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Super Bowl LV Free Pick | Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

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It’s the rematch that many of the top rated online sportsbooks were hoping for. Kansas City will take on Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV Sunday after having met in Week 12 of the regular season.
That game was also at Raymond James Stadium. Kansas City jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter on to win 27-24. Can the Chiefs pull off the difficult feat of beating a team twice in one season?

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Game: Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 7-10-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5, 11-8 ATS)
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 7, 2021
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Current Line: KC -3 Total: 56
TV Coverage: CBS

Can the Chiefs Do It?

Judging by the Chiefs’ recent performances, the answer is “yes.” Kansas City rolled up 38 points on Buffalo in the AFC championship game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs 38-24 win.
More importantly, the Kansas City defense got after Bills QB Josh Allen. The Chiefs recorded four sacks and picked off Allen once. The Chiefs defense doesn’t get much credit, but in their last three games the Chiefs D has allowed just 18.3 points per game.

Related Link: Getting a Piece of the Super Bowl Billions


Where the Chiefs have difficulty is in covering point spreads. KC started the season going 6-2 ATS, but then fell apart going 0-8-1 before covering in the AFC title game win over Buffalo.
Part of the problem was a Kansas City red zone defense that was the worst in the NFL. The Chiefs allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 76 percent of their trips inside the Kansas City red zone.

Can the Bucs Do It?

On the other end, Tampa Bay has not had much difficulty putting points on the board. Led by QB Tom Brady, the Bucs have scored 30 or more points in each of their last six games. That includes two 40-point-plus performances at the end of the regular season.
In the NFC championship game victory over No. 1 seed Green Bay, Brady threw three touchdown passes and led the Bucs to a 31-26 win.
The Bucs also harassed Packers QB Aaron Rodgers all game long. Tampa Bay sacked Rodgers five times and picked him off once. It’s worth noting that Green Bay’s offensive line had the league’s highest pass protection grade in the NFL.
The Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid will have to shuffle their offensive line around after the loss of left tackle Eric Fisher. The two-time Pro Bowler tore an Achilles tendon in the NFC championship. Kansas City’s offensive line against Tampa Bay’s pass rush could be one of the keys in Sunday’s Super Bowl.

We took it without vaseline on our last pick. It was a NFC Championship betting preview if you care to take a look.


Super Bowl LV Free Pick


It really boils down to this. Kansas City wins games. They have won 25 of their last 27. While they haven’t covered many spreads in their last ten games, it is worth noting the Chiefs’ performance in their last 56 overall victories.
In the Chiefs’ last 56 wins, they won by three or more points in all but one game. With Mahomes leading a high-powered offense - banged up offensive line and all - the Chiefs win, cover, and repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Super Bowl LV FREE PICK: CHIEFS -3
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