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When the Bills run: Here’s a good example of why Pro Football Focus’ stats are sometimes questioned. The analytics website ranks Bills running back Devin Singletary 49th out of 50 running backs in the NFL with at least 22 rushing attempts. The eyeball test alone tells you that ranking is too low. Singletary’s grade has been negatively impacted by four fumbles, although the team hasn’t lost any of them. Singletary is averaging a healthy 5.3 yards per carry. The best way to defend Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is to keep him on the sideline, so the Bills will want to run the ball better Sunday. They should have a chance – the Chiefs rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per play. EDGE: Bills.

When the Bills pass: Quarterback Josh Allen has eight “turnover worthy” plays this season, according to PFF, which ranks as the third most in the NFL. There’s a reason Allen said after the Houston game he’s putting the ball in high-danger areas too often. On the flip side, Allen has 11 “big-time throws,” which PFF defines as a “significant, accurate throw.” That’s fourth most in the NFL. One of the most promising developments early this season has been tight end Dawson Knox becoming a player opposing defenses have to worry about. Knox has four receiving touchdowns. EDGE: Bills.

When the Chiefs run: Second-year veteran Clyde Edwards-Helaire has consecutive 100-yard games on the ground, taking advantage of big holes (and bad run defenses) made by the Kansas City offensive line, which was rebuilt in the offseason with the trade for left tackle Orlando Brown, the free-agent signing of Joe Thuney and the drafting of Creed Humphrey. The moves have paid off as the Chiefs have been excellent in short-yardage situations. EDGE: Chiefs.



When the Chiefs pass: Mahomes is just the second quarterback in NFL history to win 40 of his first 50 career starts, joining Ken Stabler. Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns this year, and his 119.6 quarterback rating is the best in the AFC. He’s throwing a touchdown pass on one of every 10 attempts, which also leads the league. His two favorite weapons remain receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. EDGE: Chiefs.

Special teams: The Bills moved up from 19th to 12 in Football Outsiders’ weekly ranking of the league’s special teams. Buffalo ranks second in the NFL kickoff return average (32.6 yards) and first in punt coverage, allowing a scant 3.0 yards per return. Tyler Bass is 10 of 11 on field goals, with his only miss coming from beyond 50 yards. The Chiefs, however, are sixth in Football Outsiders’ rankings. To be fair, they don’t have to do much. Kansas City has punted just six times and kicked three field goals in the first four games, a sign of the offense’s ability to finish drives. EDGE: Chiefs.

Coaching: “Sean McDermott coached under Andy Reid” is the new “Ryan Fitzpatrick wears his wedding ring on the field” or “Chris Hogan played lacrosse.” We all know how close of a relationship the two head coaches have. Reid’s team looked like the better-prepared one in both meetings last year. The Bills have done their best to take the “biggest-game-because-it’s-the-next-one approach,” but we all know this is a measuring stick for the franchise. A victory in Arrowhead Stadium would reshape the postseason picture, with the Bills having to be considered the favorites for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. EDGE: Chiefs.
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