NFL Free Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 4-1 ATS)
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Published on 10-22-2020 09:39 PM
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There is some serious history behind this AFC West rivalry. It wasn’t all that long ago that Denver QB Peyton Manning led the Broncos to seven straight wins over the Chiefs.
Since Manning left, the tide has turned and Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs have owned the series. KC has now won nine in a row, the last four with QB Patrick Mahomes under center.
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Will it be more of the same in Week 7?
Game: Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 4-1 ATS)
When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2020
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Current Line: KC -9.5 Total: 45.5
TV Coverage: CBS
Broncos Winning Streak
Denver has won two straight after losing its first three games of the season. Last week, the Broncos went to New England, didn’t score a touchdown, and still won 18-12. Kicker Brandon McManus kicked six field goals and the Broncos defense played well.
When playing the Chiefs though, teams have to be prepared to score. Kansas City averages over 29 points per game. In the two games with the Chiefs last year, Denver managed a grand total of nine points.
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Denver QB Drew Lock came back after a shoulder injury and played last week. That’s good news for the Broncos. Guard Dalton Risner, tight end Andrew Beck, and WR Diontae Spencer all missed practice on Wednesday. All are listed as questionable for Sunday.
Full Go for Chiefs
Kansas City will have most of its full contingent of stars on hand for Sunday. Only WR Sammy Watkins will be out of the lineup. Plus, recent pickup Le’Veon Bell might be ready to go for the first time as a Chief.
There is no question the better roster belongs to Kansas City. The big difference though comes from above - head coach Andy Reid.
As the head coach in Kansas City, Reid’s teams have excelled in each of the following situations:
Playing on the Road: 37-19-1 ATS
Playing in the Division: 28-15-1 ATS
The Chiefs will be on the road in the AFC West Division on Sunday. How have they fared in those games under Reid? 16-5 ATS. That is a solid record and one worth backing with our freepick
A look at Kansas City’s recent record against the spread and its ATS record when playing Denver cements this pick. The Chiefs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games. In the series with Denver, Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games.
We can also take a look at the Chiefs performance against the spread in games played at Denver. In the last six Chiefs-Broncos games played in the Mile High city, take a guess at Kansas City’s ATS record.
Anything lower than 6-0 ATS is wrong. Yes, it’s a 9.5-point spread at sportsbooks, but Denver averages just 20 points a game and only managed nine points against the Chiefs in two games last year. The only blip on the Chiefs radar is a Week Five loss to the Raiders, also a divisional opponent.
Stick with the Chiefs and their head coach who dominates in this type of game.
NFL Free Pick: CHIEFS -9.5
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