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QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Hedging Teasers"
Hi Nolan:
Let me first thank you for your insightful articles and making your web a fun site! NOW FOR MY QUESTION!
What about "HEDGING the Last Game of a Teaser to even out my wager and OBTAIN a Middle ? For Example-- Let's use a 3 side 10 point teaser--in football----
I:00 Game Miami - 3 vs Jets Total 35
4:00 Game Dallas pick vs Wash
OKAY--- LET'S say i like for my teaser JETS + 13, OVER 25, and Dallas +10.
Now Let's say I hit the 2 1:00 Front end of the teaser. Is it a good wager to "HEDGE" the other way on the 4:00 Game, in this case Washington? And to obtain a Middle... or am I just spinning my wheels with this thought?
Thanks Again for everything Nolan
Keep up great help!
Brian from The Bronx
REPLY: Let me try to understand this. You have already won 2 of your 3 picks in a "three-team teaser." Now, you want to maximize your advantage by possibly hedging with another bet in the final game. You have Dallas at +10 in the teaser. If the Cowboys cover, this will give you a win of one unit (I will assume that ties lose in your teaser).
Let's examine the possibilities. I have come up with three options for you based on this scenario. Each option includes a different level of risk-tolerance:
OPTION 1 -- Bet one unit on Washington at "pick'em": You will win both bets if the spread falls in between a tie and WASHINGTON by 9. You are risking only 5 percent (the vig on Washington at pick) for a 20-1 payoff based on a 9-point window. If the margin falls outside the 9 points, you win one bet but lose the other for a net loss of 5 percent of the total invested. To make this wager, you obviously have to look very closely at the two teams. This is where solid handicapping would come in and apply. The wager would be much stronger, assuming you have two good defenses and a low-scoring game is predicted. THIS IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OF THE THREE OPTIONS.
OPTION 2 -- Bet one unit on another teaser, either:
Washington at +10 and combine this with two other plays, or
Washington at +6 combined with one other play:
The first ticket wins if the margin of victory for either team is 9 points or less (about 2/3rds of all NFL games fall into this range). You also have a live ticket on the second bet (Note: I would consider this, if there were inclement weather conditions, or two good defenses involved. I would never do this on a St. Louis Rams game, for obvious reason of volatility). If you made a two-team teaser -- instead of an 18-point spread, you would have a 14-point spread. THIS IS FOR AGGRESSIVE BETTORS ONLY
OPTION 3 -- Do nothing. Stay with the ticket at Dallas +10 (this is probably the wisest course of action for most bettors, since you are probably about three times as likely to win than lose with the spread moving from pick'em to +9). THIS HAS MARGINAL RISK, and is certainly more risky than Option 1, but is not as risky as Option 2.
Only you can decide which is the best course of action as far as your aversion to risk. I also maintain that much depends on the character of the two teams (Dallas and Washington), previous results, starting lineups, weather, and other factors.
-- Nolan Dalla
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