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01-05-2012, 09:16 PM
Predictions 2011 recap and 2012
updated comments are in brackets.
1. oil is going higher, if the economy slowly grows then oil should do just fine, there is a good list of oil companies that are great as long as oil stays above 80.
oil is at 91 and should head higher along with a growing economy though slowly, and concern over the us and euro.
Correct (oil went up and down but at the end of the year was at $100, so this worked out well, the supply is limited. so as long as the economy limps forward oil stays high)
my biggest position is cnq canadian natural resources avg. cost high 30s 35-37cdn. now at 44.. if oil stays here cnq should make 15-20%
(Wrong: CNQ had an accident and over half the year their oil sand project was off line, it happened in March, but at the end did not effect the stock that much, CNQ, Cenvous, Suncor did nothing this year, these stocks are cheap and have rallied since early december, CNQ 39.33 cdn. 38.64US it is cheap. but most oil sands plays are.)
2. natutal gas has lagged and is not as good however at 4.50 like it to go higher and move up with oil....should hold at 4, and over time go to 5.50 - 6.
(Wrong: Many companies cannot produce natural gas, not a raging bull on nat gas, but at below $4. most are losing money producing, also a mild winter has not been good, this is not rally in the near future.)
3. gold last year thought it would be in a range of 900-1200 and liked the sector though was always scared of a correction...and did not think it would hit 1400 but qe2 sealed that.....
not a gold bug but would have some exposure to the sector, it is doing well.
(correct: okay did not give a target, but the sector has done okay, odd that gold has performed much better than the sr. gold companies. gold companies will do fine, and will still have holdings in gold)
4. as I wirte this believe the US economy will grow at 2-4%, and unemployment will decline but slowly, so the world wide economy should do fine, and the emerging markets will double the performance from the US and europe.
(wrong/correct : the US did have growth but it was less that 2% for most of the year, and 4% was to high, should have said 1-3%, the world wide economy did experience growth but much smaller, also emerging markets growth is much higher than the US and especially eurpope which was basically flat to negative, depends on the nation.)
5. cdn. dollar goes to par and above, the fiscal situration is better, and if world markets hit silly season then people will not run to the US dollar. Cdn. dollar is a play on the resources, the cdn. dollar goes to 1.05, the only thing that may stop this is an election, which if it happen probably happen in the spring.
(Correct : the dollar went above par and 1.05 was basically the high, 1.04 and change, believe it was there for a day, the election did happen and the conservatives won a majority, ndp opposition, and liberals were destoryed, but they will come back...)
6. here is a list of things that might blow up worldwide economy not counting war, terrorism, the usual.
a elections in germany at the state level and large losses by the ruling party.
b portugal blows up.
c greece see b
d spain see b and c, actually they are in better shape and only about 30-40% chance this happens but if it does, much worse than b+C, much worse.
(Correct : Europe is a mess, even more than I thought but it did not absolutely disappear, or was not destroyed. see 2012 predictions)
7. the US can kick the debt problem down the road for some time years and years, and years, as long as the economy grows they will have time to fix the problems....if the economy were to contract by -5% then it wiould be big problems that would have to be faced.....this does not happen....not fun if it does...
(correct: no real movement on the US debt problem and it is pushed down the road, until they have to face up to the probelm.)
1. trp 37.99cdn.
transcanada trades in the us and canada talked about it for quite some time, yields 4.21%
july 36 1.03 1.13P
july 38 1.81 1.98 p
july 38 1.55call
so would just hold it as a buy and hold but the top two are options so the person would pay you 1.03 to 1.13 to sell you trp at 36 cdn. or high for a 38.
the july 38 is a covered call and should beat the bonds, on a shorter term, which get you less than 2%.
note trp stays flat or goes down if we enter into silly season and you will have a great chance to buy...
(Correct : this trade basically worked, and is nice and confusing, the covered calls or puts worked nice on the stock throughout the year the low was 36.10 cdn. and closed at 43.95 today,
anways if you just bought and sold just under a 20% gain counting div...and that works out just fine.
any pipeline worked out enb, did miss out on the smaller pipelines only had small positions, but these did 25-40%., should have seen that coming.)
2. afl 56.43 2.14% yield
I am buying the duck, more later, some things concern me with this play but I like the small yield and cheap valuation...small play.
WRONG 44.86 hit a low of 31.25 the Japaneese natural disaster killed the stock, it still is cheap.
counting div loss -19.18%
3. nick 10.24
hope this has 15-20% in this stock, like the stock still and the valuation, note: this is higher risk reward, still, US financials have higher risk and higher reward than cdn. banks.
(Correct : 12.85 this returned over 28% counting the div., should point out that was first selected in 2010 at 6.95. will stick with it, yes scares me, and will take some off the table but still like it, note: 20% stop loss. but will hopefully have this for a while....)
4. CBR 20.80 bought currently at 22.87
trades on toronto, is the claymore broad commodity etf, .80% believe this might be a good way to play commodities without the equtiy risk.
will talk about this more going forward.
looking for 10-15% with large amount of volatility, long term holding.
(---- basically did better than the market, was flat but thats it, hit a high of 27 but went to 22.24 and closed at 22.72 for a slight loss 0.6%, should have played something better for resources.)
5. CNQ 44.35
trades in Canada and the US, this a is large oil sands play, and is a large holding for me in the mid high 30s, like the company, and at 90 oil this will have great cash flow.
aug 48 call 2.31 2.46
have covered calls most are shorter but put this one because on of the longer ones in the predition thread.
(-5.25% if you count the money from the option that expired worthless and the small div, lost 5.25%, they were down for over half the year, the stock is decent value.)
6. facebook goes public near the end of 2011, but probably in 2012, along with groupon, silly season may start and these are the sign and the valuations, especially groupon. the better they do....the better prices you will get on great boring div stocks....
(Facebook will try to go public in 2012 and groupon, silly season was short this year, by the way group on is a train wreck, stay clear.......)
7. if you are in long term bonds and preferred prep,.....reduce....rates are going to start going up slowy.
maybe more later...
(Wrong : rates went down, did not think they would rise rapidly, well some debt in the world went up but in Cdn. and the US rates went down., the advice was correct though be careful of long term debt, stay to the short term rates.)
(not bad the stocks had a good return biggest winner nick, biggest loss afl, also TRP was a good winner. on avearage the stock were up, so not a bad year....dumbest move was thinking nat gas, and rates would go up. most of the rest worked out.)
01-06-2012, 09:32 AM
1.Europe is in the air, so is Japan, questions will come from China growth, India, and Russia, US election year, will not be boring, have cash on hand. Does Europe go flat or -5 (or greater) will make a big difference on China, and the US.
In US the economic news is getting better but there is Europe, and Japan has debt issues also when they stirke, who knows. Have cash and buy a short term etf in Canada, going to add cbo (1-5 corporate to the portfolio. Would underweight high rate debt and long term debt, in 2012.
2.The Keystone pipeline gets the go ahead in 2012, 2013, okay it has taken 40 months, and was still delayed, I mean someday this will be built. TRP should have handled it better however this shows how difficult it is to start any billion dollar project...this is a pipeline that would secure US energy for decade, and decades, and decades, ect
3. Oil is in a range 80-110, for the most part 85-100, oil would go on a run, but there will be continuing conditions on the world wide economy so depressed the value.
4. The cdn. Dollar does not reach 1.05 will trade at .94-1, when people are worried they run to the US dollar, and cdn. Dollar is seen a resource backed so would weaken. .94-1 still not bad.
5. Gold stays below 2000, trades in a range 1400-1800 for the most part. And stays there.
6. Gold stocks stay at low valuations, they are worth owning but would sell covered calls agasint them, premiums are average to very good, and will help greatly with the returns, and the stocks will be you guessed it range bound....it is hard, very hard just to replace production, look at the list of 5+ million ounce mines coming on stream, small list, and getting smaller as time goes by.
7. Far more mergers in the resource sector, gold oil/gas, you can buy production cheaper on the market than by exploration. In some cases not close.
8. Grpn have stated this before around $20, now 17.65, and believe this is a train wreck, avoid, avoid. Not may have some positions that benefit from the stock going down, so yes I am biased. A train wreck.. by the way wether through options, or shorting a stock always has stops, so companies can rally so make sure losses are small do not want to be taken out by one stock.
NICK $12.85 made the list in 2010,and in 2011, will continue to make the list until it stops making 10-15% counting div, or may be next year. Yields 3.11%, would rate higher risk, but well run financial.
ORCL $26.59 this makes the list, for one dumb reason, well....in December we were going to come up with 3 stocks we would own in 2012, for my shareclub. Yes one of my 3 was oracle, did not own it, but was intending to buy it, then the earnings came out, awful, they missed on basically everything.
The stock is cheap if they can reach their estimates, believe downside is $25, however if they announce estimates like the last ones in December this is a value trap, and will go lower, would sell below $24.
WIN Wilan on Toronto is a patent holding company, they tried to take over Mosaid and did not get the company, low 4.85 high 9.56 currently 5.90 cdn. Yield 1.69%. so this stock is very beta two weeks ago was at 5.25-5.50. can sometimes bounce a dollar in a few weeks. They have 1.40-1.60 in cash, will earn roughly .40-.60 a share in earnings. Final numbers depends on the settlements they get from other companies, most of their patent fights do not go to court, they have lawyers. Also hopefully they can acquire other patent portfolios, normally something I would avoid, depends on settlements and future growth on getting more patents... still 10-12PE pays a div, and has cash on hand...so.....
TCK.b 38.49 cdn. TCK 37.66 this is a play on copper, met coal, and zinc, a decent base metal play, now if the economy limps forward then copper does fine, copper will do very well going forward, but it might be a couple of years early, still 2.09% and should make 4.25-4.50 so less than 10X not a bad chance for 1-2% worldwide growth. Would sell after 20% loss.
SYK 51.43 okay as a nation ages, this is my health play, this is one of the other stock I proflied at my share club, at the time this was 47-48, so has done better than ORCL, anyways I get killed in the most part in health/drug stocks, and avoid them for the most part, however 16 PE yields 1.66%, and should grow 15% year over year, would settle with 10-15%.
01-08-2012, 05:01 PM
|Thanks Kirk--your year ending summary and predictions always one of my favs down here.
Don't have much to contribute from my end anymore as in defensive mode past couple years due to age (62) plus very scary market conditions.
Seems like yesterday I thought bonds were boring
Now have about 65% and will prob go to 75% by age 65
Am using 2 EFT's TIP & AGG
and 2 mutual funds PTRAX & KYTFX
heres a little on each--
TIPS most know is inflation adjusted treasuries
On outlook for 2012--not as optimistic
as brother kirk--espectially on U.S. economy.
Granted earning have been good but I would expect that with corps cutting workforce and inventory to the bone and restructuring debt with much lower rates-for the short term anyway. Wasn't long ago we celebrated when feds cut rates .25 points and market responded--only ammo they have now is to promise to keep rates at 0 in the future--thats scary
Along with biggies such as credit rating cut 1st time in history or having our debt surpass our GDP for 1st time since WW2--its the little obscure things noted throughout 2011 that really refect our economy like--
-- in 2011 we exported more oil than we imported-seriously
-- GM sold more cars in China than U.S.
--both hard to imagine.
Hopefully things will get straighted out but scenerio playing openly in Europe right now and to lesser extent here should make one prudent-and reminds me of and ole Mark Twain quote during depression
"I 'm more worried on return of my money than on my money"
Here's is an interesting video on how the system works and what is currently going on behind the scenes.. My attention span generally will not let me watch video this long and detailed but have watched it twice. believe it is reason for big money swings in market past few years--as debt has everything teetering on thin balance line.
|1-Year Total Return (Mkt):||13.28%|
|3-Year Total Return (Mkt):||9.42%|
AGG- Barley's Aggregate bond Fund
|1-Year Total Return (Mkt):||7.70%|
|3-Year Total Return (Mkt):||5.78%|
Both Mutual Funds below have 5 star rating by Morning Star and low expenses for mutual funds
o.71% and 0.58% respectively.
PTRAX Pimlico Total Return-is ran by Bill Gross (dubbed the bond king) Who has taken lots of heat this year for less than stellar returns-and for 1st time had clients bail at brisk pace--I'm hanging with him another year--also bulk of wifes 401K there.
|1 year ||+4.58% |
|3 years* ||+8.23% |
|5 years* ||+7.77%|
KYTFX Has been best thing since sliced bread.
Is rare to have a municipal (tax free) for fed and state (Ky) have 5 star rating and this one has lived up to reputation. This has served dual purpose in that it has eliminated all capital gains taxes as all money not in IRA-SEP or wifes 401k is goes here.
|1 year ||+10.82% |
|3 years* ||+6.84% |
|5 years* ||+5.08%|
STOCKS--portfolio results was much like kissing my sister and market in general for year--Flat.
If not for dripp accumulation on basically an all dividend accumulating portfolio--would have probably had small loss.
UNG ETF on natural gas futures accounted for biggest negative. Oddly still optomistic on it and no fears price will ever go to 0 so will hold for duration.
Last edited by DOGS THAT BARK : 01-08-2012 at 05:12 PM.
01-09-2012, 10:46 AM
DTB also have some bond etfs, and will add some more this year, never was much for bonds, and that was a mistake, for an overall portfolio.
the two etfs I like, in Canada but similar ones are in the US.
CBO on Toronto, by Claymore, basically tracks 1-5 years corporate investment grade bonds.
note: could also by the Governemet version of this, but this has a higher yield...should get around 3.5-4%.
also XBB which just track the entire cdn. bond index. prefer cbo for now.
also like Preferred resets of certain comapnies, these reset after every 5 years sometimes seven/10.
another book worth reading or listening to is Boomerang by Michael Lewis, not as good as the big short but he goes into detail on different countries and their debt problems.
Greece, Ireland, Germany (they may have to bail out Europe, and finally the US, well mostly California, which has more in common with Greece than I at first thought.
01-19-2012, 06:19 PM
would like to include the third stock I gave as a pick for the year to my shareclub, it is a jr. so if oil hits 90 or lower this will be shot and forgotten.
renegade petroleum trades on Toronto venture (home of small caps) for $3.36,
I bought in at December for prices of $2.60-2.90. average price is 2.80.
the stock was around 3.50 but drifted lower in 2011, they are small 3800 barrels a day. the goal for the year was 3750.
trades at a cheap cash flow, and should be able to expand production...of coarse you could of said that in 2011 and the stock drifted lower.
in a bull market this stock could go to 4-4.50. in a year like last year probably dead money...time will tell worth a sepcluation.
03-04-2012, 04:40 PM
Selkirk: Do you think Oracle is still a good play at 29.96?
I am looking to make a move in my IRA, and thought I would mix in an individual stock.
Thanks for all you share.
“Religion might be helpful in death, but education is helpful in life.” — Anonymous
"My granddaughter was playing with my phone and said "grand dad, here's a naked lady" It was the tranny." -Madjack
03-05-2012, 09:31 AM
WHN I own Oracle but not in a retirment account or TFSA, I believe it is good value, but there are a few conditions, now will babble about the three stocks picked for shareclub for the year:
RPL this trades on toronto bought at 3.50 around now at 4.43, has growing production in Canada and light oil.
the senior oils in Cdn. will trade with oil, cnq su ect. so would play with options, like how rpl is trading. still is cheap but this is higher risk, they miss on production or market kill resource stocks (mid caps get scorched), still like it.
SYK this is my US health care stock picked at around 51.43 now at 52.93, still hold most of the position, ran up to $58 shortly after I picked it, so took some gains, would like it to be a long term holding good growth. however worried about how the stock is acting, also in general do not do that well in this sector.
ORCL posted here at 26.59 bought some and in the $28 range, of coarse after picked this for my shareclub came in with poor earnings and the stock went from 28-26.
if they can meet the estimates believe it is good value, however on March 20 earnings come out. that will decide the story going forward.
I hold it. would keep orcl to a very low percentage of your retirement account, that goes with all single stocks.
often if you get 60% correct hopefully more is good.
should note: had actually a short on tck which covered at the worse time, that is my timing for you, still has been a good year so far.
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