QUESTION OF THE DAY: "Swings"

Today, I do not have a question. Nor do I have an answer. But I do have something special, my friends. Today, I am sharing an e-mail with you that I just received. I thought it would be worthwhile to post this publicly, because it's not just for me -- it's for ALL handicappers. We ALL go through ups and downs in the business. And when we have downs, it's good to have a support network of fellow handicappers to bounce ideas off of and to lend support. Since I am fortunate to get a lot of feedback from bettors at all levels, I think it is a good idea to pass something along if it may be of benefit to others who may be in a cold spell. I hope you will agree:

 

Hi Nolan,

I have been a rather intense follower of the MadJack forum. I wish to remind you of something you have written many times. STREAKS HAPPEN. Like you, I have a background in probability and statistics. Nolan, my friend, let it go emotionally if you can. Do not worry about other people's investments. In the long run, people win by following your picks. Do not stress out about the short run, please. You do not deserve the stress. A losing streak does not necessarily imply poor handicapping. Perfect handicapping cannot prevent the inevitability of losing streaks. As I am sure you know, you can even study a string of results and calculate how often you will experience a short run window of X wins and Y losses within a larger population of N games, given a per/game assumed probability of winning P. I think you will see that your recent results are normal. You have my unqualified respect. If you ever want any help with statistical studies such as I described a moment ago, let me know.

Bottom line, Nolan, relax. You deserve to feel good about your work. Period.

Your friend,

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

REPLY: I am very grateful for these kind words. Of course, you are quite right about the statistical probability of a losing streak INCREASING, the longer you play and the more games you play. I hope that others who are going through a bad streak will continue to have faith (in themselves) and recognize this fact. Thank you again.