[illuminati]

Betting on Intangibles


It’s often been said that two things you can’t handicap in football are turnovers and penalties. They happen often and usually help or hurt one team or another during the course of a game. How a club responds or reacts could be the difference of victory or defeat. This pair of terms and other factors that are impossible to measure are called intangibles. While they may or may not hurt your wager in Super Bowl XLIV, let’s take a closer look at some that could sway your decision.
Turnovers

“The team that wins the turnover battle is more than likely going to win the game.” We know it’s a cliché that’s often used in pro football but you can never argue against it. Out of the 32 NFL teams, 17 had a turnover margin of plus-one or higher during the regular season while 16 were minus-one or less. Cincinnati finished at a stalemate and it was one of 12 teams to reach the playoffs. Ten of the other 11 teams had positive numbers, while Arizona surprisingly made the postseason with a minus-7 mark.

New Orleans finished the season with a plus-11 (40-29) rating and it improved on that number in the playoffs with a plus-six performance. The Saints notched 29 interceptions on the year, which was one behind league-leading Green Bay (30). Of the 46 forced turnovers, New Orleans was able to score eight defensive touchdowns, which was easily the best mark in the league. Indianapolis wasn’t spectacular in this category but it still managed to post a ranking of plus-five (31-26) in its 18 encounters.

Here are a couple props listed at Sportsbook.com that focus directly on turnovers.

Total Interceptions Thrown by Both Teams:
Over 2.5 (+170) Under 2.5 (-220)

Total Fumbles Lost by Both Teams:
Over 1.5 (+115) Under 1.5 (-145)

Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown?
Yes +145 No -185

First Turnover of the Game will be what?
Interception -170 Fumble +135

Penalties

Does anybody recall the safety in Super Bowl XLIII? Considering no defensive player was given the credit for the two points, it’s easy to forget. With Pittsburgh leading Arizona 20-14, the Steelers offensive lineman Justin Hartwig was called for a holding penalty in the endzone, which gave Arizona two points and a big spark as well. It’s hard to tell if one particular flag will make a big impact this Sunday but here are some numbers to digest for both clubs.

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense were only called for 74 penalties in the regular season, which was the second-best mark. And the attack was just flagged five times in their two playoffs games as well. New Orleans was a tad more careless in the regular season, getting called for 89 offensive penalties. Unfortunately, the trend got worse in the Saints’ two playoffs battles as the team was penalized 15 times. Defensively, Indianapolis (92, 889 yards) and New Orleans (82, 717) were both in the same ballpark.

The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have taken the above numbers into serious consideration, just based on the below prop.

Team with the Most Penalty Yards:
Saints -200 Colts +160

Competition and Adversity

It’s been a while and it doesn’t happen often, but the Super Bowl has the top two seeds squaring off in the finale. Indianapolis and New Orleans didn’t meet in the regular season yet the pair definitely earned their way South Florida.





The Colts played in arguably the toughest division in football, when you’re looking at wins and losses. And Indianapolis matched up against the AFC East, arguably one of the better groups too. For games against the NFC West is nothing to brag about, but a road win at Arizona (31-10) says a lot. The NFC South wasn’t the best division in the NFL but the Saints did play against the NFC East (3-1) and the AFC East (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) this season.

The Saints and Colts have both faced their fair share of adversity over the season and both responded as well. New Orleans showed a lot of poise in comeback victories against the Dolphins, Panthers and Redskins, plus the 31-28 overtime win against Minnesota in the NFC Championship was solid as well. Indianapolis has been in five meaningful games this year where it trailed or was tied at halftime. All five times the Colts came back to win, which included their AFC title game win over the N.Y. Jets.

Experience

As you know already, the Colts made a trip to Super Bowl XLI and wound up defeating Chicago 29-21 in the finale. A large group of that team will be making a return trip and that should help an already experienced group. Playing in the same venue is an added bonus for Indy, who will be going through the same routine, practice facility and hotel arrangements.

For New Orleans, it’s a completely different story. Not only is the franchise making its first trip to the Super Bowl, the squad only has a handful of players that have played in the big game. Two of them are in the secondary, Darren Sharper and Randall Gay, and Sharper’s spotlight came more than 10 years ago during his tenure with Green Bay. The other players are a pair of fullbacks in Kyle Eckel and Heath Evans, who is on the IR.

Even though Jim Caldwell is in his first year as head coach of the Colts, he’s been with Indianapolis since 2002 and his title was the assistant head coach during that span. The Saints’ Sean Payton is no stranger to the big game either. He was the offensive coordinator with the N.Y. Giants in 2000 when they represented the NFC in Super Bowl XXXV.

Final Thoughts

The one adjective that best suits Indianapolis is consistent. You can also say that the Colts are the most methodical, prepared, disciplined and predictable too, which is a good thing. Some folks were upset that Indianapolis pulled up and decided to rest its players the last couple weeks and gave up on an opportunity of going 16-0. What people need to realize is that the franchise has a plan and it’s worked perfectly so far.

Edge: Indianapolis

[illuminati]

Books get ready for SBXLIV

Super Bowl XLIV betting has been steady at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks with ticket counts showing up at a little higher than 5 to 2 in favor of the Colts. Just about every sportsbook in town has the Colts as 5.5-point favorites with a few variations on the total from 56 to 57.

We haven’t seen anything yet though. Over 95% of all wagers on the game will be made Saturday and Sunday of this week and that will be where the telling sign is to where this game will go. So far on a small sample ratio, the Colts appear to be that team.

And why not? They have been the most consistent team all season seemingly unfazed where they play, what surface the game is on, and don’t even blink if they find themselves in a deficit.




The Saints on the hand have many in the general public asking themselves if they are in the Super Bowl merely because of the home field advantage they had in the Superdome for the NFC title game where they looked to have been outplayed.

Had this game been in early November, the Saints would likely be the team with a 5 to 2 ticket count ratio. They were peaking at that juncture and looked to be unstoppable but then came the stretch run and they ran out of gas in the final furlong losing three straight as the playoffs began.

Fortunately for the Saints, they do have a little recent history on their side. Remember the dreadful 80’s and early 90’s Super Bowls that saw blowouts every year with NFC teams dominating?

Ever since Denver knocked off the Packers as an 11-point underdog, the Super Bowls have been pretty entertaining for the most part.

Just in the last two years alone we’ve seen the underdog side cover with the Cardinals almost winning and the Giants beating the undefeated Patriots. However, the underdog winning is still pretty scarce.

Since that Denver win, where many had the money line giving the Sportsbooks one of their lowest Super Bowl wins ever, the public has been chasing for that upset win. They hit big time with the Giants two years ago, and back to back with the Buccaneers in 2003 and Patriots in 2002, but that’s it. Despite those four wins, the favorites have still won eight of the last 12 finales.

Props offer Great Value

Whenever a Sportsbook extends itself with over 200 betting options that they have to monitor and baby sit while keeping the limits in the College Basketball range, it’s a good sign that the books aren’t as confident as they would like to be. Because of so many different numbers and opinions regarding the same props around town, bettors can even find themselves a nice middle on some of the player stat based props. It’s worth putting on some comfortable shoes and taking a walk down the strip visiting a few of the books like they did in the old days.

History of the Prop

The one that got the most attention was William “Refrigerator” Perry for the 1986 Super Bowl between the Bears and Patriots. Caesar’s Palace gave odds on Perry to score a touchdown. They opened it at 20 to 1 and closed it at 2 to 1. It found lots of takers and late in the third quarter of the blowout, Perry and Mike Ditka made them all winners.

“There was a lot of buzz around town for that prop with many around the city offering it,” said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, “but it wasn’t until the reports came in from everywhere how much the books lost on the prop with stories published nationally by the wire services that made it so big.”

Bears fans to this day still hold somewhat of a grudge against Ditka for having Perry score instead of future hall of Famer Walter Payton, and so do the books who lost on the prop. Since then, everyone has taken it to another level mixing in all other types of sports stats to go against the anything that happens in the Super Bowl.

More Updates

I'll have updates Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with latest happenings in Las Vegas regarding the game as it nears. I'll also have my final prediction which I'm still waffling on a side at the moment, as are several bettors across the world.

[illuminati]

Drew Brees vs. Colts' Secondary


As we continue to break down Super Bowl XLIV let’s take a look at one of the most important matchups of Sunday’s game. I’m talking about New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees vs. the Indianapolis secondary.

**Drew Brees**

We begin this conversation with Brees, who signed with the Saints as a free agent in 2006. The Purdue product was coming off a career-threatening shoulder injury that required the surgical skills of Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham. When you’re set to enter the free-agent market, you don’t want to have visited Dr. Andrews anytime recently.

Brees had just two suitors – Miami and New Orleans. But the Dolphins and Nick Saban were more bullish on Daunte Culpepper, whereas new head coach Sean Payton made Brees and his family feel wanted. Therefore, he accepted a six-year, $60 million deal to join the Saints, who also added explosive USC running back Reggie Bush to the mix with the No. 2 selection in the draft.


The results have been magical. For the first time in franchise history, New Orleans advanced to the NFC Championship Game in 2006 before losing at Chicago. In 2007 and 2008, the Saints were in the hunt for a playoff berth, only to come up just short both seasons.

But 2009 has been different. The Saints won their first 13 games and then beat Arizona and Minnesota at the Superdome in the playoffs.

After the horror of Hurricane Katrina, Brees has New Orleans in its first Super Bowl. At this time four years ago, the futures of both Brees and the city were in peril.

The veteran signal caller threw for 4,388 yards in 15 regular-season games, producing a 34/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the playoffs, Brees has six TD passes and no interceptions. In his last eight games, he has a remarkable 22/2 TD-INT ratio.

He distributes the wealth without bias, as evidenced by seven Saints with 35 receptions or more. Like the quarterback for the Colts, Brees gets through his progressions as well as any signal caller in the league. Opposing defenses never know when he’s going to look downfield for WRs Marques Colston or Devery Henderson, hit tight end Jeremy Shockey over the middle or check down to the dangerous Reggie Bush.

Payton and Brees are like Dan Fouts and Don “Air” Corryel. They are simply the perfect match. During four seasons together, they’ve produced 122 TD passes in 63 regular-season contests.

**Colts’ Secondary**

This unit has had to make do without its leader this year. All-Pro safety Bob Sanders played in just two regular-season games before going on injured reserve. This forced third-year man Melvin Bullitt into the starting lineup.

Bullitt teams with Antoine Bethea at the safety positions. Bethea covers a lot of range and has 95 tackles this year. He also has four interceptions, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

Kelvin Hayden is Indy’s best cover corner. He has just one interception, but Hayden missed a lot of time with injuries this season. However, he’s healthy now and it will be critical for Hayden not to get burnt deep.

Jerraud Powers has enjoyed an outstanding rookie campaign at CB for the Colts. But he missed the AFC Championship Game with a foot injury and is “questionable” this week. With Marlin Jackson on IR, this leaves Tim Jennings and Jacob Lacey in crucial roles.

Lacey has three interceptions this year, returning one for a touchdown. The rookie from out of Oklahoma St. has 13 passes defended. Jennings, a University of Georgia product in his fourth NFL season, has a pair of picks and 57 tackles.

If Powers can’t play and Indy’s best pass rusher Dwight Freeney (questionable, ankle) isn’t on the field or isn’t at full speed, the Colts’ secondary will be under even more pressure to perform against New Orleans’ vaunted aerial attack.



--This is the highest total (56-57 range as of Monday) in Super Bowl history. The highest previous total was 54 ½ two season ago in the Giants’ upset win over New England. In 1995, the San Diego-San Francisco total was 54.

--Colston is Brees’ favorite target. The Hofstra product, who was drafted 2006 and made a huge impact immediately, has 70 receptions for 1,074 yards and nine TDs. Colston has a 15.3 yard-per-catch average.

--New Orleans tight end Jeremy Shockey is “probable” with a knee injury that’s slowed him in recent weeks. Shockey had three receptions for 36 yards and one TD in the win over the Cardinals in the NFC semifinals. Shockey, who played his college ball at Miami, is returning home after just one catch for nine yards against the Vikings.

[illuminati]

Saints' RBs vs. Colts' LBs

When breaking down the Saints/Colts matchup in Super Bowl XLIV, the running game for each team doesn't get much attention. Instead, it's all about the two Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Drew Brees and the dynamic passing games. The one thing New Orleans has been successful at this season is balancing its offense, giving opposing defenses something to think about when trying to slow down the Saints.

Saints' running game

The Saints ranked sixth in the league in rushing offense this season (131.6 yards/game), despite not having a running back compile at least 800 yards on the ground. New Orleans was also near the top of the league in rushing touchdowns with 21, which was tied for second-most.

Three Saints' rushers scored at least five touchdowns on the ground, led by Pierre Thomas and his six rushing scores. Thomas also paced the rushing attack with 793 yards and 5.4 yards per carry clip. Former Bronco Mike Bell began the season getting a bulk of the carries, but his production dropped considerably towards the end of the year, not rushing for over 30 yards in any of his last four games (Bell had no carries in NFC Title game).

Let's not forget about the third member of this Saints' rushing trio, former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush. The second pick of the 2006 Draft never materialized into a top rushing threat in the league, but Bush made impacts catching passes out of the backfield as well as returning punts. The former USC star never broke out for big rushing performances, compiling at least 65 yards rushing only twice this season.

Breaking down New Orleans' competition as it relates to its ground game, there weren't many surprising revelations. Twice the Saints faced top-four rushing defenses and were limited, with both those games at home. Dallas (ranked #4) held New Orleans to a season-low 65 yards in the Week 15 loss, while Minnesota (ranked #2) gave up just 68 rushing yards in the NFC Title Game.

Indianapolis ranked 24th in the regular season in rushing defense, and when New Orleans faces teams in that class, the Saints had plenty of success. When taking on defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the league in defending the run (17th or worse), New Orleans averaged 154.7 yards/game on the ground (9 games).

The Las Vegas Hilton has released hundreds of props for Super Bowl XLIV, and there are numerous ways to make money on the Saints' rushing game.

Starting with Thomas, the number for rushing yards in the game is set at 52 ½, laying the standard -110 if you want to wager on the 'over' or 'under' (Bet $110 to win $100). Over the last 12 games, Thomas has rushed for 53 yards or more just five times, but managed 61 yards in last week's NFC Championship victory over the Vikings. Thomas is tied into eight individual props, including receiving yards (26 ½), longest reception (12 ½), and longest rush (11 ½ yards). Those three props are all bet $110 to win $100.


Bush has his name all over the prop sheet, with individual and cross-sport props. The rushing yards are set at 22 ½ for the ex-Trojan, laying $110 either way to win $100. This actually isn't a bad one to take a shot at the 'over,' despite Bush getting held to eight yards on seven carries against Minnesota. Bush has rushed for at least 23 yards in four of the last six games, and with Bell losing carries, Bush can definitely break a run and cash the ticket in one shot.

Some other Bush props include longest rush (8 ½ yards), longest reception (12 ½ yards), receiving yards (28 ½), and rushing attempts (4 ½), all bet $110 to win $100. Bush will face off against two Los Angeles Lakers in cross-sport props, as the Lakers play Portland on Saturday, February 6. In an interesting prop, you can bet whether Bush will have more receiving yards than Kobe Bryant points against the Blazers (Lay $110 to win $100). Also, in the touted "Kardashian prop," you can wager on who will total more, Bush and his rushing yards or Lamar Odom combined points, rebounds, and assists against Portland.

Colts' Linebackers

As mentioned earlier, Indianapolis' rushing defense was not the strongest part of the AFC Champion's arsenal, yielding 126.5 yards/game. The Colts allowed over 120 yards on the ground in seven games this season, but also limited opponents to 90 yards or less five times. The extremes definitely skewed the average, allowing 239 yards to the Dolphins in Week 2 and 248 yards to the Bills in the season finale. However, one week after Miami ran all over Indy's rush "D," the Colts limited the Cardinals to just 49 yards on the ground.

The Colts faced two rushing-intensive offenses in the playoffs and passed both tests. In the Divisional Round against Baltimore, the Colts held the Ravens to 87 yards. That shutdown by the Indianapolis defense was super-impressive, compared to Baltimore rushing for 234 yards in the Wild Card romping of New England.

The AFC Title game proved to be another solid showing for the Colts' rushing defense, allowing 86 yards to the Jets, who ranked first in the league in running the ball. The 86 yards was in stark contrast to the Week 16 effort by New York, when it ran for 202 yards, handing Indianapolis its first loss of the season.

The Colts played seven games against teams ranked in the top five of the league in rushing. Indianapolis allowed an average of 134.8 yards/game in those contests, but to be fair, the Colts yielded 100 yards or less in four of those games.

Indianapolis' linebackers are led by MLB Gary Brackett, who racked up 99 tackles this season. Strong-side linebacker Clint Session accumulated a team-high 103 tackles to go along with two interceptions, while weak-side linebacker Phillip Wheeler picked up 61 tackles.

Both Brackett and Session are involved with tackle props for the game, according to the Hilton. Each are listed with a total of 6 ½ tackles, but the odds change for each player. In Session's case, the standard -110 'juice' applies, while if you believe Brackett will compile at least seven tackles, you need to lay $145 to win $100. On the flip side, if Brackett picks up six or less tackles and you bet the 'under,' you receive a return of $125 on a $100 bet. In this prop, sacks do not count, only solo and assisted tackles.

Which team has the edge?

Indianapolis' linebackers are led by several strong veterans, but the ability to limit the opposition's run has been inconsistent all season. The Saints may not have that Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson-type back, but New Orleans has found a way to mix in a solid running game with its already automatic passing game.

Edge: Saints

[illuminati]

Props for Fun and Profit


We’ve created all sorts of Super Bowl XLIV props for bettors to play this Sunday at Bodog. I have to say, props are one of the best things about the big game and I love being a part of the team that makes them up and assigns their odds.

My first bit of advice for bettors when it comes to props is, try to chart out how you think the game will go. First of all, which team do you think is going to win? Why? Because of a certain weakness or strength? How? In a shootout, or will points be at a premium? You’d be surprised how much easier your betting decisions become once you choose how the contest will play out. The only thing you have to do is be right!


You can also look to past history for help. For example, do you think Peyton Manning will have his way against the Saints’ defense? If so, you might consider taking the under in the total sacks for New Orleans prop. The total’s a mere 1, but Manning went sack-free in 10 regular-season games. His protection is famously good, as is his knowledge of when to throw the ball away. Then again, maybe the Saints learned something about beating Indy’s pass protection from the Ravens and Jets, both of which sacked Manning twice despite losing their games.

One of our most popular prop bets is for Super Bowl MVP. At the moment, Manning is the 2/3 favorite to win the award. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is at 9/4, which is appropriate because the Colts are expected to win. If you think otherwise, Brees offers pretty good odds.

Another Saints player who’s getting some MVP action is a little less obvious. That would be safety Darren Sharper, who picked off nine passes during the regular season and could well be the answer to stopping Manning. Sharper’s getting 28/1 odds to win the MVP. Of note, Tampa Bay safety Dexter Jackson, with two interceptions in Super Bowl XXXVII, was the last defensive MVP.

I would be remiss to not mention another one of our most popular Super Bowl prop bets: Who will win the coin toss? I’m afraid I can’t offer any advice on this one. It might not make the most sense to bet on this prop considering you’re paying $105 to win $100 in an even-odds wager, but that’s the price of fun I suppose. Also, showing off to your friends if you win.

[illuminati]

THE INFLUENCE GAME: NFL players prepare defense
February 3, 2010


EDITOR'S NOTE - An occasional look at how behind-the-scenes influence is exercised in Washington.

WASHINGTON (AP) - A year without a Super Bowl? It may be unthinkable to football fans, but that's one worry behind a new lobbying push by NFL players.

The NFL Players Association is bracing for a showdown with team owners that could lead to a work stoppage when the current collective bargaining deal expires. Hoping to enlist powerful allies, the players' group is ratcheting up its lobbying on Capitol Hill under new executive director DeMaurice Smith.

The players union spent $220,000 on lobbying in the second half of last year, more than double what it had spent in all of the previous year. Last May, soon after taking over at the union, Smith switched lobbyists, hiring Patton Boggs, the powerhouse Washington firm where he had been a partner.

Since then, he's organized a couple of player lobby days, featuring dozens of current and former players who bring their star power to meetings with lawmakers and congressional staffers. Those making the rounds have included Washington Redskins wide receiver Antwaan Randle El and Kevin Mawae, a Pro-Bowl Tennessee Titans center and president of the players' union.

The union has said it fears the owners will impose a lockout after next season's Super Bowl, and it has been building relationships on Capitol Hill in hopes of getting Congress' help in keeping the games going. The league counters that a new collective bargaining agreement will get done, but owners also contend the existing agreement, which calls for players to receive about 60 percent of revenues, is too favorable for players.

``I believe that our players have a role in making this game better for our fans, and being business partners with the NFL to grow the game,'' Smith said in an interview. ``At the same time, we want to make sure that partnership doesn't become one-sided. Every major union in the country has a presence on the Hill.''

Smith said that the increased lobbying was in part a reaction to the NFL's own expanded Washington presence. In 2008, the league hired an in-house lobbyist, former Capitol Hill staffer Jeff Miller, and established a political action committee to raise campaign money. Last year, the NFL's ``Gridiron PAC'' made about $250,000 in political donations. The union doesn't have a PAC.

Even with the union's increased lobbying, the NFL continues to vastly outspend it. In the last six months of 2009, the NFL reported $610,000 in lobbying expenses, nearly triple the union's total.

Smith said another factor in the union's increased lobbying expenditures was the recent Supreme Court case in which the NFL argued it should be considered one business - not 32 separate teams - when it comes to selling NFL-branded items. The players are worried that a broad ruling from the court, which heard arguments in the antitrust case last month, could go well beyond merchandise.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, a union executive committee member who will start in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts, recently warned that a favorable decision for the NFL would enable owners to end or restrict free agency. The league insists the case is only about licensing of intellectual property and has nothing to do with labor.

Smith brings Washington connections to the job. In addition to being a partner at Patton Boggs, he served on the Obama transition team and previously worked for Eric Holder, now the nation's attorney general.

``We recognize that Congress has a legitimate role in a myriad of issues that affect our players, their families, and our fans, beyond just the labor issues,'' Smith said. In particular, Smith said that he decided to take an aggressive position on head injuries and their lasting effects on players.

``That was an issue that I felt that not only had the NFL not done enough in the past, but we as a union had not done enough in the past,'' said Smith, who testified at two congressional hearings on the subject over the past few months.

Congress has leverage over the league in several areas, including an antitrust exemption for broadcasting contracts. That exemption, which allows the NFL to sign TV contracts on behalf of all teams, helped to transform the league into the economic powerhouse it is today.

``It's a question of Congress exercising oversight authority that it has, and to ask the right questions given the gifts they give to the National Football League,'' Smith said. ``Our players made the point of saying, the antitrust exemption that the league gets in Congress is a gift. We do think that Congress should be assured that that gift is being used in a way that benefits our fans, our players and the owners.''

NFL vice president Joe Browne said in an e-mail that most lawmakers realize that the league has used the exemption to keep games on broadcast TV.

``That benefits NFL fans, players and the clubs,'' he said. ``The players actually benefit the most monetarily since they receive 60 percent of the TV revenue through the labor agreement.''

Smith said that he hired his old firm because ``they're the best. And one of the reasons I know they're the best is I know that the NFL has looked at them as well.''

Browne confirmed that the league interviewed Jonathan Yarowsky, a Patton Boggs partner, for outside lobbying work last year. Yarowsky is one of the Patton Boggs lobbyists now working for the union.

---

On the Web:

NFLPA: http://www.nflplayers.com

NFL: http://www.nfl.com/

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Rejection a motivator for some players
February 3, 2010


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) - The overlooked, the underrated and the outright rejected have somehow landed in this Super Bowl - some with starring roles, too.



The New Orleans Saints wouldn't be competitive, let alone NFC champions and in their first Super Bowl, without a number of players who fit those categories. The list starts with quarterback Drew Brees and includes Darren Sharper, Jonathan Vilma, Jeremy Shockey, Pierre Thomas and Marques Colston.

Same for the Colts. Indianapolis defensive starters Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt weren't drafted. Neither was Jeff Saturday, the three-time All-Pro who snaps the ball to Peyton Manning. Two other starters, guard Ryan Lilja and defensive tackle Dan Muir, were picked up on waivers. DE Raheem Brock was selected in the seventh round by the Eagles in 2002, cut and signed by Indy. Pierre Garcon, the rapidly developing wide receiver, was a sixth-round draft pick.

``You've got to take advantage of your opportunities. Nothing's given to you. You've got to take it and don't let it go,'' said Antoine Bethea, the Colts' starting free safety and a sixth-round pick in 2006. ``Myself, Melvin Bullitt, Jacob Lacey, Jerraud Powers - I think we've all done that. And that's just the secondary, not even mentioning the guys on the front end. So whatever it is, whatever you need to do, you can't relinquish the opportunity that you're given.''

Brees was all but dumped by San Diego, then shunned by the Dolphins in 2006. Sharper, set adrift by Minnesota last year, signed a one-year deal at the veteran's minimum with New Orleans. Vilma and Shockey were unwanted in New York despite some Pro Bowl seasons. Thomas wasn't drafted at all, while Colston was - 252nd overall, in the final moments of the last round in '06.

``Here we are trying to come back and find ourselves,'' said Brees, who lost his starting job with the Chargers to Philip Rivers in great part because he injured his right shoulder in the 2005 season finale - his last game before entering free agency. Miami showed interest in him, then backed off on medical advice. The Saints had no such reservations.

``Sean Payton gets hired. I get brought in as a free agent with Scott Fujita,'' Brees said. ``Reggie Bush and Marques Colston get drafted. We bring in guys like Mark Simoneau and Scott Shanle. The list goes on of the guys we brought in that year as free agents.

``In a way, all of us were castaways, guys who were obviously free agents because there were plenty of teams out there that didn't want us. Yet, the New Orleans Saints wanted us and they wanted to give us an opportunity. We all used that as a rallying point to come together and accomplish something special and we did.''

It's not all superstars and super stats in this Super Bowl.

The Saints' top two rushers, Thomas and Mike Bell, went undrafted. The Colts' top receiver in these playoffs, Garcon, was taken with the 205th overall pick.

``You've got to give credit to (Payton) for keeping an undrafted guy over a fourth-round pick,'' linebacker Shanle said, referring to how the Saints stayed with Thomas over Antonio Pittman. ``Even though he was better, a lot of teams don't do that.''

These teams do. They also will trade for players who have worn out their welcome or don't fit elsewhere. Shockey and Vilma are examples.

Shockey caught 371 passes and lots of flak with the Giants for his individualism, willingness to speak out, and penchant for committing penalties. When the Giants discovered in 2007 they could win with Kevin Boss after Shockey broke his leg - sidelining him for the playoff run and Super Bowl upset of New England - they shopped the moody (some say disruptive) tight end.

Payton was buying, offering a second- and fifth-round selection.

``He's a guy that last night was floating around the meeting rooms and half the team is out for dinner,'' Payton said, referring to Shockey. ``He's looking at tape and getting ice. So I think a little bit of that is mythical. It's fun to write about.''

Vilma was the 2004 defensive rookie of the year. When the Jets switched coaches in 2006 from Herm Edwards to Eric Mangini, they also installed a 3-4 defense, which limited Vilma, whose strength is his pursuit from sideline to sideline.

It was clear from early in his tenure in New York that Mangini wanted a different kind of middle linebacker, and Vilma became available in 2008 after missing nine games with a knee injury.

Again, Payton was buying, offering a fourth-rounder and a conditional pick. Mangini, perhaps believing Vilma was damaged goods, was so eager to send the player elsewhere that he accepted the trade.

``It's funny, we had similar situations,'' Vilma said, referring to Shockey, who was his teammate at the University of Miami. ``He got hurt, I got hurt. He got traded, I got traded, and we've just been making the most of it since.''

[illuminati]

Sharp money avoids Saints
As far as coach-quarterback combinations go, only a couple in the NFL inspire belief in bettors more than Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Who imagined the New Orleans Saints would be considered cutting edge and hip?

Payton recruited Brees as a free agent in 2006, and they created a high-powered offense the Saints are riding to the Super Bowl. Along the way, they embarrassed New England's Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

But next up is Peyton Manning, the league's best quarterback. If the Indianapolis Colts were coached by a beer vendor, they would have a great coach-quarterback combination. Manning alone is that good.

So if you've been watching ESPN, reading the newspaper, listening to talk radio and soaking in the overkill of Super Bowl analysis, you're aware that most experts prefer the Colts as 5-point favorites and Sunday's game should be Manning's showcase.

Manning is making many bettors cynical about the Saints.

Even the sharpest professionals, including Las Vegas' Billy Walters and Steve Fezzik, are lining up on Indianapolis. Fezzik said he plans to bet the Colts straight up on the money line, at a price of about minus-200, and sources say Walters has done the same in a big way.

One story circulating among gambling insiders is that Walters collaborated in some way with poker pro Phil Ivey to place a $2 million money-line bet on Indianapolis at a Strip sports book.

MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood did not get into specifics but said, "We took a seven-figure bet on the Colts money line."

Sources also report Adam Meyer, a sports gambler from South Florida, has been approved for a $1 million bet at M Resort. Meyer did not confirm the amount.

"I'm going to be making a substantial wager," Meyer said. "I've only done one-third of the amount so far on the Colts on the money line."

Be aware that many of the Colts money-line bettors are playing it both ways by maneuvering to also take the Saints and the points.

Ken White, a veteran oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said he made the line minus-61/2 and the total 61, so he sees small edges to Indianapolis and over the total, which is now about 57.

White just spent a week in Miami, and he said league insiders talked about how the Saints were a bundle of nerves in their 31-28 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Brees appeared overly cautious with some throws, and his offense went three-and-out seven times.

"If the Saints were nervous in that spotlight," White said, "what's going to happen to them this Sunday?"

White said he leans to the Colts because of "experience." But he's also concerned about the right ankle injury to defensive end Dwight Freeney, a bulldozer as a pass rusher.

"Freeney is an important part of that team," White said. "If he comes back and they say he's going to play 85 percent of the plays, I feel the line will go back up to 6. But without Freeney, I'm making it 41/2."

The 6-foot Brees can stand toe to toe with the 6-foot-5-inch Manning in a passing numbers game.

Brees posted an NFL-high rating of 109.6 in the regular season, compared with Manning's 99.9 rating. Brees had 34 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, compared with Manning's 33 and 16. Since the 2006 season, Brees and Manning each have 122 touchdown passes. In his past eight games, including the playoffs, Brees has passed for 21 touchdowns with two interceptions.

The critics are picking on the weaknesses of the New Orleans defense, and Manning surely will, too. But it's not a no-win situation for the Saints. A no-win dilemma is a height contest between Tom Cruise, Al Pacino and Ryan Seacrest.

Knocking off Manning is a tall order -- and I have the Colts winning, too -- but Brees and Payton give the Saints a shot.

Despite the crush of Colts bettors swarming Las Vegas books, White said, "There's going to be a lot of Saints money, as well."

There are hundreds of ways to bet the Super Bowl, including propositions. Two weeks ago, "in-progress" wagering was a hit at books such as the Las Vegas Hilton, M Resort and Lucky's. At each commercial break, the point spread for the game is adjusted and posted for continual wagering.

"It's the wave of the future," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's books, based at the Plaza downtown. "People just like to keep betting."

And many of them will be betting big on Manning.

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Props heating up Las Vegas

This years Nevada Super Bowl betting handle will likely not pass $94.5 million and may be in danger of even equaling last seasons Steelers-Cardinals match-up which brought in $84.5 million through state sports book.
“We know it’s going to get pretty busy Saturday and Sunday,’ said South Point’s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne, “but right now (through 10 days up on the board) it’s been pretty quiet.”

Reports from many of the Sportsbooks have been similar, but most admit that they don’t keep a daily log of betting on the game throughout the two week period. They just know the bulk of their action will come on game day and the day prior.



“There could be something into the fact that there isn’t a big underdog like most years which really seems to stir up betting interest early with the people who feel they have to get it now or they’ll lose value,” says South Point’s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne.

The all-time record betting handle for the Nevada Super Bowl handle came in 2006 with the Steelers and Seahawks squared off with the Steelers a 4-point favorite. However, that year was right in the middle of the Las Vegas Boom where everyone was making tons of cash in all aspects of whatever business they were in.

If you worked in the casino, the tips were larger. If you were an executive, the bonus’ were larger. If in construction, there was tons of work because everyone was building. Real estate? The sales were through the roof. Regular folks were making hundreds of thousands of dollars by just flipping houses.

It was too easy in Las Vegas. All that money being made spilled over into all facets of the economy where people were buying new toys, clothes, and free spending with no regards to losing while gambling.

When the decline came, the sports books were hit as well.

“We’ve seen a loss over the last two years with that intermediate player. We still have the Sharp players and we still have the regular guy who bets $20 to $100 per day, but we’ve seen a decline in the regular guy with the larger bank roll who plays $500 to $1,000 per game,“ says Osborne.

Nevada sportsbooks overall numbers haven’t seen the dramatic declines like table games and slots, in fact they’re relatively flat from 2008 to 2009, but that regular player who was playing a dime a day has changed his definition of a dime to mean closer to $10 than a thousand.

Thus far the big plays haven’t come yet. One Sharp bettor was enticed to take the Colts on the money line laying -200 when it was the cheapest in town. Right now most Vegas books are dealing -210/+175 on the game.

The M Resort and Spa has the lowest line in Vegas right now with the Colts a 4.5-point favorite while most of the books are settled at 5 or 5.5, which appears to be a good sign, but Sports Director Mike Colbert has somewhat of an opinion the game.

“I liked the game “3” from the start and I still believe that is what the line should be,” said Colbert, “We took some early Colts action when we opened the game and it has been steady at 4.5 every since with good two way action. Until someone pushes me off the number with a huge wager, I’m staying where I’m at.”

“I have my line screens on and I can see what everyone else in town has, but I feel comfortable in my number and feel by game time we’ll all be closer to 4.”

So far, if no one is biting with the Colts laying 4.5, he may very well be ahead of the curve.

Colbert also explained that he has seen more action on his props than the game itself.

“We have seen lots of action on the Colts stat based player props that we have matched up with Saints players. Of the 20 player vs. player props, about 15 of them have been bet on the Colts players side.“

If looking for a new Las Vegas experience in Super Bowl betting, the M Resort and Spa has something for you with their "In-game Wagering System" where you can bet the game and props throughout the game. They have 108 machines hard wired throughout their sports book and lounge and also have over 100 hand held devices you can wager with throughout the casino.

Why wait in line or get up when you don’t have to?

It’s a pretty cool feature and a technological advancement that we haven’t seen the likes of being presented or passed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board since the advent of the computerized betting system 20 years ago.

The M Resort and Spa is now taking reservations for the Super Bowl to ensure you get your device.

If looking for a cool place to hang out off the strip, try downtown and visit the Golden Nugget. All the downtown properties are having big parties with ultra-cheap drink specials, but the Golden Nugget is in a category by itself. It still holds the class and style that Steve Wynn instilled in it years ago and they have spent millions in keeping in better shape than many of the decling strip properties who still gouge you.

Go say hello to the Nugget's Tony Miller and Aaron Kessler in their swanky comfortable book and they'll take care of you. The combination of a large variety of betting options, fair mangement, luxury settings, plenty of TV's, and cheap beer make it one of my favorites in Las Vegas.

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NBA vs. Super Bowl Props


Super Bowl XLIV is slowly approaching as the betting windows will be busy over the next few days. Of course there's plenty more to bet on past the side and total between the Saints and Colts. There's even more when you sort through individual player props and how many field goals will be kicked in the game. The cross-sport props make things extra fun for gamblers, as two events are tied into the bet, but studying hard can make you some side cash this weekend. Let's take a look at a handful of cross-sport props involving the NBA, courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook.com.

Colts' points (-3 ½) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6
Saints' points (+1 ½) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6

We'll knock two birds out with one stone here. Bryant is beat-up right now, with several broken fingers on his shooting hand and a sprained ankle. The Lakers travel to Portland on Saturday night, as Bryant is coming off a five-point performance against the Bobcats on Wednesday. In Kobe's last 14 games, the Lakers' all-time leading scorer has tallied 30 points or less on 11 occasions.

The Colts and Saints rank near the top of the NFL in points scored, and neither defense is particularly strong. Indianapolis put up at least 27 points in 11 games, while New Orleans scored over 27 points in 13 contests.

There's never any doubt that Bryant will give all his effort, but his body is not close to 100%. With the grind of the NBA season and the Lakers pretty much in control of the West, Bryant may not be playing as many minutes, thus his scoring numbers may decrease. Also, the Lakers will be playing the second end of a back-to-back following Friday's game against Denver.

I'll 'fade' Bryant in this spot and take each of the Super Bowl teams to outscore the Lakers' star.

Saints/Colts combined points (+1 ½) vs. LeBron James/Kobe Bryant points on 2/6

Pretty much the same rationale applies for this prop, as we add the league's reigning MVP. James and the Cavs host the Knicks on Saturday night, as the King is averaging 27.5 points/game his last eight at home. LeBron usually saves his best games for the Knicks, but that's when they play at Madison Square Garden, and this contest is in Cleveland.

The Saints have played in eight games with a combined total of 59 points or more, and even though the Colts haven't been involved in as many high-scoring contests as New Orleans, that goes to Indianapolis' competition.

The Cavs will likely be favored by double-digits, as Cleveland is expected to roll New York. That may mean a cutback of minutes for James down the stretch. We're assuming if James and Bryant each equal their scoring average, it would be a combined 60 points. If the two stars finish with 50 or even 55 points, it's not asking much for New Orleans and Indianapolis to put together more points than James and Bryant.

Peyton Manning's longest completion (-8 ½) vs. Kevin Durant points vs. GS on 2/6

The beauty of this prop is you have the entire game to cash if you lay the number with Manning. From the opening kickoff until the final whistle, Manning can connect on a pass of any yardage. On the flip side with Durant, the Thunder star won't likely score 50 or 60 points, even if Oklahoma City went overtime with Golden State.

To be safe, let's assume Durant puts up 40 points (he has done so four times this season). Manning would need at least a 49-yard completion in this scenario to cash this prop. The Saints have allowed seven passing plays of at least 49 yards this season, including four that went over 60 yards.



Manning connected with his receivers on twelve plays of at least 35 yards this season, and six plays of at least 48 yards. In Indianapolis' Super Bowl XLII victory over Chicago, Manning and Reggie Wayne hooked up for a 53-yard touchdown strike.

Durant lit up the Warriors last Sunday night for a season-high 45 points, but is averaging 28 ppg in four career games at Oracle Arena in Oakland. The 40-point threshold is almost worst-case scenario, as Durant is likely going to finish in the low-30 range against Golden State.

Facing a defense that has allowed plenty of big plays with the game's best quarterback at the helm makes the play on Manning very enticing.

Kings/Raptors first quarter points (+3 ½) vs. Pierre Garcon receiving yards

Sacramento and Toronto play one of the two Sunday games in the NBA prior to the Super Bowl, as the Raptors and Kings tip off at 12:30 PM EST. This will be the first of three road games for Sacramento, so the early tip may be a factor for a sluggish start.

Both these teams have averaged at least 50 points in the first quarter in their respective home/away roles. Toronto has averaged 51.4 ppg in the first quarter of the last 13 home games, while Sacramento is averaging 50 ppg in the opening quarter of the previous eight road contests.

In Toronto's four early tip-offs at home this season, the average points tallied in the first quarter is 48.7 ppg. Both these defenses aren't exactly stellar, allowing 105 ppg. While the entire game is irrelevant to this bet, it still shows how up-and-down these teams can go in the first quarter.

Garcon is coming off a record-breaking 11 catches in the AFC Championship victory over the Jets, while racking up 151 yards. However, Garcon has only nine games over 50 yards this season. That's important since it's likely the Kings and Raptors will combine for between 50 and 55 points in the first quarter on Sunday. Garcon has the ability to make big plays, but he is also one of four major threats (Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie) that Manning has at his disposal.

I'll take the Kings and Raptors to tally the points in the first quarter, while outdoing Garcon's receiving yardage.

Chris Bosh free throws made (- ½) vs. total touchdowns between Colts and Saints

The Raptors' star ranks sixth in the league in free throws made per game with 6.9. Bosh has been a bit inconsistent with his trips to the line recently, making seven or more free throws only three times the last 11 games. The good thing is if Bosh gets to the line, he'll likely sink the foul shots, converting nearly 79% of the time.

In the 18 games Indianapolis has played, there has been an average of 5.05 touchdowns/game combined. Only three times have the Colts and their opponent totaled eight or more touchdowns.

The Saints started the season on fire with plenty of touchdowns - offensive, defensive, and special teams. New Orleans and its opponents combined to score an average of 7.7 touchdowns the first seven games of the season. However, the last 11 games have seen a significant drop in that department, sinking to 5.8 touchdowns a contest.

Bosh's best free throw numbers come in Sunday's situation against Sacramento. The Kings are struggling mightily as they sit well below .500. When Bosh and the Raptors face a team that is under .500, the All-Star forward averages 7.5 makes from the foul line. In eight day games, Bosh is averaging eight made free throws a game.

I'll side with Bosh on this prop to drill more free throws than combined touchdowns between Indianapolis and New Orleans.

For more cross-sport props, including college basketball, NHL, golf, and soccer, check out Sportsbook.com.

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Super Bowl Prop Bets: Outrageous but true


Super Bowl Sunday is the one day of the year your minister might ask you if the favorite will cover the spread and it's the one day no bookie will ever call in sick for.

The Super Bowl is the only game where every play has action on it. You see, Vegas takes advantage of the gambling holiday by creating as many proposition bets as possible. Prop bets are wagers on outcomes within the game.

Which team will have more first downs? Will there be a kick returned for a touchdown? If you can think of it, chances are, you can bet it.

Jay Kornegay, Executive Director of the Race and Sportsbook at Las Vegas Hilton, and a few accomplices, are credited with changing the landscape of prop betting during the ‘90s.

Only one Super Bowl from 1990-97 was decided by less than double digits and the average margin of victory during that span was 19.6 points. Because of these one-sided games, Kornegay and his crew created ways to keep the games interesting.

“Halfway through the third quarter [bettors] were wandering around, they didn’t have anything to do,” he said. “To keep everybody in their seats we basically expanded the prop menu.”

When the San Francisco 49ers were labeled as 18-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers in the 1995 Super Bowl, Kornegay knew he had a challenge on his hands to keep bettors interested.

“We took it to a new level in 1995,” he said. “There were 30 or 40 props at that time so we doubled it because the game between the 49ers and Chargers was going to be lopsided. We had almost 100 props for that game and it was very well-received. From that point, it just got bigger and bigger every year.”



Kornegay and his brain trust of experts spent weeks producing the prop numbers for this Super Bowl’s lengthy sheet. They started working on them before the conference championships and Kornegay estimates they have somewhere around 430 prop bets on this year’s 24-page menu.

When the multitude of props first began to appear on the Vegas boards, the action was a little slow to come in. Now, Kornegay said they have people come in and bet as much as five figures on a single prop.

“We’ve always said that if you don’t have an opinion on the game itself, come and take a look at our board and we’ll give you one,” joked Kornegay.

Kornegay said bettors have really taken a liking to the cross-sport prop bets in recent years. He and his staff have posted nearly 75 of these props that mix the Super Bowl with sports like the NBA, college basketball, NHL, golf, soccer and NASCAR. One prop the Hilton offers is "Will the Orlando Magic's Dwight Howard have more free throw attempts on Sunday (vs. the Celtics) than the Saints and Colts will combine for first-quarter points?"

The coin toss is also a prop classic. The Hilton is supplying you with almost even money at -101 (risk $101 to win $100) for either heads or tails. But we all know metallic currency has a 50-50 shot of landing on one side or the other and history proves it.

Going into last season’s Super Bowl, 21 heads and 21 tails had turned up. When the Steelers incorrectly called tails, the NFC won its 12th straight coin toss and heads took a 22-21 advantage. So if the law of averages remains constant, this year’s toss will drop a tails.

So much fun with so many props to unwrap, it’s almost like Christmas. Let's muse over a few of the most outrageous prop bets offered for Super Sunday:

Gatorade props

Gatorade is the lifeblood of any athlete. But big game after big game we witness coaches getting doused with the famous sports beverage.

So oddsmakers have come up with a bet-quenching prop that asks: What color will the Gatorade be that sends a chill shock down the spine of the victorious coach?

Yellow is the favorite at less than even money with “clear” or water coming in second at 8/5. Orange is posted at 11/2, lime green at 6/1 and we round out the odds with blue and red at 25/2.

Wait…aren’t lime green and yellow the same flavor?

But the Gatorade prop drenching doesn’t stop there. You can even attempt to predict whether defensive or offensive players will do the pouring.

This one likely depends on who is on the field at game’s end. If the offense is taking a knee, the shower will most certainly come from the defensive personnel who are listed at -165 (offense +135).

If this guy makes the trip down to Miami, he might be the favorite.

Celebrity props

Celebs can always be seen in the primo suites on Super Sunday and the books have delivered some odds on how many times the director in the production truck will cut to them.

Two sports figures that are sure to be there are Archie and Eli Manning. Oddsmakers have given the patriarchal Manning an over/under appearance number of 4 and Eli a total of 3.

These shots have to be live so those cute pics of the Manning boys in their football jerseys when they were six and 10 won’t count.

But what’s interesting about this prop is that the father and son could be sitting in close proximity to each other. If that’s the case, then the smart money would be on Eli because every pan to the Manning booth would likely show both.

Kim Kardashian, who boasts Saints all-purpose back Reggie Bush as her beau, has been given an appearance total of 2.5.

But the books have gone a few sizes extra with her prop options. They have asked bettors: If the Saints win the Super Bowl will Bush and Kardashian be engaged by July 31, 2010?

The answer of “NO” is the popular choice with odds of -170. Come on now, it’s a match made in Hollywood.

And you can even wager on what color top the goddess will be wearing at the big game. Black is the favorite at 5/6, white comes in at 53/20 and any other color is 6/5.

Can’t she just throw on a pink No. 25 jersey? Oh wait, that didn’t work out too well for Jessica Simpson.

Halftime props

Iconic British rock band, The Who, is performing during this year’s Super Bowl halftime show. Let's just hope there isn't some sort of wardrobe malfunction.

During the band’s early years, The Who became the godfathers of on stage musical instrument destruction. After Pete Townsend accidentally broke the head of his guitar against a low ceiling during a 1964 show, he shattered the instrument in frustration, and the rest is history.

Propmakers have parlayed that act of theatrical chaos into a halftime betting opportunity. They ask: Will a member of The Who smash a guitar on stage during the halftime show? Books assume the band has mellowed in their later years with the answer of “YES” getting +155 odds.

The second halftime prop featuring The Who stems from the first stating: If a member of the band smashes a guitar what will the guitar hit first? A fan is the funniest option available (lawsuit waiting to happen) and most profitable at 200/1 with the floor (1/4) going off as the favorite, followed by the speaker (7/2), microphone (9/2) and drummer (200/1).

Townsend was not only known for the six-string smashing technique but also his signature windmill move. So the prop gods want you to guess how many times Townsend will perform his legendary windmill strum. The total is set at 5.5 with the over (-175) taking the majority of action.

At the ripe age of 64 is Townsend still flexible enough to make the full rotation six times? Can you say torn rotator cuff?

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LAS VEGAS – You don’t have to travel far off the Strip to be light years from the Strip.

A drive east on Tropicana Boulevard brings you past an array of business that range from 7-11 convenience stores to palm readers to places where, for a not-so-small fee, locals can cash their paychecks. Condos and apartment buildings, plucked down into the sand, are everywhere, and they are all in beautiful colors as long as you like beige.

After 15 of 20 traffic lights you will eventually reach Boulder Highway, home to tiny grind joints like the Longhorn, moderate-sized casinos like Arizona Charlie’s, and the ever present Sam’s Town.

Sam’s is to locals what the Strip mega-casinos are to tourists, and it’s also home to one of the best sportsbooks in the city.

“We’re not going to get the high rollers in here,” says engaging sportsbook manager Jack Schneider. “We know what we are. But that doesn’t diminish the excitement that occurs here on Super Bowl Sunday.”

What occurs is a swarm of thousands of Las Vegas-area bettors, some of whom are placing bets for the first time in their lives, just because it’s the Super Bowl. It’s a scene that is replicated at every casino in the city. Hours before the start of the game, players seek out seats, and the lines to place bets are sometimes hundreds deep.

Schneider started in the casino business in the 1990s, punching tickets, and was hooked almost immediately. He landed a job at the Bellagio as a supervisor, then became the boss at Sam’s Town, which is literally 15 miles from the Bellagio but figuratively a lot further. Bellagio has Olives; Sam’s has a food court with a McDonald’s.

Sam’s Town caters to an older crowd (out-of-towners are not flown in at casino expense; they arrive in their own RVs and put roots down in the Sam’s special parking lot), but everyone from the cashiers to the blackjack dealers to the sportsbook workers seem to enjoy their jobs. Even notoriously grumpy and suspicious pit bosses go about their jobs with smiles.

Schneider, who may be the busiest man in the casino during Super Bowl week, always finds the time to patiently explain the difference between betting the point spread and betting the money line to novice customers.

“Sometimes it does get a little frustrating,” says Schneider. “It would be great if everyone coming to the window could educate themselves a bit before they bet, but that’s the nature of the business and we appreciate everyone’s business.”

Even if that business is proportionally quite a bit smaller than what the big boys at the Mirage, Caesars and Hilton will be doing come Super Bowl weekend. Schneider points out that the largest bet he took at the Bellagio was $55,000; at Sam’s the biggest single wager was $10,000.

Much of Sam’s non-Super Bowl bets come in the form of parlays. “It’s the one way,” says Schneider, “that someone with not a lot of money can make a decent score.”

Stupak’s million-dollar bet

Every year around Super Bowl time the question is asked about the largest single wager ever made on the game, and that in turn conjures memories of the one and only Vegas legend Bob Stupak.

Stupak, a self-promoter in a town that is chock full of them, is credited with moving the Strip a quarter-mile to the North when he built the Stratosphere in the mid-1990s.
The story goes that in 1989 Stupak bet $1 million at the now-defunct Churchill Downs book (now the site of Planet Hollywood), taking the Bengals and 7 against San Francisco in Super Bowl XXIII.

The 49ers won, but the final was 20-16 and Stupak reportedly had his $1 million, minus the vig. The legend lives, but many locals in the business feel that Stupak may have hedged his bets, though there is no proof.

Little line movement

As of late Wednesday the line was holding in most books at Indianapolis -5.5, but Mirage properties (MGM, Mandalay Bay, NY/NY etc) were also holding firm at 5.

Maybe it was the bad shrimp at the buffet

President Obama’s advice to families about the virtues of saving money rather than “blowing it” on trips to Vegas makes perfect sense, but it’s driving the locals – whose livelihoods depend on tourists – over the edge.

“(Las Vegas Mayor Oscar) Goodman said we lost $350 million in business the last time Obama talked about not coming here for conventions,” said one taxi driver. “We have to eat, too.”

Local newspapers are reporting that Goodman plans to give the president an earful when Obama visits Vegas in a few weeks.

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Super Bowl XLIV weather report: No rain on Sunday

There is rain in the forecast for the greater Miami area this weekend, but it should stop sometime Saturday and allow Super Bowl XLIV to be a dry affair.

The long-range forecast calls for clouds moving in Friday, with rain in the evening - likely well after the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints holds their final practices - and thundershowers overnight.

The rain will continue into Saturday morning, when the teams will conduct final walkthroughs, but stop by midday. No more precipitation is scheduled for the area until Wednesday.

Temperatures will be in the 50s on Saturday night, move into the 60s during Sunday and back into the 50s for gametime, helping to dry the field and create good conditions for a pair of teams that rely on players with quick bursts of speed such as Reggie Wayne and Reggie Bush.

Oddsmakers have Super Bowl's total as high as 57 points heading into the weekend. The Colts are currently 4.5-point favorites.

The last time the Colts were in the Super Bowl was three years ago, when the game was also in Miami, and played in a steady rain for the first time in history. The weather did not seem to significantly impact the Colts, who amassed 430 total yards in a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears that just played under the 47-point total.

Super Bowl VIII between the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings at Rice Stadium in Houston had some intermittent drizzle but no heavy rain.

Outdoor games are not common for either the Colts or Saints, both of whom play their home games in climate-controlled domes. However, both teams won games at Miami during the regular season.

In Week 2, the Colts had the ball for less than 15 minutes but made the most of it and Peyton Manning hit a pair of long touchdown passes in a 27-23 win over the Dolphins as 3-point favorites in a Monday night game.

In Week 7, the Saints dug themselves a 24-3 hole in the second quarter but stormed back for a 46-34 win over the Dolphins as 6-point favorites in a late afternoon Sunday game, overcoming a season-high three interceptions by Drew Brees.

The Colts played just five outdoor games during the season, with road contests at Arizona, St. Louis and Houston. They won and covered the first four before resting their regulars for most of a 30-7 loss at Buffalo in the regular-seaosn finale.

It was 12 degrees for the game in Buffalo but at least 56 degrees for each of their other outdoor contests.

The Saints also played six outdoor games, with two of their road contests at domes in St. Louis and Atlanta. They were 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread, escaping with a 33-30 win at Washington as 9-point favorites in Week 13 and losing 23-10 at Carolina as 10-point underdogs in Week 17, when they also rested their starters.

It was 36 degrees for the game in Washington and 30 degrees for the contest in Carolina. All of their other road games were at least 64 degrees.

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BETWEEN THE LINES - PROP BETS
DREW BREES TO PASS FOR MORE YARDS IN THE SECOND HALF THAN FIRST

Conventional thinking has the Colts ahead, leaving the Saints to play catch-up in the second half.

REGGIE BUSH TO HAVE MORE THAN 281/2 yards receiving

Bush can get this prop with one catch. He averages 11 touches a game, and expect more than that.

PIERRE GARCON MORE THAN 581/2 yards receiving

Garcon is usually a downfield threat, and if the Saints key on Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he will have one-on-one coverage and should break off at least one long one.

LONGEST FIELD GOAL MORE THAN 421/2 YARDS

Both field goal kickers have strong legs and should have a couple of chances to win this prop.

TOTAL PASS ATTEMPTS BY PEYTON MANNING MORE THAN 371/2

The Colts have little or no run game and will be passing all game long.

PIERRE THOMAS MORE THAN 121/2 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Thomas is the main person in the Saints' rushing attack. He will get plenty of carries if they try to keep Manning off the field.

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Super Bowl betting capsule
Time: 3:25 p.m. Line: Colts -5 Total: 561/2

TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

• WEATHER: Mid-70s, 20 percent chance of rain

• FACTS: New Orleans failed to cover against Minnesota two weeks ago despite a plus-4 turnover edge. In all other games the past two seasons in which a team had such a positive margin, clubs were 33-0 against the line (straight up, too). ... Indianapolis and QB Peyton Manning rallied from an 11-point deficit in the AFC title game against the Jets to win, 30-17. The only team that went on to win the Super Bowl that crawled out of a deeper hole was Washington in the January 1988 divisional round, when it came back from 14-0 in Chicago to beat the Bears, 21-17. ... If games were to end after one quarter, the Saints' record their past 13 games would be 2-9-2. The Colts, meanwhile, have trailed after one period four times all season. ... The Vikings fumbled six times against the Saints in the NFC title game, tied for third most in league postseason history. ... New Orleans' defense, ranked 25th in the league, was on the field for 82 plays that game (none in overtime), the sixth most for any team all season. The Saints ran only 55 plays, a differential of 27. The greatest gap in a game this season was 49 when Miami ran 84 plays and Indianapolis 35 in Week 2, but the Colts won anyway, 27-23. ... Those 35 plays run by the Colts are the fewest by a team since Oakland had 34 in a 24-0 loss to Atlanta in Week 9 last season. ... The last time the Saints played in Miami, in Week 7, they rallied from 21 points down to win 46-34, matching the greatest comeback in team history. ... New Orleans had seven three-and-outs against Minnesota, four more than it had in any of the other 16 games Drew Brees started at QB. ... Scott Green will be the referee. He worked one victory apiece for New Orleans and Indianapolis, including the Colts' bizarre triumph over New England in which the Patriots were foiled on that controversial fourth-down try in the waning minutes. ... The Saints were outgained by 218 yards against Minnesota, the greatest negative discrepancy for a winning team in postseason history, according to the Elias folks. ... In half of Indianapolis' 14 regular-season victories, it overcame a fourth-quarter deficit to prevail. In each game, the Colts were favored, including by 121/2 points over San Francisco in an 18-14 home triumph. ... The Saints have scored TDs on eight opening drives this season, the most in the league. Indy has seven. On the other hand, New Orleans has yielded a first-possession touchdown in nine of its past 12 games. That stretch not only is the worst for any team this year but the lousiest for anyone the past six seasons. ... The league says the Super Bowl will be "distributed" to 185 foreign countries. Who's not getting it? WorldAlmanac.com says only 193 countries are in the world, give or take a couple. ... Brees is the league's top-rated passer. The last time such a No. 1 QB won the Super Bowl was Peyton Manning three seasons ago. ... The Tampa Bay curse: No team that has lost to the Buccaneers during the regular season has gone on to win that year's Super Bowl. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay in Week 16, 20-17 in OT. In a reverse twist, in 2002, when the Bucs won the title, they were two-time losers to the Saints. ... No team in the league defeated both the Saints and Colts this season. In 1979, however, San Diego had the most dominant performances against Super combatants, beating the Los Angeles Rams 40-16 and eventual world champion Pittsburgh, 35-7. ... New Orleans is 4-for-4 scoring touchdowns when starting a drive in enemy territory in the postseason. Indianapolis is 0-for-1 in such possessions. In the regular season, however, New Orleans had only five short touchdown marches. ... Now that New Orleans finally has reached the Big Game, only four existing franchises haven't -- the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions. Detroit, though, did win three NFL titles in the 1950s. ... During the regular season, New Orleans outgained foes by 46 yards a game, better than the Colts' plus-23.9 edge. Over the past eight Super Bowls, the team with the better differential has gone 3-5. But in the 20 years before that, they were 16-4.

• ANALYSIS: Judging by the over/under number of 561/2, matching the season high for any game this season (New Orleans-Arizona three weeks ago) and also the greatest for any Super Bowl, it's sure to be a high-scoring game. Then again, if Manning goes down early, the 100-1 odds that Indianapolis will get shut out seems attractive.

Anyway, both squads have QBs who are among the most accurate in history and an outstanding fleet of receivers, but it's the running games that separate the teams.

The Colts ground game had the worst output in the league at 80.9 yards a game in the regular season, and it was less productive in the playoffs. And since the Saints have shown in the past they can shut down premier backs (Adrian Peterson had 32 yards on 21 carries last season), Indy's ground game doesn't pose near the challenge behind Joseph Addai, who hasn't shown giddy-up in his stride.

That's the Saints' edge, with Reggie Bush, hungry for a new contract, being an all-purpose threat and with the power running of Pierre Thomas (5.4 yards per carry) and Mike Bell. And if the Saints can come close to having a ball-control offense, the presence of standout Colts DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (questionable, ankle) will be lessened.

The key for New Orleans is to not fall behind quickly, as is its custom, and to have strong safety play in the secondary to try to befuddle Manning, who has a tendency to lose track of aggressive defenders.

If the Saints win the toss, the ball should get rolling in their direction. And if that happens, Louisiana had better mobilize the National Guard to protect New Orleans again.

• FORECAST: Saints 26, Colts 21

• RECORD: Conference title games: 1-1 vs. spread; 2-0 straight up

Season total: 125-133-8 vs. spread; 160-106 straight up

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Super Bowl XLIV – Explaining the Betting Possibilities

The day has arrived, oh sure there will be a great deal of chatter, heart-warming stories and a blast from the past (which includes The Who), looking at the history of the game itself still to come before kickoff of No. 44, however for the most part, it is window dressing to prepare for party you are hosting or attending. The biggest question on every bettors mind besides the $10 prop bet on the coin toss is who wins and covers? For your reading pleasure, here are the definitive answers to those questions.

Indianapolis wins and covers IF Peyton Manning has time to throw the ball. Manning’s work ethic and attention to detail is well documented and given time, will pick apart any defense. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark were quiet in AFC Championship game, as New York had the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and game-planned to take away Clark, forcing Manning to look elsewhere, which he expertly did. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are two good corners, just not in the same area code as Revis. With DC Gregg Williams expected to blitz heavily (though don’t be surprised if they rush three and have eight in coverage more than believed with all the posturing), Manning will look to hot receiver and deliver.

The Colts don’t have to run a great deal, just meet their 23 attempts per game, to give New Orleans something to look at. As long as Indianapolis averages 3.7 or more per carry, that keeps them on balance for all down and distance situations.

Defensively, the Colts have to play their game. That means rushing Drew Brees to make one read and throw the ball, not allowing him time to survey the field and pick out a receiver for a bigger play. Indianapolis has to be stout in the middle, as this is where the Saints prefer to run. That would mean the names Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt are spoken frequently.

Indianapolis wins, but does not cover IF the Saints cover a few different aspects. Look for New Orleans to use various packages that include five and six defense backs, depending on down and distance. Coach Williams will entrust the underrated Greer can at least prevent Wayne from having big game and will use a corner to cover Clark, to nullify his speed and hope he can get underneath with safety help over the top. DT Sedrick Ellis has to be dynamic to shut down Colts running game to three or less yards a pop (something the Saints have seldom done) and be the key guy in creating pressure into Manning’s face up the gut.

A big factor will be the health of Dwight Freeney. He is Indy’s one true difference maker on defense and if he is at 50 percent or less or can’t go much beyond the second quarter, a big edge goes to Brees and offense, since they won’t need to double Freeney, putting another receiver out into the pattern or used as safety valve. The Indianapolis corners are beatable and given time, Brees could have big day passing.

New Orleans is money line play IF they are the more physical team. That starts up front on offense and carries over to front seven on defense. The Saints can create a push with the trio of center Jonathan Goodwin and guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. If this threesome starts punching holes in the Colts middle and Brackett is making tackles five yards down field, head coach Sean Payton will be smiling and working his play sheet feverishly. Pierre Thomas is punishing downhill runner and Reggie Bush has been more physical, still having big play potential. A running game leaves Brees with countless possibilities in the passing game, short and long and if head coach Jim Caldwell wants to dial up blitzes, no problem for Brees to go highly effective screen game. The Saints will not be discouraged if they fall behind, as they have had a number of come from behind victories.

The Saints defense is maligned and justifiably so, ranking 25th during the regular season and being ripped by Minnesota for 475 yards in NFC title tilt. However, ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner how much they enjoyed being hit by New Orleans blitzers, enough to where both will likely retire having faced them in last game ever. (OK, overstating the point but a great trivia question in future years) The beauty of a one game finale is coach Williams defense has less pressure, as what their real mission is to give up fewer points than what their team’s offense scores and who cares if Manning passes for 500 yards, as long as they win. As has been the case all year, the defense has to be opportunistic and create turnovers, likely at least three. New Orleans has forced 46 takeaways this season in 18 games and will have a few defensive wrinkles Manning has not seen and has to hope they can keep the Colts in from of them. If this plan is completed, Who Dat will mean Super Bowl champions.

Which way does the total go? Most experts are figuring a shootout with the two premier quarterbacks this season; each is well-armed with a myriad of weapons and defenses that have as many questions as answers. Nerves and the feeling out process plays a big role in the first quarter, as 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points in the opening 15 minutes, with seven of those being 3-0 or no score. Typically, once the players and coaches have made adjustments, the offenses start to sizzle. Given the circumstances and how these offenses can perform, points in the final 45 minutes should add up quickly.

Sportsbook.com has Indianapolis as five-point favorite with total of 56.5. Enjoy the game.

[illuminati]

Saints, Colts ready for battle
February 7, 2010
By SBGGlobal.com

Super Bowl XLIV
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 6:25 pm Eastern – CBS



A high scoring game is expected on Sunday when the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts meet in Super Bowl XLIV Odds. The Saints had the top-ranked offense in the NFL this season led by Drew Brees while the Colts have perhaps the best quarterback in the game in Peyton Manning. Oddsmakers seem to think there will be a lot of scoring as the total is the highest in Super Bowl history.



Indianapolis is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5 at SBG Global.



Indianapolis will be trying to win their second Super Bowl title in the last four years while it will be the first-ever Super Bowl for the Saints. The Saints may not have the experience edge but they do have Brees who led the NFL with a 109.8 passer rating this season. He threw for 4,388 yards and led the league with 34 touchdown passes and the Saints led the league at 31.9 points per game. The Colts were seventh, averaging 26 points per game. "You understand just how explosive their offense can be," Manning said. "I think you have to be careful trying to get out of your rhythm in order to keep up with them. You still have to go play offense the way we have played all year, trying to be efficient. We have been excellent on third down, been good in the red zone. Those things will be important this year." Manning was second in the league with 4,500 yards and 33 TD passes. He has been virtually flawless in the NFL betting playoffs this season with a 104.6 passer rating, throwing five TDs and only one interception.






Much of the attention this past week has been on Indianapolis defensive end Dwight Freeney’s ankle. He could play but won’t be at full strength.

"I think he'll be back and playing third downs. And I think he'll be effective, until I see something different," said Raheem Brock. The Colts have the defensive edge in this game as they were eighth in the league allowing 19.2 points per game while the Saints were 20th, allowing 21.3 points per game.



The Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five NFL betting games as an underdog. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.



The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite. The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff games.



The ‘over’ is 5-0-1 in the Saints last six playoff games. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the Colts last six games overall.

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BETWEEN THE LINES
THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE COLTS (-5) OVER THE SAINTS

The game boils down to Peyton Manning and his ability to break down a defense. He torched the Jets and will torch the Saints.

Except for a porous Cardinals defense, the Saints have had trouble scoring and will not be able to keep up with the Colts.

The Saints will try to blitz, as they did to Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. If they do, they will pay for it.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE SAINTS-COLTS UNDER (57)

This is a tough number because both teams can score, but the Saints have been sputtering lately.

If the Colts have a lead in the second half, Manning will kill the clock with long drives.

With the emphasis on the offenses, watch one of the defenses step up.

TWO WEEKS AGO: 1-1

SEASON: 18-24-2

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CLASSIC OR DUD?: Saints figure to get physical but most favor Colts

But most side with Manning, Colts to win

By BRIAN BLESSING
SPECIAL TO THE LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

The two-week Super Bowl hype-fest mercifully has come to an end. The top two seeds, the Indianapolis Colts from the AFC and New Orleans Saints from the NFC, will settle the issue today in Miami.

The Saints didn't play their best in the NFC Championship Game, but they still found a way to win, which is the calling card of a high-quality team.

The Colts, while disposing of Baltimore and the New York Jets, were pressed in both postseason games.

After early money on Indianapolis surfaced around Las Vegas, the line has settled in with the Colts as 5-point favorites, and the total is around 57.

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney's injured right ankle has been a major pregame talking point. He'll likely play on a limited basis, and the impact he'll have in the game is anyone's guess.

Indianapolis won a number of tight games throughout the season, a further testament to quarterback Peyton Manning's leadership in pressure situations.

Many perceive the Saints to be a finesse team that has to take care of business through the air. Don't be fooled. New Orleans can play a physical brand of football. As much as Minnesota gave away a Super Bowl appearance, the Saints created many of those opportunities that punched their ticket.

In this matchup, the points look attractive, and New Orleans might be able to secure a title in its first appearance on the NFL's biggest stage. Will this year's edition be a classic or a dud? We'll know soon enough. I'm anticipating an entertaining event.

Teams with Super Bowl experience have fared extremely well over the years, which is an advantage for the Colts. I think the Saints might have gotten the jittery kinks out of their system against the Vikings.

Manning and Drew Brees should put on a show, with the San Diego Chargers castoff having the last laugh. I'll go with New Orleans, 27-24, and under the total is my strongest opinion.

Everyone seems to be expecting an aerial show, but the Saints could find success on the ground, and if Freeney is a nonfactor, Manning might opt to keep Brees off the field with lengthy, time-consuming drives.

Let's take a trip around town for opinions from various sports book directors and one oddsmaker:

• Mike Colbert, M Resort, Saints 28-24

The Indianapolis defense might get exposed. The Colts got the best of the Jets and Ravens, but those offenses pale in comparison to what they will face today. The Saints will be able to move the ball at will.

• Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton, Colts 34-21

Two great offenses will be on the field, but the Colts' defense ultimately might be the difference-maker. Other than the game against Arizona, which had a defense that couldn't stop Bo Peep, New Orleans has struggled offensively down the stretch.

• Art Manteris, Station Casinos, Colts 38-35

The injury to Freeney and issues at cornerback for the Colts should open up the passing game for the Saints. If Brees gets comfortable in the pocket, he will find his weapons. If it's the high-scoring, close game I'm anticipating, it would be difficult to bet against Manning finding a way to get the win.

• Tony Miller, Golden Nugget, Colts 34-31

This game comes down to the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, and the edge has to go to Manning. The Saints offense keeps them in the hunt, but I'll say Manning drives the Colts down the field and they win on a field goal on the final play.

• Jay Rood, MGM Mirage, Colts 24-21

I look for a lower-scoring game than most people. These two defensive units aren't getting the respect they deserve. I'm inclined to believe the Colts, as they have all season, will find a way to get it done.

• Bob Scucci, Boyd Gaming, Colts 27-21

Manning has looked as impressive as any quarterback has looked heading into a Super Bowl. I'm especially impressed with the way he figured out a great Jets defense in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints might experience first-half jitters. Eventually, they'll settle down, but it might come back to haunt them by game's end.

• Ken White, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Colts 35-31

If this game is played on a fast track, I look forward to plenty of scoring. Freeney's ankle injury leads me to believe Brees will have many opportunities to swing for the fence. But, in the end, the Colts' Super Bowl experience of 2007 ultimately will help them prevail.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.

[illuminati]

Super Bowl betting odds: Books detail action, predict final lines

Super Bowl calls for a super-sized action report. We called around offshore and in Vegas to find out where the pointspread and total will land by kickoff. Make sure to check out our NFL live odds page to find the current numbers.

Senior oddsmaker Jeff Stoneback fills us in on what’s happening at the MGM Mirage:

Opening pointspread and total: 3.5, 55.5

Friday afternoon line: 5, 57

Comments: Our pointspread was immediately bet up to 4.5 after opening at 3.5. I think the line will close at 4.5 with the total as high as 58 by kickoff.

Preferred prop: Player to score the first TD is the MGM’s most popular prop with Colts wideout Pierre Garcon receiving the most action.



Opening pointspread and total: 4, 56.5

Friday afternoon line: 4.5, 57

Comments: We were at 5.5 all week and I was certain that we'd be going to 6 at some point and would likely close 6.5. But then news broke on Colts DE Dwight Freeney. That definitely slowed down the action on the Colts. I think we’ll close at 5 or 5.5, but not as high as 6.

Preferred prop: Coin toss. Our bettors love this prop and it gives bettors action before the game even starts. It's also the cheapest bet on the board. Whichever side you bet, you're only laying a penny. Head's -1.01 and Tails is -1.01.

Jimmy Vaccaro makes the lines at Lucky’s Sportsbook:

Opening pointspread and total: 4, 56.5

Friday afternoon line: 5, 57

Comments: I think the over will close as high as 58 or 58.5. Just about all of our parlays are tied to the over. I think we’ll also see some more Colts money coming in with the line closing around 6.
Preferred prop: We’re going to be rooting for a missed field goal. We opened the bet with “yes to a missed field goal” paying -180 but we’ve got it down to -150 now because of all the action on the “no.”

Richard Gardner is the head oddsmaker with Bodog.com:

Opening line: Indianapolis -6.5 (-105)

Movement: Early money was on Indianapolis moving line to -6 -110 and then -6 -115. Then word of the Dwight Freeney injury so moved line back to -6 -105 and currently bets have been coming in on New Orleans pushing line back to -6 Even. The current line is still drawing a little more Saints money but still exposed on the Colts from the early money.
Percentage of action: Public 59 percent on Indianapolis, but sharps 54 percent on New Orleans

Moneyline: Fifty seven percent on New Orleans (+160)

Total: Seventy percent of public action on the over at 57 (opened at 56.5)

Sharp action: On adjusted line New Orleans -3.5 with a +250 payout.

Most popular prop: Coin toss with majority of folks on heads same as last year although by game time expect it to be black and black (follows the same pattern every year).

Fun prop getting the most handle: How many times will Pete Townshend do his legendary windmill move during half time show opened at 5 and was bet heavy on the over and was moved to 5.5

Jay Kornegay is the Executive Director Race & Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton

Opening line: 4.5, 56

Friday afternoon line: 5, 56.5

Comments: We opened -4.5 where most of the town opened -3.5 or -4. The light action took the game to -5.5 in a few days where it stayed for most of the time until this past Monday with all the news surrounding Freeney. These news reports made most of the action come in on the Saints which drove the like to -4.5 and -5 around town. We’re getting good two-way action at Colts -5. I see the total going higher than 56.5 by the time we close.

[illuminati]

Super Bowl betting odds climbing offshore and in Vegas

Underdog and under bettors woke up a little happier this morning. The Super Bowl’s pointspread and over/under line are both growing leading up to this evening’s kick off.

Almost every major sportsbook is dealing Colts -5 or higher as of Sunday morning. In Vegas, the Hilton, Mirage, Planet Hollywood and Harrah’s properties are all dealing 5.5 while the Hard Rock is offering 6.

Offshore, only Pinnacle and 5Dimes are using 4.5 while BookMaker and SportsInteraction are at 5.5. Every other major offshore book is at 5 with the exception of Bodog and Sportsbetting, who are both dealing 6.

The number books first to post a Super Bowl pointspread two weeks ago was Indianapolis Colts -3.5 or -4 points.

That number was immediately bet up to 5 and climbed as high as 6 shortly before the Pro Bowl. The line started moving towards the Saints after more news came out on Colts' All-Pro DE Dwight Freeney.

The line bottomed at 4.5 before beginning its lift late last night.

Meanwhile, the total sits at 57 just about everywhere with a few 57.5s on the board (Hard Rock and SIA). The over/under had been sitting tight at 56.5 and 57 for most of last week.

Several saidon Friday afternoon that they thought the total would close at 58 or 58.5.

Make sure to check our NFL live odds page to keep up with the Super Bowl pointspread and total.