Saturday 12/31 Bowls

[ejthree]

hahaha yup. that 2nd one was the killer.

soooo.... anything much happening in the 2nd half of the other game?

that sequence at the end of the 1st half was brutal. i'm ok with the decision to go for it on 4th down. but to then call TO after bama's first play... i just shook my head and said "you just gave them a free TO." sure enough, what, 6 plays later and bama was in the end zone and the game was over.

When I read Brice Young and Anderson did not opt out , I lost a lot of interest in K St , these two guys could both go in top 5 and are tremendous leaders and old Mo switched at that point.. Of course, I'm the best at hindsight lol.

[Smitty]

Michigan homer here. I think Michigan will pull it out but I have no idea how easy/hard it will be.

A couple things I've heard throughout the week that favor Michigan: TCU has had more 50 yard plays that anyone (or one of the most) and Michigan has only given up 1 50yd play all year. TCU is a bad 3rd down and red zone team, which shouldn't fare well against a strong defense.

Yeah, TCU is 53rd in the country at converting 3rd downs. You'd think they'd be better with that offense. And UM is 19th in the country defensively.

Also surprised to see TCU is 81st in Red Zone offense, but they still score TDs on 67% of their RZ trips, which is decent. They just don't kick a lot of fgs. That's going to be interesting to watch, as Michigan's RZ defense has been very good. Near as I can tell, they are the only team in the country that gave up more fgs in the RZ than TDs.

[Smitty]

Peach Bowl

(quick side note - looks like i really drove down the total on the Fiesta Bowl - now it's 56. And this cracks me up... my cashout option is still $10 LOWER than my original bet. So I got a good #, but they are still offering me less money to cash out my bet. Go figure.)

This one scares me a little. Especially the line movement today. Normally I don't like "home" teams in bowl games, but obviously this is a little different. No shortage of motivation for the dawgs. I guess they have gone from being the hunter last year to the hunted today and, hopefully, 9 days from now.

Both teams had easier schedules than you'd expect from these conferences. OSU beat ND in the opener, which wasn't as impressive as it seemed at the time. After that, they played one ranked team the entire regular season, finally putting away Penn St in the 4th quarter.

Georgia demolished Oregon in the opener and then only played one ranked team the rest of their regular season. That one happened to be a #1 ranked Tennessee team that Georgia held to 13 points. Hard to imagine going through an SEC schedule and only playing 1 ranked team.

(Another quick side note: Jalen Carter picking up the LSU qb in the SEC Championship Game and holding him in the air like a trophy until the ref blew the whistle was probably my favorite play this season. It was very smart and friggin' hilarious.)

OSU only played two top-forty offenses this year. They gave up 31 to PSU and 45 to Michigan. Their defensive improvement from last year may be more due to facing a lot of bad offenses than anything else.

I feel like Kirby Smart is the only Saban disciple who actually learned anything. He's winning games (and championships) with defense and a balance offense.

Alright, I still have that nagging thought in the back of my head that, somehow, OSU is going to keep this close. But I have to stick with my gut, which tells me Georgia is just a far better team. Maybe OSU will hit a couple big plays early and roll from there. The line is down to 5 now, and I just gotta grab it. I'm as on the fence with the total, too. I think I have to play the under. One thing that I noticed when looking at the Red Zone data for Michigan/TCU is that Georgia settles for a surprising number of fgs. They score in the RZ at the highest % in the country, but 30% of those scores are fgs. For comparison, the number for OSU, which scores in the RZ at the second highest rate, is 20%.

Georgia has, by far, the best RZ defense in the country, allowing a score on 60.7% of RZ drives. The 2nd best is 66.7%. And of the 17 RZ scores Georgia allowed, 9 of them were fgs.

Ohio St's RZ defense has been particularly bad, allowing a score 91.3% of the time, which is 122nd in the country. Luckily for them, they have allowed the fewest RZ opportunities in the country. 67% of those RZ scores were TDs.

Georgia (-5) 4 units
Under (62) 2 units.
OSU TT under (28.5, -125) 2 units

Sooo... I accidentally just bet the under for double what I intended to. I went to cash it out, and it had immediately fallen by $22. So I'm letting it ride. Obviously that means the over is a stone cold lock. Place your wagers accordingly. You're welcome. Let my loss be your gain.

[ejthree]

Peach Bowl

(quick side note - looks like i really drove down the total on the Fiesta Bowl - now it's 56. And this cracks me up... my cashout option is still $10 LOWER than my original bet. So I got a good #, but they are still offering me less money to cash out my bet. Go figure.)

This one scares me a little. Especially the line movement today. Normally I don't like "home" teams in bowl games, but obviously this is a little different. No shortage of motivation for the dawgs. I guess they have gone from being the hunter last year to the hunted today and, hopefully, 9 days from now.

Both teams had easier schedules than you'd expect from these conferences. OSU beat ND in the opener, which wasn't as impressive as it seemed at the time. After that, they played one ranked team the entire regular season, finally putting away Penn St in the 4th quarter.

Georgia demolished Oregon in the opener and then only played one ranked team the rest of their regular season. That one happened to be a #1 ranked Tennessee team that Georgia held to 13 points. Hard to imagine going through an SEC schedule and only playing 1 ranked team.

(Another quick side note: Jalen Carter picking up the LSU qb in the SEC Championship Game and holding him in the air like a trophy until the ref blew the whistle was probably my favorite play this season. It was very smart and friggin' hilarious.)

OSU only played two top-forty offenses this year. They gave up 31 to PSU and 45 to Michigan. Their defensive improvement from last year may be more due to facing a lot of bad offenses than anything else.

I feel like Kirby Smart is the only Saban disciple who actually learned anything. He's winning games (and championships) with defense and a balance offense.

Alright, I still have that nagging thought in the back of my head that, somehow, OSU is going to keep this close. But I have to stick with my gut, which tells me Georgia is just a far better team. Maybe OSU will hit a couple big plays early and roll from there. The line is down to 5 now, and I just gotta grab it. I'm as on the fence with the total, too. I think I have to play the under. One thing that I noticed when looking at the Red Zone data for Michigan/TCU is that Georgia settles for a surprising number of fgs. They score in the RZ at the highest % in the country, but 30% of those scores are fgs. For comparison, the number for OSU, which scores in the RZ at the second highest rate, is 20%.

Georgia has, by far, the best RZ defense in the country, allowing a score on 60.7% of RZ drives. The 2nd best is 66.7%. And of the 17 RZ scores Georgia allowed, 9 of them were fgs.

Ohio St's RZ defense has been particularly bad, allowing a score 91.3% of the time, which is 122nd in the country. Luckily for them, they have allowed the fewest RZ opportunities in the country. 67% of those RZ scores were TDs.

Georgia (-5) 4 units
Under (62) 2 units.
OSU TT under (28.5, -125) 2 units

Sooo... I accidentally just bet the under for double what I intended to. I went to cash it out, and it had immediately fallen by $22. So I'm letting it ride. Obviously that means the over is a stone cold lock. Place your wagers accordingly. You're welcome. Let my loss be your gain.

Agree, no reason to over think this one, I have Ohio St +16.5 in a teaser but my bet back will be larger on the Bulldogs. GL Smitty, love this play.

[1837]

Good luck Smitty.Always a pleasure reading you

[Smitty]

Thanks, guys. Brutal day after a promising start.

[redsfann]