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NFL Free Pick | Bears @ Packers

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It is the oldest rivalry in the NFL. Bears-Packers. Packers and Bears. They have played almost every season since 1921. They rekindle the gridiron romance on Sunday night in prime time.


The Packers lead the NFC North Division and the Bears are trodding through a so-so season. Green Bay leads the series 99-95-6 and looks to increase that lead on Sunday night.
Game: Chicago Bears (5-5, 5-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (7-3, 6-4 ATS)
When: 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2020
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Current Line: GB -7.5 Total: 45.5
TV Coverage: NBC
Bears vs. Packers Head to Head
The Bears at one time - actually two times - owned a 24-game lead in their series with the Packers. The last 24-game advantage was held in 1992. The Packers, of course, have had a ton of success recently in the series with their long-time rival.
Since beating Chicago in the 2010 playoffs - the Packers would go on to win Super Bowl XLV that year - the Bears have recorded just three wins. That’s a span of 20 games.
Green Bay won both games last season eliminating the Bears from postseason contention with a 21-13 win late in the 2019 season.
We almost nailed the exact score in our Bills at Cardinals preview! Go check it out.
Is it an UNDER Game?
Bears-Packers games have typically been low-scoring affairs, and a favorite of cappers offering free picks. In addition to the 21-13 Packers victory last year, the two teams played a defensive battle in their first meeting. Green Bay won 10-3. Over the past five seasons - a total of ten games - the Total has gone Under 50 in all but two games.
Chicago’s defense is the reason why the Bears are 5-5 this season. The offense is horrible. Head coach Matt Nagy opted to bench starting QB Mitchell Trubisky in favor of former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles after three games.
Foles has a hip injury and Trubisky actually got all of the first team reps in practice earlier this week. Nagy has not yet named a starter for Sunday night’s game. It might not matter.
The Bears have the worst rushing offense in the league averaging just 78.2 yards a game on the ground. If not for the hapless Jets, Chicago would have the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL too. The Bears average 19.1 points per game.

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A-Rod is the Key

The real key though is Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers star has only lost to Bears four times and one of those came after he injured a collarbone.
Rodgers excels, from a fan’s and a bettor’s standpoint, in a few different situations. One is playing at home at Lambeau Field. Rodgers’ career record against the spread is 55-32-3 in games on the Frozen Tundra.
The Green Bay quarterback also excels in games against NFC North Division opponents. His career record ATS in division games is 44-26.
When you break it down further, Rodgers is 22-12 ATS against division opponents at Lambeau Field. Beating the Bears by more than a touchdown might seem like a stretch considering Chicago’s defense and the history of this matchup.
However, Bears opponents are 17-8-1 ATS since the beginning of last season and Nagy’s Bears are 0-2 ATS coming off a bye.
Bears @ Packers NFL Free Pick: PACKERS -7.5 at America’s Bookie
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