Nolan,

I have had a lot of trouble lately with Saturday NBA and have noticed your recent write-ups about weekend partying effecting play and pct's. As I rely on this right now for my income, I would like to know your view on this. Wouldn't veteran teams have a strong edge, i.e. Jazz, Blazers, etc. -- Rocketfan

 

REPLY: This is one area of my handicapping that needs fine-tuning based on more in-depth research. For years, I have wanted to go back over the old NBA records and track phenomenon that occurs on different days of the week -- primarily the Friday and Saturday nights versus mid-week games. The question is -- is there a greater chance of anomalies occurring on weekends than other days of he week? Or, vice versa? If so, what? Higher-scoring games? Lower-scoring games? Strong home favorites covering? What about weekend day games for home teams, where they play the following night at home? There are many logical questions to be resolved and even more presumptions one could make. But, as you know -- in sports handicapping it's never a good idea to make presumptions without some basis of fact or evidence.

Your question is essentially an inquiry into the social life of the modern NBA star and the influence of "partying" on the games that follow. Are NBA players more likely to party on weekends than other nights of the week? My guess -- and this is pure speculation -- is "no." Since most NBA stars probably couldn’t begin to tell you WHICH DAY OF THE WEEK IT IS, this would seem to be a non-factor. But what about the friends of NBA stars and hangers-on? (Note: Go to an NBA game sometime and stay an hour after the game and see what is waiting for some of these players out in the parking lot). Wouldn't they be more prone to influence the players on weekends, as opposed to weekdays? I don't think so. For example, in most NBA cities a typical Tuesday night provides just as many social opportunities as a Saturday night (for women, booze, late nightlife, etc.). Chris Webber might disagree about living in "small-town" Sacramento, but NBA stars can be seen out on the town in most cities where they play and where they visit -- on their nights off, and following games (sometimes). If you check the logs of the exact days of the week many NBA stars have been arrested (there are over a dozen this year), it often comes in midweek. These arrests have included DWIs, assault charges, and other crimes related to late-night drinking and carousing. I could track this with specific examples, but I think you get the idea. So, I do not believe there is any correlation here, although my conclusions are admittedly non-scientific.

One trend I do think is important -- vis-à-vis weekend games -- is that of officiating. In short, there is a theory that's been around for years in handicapping circles, that officials are more prone to FAVOR the home teams on Friday and Saturday nights. Since crowds usually are slightly larger (especially in the marginal markets) and crowds are often louder and more vocal (more drinking), combined with the fact the corporate stiffs who fill the expensive seats on weeknights are replaced by a more rabid type of fan on weekends (generalizing), this may have an effect on officiating and thus -- could change the outcome of a game. Again, I admit to not having any tangible evidence, other than the anecdotal. However if possible, I would like to see a breakdown of days of the week and respective ATS records for an entire NBA season, if anyone has a database with that information. The question thus becomes: Do home teams cover more on certain days of the week than others? What about teams over .500? Are they more likely to cover than bad teams when faced with an enthusiastic Saturday night home crowd? In support of this theory, I suggest that since officiating is very subjective -- there might be some validity to the notion that referees want to make the home crowd leave happy (it's good for the league and good or business). I'm not going to get into a conspiracy theory, but I suspect that officiating might help home teams more on weekends than weekdays. Hypothetically -- if the home team gets just one extra call in a game, keep in mind that's a 1.6 point edge (based on the average FT percentage). If the home team gets two whistles a game -- that's 3.2 points on average (when shooting foul shots). Of course, I can't prove that NBA referees are influenced by vocal weekend crowds. It's just a theory.

One other point is the influence of holidays on games. I have stated previously that the Super Bowl has a direct influence on the NBA immediately thereafter, and perhaps Christmas, too (although there are a few games played on Christmas day). Teams come back sluggish after a day filled with social activities (drinking) and do not shoot as well in the next game. I'm not sure that a similar correlation exists between weekend games and Sunday or Monday game due to this so-called "hangover effect." At least I have never seen any evidence to suggest this. But, there is room for discussion on this point. Again, this is another trend that would be interesting to track -- looking at totals in day games (usually weekends) versus night games, early games (noon games) versus nights games, and early midweek games versus weekend games. I think the differences would be minimal, but I would like to see in evidence if anyone wishes to share the information.

In closing, I'm sorry that I cannot answer this question with a more clear answer. But you have touched on a fascinating angle which needs to be researched in greater depth by serious sports bettors.