QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Setting Goals and Meeting Them"

Today's question comes from "Celtfan," who wrote:

Nolan:

I noticed in your write-up at the beginning of the season that you set a goal of hitting 57 percent on your overall NBA percentages. I am curious to know why you chose the 57 percent figure? Why not 60 percent? Don’t you think you can hit 60 percent? -- CeltFan

MY REPLY: People have asked why I established a pre-season goal of hitting 57 percent for the year in the NBA. Since I’m close to that mark right now, this is a good time to address that question.

I will assume most readers out there know how difficult it is to put up high percentages -- year in and year out. If you have been in this business for any length of time, surely you do understand the challenge of trying to exceed the 53 percent base figure, which guarantees a profit if you are flat-betting. If you are playing the NBA or NCAA every night, it is extremely difficult to hit 60 percent or better. In fact, anything beyond about 57 percent -- based on 200+ plays per season -- is way beyond the statistical norm. Translated, this means that roughly 98 percent of all handicappers will hit in the 43-57 percent range. I don’t care how bad a handicapper you are -- if you make 200+ plays in a season, it would be a statistical deviation to hit below 43 percent (it happens, but it’s rare). On a more positive note, if you have developed some talent at picking NBA pointspread winners and totals, you can probably expect to land somewhere in the 50-57 percent range. A rare few handicappers might get red-hot for a short period and then cut back on plays to protect their percentages, but I am presuming you play games day in and day out when I make these projections.

I guess what I am really saying is -- it’s good to be OPTIMISTIC, as long as you are REALISTIC. Sure, we would like to hit 60 percent and retire to the Bahamas, but this is an extremely difficult thing to do. There are just too many variables and uncertainties in the NBA each night which precludes things like predictability (last second intentional fouls, mixed team motivations, key players having bad games, the three-point shot, bad officiating, bench play, travel, personal problems and fatigue, etc).

My goal is also personal. In my five years of picking NBA games (on a public forum), my percentages have varied between 53 and 58 percent. I thought 57 percent would be a reasonable goal based on the record of my past performance. The last thing I wanted to do would be to get everyone’s hopes up with an unrealistic figure, and then disappoint the readers by not meeting that goal.

Another reason I picked the figure 57 percent is because that’s the figure that enables the average handicapper to double his/her bankroll over the course of just one complete season. Based on playing no more than 3-4 percent of your BR on any single game (and no parlays for Crissakes....never!), averaging about 3 plays per night (that’s 300 plays from January -- May) means you can double your BR if you hit 57 percent. But let's say that we hit "only" 56 percent and increase our BR by 90 percent -- will there by any complaints? So, as you can see, these esoteric figures are more for show and have nothing to do with the real issue -- which is making money.

Here’s an example: Let’s say you start with a BR of $3,000. You wager $100 per game in flat bets -- which is 3.3 percent of your BR per game (we’ll keep this simple). If we go 57 percent ATS based on 300 plays, here's the breakdown at the end of the season:

$3,000 BR

$100 bet per game (never more than 3.3 percent on any wager)

No parlays or idiot bets

Based on 57 percent winners:

FINAL RECORD ATS:

-- 171 wins

-- 129 losses

This equals a net of +42 wins

Subtract the vig (on losses) which is -12.9

This leaves you with +29.1 wins.

Net total earnings: $2,910.

Okay, so we didn’t quite double the BR to $3,000, but we did increase it by 97 percent -- which is close enough.

But, if you had increased the size of your wagers to exactly 3.3 percent of your BR in what I call "variable flat betting," your earnings would be closer to $4,000 in profit. I’m not advocating that approach because it also exposes you to more fluctuation -- but more aggressive bettors may like that option.

And now, my question to you is: How many $100 bettors wind up the season with $2,910 in profit?

Answer: Not many.

Forgive the lecture, but I want to drive the point home about how making money in this business is largely based on (1) value betting and (2) playing percentages. Parlay cards and longshots are fun when they hit, but they increase your variance and cut into your profits when they lose. SIDE NOTE: A point can be made for parlaying halves and totals, or totals and teams in rare situations, but these kinds of wagers are a cancer on your bankroll in my opinion. Beware! -- Nolan Dalla