by Nolan Dalla

(All Rights Reserved)

 

If there is one single bit of handicapping advice to pass along to more sophisticated sports gamblers out there (meaning non-squares who don't have a clue about betting sports), it is this:

Avoid what I refer to as, "tunnel vision."

"Tunnel vision" is looking at a match-up and falling in love with a side too quickly. Then, you "manufacture" facts during your research to support your selection. For example, in Week 2 of the NFL pre-season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were playing at the Cleveland Browns. The Bucs were only a 3-point favorite. The game almost looked too easy. The line opened on Monday and everything seemed to point to the Bucs covering, laying just a field goal. Why?

• Tampa was the better team, by far (no one would argue this).
• Tampa lost last week, and should be motivated this week
• The opponent (Cleveland) won last week and could have an emotional letdown
• Tampa had three experienced NFL QBs (Johnson, King, and Leaf) all jockeying for position. Cleveland's only decent QB (Couch) was scheduled to play only one quarter.
• Tampa has the best defense in the NFC. It's second string could probably match-up and stop the Browns starting unit.

So, everything pointed to Tampa Bay. Looked like and easy win and cover, right?

Final score: CLEVELAND 7, TAMPA 6.

I was bitten by the bug carrying the "tunnel vision" virus. It happens occasionally -- to all of us. Everyone with even an ounce of NFL knowledge knows that Tampa is light years ahead of woeful Cleveland in terms of talent. My reasons in support of a wager on Tampa were nothing the rest of the world didn't already know. In fact, since all the evidence pointed to Tampa -- the line was probably shaved in favor of the Bucs already, which meant the underdog Browns were actually the best value! This value in terms of betting was compounded by the fact the Browns were playing at home the second straight week, with a new head coach and staff, which usually motivates young, non-winning teams.

"Tunnel vision" is a virus on handicappers who otherwise know the sport inside and out, and who clearly understand the principles of winning handicapping. Tunnel vision destroys well-researched wagers and wipes out more confidence than perhaps any other flaw in methodology. You read about it the next day on the sports message boards all the time. The post usually starts out with…."How in the hell could…….They were only favored by…….I can't believe this happened!" Sound familiar?

HOW TO AVOID "TUNNEL VISION": The antidote against this virus is relatively simple. As part of your handicapping methodology, you must build-in a safety valve. An antidote. A truth serum. This means taking the contrary position and trying to justify playing THE OTHER SIDE.

That's right. Instead of picking the Bucs early on and then spending the next week trying to logically justify the pick with information -- do the OPPOSITE. Look for reasons NOT to play the Bucs. Look for reasons to play the Browns, or whoever. The reasons are (usually) there if you search for them long enough. Not always, but often enough to make it worth your while. This is especially true with unpopular teams -- perennial losers such as Cleveland, Cincinnati, Phoenix, and other NFL doormats.

Case in point: Everyone knows the Cowboys are going to be a terrible team this season. That's not news. That's a simple fact.

The question is -- since Dallas is now the pariah of the football betting establishment, that means they are going to be getting a lot of points every Sunday. It will take a hellluva' lot of points to justify putting down portraits of Ben Franklin on the dismal Dallas Cowboys. Oddsmakers know this, which is why the Cowboys (and Browns and others) may actually be good values at times during the season. Not every week, mind you -- but occasionally

I'm not making an argument against the notion that Dallas is a horrible football team. From my daily reports, you can see that I get as emotionally charged up as anyone when evaluating teams and talent. I even admit to some biases. But I also try my best to go against knee-jerk reactions and the popular way of doing things. Betting on the Baltimore Ravens is easy. It takes the brains of an ant to play all the favorites. Lay the points and hope they clobber the opponent. Pretty darn simple. But betting on Dallas and Cleveland takes balls of brass. Those are the people that make money betting the NFL (when done selectively, of course).

The point is -- avoid getting into the mindless, anti-handicapping gobbledygook of the ESPN crowd and brain-dead sportswriters. They don't know their heads from their asses when it comes to handicapping NFL games. In fact, I'll go out on a limb here and say that during the 2001 NFL season…….the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns will have very close to the same record against the spread. But the Browns are going to be ridiculed every week and the Ravens will be glorified as the second coming of the defensive Moses.

As part of your handicapping methodology, you should build in one day (or whatever period of time) to play DEVIL'S ADVOCATE with yourself. That's an important step in the process. Look for reasons to play the other side. Read. Research. Do yoga. Do anything to find reason to play the team you think "doesn't stand a chance."

By playing Devil's Advocate, you will sometimes find that your first instinct was correct. Or, you may decide to pass on the game. Or, you may find pure gold -- a live underdog that is primed to pull off an upset. THAT is the difference (in my opinion) between a handicapper that makes money in the long run, versus the long list of losers and weekly champions who flash in the pan in these NFL contests -- but lose by the end of the season. Any monkey with a typewriter can go 13-1 one week. Let me see someone go 130-10 over ten weeks. It simply isn’t possible. Going 70-50 (57 percent) is tough enough.

Not to trumpet my own horn, but as part of my weekly methodology (starting with NFL Week 1) ONE ENTIRE DAY is going to be devoted to ARGUING AGAINST my NFL selections -- and I'm going to assume that role. That's right, I'm going to make an early pick and then try my best to trash it. Then, I'll take the sum of knowledge I have about an NFL match-up, weigh the evidence, and then make a selection (if there is value in the wager). That's the play.

If you are not playing devil's advocate with yourself when you do your research, you are probably afflicted with a bad case of "tunnel vision." And, I'm willing to bet you aren't winning money.

I hope this bit of advice is helpful.

-- Nolan Dalla