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NBA Free Pick | Clippers at Pelicans

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The Los Angeles Clippers look to turn things around after the All-Star break with a trip to New Orleans. The Clippers won just three of their final nine games in the NBA’s first half.
L.A. dropped the last three - to Milwaukee, Washington, and Boston - straight before the All-Star break by a combined nine points. A win over the Pelicans could jump start the Clippers in the second half of the season and help them improve upon their fourth-place standing in the Western Conference.


The two teams have met once this season and that result gives plenty of insight into how to bet this one on Sunday night.
Game: Los Angeles Clippers (24-14, 20-18 ATS) at New Orleans Pelicans (15-21, 15-21 ATS)
When: 9:00 PM ET, Sunday, March 14, 2021
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Current Line: OFF Total: OFF
TV Coverage: ESPN
New Orleans played at Los Angeles on January 13. The Clippers were -11.5-point favorites. Zion Williamson didn’t play for the Pelicans, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker went off for 37 points and the Pelicans hung around in a 111-106 loss.
While L.A. didn’t cover, the total did go over the posted 216. It is extremely unlikely Sunday’s total will be that low. It’s more likely that Sunday’s number is over 220, possibly well over 220.
Since beating the Pelicans in January, the Clippers have only had six games in which the total was fewer than 220 points. Two of those games were against Miami and one was against the Knicks. Those are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
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For the season, the Clippers have one of the better records in the league to the Over. L.A. has the fifth best record with the Over going 22-15-1. Remarkably, the Clippers maintain that record despite just one total going Over in the last five games and two in the last nine.
On the other side, the team with the NBA’s best Over record is New Orleans. The Pelicans have seen the Over hit in 26 of their 36 games thus far. The total has gone Over in 12 of New Orleans' last 14 games.

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The key on Sunday will be where the number comes in. New Orleans averages 115.5 points a game (fifth-best in the league) and L.A. scores 114.8 (7th). Using those numbers, that would put the total at 230.

More recently, the Pelicans have been putting up some bigger numbers averaging nearly 118 a game in their last five. The Clippers have hit right around their average in their last five games. That would put the total at roughly 232.
At home, New Orleans has really shined. The Pelicans have scored at least 120 points in eight of their last ten home games. Williamson will be playing in this game and he is averaging 25.6 points per game. Look for a big game from him as well as from Clippers stars Kawhi Leonard (26.6 ppg) and
Paul George (23.7 ppg).

The key is where the total comes in. If you can get it at 235 or better at your online sportsbook, play the Over.

NBA Free Pick: OVER up to 235
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