstream Park, sent off at 9/2 and she showed some early interest before fading to finish sixth. Her last two came on turf and now she tries poly for the first time. The barn is 29% winners (with a +ROI) in maiden claimers.



Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 7/2 or better.

EX: 4,10 / 3,4,10,12

TRI: 4,10 / 3,4,10,12 / 2,3,4,9,10,12



Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:



BEL Race 8 Knickerbocker S. G3 (4:38 ET)

#1 Proudinsky 9/5

#7 Danak 6/1

#2 Operation Red Dawn 8/1

#6 Yorktown 5/1



Analysis: #1 Proudinsky is returning off a four month break for the Frankel barn that seems to be heating up, winning with 4 of 10 starters at the meeting here and five races over the last ten days including the $2 million Canadian International. Last out the six year old ran a good third in the Monmouth Stakes behind the winner Presious Passion, who went on to two Grade 1's in his next three starts. He has run well fresh in the past and looks well spotted here for his return facing a light group here in this Grade 3.



#7 Danak is making his first start in 14 months for the McLaughlin barn that is 19% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. This guy won his first five starts in '06-7 overseas but has not won since. Interesting the barn brings him back in a Grade 3, which seems to signal this six year old may be ready to fire a good one off the long layoff. Makes this race a tricky read.



Wagering

WIN: #1 to win at 8/5 or better.

EX: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7

TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7



Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:



KEE Race 8 Sycamore S. (4:42 ET)

#2 Americain 5/1

#9 Cloudy's Knight 3/1

#12 Winchester 7/2

#7 Always First 8/1



Analysis: #2 Americain drops a notch in class here after getting outrun in two starts since arriving in the U.S. The colt was 4/1 when he checked in a non threatening seventh in the Sword Dancer (G1), then was 7/2 when a distant sixth in the Bowling Green (G2) over yielding footing. This guy won a Group 3 overseas and can handle the distance here, but tough to figure out why this guy ran so poorly. Pletcher brings him right back in graded stakes company for his third start off the bench and this is nothing more than a hunch that the barn has figures out how to get more out of him here.



#9 Cloudy's Knight came back off a year layoff with a sharp win in the Ky Cup Turf (G3). He looks back on track after going 0 for 4 last year. In '07 this guy won 3 of 9 starts including the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine at today's distance. He did not beat much last out but did not appear to have to work too hard and it could be a good set up to today's outing. I'm not expecting to see a regression out of this guy here.



Wagering

WIN: #2 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 2,9 / 2,7,9,12

TRI: 2,9 / 2,7,9,12 / 2,4,7,9,11,12



Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.



Keeneland

R1: #12 Kafe Uno 8/1

R2: #4 Weekend Pass 8/1

R3: #2 First Dude 8/1

R4: #3 Cabazon 10/1

R5: #8 R Brown Sugar 8/1

R5: #1 She’s Extreme 12/1

R7: #7 Attempt to Name 8/1

R8: #7 Always First 8/1

R9: #2 Penitant Prayers 15/1



Belmont Park

R2: #2 Hammering Buckeye 12/1

R3: #2 Discover Jets 8/1

R5: #10 Mary’s Song 10/1

R6: #7 Trigger’s Missile 15/1

R7: #12 Albali 8/1

R8: #2 Operation Red Dawn 8/1

R9: #6 Viva La Gata 8/1



Good luck today!

[illuminati]

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Thursday, Oct. 22
What to Watch for Today: The G3 Sycamore Stakes features Always First, the 2008 winner of this race, and $2 million earner Cloudy’s Knight among a capacity field looking to negotiate 1-1/2 miles on the turf course. Deep closers dominated the Wednesday allowance feature over this turf trip.

Weather: Pristine conditions early are expected to give way to clouds, but dry skies and 66 degrees are forecasted for the racing action Thursday. The rains are expected to hold off until after the program.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we’ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

In the back half of today’s daily double, beware Flavor in Race 2 for Al Stall. Arlington Park shippers have dominated this $30,000 claiming, non-winners of 2 lifetime, condition in the Poly era, and already have won 2 of the 3 such races offered this fall meet.

Don’t over-emphasize experience at the distance in Race 3 as babies sprint the elongated 7-furlong distance. In the 26 previous 2YO MSW races at this distance on the Polytrack, only 4 of the winners ran 7 furlongs or longer last time out. First-time starters have held their own with 8 wins as well. The three such races run at this meeting so far all have been won by favorites who were in close attendance to the early pace.

Workinonthrailroad will get plenty of attention in Race 4 in search of his third straight win for trainer Mike Maker. But note that the Turfway powerhouse barn has been far more potent with its fall meet runners who invade from other venues than the one in Florence. Maker’s 14 fall meet wins since 2006 surprisingly are comprised of only 4 horses who last raced at Turfway Park. This one rates as a well-bet runner worth taking a cautious stand-against, considering Maker’s average fall Poly winner has been just 2.3-to-1 odds anyway.

The Polycapping database goes back to the fall 2006 meeting, and not a single turf sprint has been run at Keeneland since then except in stakes company. That changes in Race 5 today when a good allowance crew of fillies fills the gate. Only 1 of the 13 turf sprints held here since the ’06 fall has been won by a horse making a surface switch (dirt to turf in that particular instance). Surprisingly, only 4 of the 10 runners entered Thursday ran on the turf last time out.

Reading the condition book and finding correct spots for optional claiming/allowance horses has become very important in recent years as racing secretaries try to find creative ways to make races competitive. Trainer Paul McGee twice last year mastered the optional claiming/allowance waters at Keeneland during the fall meet, so give extra consideration to Success Success in Race 6.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has won 10 spring baby maiden dashes at Keeneland over the past 3 springs, but none of those runners has returned to be a winner at Keeneland later in their careers. He’ll try to right that ship with come-backing Lela in Race 7, a 2-year-old allowance sprint.

Feature Race Play: An overflow field of 15 has entered the G3 Sycamore, with 12 slated to start the 1-1/2 miles turf marathon. In the dozen stakes held at this distance since the ’06 fall meeting, not once has the half-mile leader led to the wire, and the average winner has closed from a whopping 6-3/4 lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile. In fact, in the 28 races at this distance held over all classes, only 1 half-miler leader has finished the deal.

Given the distance, this race has a substantial amount of early pace in it and should set up for the late runners.

Trainer Jonathan Sheppard has a pair of marathon turf stakes wins at Keeneland in recent seasons, the only trainer since the ’06 fall meeting to win more than one. He’ll saddle Cloudy’s Knight in search of a third. Sheppard’s 6 overall turf stakes wins at Keeneland since the ’06 fall meet are matched only by Todd Pletcher, who has 6 and saddles Americain this afternoon.
This one is tough, and I’m going to take the spread option with a three-horse exacta box: Gentlemen Chester (love the route pedigree for this course and Albarado in marathons) Cloudy’s Knight (as good as ever and runs all day for great horseman) and Tiger Woodman (longshot pointed for this by a hot barn and great turf stakes jockey in Jamie Theriot).

[illuminati]

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 22
10/22/2009
1st Race
DIXIE PIXIE (#10) ran against better at Saratoga and drops in for a tag this afternoon. Trainer Rusty Arnold is having an excellent meet and this one looks like a winner under jockey Julien Leparoux. HAPPENSTANCE (#9) just missed when dropped to this level at Turfway and figures to be the main competition. LOSTOFAWE (#3) is a contender.

2nd Race
FLAVOR (#7) has been off since July but is training well for his return. His only win came over this surface in April and he looks like a solid bet to regain that winning form today. KENTUCKY HOLIDAY (#8) comes off a sharp maiden score at Hoosier and is definitely the one to beat. WEEKEND PASS (#4) could add some value to the gimmicks.

3rd Race
CHIEF COUNSEL (#4) is back in against maidens after a third-place finish in a stakes race at Monmouth. He figures to be a short price in here but trainer Bill Mott figures to have him ready and he looks like a solid bet to win under jockey Kent Desormeaux. MOUNTAIN JUSTICE (#6) is training well and trainer Andrew McKeever is good with debuting runners. MICKEJOE (#1) is a contender.

4th Race
WORKINONTHERAILROAD (#1) drops in class after back to back wins at Turfway and looks like another short-priced winner in this one. EL BOMBA (#4) is a 10-year-old veteran but is still running well. He likes this track and figures second best. TWISTING ROAD (#5) is good right now.

5th Race
STARFISH BAY (#3) faded in the stretch after pressing the ultra-quick Canadian Ballet at Philadelphia Park, and Dubai Majesty came out of that race to win the Buffalo Trace Franklin County here on Friday. She rates the slight edge in this one. BREZING RAIN (#4) has won three of four, is training well over this surface, and is the main threat to the top pick. R BROWN SUGAR (#8) has the back class to be dangerous.

6th Race
QUIETLY MINE (#6) just missed in his first race back after an 11-month layoff. He prefers the turf but owns a win over the Keeneland Polytrack and appears to be in a good spot to regain his winning form today. KING A. J. (#7) will be rallying from off the pace and trainer Hugh Robertson is having a solid meet. FREE BRAVE (#2) has won four races this year and is a definite threat.

7th Race
AFLEET MAGGI (#4) had a terrible trip last out at Presque Isle Downs. She was pinched leaving the gate and was several lengths behind the field in the early going. She rallied 10-wide on the turn and just missed getting up for the show money. Give her the edge in a very tough allowance test. MY JEN (#8) was very impressive breaking her maiden at first asking. She won on the front end at Turfway on a night where all the other winners came from off the pace and finished in the center of the track. She appears to have talent and is the one to beat. MISS DIANE (#11) gets Lasix and can’t be overlooked.

8th Race – Sycamore (G3)
CLOUDY’S KNIGHT (#9) is a 9-year-old veteran who loves the mile-and-a-half distance and is a Grade 1 winner of over $2.1 million. He came back after a year layoff to win in his first start under the care of trainer Jonathan Sheppard and is definitely capable of the repeat score. WINCHESTER (#12) has only had two starts this year and was second in the Bowling Green last out at Belmont. He is the one to beat. ALWAYS FIRST (#7) won this race last year and is a contender.

9th Race
TURWADA (#6) is training well for his debut and trainer Wayne Catalano has excellent numbers with his first-timers. Give him the edge under jockey Julien Leparoux. CASSIDYS JET (#9) flashed speed in his only race and has to be considered. DRINK WITH PRIDE (#10) drops in class after an even effort at Arlington.

[illuminati]

Race Date: Thursday October 22, 2009
Sycamore-G3 Analysis
10/22/2009
CLOUDY'S KNIGHT made a triumphant return to racing at Kentucky Downs on Sept 19 to win the Ky Cup Turf-G2 after over a year off; Rosemary Homeister is in to ride this 9-year-old gelding again for Sheppard, whose barn has a 29% win percentage here this meet; feel this veteran will be hard to beat in the 2nd start of his form cycle with a strong 5f work over the local poly coming into this. FREE FIGHTER won the Stars N Stripes-G3 at Arlington last time out at this distance under Graham, who is named to ride again; his stalking style should find him well placed today from the 4-hole and note his 5f work on the KEE poly was 6th fastest of 39 on Oct. 17. YATE'S BLACK CAT got up for 3rd at Philly Park in a $250K turf stake last out and won Mountaineer's WV Speakers Cup on August; most of his success have come at up to 1 1/8 miles, but he loves the Keeneland grass. WINCHESTER gets the most challenging post but he was a strong 2nd in the Bowling Green-G2 at Belmont last month; note he won the Secretariat Stakes-G1 last year in hs first US start, but he has yet to be on the board over 1 1/2 miles. Last year's winner ALWAYS FIRST has struggled this year to find his 2008 form, but he has worked 3 bullets since finishing 5th in a marathon at Saratoga in August; he's been off the board just once on this turf course. The nice lil check getter TIMELESS FASHION makes his marathon debut, but has good early foot and should prove the pacemaker in this; he exits a tough race in the Ky Cup Classic-G2 at Turfway after nearly three months off and should move forward today.

Bankroll bets Thurs 10/22
10/22/2009
Bankroll bets for Thurs 10/22

$25 players:
$2 win/place/show on Chief Counsel in race 3 cost: $6.00
$1 Daily Double in races 1 $ 2 cost: $4.00
Race 1--See Rock City, Lotofawe
Race 2--Weekend Pass, Flavor
$2 win/place/show on Cloudy's Knight in race 8 cost: $6.00
10-cent superfecta box in race 7 cost: $2.40
Afleet Maggi, Petite Fuego, Miss Diane, My Jen

$1 Exacta box in race 5 cost: $6.00
R. Brown Sugar, Starfish Bay, Brezing Rain
total cost: $24.40

$50 players use top bets plus:
50-cent pick 4 in races 6, 7, 8 & 9 cost: $48
6--West Court, Tempo Approved
7--Cliffy's Future, Sr. Henry, Successful Misson
8--Silver Mountain, Thabazimbi, Hidden Glance, Ground Frost
9--Linebacker, Checksandbalances, Prize Master, Bad Jenna Lee

$1 Daily Double in races 8 & 8 cost: $2.00
Silver Mountain and Linebacker
total cost: $50.00

$100 Players use top bets plus:
$2 pick Six in races 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9 cost: $48
4--My Lady A. P., Brian Trust, Involved
5--Cades Bay, Bills Presence
6--West Court, Tempo Approved
7--Cliffy's Future
8--Silver Mountain, Thabazimbi
9--Linebacker

$1 Exacta box in race 9 cost: $2.00
Linebacker & Checksandbalances
total cost: $100.00

[illuminati]

Kim Nelson's Picks for Thursday, October 22
10/22/2009
The Grade 3 Sycamore draws a full field of 3 year olds and upward. A competitive field will test their stamina over the turf course going 1 ½ miles. Cloudy’s Knight is making his 2nd start off a long layoff but his easy win last time suggests he will be more than sharp for this one. The 9 year old gelding has earned over 1.5 million of his total of 2.1 million at this distance. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard has won four 1 ½ mile turf races since the ’06 fall meet at Keeneland topping the list. Todd Pletcher follows him with 3 wins at the distance and he brings over Americain for this one. The Dynaformer colt has only 2 starts this side of the pond and his last wasn’t too inspiring. Still, he caught a very soft turf at Belmont and look for him to improve here. A Group 2 winner in France, he should fit with this bunch. Winchester ran 2nd to Gran Couturier last out posting a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Also note he took the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes in ’08 by 7 lengths. Christopher Clement trains with Dominguez in the irons. A definite threat.

Kim Nelson's Picks for Thursday, October 22
10/22/2009
$32.20 Bankroll

Race 1
$2 Daily Double
1st Dixie Plus
2nd Flavor
Cost $2

Race 2
$2 across the board
Flavor
Cost $6

Race 3
.50 Trifecta Box
Mountain Justice, Chief Counsel, Dr. Hudson
Cost $3

Race 4
$2 across the board
Workinonthrailroad
Cost $6

Race 5
.50 Trifecta Box
Starfish Bay, Breezing Rain, Oculuna
Cost $3

Race 6
$2 across the board
King A.J.
Cost $6

Race 7
.10 Superfecta Box
My Jen, Lunar Mist, Attempt to Name, Miss Diane
Cost $2.40

Race 8
.10 Superfecta Box
Cloudy’s Knight, Winchester, Americain, Gentleman Chester
Cost $2.40

Race 9
.10 Superfecta Box
Turwada, Mort’s Legacy, Drink With Pride, Triple Halo
Cost $2.40

$115.20 Bankroll

Race 1
$2 Daily Double
1st Dixie Plus
2nd Flavor
Cost $2

Race 2
$5 to win and place
Flavor
Cost $10

Race 3
$1 Trifecta Box
Mountain Justice, Chief Counsel, Dr. Hudson
Cost $6

Race 4
$5 to win and place
Workinonthrailroad
Cost $10

Race 5
$1 Trifecta Box
Starfish Bay, Breezing Rain, Oculuna
Cost $6

Race 6
$5 to win and place
King A.J.
Cost $10

Race 6
$1 Pick 4
6th King A J, Quietly Mine, Success Success
7th My Jen, Lunar Mist
8th Cloudy’s Knight, Winchester, Americain
9th Turwada, Mort’s Legacy, Drink With Pride
Cost $54

Race 7
.10 Superfecta Box
My Jen, Lunar Mist, Attempt to Name, Miss Diane
Cost $2.40

Race 8
.10 Superfecta Box
Cloudy’s Knight, Winchester, Americain, Gentleman Chester
Cost $2.40

Race 9
.10 Superfecta Box
Turwada, Mort’s Legacy, Drink With Pride, Triple Halo
Cost $2.40

[illuminati]

KEENLAND Handicapper's Consensus

[illuminati]

Post Experts Pick the Winners

[illuminati]

Belmont Analysis

Post Time: 1:00 p.m. All horses appear in post position order


Today's analysis.

1. 1 mile; $48,000; alw; 3up(f)

KIDDARI set pace, held second in the slop; distance fits. TIDAL DANCE has been facing stakes foes in California. TRAINEE finished fourth as favorite at Saratoga, was claimed by Bruce Levine.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Tidal Dance(L),120 E Prado 4-6-1 Hushion 5-2
2 Pumpkin Shell(L),117 J Velazquez 3-1-1 Donk 4-1
3 Kiddari(L),117 J Lezcano 2-7-4 Mott 3-1
4 Singita(L),117 J Espinoza 4-7-1 Turner 15-1
5 Trainee(L),120 C Velasquez 4-3-2 Levine 7-2
6 Fort Carillon(L),120 J Samyn 4-6-3 POrtiz 15-1
7 Pamona Ball(L),117 R Maragh 3-6-1 Mclaughlin 8-1

2. 6 fur; $19,000; mdn clm($25,000); 2YO

SHAMROGE dueled for lead, held second when dropped to this level in much-improved effort. FREIGHT FORWARD had traffic trouble finishing third as favorite vs. similar field. WANA PLAY ran second when dropped in for 35G, drops again to 25G today.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Hammering Buckeye(L),120 J Lezcano 9-10-x Barbara 12-1
3 Wana Play(L),120 E Prado 2-8-9 Contessa 7-2
1 a-Give It Back,120 N Wynter 8-x-x AJerkens 6-1
4 Freight Forward(L),120 J Velazquez 3-8-2 Hushion 3-1
5 Hold Your Hat,120 J Espinoza 9-x-x Callejas 30-1
6 Been a Pleasure,120 R Maragh 4-x-x Ritvo 5-1
7 Fire the Bullet,120 J Bermudez x-x-x Gullo 15-1
1A a-Costly Count,120 C Velasquez 5-x-x AJerkens 6-1
8 Shamroge(L),120 J Castellano 2-7-9 Weaver 5-2
9 Mount Karakorum,120 S Morales 9-x-x Odintz 30-1

3. 6 fur; $16,000; mdn clm($16,000); 3up

GRACEFUL AFLEET set pace, held second at 4-5 when dropped in for a tag; coupled with Coach Fruscio. DISCOVER JETS flashed speed in both starts; figures close again. SWEET ON BERNICE finished third for 25G, drops in for 16G.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 a-Coach Fruscio(L),120 M Luzzi 4-2-5 Levine 7-5
1A a-Graceful Afleet(L),120 J Castellano 2-6-7 Levine 7-5
2 Discover Jets(L),120 C Hill 6-5-x Gullo 8-1
3 S. Z. Madison(L),115 K Fox 5-2-x Ferraro 3-1
4 Kid Doc(L),122 M Studart 7-5-12 CO'Brien 30-1
5 Sweet On Bernice(L),120 R Maragh 3-6-3 Schettino 5-1
6 Speciale Giorno(L),120 S Morales 4-10-6 Sciacca 20-1
7 Brother of Gold(L),122 J Espinoza 11-7-2 Contessa 10-1
8 Out Bid,113 A Casey x-x-x Sedlacek 20-1
9 Ask Ommadon(L),120 E Castro 10-5-9 LO'Brien 12-1

4. 1 1/16m(T); $44,000; mdn; 2YO(f)

MARCH MISCHIEF finished full of run first time out to just miss over this course, distance. LA CLOCHE came on late for second trying turf; bred top and bottom for grass. DEANAALLEN'SKITTEN rallied for third behind March Mischief in well-bet debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 a-March Mischief(L),120 R Maragh 2-x-x Violette 3-1
3 Angel's Cove(L),120 J Rose 2-3-x Motion 4-1
4 Empire Spring,120 C Hill x-x-x Clement 12-1
5 The Mailet(L),120 E Castro 8-6-x Levine 20-1
6 Lost At Dawn(L),120 J Lezcano 4-6-x Sacco 12-1
7 Far Isle(L),120 J Castellano 3-3-x Contessa 8-1
2 b-Performing(L),120 J Bravo 6-5-x Mott 12-1
8 Deanaallen'skitten(L),120 E Prado 3-x-x Brown 7-2
9 La Cloche(L),120 J Velazquez 2-10-x Toner 5-1
2B b-Guru,120 No Rider x-x-x Mott 12-1
10 Joanie Baloney,120 No Rider 8-x-x PKelly 15-1
1A a-Weak Dollar Policy,120 No Rider x-x-x Violette 3-1
11 Kind Words(L),120 No Rider 8-x-x Albertrani 5-1
12 Summer Humor(L),120 J Velazquez 9-x-x Mclaughlin 6-1
13 Anchorage(L),120 J Castellano 7-x-x Pletcher 6-1

5. 6 fur(T); $45,000; alw; 3up(f)

GRANTED TIGER has solid stretch kick and good record over this course. MORE TO THE STORY dueled, tired late going seven furlongs on turf; cuts back to six. LOST WITHOUT YOU returns to allowance ranks after running in stakes; solid record in grass dashes.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
3 Catoosa(L),117 R Maragh 4-1-3 Clement 8-1
4 Lost Without You(L),120 C Hill 6-2-3 Pugh 6-1
1 a-More to the Story(L),117 E Castro 5-7-1 Mclaughlin 9-2
5 Shine Softly(L),120 E Prado 5-1-3 Toner 8-1
6 Paparazzi Charm(L),113 A Casey 6-9-1 Mena 50-1
7 Dawn Chorus(L),117 J Bravo 3-1-6 Mott 5-1
8 Granted Tiger(L),120 J Lezcano 4-2-3 AJerkens 3-1
9 Tempest Storm(L),120 C Velasquez 3-8-4 Contessa 12-1
2 b-West Ocean(L),120 J Velazquez 1-2-x Pletcher 8-1
10 Mary's Song(L),117 J Castellano 1-4-3 Brown 10-1
11 Liza Too(L),117 No Rider 3-2-1 RDutrow 5-1
2B b-Life At Ten(L),120 No Rider 7-2-2 Pletcher 8-1
12 Yo Karakorum(L),117 No Rider 3-5-5 Odintz 8-1
1A a-Extra Sharp(L),117 E Castro 2-3-1 Mclaughlin 9-2

6. 7 fur; $46,000; clm($60,000); 3YO

AFRICAN DIAMOND blew them away going two turns at Saratoga; was claimed for 35G, steps up to 60G. JACOBY'S RUN has been racing well vs. allowance company at Monmouth. RICORIATOA set pace going a mile, cuts back to seven furlongs and drops in for claiming tag.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Ricoriatoa(L),118 R Maragh 6-1-2 Lobo 6-1
2 African Diamond(L),118 E Prado 1-5-3 Brown 3-1
3 Proud Ruler(L),118 E Castro 4-2-3 Mott 5-1
4 Right of Way(L),117 C Velasquez 1-8-5 AJerkens 5-1
5 Mike From Queens(L),118 J Velazquez 14-2-6 Levine 10-1
6 Uncle Gidge(L),118 J Bravo 4-4-2 Pregman 20-1
7 Trigger's Missile(L),118 C Hill 3-5-2 Lotruglio 15-1
8 Jacoby's Run(L),118 J Lezcano 4-1-4 Hills 7-2
9 Charlott Humor(L),118 J Espinoza 6-7-8 Hough 12-1

7. 1 1/16m(T); $24,000; clm($25,000); 3up(f)

LOVELY PROMISE broke maiden over Saratoga turf two back; drops into claimer, gets blinkers on vs. field of perennial also-rans. A.P. LIGHT always comes on late, never gets there in time, but often gets piece of purse. STAYAWAYSTELLA has some late kick and stretches out.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Lorraine in Spain(L),118 J Espinoza 4-5-5 Hough 6-1
2 Dear Contender,121 R Fuentes 8-7-5 Toscano 20-1
3 Mynia(L),121 M Studart 10-8-2 Alvarez 50-1
4 Stayawaystella(L),118 M Luzzi 5-6-5 Hennig 8-1
5 Lovely Promise(L),120 R Maragh 6-1-3 Schettino 3-1
6 Wise Choice(L),121 S Morales 11-2-6 Sciacca 20-1
7 A. P. Light(L),118 E Prado 3-7-2 Ribaudo 5-1
8 Love for a Price(L),123 J Velazquez 1-2-5 O'Brien 6-1
9 Hooked On Hope(L),118 J Castellano 8-8-5 Tagg 4-1
10 Maria's Moon(L),118 C Marquez 5-10-7 Brown 8-1
11 Unique Citizen(L),121 J Espinoza 3-8-5 POrtiz 7-2
12 Albali(L),118 C Velasquez 9-2-2 Dibona 8-1
13 Anna's Unreal(L),118 No Rider 4-1-2 Dutrow 2-1
14 Crema d'Oro(L),118 J Velazquez 4-8-3 DiPrima 5-2

8. 1 1/8 miles; $100,000; 3upTHE KNICKERBOCKER

PROUDINSKY has been facing tougher fields than this and stable is going well lately. DANAK ambitiously placed coming off year's layoff but has back class. YORKTOWN French-bred colt has strong closing kick on grass.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Proudinsky(L),124 J Castellano 3-6-1 Frankel 9-5
2 Operation Red Dawn(L),117 R Maragh 3-5-3 Clement 8-1
3 Brave Tin Soldier(L),124 C Marquez 1-6-1 Mclaughlin 7-2
4 Nergal(L),119 C Hill 5-5-1 Clement 12-1
5 Cherokee Speed(L),117 J Lezcano 4-2-1 Toner 15-1
6 Yorktown(L),117 J Velazquez 1-2-9 Motion 5-1
7 Danak(L),119 C Velasquez 9-6-6 Mclaughlin 6-1
8 Lemon Cream Pie(L),117 E Castro 1-5-1 JJerkens 12-1
9 Solar Flare(L),117 D Cohen 3-1-5 ADutrow 8-5
10 The Roundhouse(L),117 J Velazquez 3-1-5 Pletcher 9-5

9. 1 1/16m(T); $41,000; mdn; 3up(f)

ES MIA just miss vs. similar field of maidens two back, and switches from Maylan Studart to Edgar Prado. CASA DI VINO rallied to just miss in here last two starts. BIG BROWNIE beaten favorite in last two starts when they came off the turf. PATRONUS CHARM floundered in mud last out, but missed by nose on grass two back.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Es Mia(L),118 E Prado 10-2-5 Ubillo 8-5
3 Big Brownie(L),118 C Hill 3-4-2 Pugh 12-1
4 She's for Real(L),118 S Morales 3-x-x DiSanto 10-1
5 Casa Di Vino(L),122 C Velasquez 3-2-2 Garofalo 4-1
6 Viva La Gata(L),118 J Chavez 4-4-x Hushion 8-1
7 Rousing Kitty(L),111 K Fox 5-6-2 Quick 20-1
8 All Sew Smooth,118 R Maragh 6-5-x Brown 15-1
9 Go Go Mickey Go(L),118 J Lezcano 3-x-x Ferraro 20-1
10 Justify(L),118 R Rodriguez 8-5-2 Campanella 12-1
11 Patronus Charm(L),122 J Castellano 7-2-3 Payne 5-1
12 Crystal Galopoff(L),115 A Serpa 9-x-x Ryerson 30-1
1 a-Sparkling T,118 No Rider x-x-x Schosberg 2-1
1A a-Laylaben(L),118 J Velazquez 2-4-x Schosberg 2-1

[illuminati]

Through the binocs

Belmont's Main track sure tightened up after weekend's rain and two days off! In first race, Super Shape, 35G claimer making his first start for Bruce Levine after finishing far back in his prior two starts for Scott Lake, led gate to wire under Javier Castellano to equal track record of 1:14.46 for 6½ furlongs (to the exact 1/100th of a second; what are the chances of that?).
Then in third race allowance, Bill Mott's 3-year-old colt Birdrun --whose only previous win came vs. 35G maiden claimers -- went mile-and-sixteenth in 1:39.38, breaking track record of 1:39.51 set by Mott's stakes horse Rock and Roll in 1998.

2ND RACE -- How awful was this bunch of NY-bred fillies running for 16G maiden-claiming tag? In field where her opponents, in their last starts, were beaten 11, 19, 25, 26, 33, 73 lengths and eased, Bobby Barbara's Picnic Rock, second beaten 1 1/4 last out, was hammered to 2-5. She sat off pace duel between 11-1 Pay the Fare and 66-1 She's Runnin' Wild, rallied outside under Rajiv Maragh to strike the front midstretch, but was soon overtaken by 7-2 Lyrical Bobcat, Jorge Chavez up, who split horses and came through inside to take command.
8TH RACE -- Ramon Dominguez, riding 2-5 favorite Belle Allure in Grade 3, $100,000 Athenia at mile-and-sixteenth on inner turf, had chalk-players chewing off their fingernails.
As Miss Lombardi set pace, pressed by Sunshine for Life as Kristi With a K tracked them outside, Belle Allure was tucking inside biding her time, and as they rounded far turn you already sensed she might have hard time finding running room. Sure enough, turning for home, Dominguez had ton of horse beneath him but nowhere to go because Belle Allure was blocked in behind wall of horses, with others blocking her path to the outside. When Kristi With a K, Jose Lezcano up, took the lead in midstretch, Belle Allure was still bottled up, but she finally found a seam and shot through, then was all out in the final furlong to run down Kristi With a K.
PICK SIX
Winning numbers: 5-1-1-10-4-1
Winners (6 of 6) paid $3,178
Consolation (5 of 6) Paid $30
No Carryover

[GuitarCrazyo]

Thanks oldman TED.

Figured since I was researching the Derby, I would share what I came up with.

Good Luck to everyone.

As a Bettor told me..Its the most foolish bet you can make.. but you need to make it if you are a bettor


My personal feeling is these 3 year olds animals are too young to be but to such a tuff test in the triple crown challenge. But that is horse racing.

gl

[OAKAS]

Originally Posted by GuitarCrazyo

Thanks oldman TED.

Figured since I was researching the Derby, I would share what I came up with.

Good Luck to everyone.

As a Bettor told me..Its the most foolish bet you can make.. but you need to make it if you are a bettor


My personal feeling is these 3 year olds animals are too young to be but to such a tuff test in the triple crown challenge. But that is horse racing.

gl

2 weeks ago

Oldman Ted posts at another forum.