QUESTION OF THE DAY ("The Wiseguys"): Today's question comes from Clint, who writes:

Nolan:

We hear about wiseguys, sharps, syndicates, etc. all the time. Aren't these guys and groups of people mostly just number crunchers, i.e. just looking for good lines? For example, if they see a line of 3.5 at one casino when it is 3 everywhere else, won't they hit the dog on that 3.5 just because it is an appealing number? They don't handicap like you or I do they? Do you ever have contact with any of these groups? Thank you. -- Clint

 

MY REPLY: Let me answer your final question first, Clint. No, I do not have personal contact with these groups, nor the so-called "wise-guys." I have always been totally independent in terms of my handicapping. So my exposure to the "line-movers" and "line shakers" and groups that presumably move loads of money on games is contingent upon others I've talked to, rumors I've heard (some true, some not), and a few acquaintances I know who claim to be affiliated with these types of groups. However, I have had contact and have learned a great deal from the wise men I call "the independents."

First, let me give you some background about the social dynamics of high-dollar sports gambling. This arena has changed dramatically in the last ten years. We all remember the days when sportsbooks were filled with characters that looked like they stepped out of the movie "Goodfellas." But today's bettors no longer wear sharkskin suits and talk with Brooklyn accents.

Of course, that element still exists in Las Vegas sports gambling (as to what goes on off-shore -- I have no idea). There is a seedy "clique" of sports handicapping pros who still hang out in the major books, many of whom are well known names in the business (most are crooked and work as touts). I won’t list their names here, but the guys you see on television on Sunday morning screaming they have the lock of the century are the same guys you see at the Stardust on Sunday nights when the early NFL lines used to come out. These characters want people to believe they are "heavy-hitters" when the fact is -- they are just salesmen. I've never seen any of these tout prognosticators bet as big as they suggest. And, I've spent a lot of time at various periods in the major books and eavesdropped on enough conversations, so I think I can speak with some authority. There are exceptions, of course -- but the real "wiseguys" are not the personalities which are known to the public (Mike Warren, et. al.).

On the subject of handicapping teams, I know there have been teams in the past that have been successful and then dissolved because of personality clashes, arguments over money, or other issues. Few of these groups stay together for very long. Perhaps it's the pressure of the business, or "The Canterbury Tale" effect (where the three thieves destroy themselves through greed) -- I don't know.

The most enduring and successful "wiseguys" are the independents. Lem Banker is a prime example. He is the best-known of the heavy-hitting independent bettors. That doesn't mean he plays the highest, just that he's a household name people have come to trust over the years. However, they also have others working for them and often rely on information they get from all over the country. But in terms of bankroll control, they are not affiliated with any conglomeration or investment group (Banker or others can correct me if things have changed).

However, I do know one independent very well. I visited his house last year and learned a great deal, some of which I will share with you here. He will remain anonymous, although I'll call him "RAY in this report.

RAY came to Las Vegas in the mid-70s. He and his new bride took a suite at the Dunes, and basically they never checked out (until it was demolished). He also managed a few champion-level boxers back in the mid-1980s and was even featured in "Time" magazine and "Sports Illustrated." So, we are talking about a real "player." Not Mickey Mouse. A PLAYER. Let me give you a peak into RAY's world. He has five Mercedes Benzes in his driveway (different colors and models). His home is across the block from where Wayne Newton lives. He also has a home on the links at Augusta (The Masters) which is stocked with antique furniture. All of this came from sports gambling. The man has never worked a job, aside from managing a couple of welterweights.

RAY stays in his study (office) most of the day. He wakes up, gets his coffee, and takes several phone calls from people who work for him from all over the country. When I asked him who the people are, he said they were people who are paid for just one reason -- to get information. They follow athletes around, befriend them, find out what the real mood of a team is, hear about personal problems, and so forth. These are the REAL insiders. He'd often have two calls coming in at once with insiders feeding him information.

Example: When I was with RAY he had a call come in from Cleveland. The Browns were playing an NFL pre-season game that night and the source had some good information on the game. RAY said he was going to spread several large bets around town (with runners) based on the information (since local books have limits on pre-season, his options were limited). I presume this example applies to college basketball, MLB, NBA, and the NFL. This is the modus operandi of the big-time professional sports gambler. Meanwhile while we were discussing this, RAY was watching the Cubs on TV who were playing a day game at Wrigley Field (Cubs come on as early as 11:00 am on the West Coast if they are playing at home). So, he was watching one game, while contemplating his other wagers for the remainder of the day.

By the way - this man pays a lot of taxes. RAY showed me his quarterly tax bill…..try writing out a check to the IRS for $67 thousand and change every three months!

I suspect there are several RAYS out there, although most do not bet quite as big, nor do they have as nearly as extensive a network of contacts to rely on for information.

In terms of groups or teams, as I previously stated, most of these groups do not stay together very long. But, there are teams that share bankrolls and use runners to go around town and shop for lines (with cell phones and computers now, this is changing). One of the most famous groups of all-time was called the "Line Movers." Back in the 70s and 80s, they would focus on a game with a key number, usually a small-time college football game that would not attract a lot of betting interest. They used to do this a lot in the Ivy league, since a $5,000 bet could move a line by a half point. They would see Dartmouth as a 3 point favorite. They would spread $100,000 in bests on Dartmouth over town, and watch the lines move to 3.5. In some cases, the line would move up to 4. Or even 4.5. When they found a line at 4, they would jump on Cornell and bet the other side. Of course, I'm using an example here. They would try to find spreads across key numbers and try to read the public as to which way a line was headed and bet the other way. This, I presume is till being done by some people and/or groups.

One of the computer groups today is best represented by a man in Ft. Lee, NJ named Mickey Appleman. I've had some conversations with Mickey as I was fortunate to see him at previous World Series of Poker events. He's one of the smartest sports gamblers that I know. Here's a transcript of a recent interview with Mickey:

"The challenge of sports handicapping always has been applying nonquantifiable angles. Lately, however, the sophisticated computer programs have forced me to alter that basic approach and combine cyber with old fashioned instincts…..(I spend) about four hours a day during the week and the entire day on weekend (handicapping sports)."

My point about Appleman is -- he merges INSTINCTS with the latest technology, which I think is good advice (That reminds me of a story -- See my a report later in the week for a great Mickey Appleman golf story, when he bet $600,000 on a single round of golf!)

Another group or "syndicate" is the element that is tied to illegal bookmaking and organized crime by association. I know less about this element than any other. Years go, one of the biggest bettors in the South was a man named Everette who was known to have ties to the darkside. Everette was tied in to all the bookies in Dallas, Houston, New Orleans and had Florida connections too -- which was a huge market for bookmaking. I had a chance to work for Everette and declined. Everette would call off his action to Las Vegas if he was getting heavy action on one side. I'm sure there are many "Everette's" in every large city in the country. So, that is a definite influence on the notion of "wiseguys," as well.

The bottom line in my opinion is -- most "wiseguys" don't know any more about the sports than the average gambler. Ask a wiseguy to name any starting offensive lineman of the Cincinnati Bengals. Ask them to name one pitcher for the Seattle Marlins. You are going to get a blank stare. Deer in the headlights.

The "wiseguys" who really are in the know are the ones who move quietly and usually do not hang out in sportsbooks. They are the Lem Bankers, RAYS, and Mickey Applemans (see above). They are also to a lesser extent some computer-types who are usually mid-level bettors, but not really heavy-hitters. When I say "mid-level,: I am talking about players that bet a dime to five dimes a game.

As far as your suggestion that the wiseguys just jump on lines for value, I think that is a gross oversimplification. Without applying some "quantifyable angles" as Appleman suggests, there is not enough value in just playing a numbers game (although the LineMovers would selectively target such situations and were the only group I've heard of which used this method…….SIDE NOTE: There were even rumors the LineMovers ran several tout services and would try to tout the public the other way to get advantageous lines or movements, but I don't know if this was true).

I'm not sure I answered your question. But I hope this gives you some insight into the powerful forces that are involved in sports handicapping. Naturally, I am eager to learn more about the subject myself, as well. -- Nolan Dalla