QUESTION OF THE DAY: "What Capping Means"

 

From: cheston

To: nolandalla@aol.com

Hi Nolan, I am pretty new to the whole sports gambling scene. I know my basketball but to a point of a fan. I was wondering if you could explain what handicapping ("capping") exactly is. Is it studying the ATS for teams, and other factors like back-back games, hot streaks, how teams do against each other etc.... and how do "cappers" come up with a value for a team? (i.e., Clippers vs. Nets.....Clippers should be +3 but Vegas is giving +6 so in turn the Clippers are a great value). I hope I'm making sense to you and it is much appreciated for your "takes" on games on MadJacks...and thank you for taking the time to read this email. New Bettor

Cheston

 

REPLY: All of the factors you site are important when considering whether or not to bet on a game. Obviously, you have to look at as many factors as possible.

This takes one thing…….TIME.

Unless you are following the plays of others (which is perfectly fine, after all -- it's why we are here), if do a thorough analysis of each games this takes a considerable amount of time, as well as access to the most up-to-date information. Hence, the Internet is essential.

When weighing various factors, there are different approaches -- many of which work, and others that do not. Some handicappers emphasize certain things and others look for other conditions. Some handicappers emphasize the fundamentals (player matchups, coaching, etc,) and think this is the most important factor. Other handicappers use "trends" only (which is a cookie-cutter approach that is totally objective and doesn't allow for personal bias). Some handicappers look to emotional/motivation factors. I try to weigh everything as best I can and then make a decision. Sure, I make mistakes. We all do. There are games when I see the halftime score, and I say to myself "how could I have missed that?" But the important thing is to learn from those oversights you made in the past and try to apply them to future games. I'm not talking about playing hunches. I'm talking about proven tendencies you have observed.

As for the betting line or total, I usually do not let this influence my analysis until my research is completed. I look at the matchups and try to envision what will happen out on the court (knowing I will be dead-wrong 40-45 percent of the time). Then, after that’s done -- I look at the line as see where I stand in proportion to that line. Perhaps the line is a bit too high -- in which case I pass. If it's very low, I might go back and see if there's something I missed (of course you always miss a few things -- you can't cover every aspect of each game). Then, I make a determination as to whether this additional information should move me off a game. Then, when I actually call in my wagers, I do this all over again. That's right. If I get an actual line that has moved significantly, I have to go back and do it all over again. If the line I get is VERY favorable, I play it as a best bet, or higher than an average bet. The work never stops.

You ask about a hypothetical line of Clippers getting 6 points, when they should only be getting 3 (I assume you are thinking the Clippers are playing at New Jersey and both teams have near-identical records). But what if the Clippers are coming off a home loss and have two days rest, while the Clippers played in Florida the night before and lost in overtime? Might the line at -6 be justified? Keep in mind that these lines are set for a reason, and no line on a relatively obscure game is completely out of whack. In fact, I tend to think opposite some of the experts -- that the bigger games sometimes provide the best betting opportunities (I have changed my view on this in the past year). This point can be debated, of course. This is just my opinion and methodology which has worked for me.

In the NFL, the line is more critical since the key numbers come into play. If I like a side to win outright, I am much more comfortable with a line of +3.5 than +2.5. So, I will give much greater weight to the game where the team is getting +3.5 than +2.5. But line disparities in the NBA, such as 2.5 to 3.5 are just not as meaningful, since there are no key numbers. A couple of intentional fouls and the 2-3 point margin is trivialized in the closing minutes. What really matters is -- which team is going to come out tonight and play a good game, versus which team is going through the motions? If you can determine this, you will usually be on the right side. Again, worrying about a point or two is really missing the whole picture (there are exceptions of course).

So, the answer to your question about "capping" is coming up with a routine that works for you. My routine might not work for someone else. Not many people have the time that I do to research. Not many people can be up at 5:00 am handicapping games. Everyone has limitations -- socially, career-wise, with families that must factor into your handicapping methodology. One you find a routine that works for you, stick with it and try to repeat that with every game you evaluate.

Finally, you cannot handicap baseball, basketball, and football the same way. These are as different as trying to play the blues versus classical. You might know a few chords, but the cadence is completely different. Even colleges and the pros are different in the way you should approach them. More on that another time.