QUESTION OF THE DAY: The Saturday Night "Foul Factor"
Instead of posting a Question and Answer -- today, I have a follow-up to a previous question that was posted by a reader:
Why is the home-court worth three points in handicapping? Last week, I theorized that NBA officiating crews night be influenced by Saturday night home crowds more than any other night of the week. I'm not going to comment as to whether or not this is a conscious versus subconscious attempt to please the home court fans. I'm sure that officials try to remain unbiased as best they can. But is it really possible to be completely unbiased when making marginal judgments in a closed building with 18,000 fans all screaming in unison?
That point is debatable. However, what if I were to suggest that evidence may exist that proves officials give Saturday night home teams a few extra calls per game? IF indeed, officials do give Saturday home teams an extra whistle or two per game -- this could account for an average of 3.2 additional points for the home team -- based on league-wide free-throw percentages. Obviously, handicappers would need to take this into account when betting Saturday night games.
Although what follows is a very limited sample, let's look back at last Saturday night's games (Feb. 24):
ATL 22 FTAs
at DEN 33 FTAs
PHI 21 FTAs
at CHL 23 FTAs
VAN 12 FTAs
at CHI 31 FTAs
PRT 21 FTAs
at LAC 29 FTAs
NJN 17 FTAs
at MIA 23 FTAs
SAS 40 FTAs
at DAL 21 FTAs
Conclusion: In 5 of 6 games, the home team received favorable officiating. The only exception was the San Antonio/Dallas game, which was a huge statistical deviation (Spurs received almost twice as many calls as the Mavericks). In the six games, home teams went to the free-throw line a combined total of 25 more times than the visitors. This means that home teams averaged about two more favorable calls per game (or 4 more free-throw attempts). Home teams won 5 of the 6 games SU, but only went 3-3 ATS. I stress that this is a limited sample, but it may be worth tracking in weeks ahead.