January 27, 2002

New Orleans Superdome

Updated odds as of January 30, 2001)

From The Regent Sportsbook in Las Vegas

INTRODUCTION: Is it too early to speculate on making an NFL futures bet? Is it ever too early to get a good price on a line? Of course, not! Some investors say it's inadvisable to tie-up money for a full-year with a futures ticket (since you will lose about 3 percent of the value based on the rate of inflation). Aside from this very reasonable point-of-view, let's examine the opening NFL Futures for Super Bowl XXXVI:

 

ST. LOUIS -- 9/2

Slightly overvalued based on monumental defensive problems. I'd have the Rams listed at least 6-1, if not higher. Their value goes up somewhat based on a very weak NFC.

TENNESSEE -- 6-1

Good line and probably a solid investment at this number. Titans should be co-favorites -- along with Baltimore and Oakland. Offense should improve since WRs will come back healthy and offensive coordinator will be in his second full season working with QB Steve McNair, and defense is one of the league's best.

OAKLAND -- 8-1

Hard to say if 2000 was a year of over-achievement for the Raiders. Can aging veteran QB Rich Gannon put up the same numbers again next season? Even with the questions, still the third best team in the NFL.

INDIANAPOLIS -- 8-1

This is an insane line. If Colts were an NFC team, this line might be justifiable. But in a conference stocked with Baltimore, Tennessee, Oakland, and Denver, how can the Colts be listed this high? QB Peyton Manning still doesn't play well on the road. Colts have an average defense. And, Jim Mora has a horrible career playoff record. Without home field advantage throughout playoffs, this team is probably gone in the first round.

TAMPA -- 12-1

Only because Bucs play in the NFC are they listed this high. Well-coached. Good defense. But very lackluster offensively. Look for Tampa to pattern themselves after Raven's success -- and fail.

BALTIMORE -- 10-1

So, the Ravens win two tough road playoff games, destroy the Giants in the Super Bowl, finish the year with some of the best defensive statistics of all-time -- yet are listed lower than the Colts and sixth-ranked in the NFL. If Baltimore doesn't lose more than a starter or two to free-agency, this is still the team to beat, along with Tennessee. A good investment at this price, since offense is probably destined to improve (especially if they sign QB Brad Johnson) and running game will develop with Jamal Lewis coming into his second year next season.

WASHINGTON -- 10-1

Team is a complete mystery. On paper, this is one of the best teams in the NFL. Defense is solid. Redskins will be helped by having healthy receiving corps back next year (in my view the key to Washington's demise in 2000). Then again, it appears QB Jeff George will be the leader of this team which has proven to be a total quagmire. New head coach Marty Shottenheimer will give this team some consistency, but with an entirely new coaching staff, including the loss of defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes, Redskins appear to be overvalued again this year.

MINNESOTA -- 12-1

RB Robert Smith just announced his retirement. He must know something. This team is in disarray. Defense stinks. Players are squabbling. Media and fans are openly critical of head coach Dennis Green. Vikings have no business being listed anywhere higher than about 18-1.

JACKSONVILLE -- 15-1

This is a tough team to figure out. Jags will come back healthy next season, which means they will field a completely different team than what we saw in the second half of the 2000 season. Problem is, Jacksonville is probably the third best team in the division and no bettor than the fifth best team in the conference. Defense is average. Odds should probably be in the 20-1 range.

DENVER -- 15-1

Aside from St. Louis, this the best offense in football. With QB Brian Griese back and a duo of healthy RBs (Davis and Anderson), Broncos are going to score a ton of points (look for them to challenge the 1998 Vikings points total). Big question is defense, although hiring of Ray Rhodes from Washington will help. 15-1 appears to be about the right number here, although Broncos will have a tough time in the brutal AFC.

NY GIANTS -- 20-1

One Super Bowl loss, and the Giants fall back to the middle of the pack. If Giants had a better quarterback, their prospects would be brighter. But I don't believe Kerry Collins is going to take this team anywhere. Good coaching, solid defense, an above-average running game -- the parts are all there. But most, including I, believe this team overachieved last season.

GREEN BAY -- 20-1

A ridiculous number. Wtihout proven coaching, Brent Favre's inconsistencies (and injuries), a poor running game, and just about everyone else on the team average in talent -- Packers should be down the list. This is a .500 team. Based on coaching and personnel, Green Bay should probably be listed at 25-1 or 30-1.

NEW ORLEANS -- 20-1

I absolutely love the Saints at this price. Saints are roughly equal in talent to the Giants (based on 2000 results) and should only get better with QB Blake returning (look for a QB controversy in training camp), Ricky Waters entering his prime (look for a big year), an emerging WR corps, and a defense that was inconsistent, but which should develop into a better unit next season. In a weak conference, Saints have as good a chance as any team to win the NFC and be in the Super Bowl. A clear value here at this price.

MIAMI -- 25-1

Slightly undervalued, but only because they play in the very tough AFC. If the running game continues to develop, and defense plays as well as last season, this could be the surprise team of 2001. However, with Chan Gailey calling the shots offensively, my estimation of this team's prospects decline significantly.

PHILADELPHIA -- 15-1

RB Duce Staley is the key here. He must stay healthy for Philadelphia to have any chance at making a playoff run. Eagles are also desperate for WRs. Defense is undersized and probably overachieved last season. I expect Eagles to fall back near .500 in 2001, although considering their lack of talent, that's still a major accomplishment. As for the 15-1 number, Saints are a much better value at 20-1.

NY JETS -- 30-1

Price seems about right. But so many questions. Who will start at QB after the Testeverde disaster? New coach will have his hands full. I wouldn't touch the Jets with Monopoly money.

DETROIT -- 30-1

Should be 40-1 or lower. This team is a couple of injuries away from being the Cleveland Browns.

BUFFALO -- 30-1

Another team in disarray. Coaching change. Major quarterback controversy and internal troubles. 30-1 means they are average according to oddsmakers, when the fact is -- they are probably due for a decline in 2001. Look for a fall to the cellar.

KANSAS CITY -- 30-1

Chiefs had massive defensive injuries last season. Unit is coming back healthy which is promising. Trouble for Chiefs is the lack of a running game. One of the worst yards-per-carry averages in the NFL last season. If Kansas City can find a RB to take the load off the passing game, Chiefs could surprise several teams this season and go on a run. But, they won't compete with Baltimore and Tennessee.

CAROLINA -- 40-1

This is one of those teams that you know is capable of having a big year, then never seems go beyond expectation. This is a slightly above-average team in talent, and therefore is probably undervalued at 40-1, but probably does not have a realistic chance of winning the division or making a Super Bowl run (versus more talented Saints and Rams).

PITTSBURGH -- 40-1

Steelers get a new stadium, but same old team. Defense is full of holes, offense is one-dimensional. Bill Cower pulled-off a near-miracle with this team going 8-8 last season. Only because they get Cincy and the Browns four games does this team have a chance to stay respectable.

SAN FRANCISCO -- 40-1

Offensive numbers were inflated because defensive gave up so many big plays last season. Will be lucky to reach .500

SEATTLE -- 40-1

Seahawk's defensive numbers are frightening. Seattle surrendered something like 6+ average yards to opponents over the course of the season. Six yards per play! This is the AFC's version of San Francisco, with even less talent on offense. This team has virtually no chance at making the playoffs.

NEW ENGLAND -- 50-1

Probably deserves to be rated higher than Seattle, but who would waste money on a pick like this? Best-case scenario for a Patriot fan would be to place money for Patriots to win the division, which appears to be wide-open next season. Patriots have some serious problems, but if the offensive line somehow develops, they could pull a few surprises. I have no regard for Bill Bellchick as a head coach, but defense should show improvement, as well. Patriots had a brutal schedule in 2000. Assuming we can get an O/U on wins at 6.5 or lower, I like Patriots to go OVER the number.

CHICAGO -- 50-1

You've got to be kidding.

DALLAS -- 50-1

Now, I know you're kidding. This team is going to be painful to watch next year.

SAN DIEGO -- 100-1

Odd as it may sound, I like the Chargers as a longshot at this price. Stranger things have happened when the basics were all in place and a team came out of nowhere and went on a tear (1998 Atlanta, 1999 St. Louis, 2000 NY Giants). If QB Roger Vick is drafted and starts immediately for Chargers, the season is basically over (I predict Vick will be a total bust). But if Chargers go with Ryan Leaf or other QB, with some breaks, San Diego will pull a few upsets, given their defensive potential.

ATLANTA -- 100-1

Dan Reeves should have retired. Look for Georgia Dome to be half-empty every game and the dismal Falcons to end up in last place. This is a horrible football team.

ARIZONA -- 100-1

Here's another team that I believe is a good longshot. Cardinals were killed by injuries last season (seven starters went out in pre-season!). With Cardinals returning healthy, if QB Jake Plummer can work the magic of two years ago, this team could win the NFC East (which I view as a bet of exceptional value). WRs corps is in place. Defense is respectable. Offensive line will be the key question. I expect Cardinals to be the most improved team in 2001 (without the foresight of the NFL draft and pre-season). Chances are helped by playing in a weak division in a very weak conference.

CINCINNATI -- 150-1

There is talk that Bengals might not re-sign RB Corey Dillon. And, QB A. Smith was just arrested for drunken driving. Is there a connection here?

CLEVELAND -- 200-1

Make your 2013 Super Bowl reservations now!

RECOMMENATIONS:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 20-1

PHOENIX CARDINALS 100-1

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 100-1

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED -- may be quoted with attribution to NOLAN DALLA

NOLAN DALLA