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NBA Free Pick | Nets at Bucks

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The Milwaukee Bucks claimed Game 3 in a low-scoring 86-83 win over Brooklyn on Thursday night. Still, the Nets enter Game 4 as a 2-point favorite.
That is significant, especially in this yearís postseason. Favorites are now 37-15 straight up and 34-18 ATS in this yearís playoffs. Will the trend continue?


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Game: Brooklyn Nets (54-26, 45-35 ATS) at Milwaukee Bucks (51-28, 35-44 ATS)
When: 3:00 PM ET, Sunday, June 13, 2021
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Current Line: BKN -2 Total: 229.5
TV Coverage: ABC

Bucking Back in the Series
Milwaukee started strong in Game 3 and opened up a 21-point first-quarter lead. The Bucks watched the Nets chip away at it and ended up watching Kevin Durantís 29-foot three-point attempt go awry at the buzzer to hang on for the win.
It was the Nets lowest offensive output of the season. The Bucks defense clamped down on Brooklyn and the stars took over on both teams. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 and 33 points, respectively, for the Bucks while Kevin Durant had 30 and Kyrie Irving 22 for the Nets.

Injuries Could Determine Series
Brooklyn played again without nine-time All-Star James Harden. Jeff Green also didnít play and both are listed as out for Sundayís game. Not having either player didnít affect the Nets all that much, though the team would surely rather see both in uniform.
Coach Rick picked the Habs to beat the Jets in Game 3 of their NHL Playoff game. Click here to check out last weekís Jets at Canadiens free pick.
Whatís interesting is that despite shooting miserably in Game 3, the Nets had a chance to win at the buzzer. Brooklyn shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 25 percent (8-of-32) from beyond the three-point arc. Even if the Nets had shot just five points better - still below their season averages - they would have beaten Milwaukee handily.


What is Next?

Heading into Game 4 on Sunday, another interesting tidbit is what happened in Brooklynís first-round series with Boston. The Nets smacked the Celtics around at home in Games 1 and 2. Then, the Game 3 thing happened.
You know, itís that thing where a team falls behind 0-2 in a playoff series and then returns home. Knowing they canít go down 0-3 (because no NBA team has ever come back to win a seven-game series after losing the first three), the home team gets juiced up and plays much better in Game 3.
The team ahead may have a slight letdown, but whatever it is, home teams down 0-2 normally always play better in Game 3, at least in the first half. Over the past five seasons in such instances, home teams in Game 3 are 29-6 against the first half spread. Oftentimes, those teams hold on for a win.


Nets at Bucks Free Pick

Boston did just that in Game 3 of their first-round series with Brooklyn. Milwaukee didnít cover the first half spread or the game spread, but they did play better and ultimately defeat the Nets.
What happened next to Boston? They got blown out in two straight and the Nets moved on. Now, Milwaukee is not Boston, but you have to believe the Nets will get right back to business in Game 4.
Remember, the Nets are the best shooting team in the NBA (49.2 percent) and the second-best three-point shooting team (39.4 percent). Donít expect them to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3.
Plus, remember how favorites have done in this yearís playoffs? Yeah, road favorites are 10-3 ATS.

Take the Nets -2.
Nets at Bucks Free Pick: NETS -2
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