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LETS GO OVER - NEVER UNDER - 2022/2023

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Crookity View Post

    Beatdown has been secured

    There are others I am intrigued by today, but gonna call it a week, and put up UCL next . I feel locked in and dont want to start pressing. Cant let greed get the best of you when all cylinders are firing. Good luck gents back soon.
    Dang it. I’ve been full blast on NFL and college football. I missed all these including the one I mentioned. Glad you’re back in good form Crookity.

    Comment


    • #77
      Thanks for the words guys let's keep it going. I would love to see the totals data for weekends back from a 2 week International Break. Like I mentioned last week, I generally have positive results and this past weekend was no different. I think the historical data would show that teams have good offensive showings off the break. Finally, for the first time in weeks the totals market shifted and there were tons of Over results littering the scoreboard. This came after weeks of Unders ruling the slate. I feel we see this trend continue, with many high scoring Champions League affairs.

      I set the table nicely here, as I have some up ended parlays with a few of these games below.

      UCL

      NAPOLI/AJAX OVER 2.5/3 - 125
      I really only need this over 2.5 to close some tickets, and I snagged the in-between line/Asian line on the weekend. Right now you can get the Over 3 around -110 which I would still play, I see at least 3 goals in this contest. This one has slapped me in the face since the lines dropped, and I think it will go up from here. Napoli is a destroying everything in their path, they are very impressive. In the last few weeks these guys obliterated Liverpool putting up 4 , and they went to Glasgow in a tough park and popped 3 on the Rangers. In the last month they also put 2 past a good defensive ACM outfit for a win, and they had a multiple goal game against Lazio who is right at the top of the Serie A standings. Napoli is a deep squad, with a ton of high quality, lethal skill up top. They are in some of the best form of any European Club, and they will be looking for another 3 points on their travels to Amsterdam. Napoli was able to cruise to a win on the weekend putting up 3 against Torino early, they will feel good coming into tomorrow's game. I can't say I have seen a ton of Ajax this year. They look to have been struggling somewhat recently without a win in their last 3 times out. They have conceded a goal in their last 3, so I think Napoli will get theirs. I think Ajax in front of the home crowd should have their opportunities. Overall I think we see chances , and the net pops for 3 or more.

      INTER/BARCA OVER 2.5/3 - 125
      Again, I will take the Asian line at this price, but I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3. Inter is showing some holes on the back line. They have given up 5 goals in their last 2 matches, and the pressure is building as word out of camp is that Inghazi is on the block and might be canned soon. I watched the Inter/Roma game, and going forward is not an issue for Inter Milan. They created a ton of chances, same as the Udinese game a few weeks back. Inter had VAR rob them of a goal, and they hit the woodwork a few times, otherwise they would have scored a few more on the weekend. I think they have been a bit unlucky on the offensive side. Barca will definitely fancy their chances going forward, and should find the net here as Inter has shown vulnerability on the defensive side. This team features 2 squads with a ton of offensive firepower. The 2.5 line is at -163 I would think that should be -175 or -200. I will stick with the line above, and may add depending on what the lines do overnight.

      WEDNESDAY

      SALZBURG/ZAGREB OVER 2.5 -125 - 2 teams that can find the net, and both will fancy their chances of picking up all 3 points.

      RBL/CELTIC OVER 2.5 - 138 - I snagged this one weeks back, the current line is -150, I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3 +110. Celtic needs to get a win here, they can score. RBL has been a mixed bag of tricks this year. They have had some dreadful defensive performances conceding, having given up 2 goals or more 4 times in September, including three games of giving up 3 or more. They are a streaky club, with some firepower up top that can go off for multiple goals at any time. They wasted away bottom feeders Bochum on Saturday cruising to a 4 goal win. They are a different team at home in front of their home crowd. When you look at the numbers Leipzig is actually the most prolific home scoring team right now in the Bundesliga , they score an average of 2.75 goals per game at home, and a dreary 0.50 goals per game on the road. My money is on Leipzig bringing the heat mid week with their firepower up top. To me this has the making of a high scoring affair. I don't think RBL can be trusted to have shored up their defensive ineptitude, and Celtic should get some opportunities. I am looking for a 3-1 Leipzig home win here.

      PSG/BENFICA OVER - I can write this one up later , its another game where I just need over 2.5 to cash a ticket. I also have this potentially as the last game of a 6 game ticket that is half way home. I want to see how Tuesday plays out first, before going ahead and locking in an individual play here. I do see plenty of goals in this match up.


      Back soon , let's keep it moving.


      Last edited by Crookity; 10-03-2022, 07:42 AM.

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Crookity View Post
        Thanks for the words guys let's keep it going. I would love to see the totals data for weekends back from a 2 week International Break. Like I mentioned last week, I generally have positive results and this past weekend was no different. I think the historical data would show that teams have good offensive showings off the break. Finally, for the first time in weeks the totals market shifted and there were tons of Over results littering the scoreboard. This came after weeks of Unders ruling the slate. I feel we see this trend continue, with many high scoring Champions League affairs.

        I set the table nicely here, as I have some up ended parlays with a few of these games below.

        UCL

        NAPOLI/AJAX OVER 2.5/3 - 125
        I really only need this over 2.5 to close some tickets, and I snagged the in-between line/Asian line on the weekend. Right now you can get the Over 3 around -110 which I would still play, I see at least 3 goals in this contest. This one has slapped me in the face since the lines dropped, and I think it will go up from here. Napoli is a destroying everything in their path, they are very impressive. In the last few weeks these guys obliterated Liverpool putting up 4 , and they went to Glasgow in a tough park and popped 3 on the Rangers. In the last month they also put 2 past a good defensive ACM outfit for a win, and they had a multiple goal game against Lazio who is right at the top of the Serie A standings. Napoli is a deep squad, with a ton of high quality, lethal skill up top. They are in some of the best form of any European Club, and they will be looking for another 3 points on their travels to Amsterdam. Napoli was able to cruise to a win on the weekend putting up 3 against Torino early, they will feel good coming into tomorrow's game. I can't say I have seen a ton of Ajax this year. They look to have been struggling somewhat recently without a win in their last 3 times out. They have conceded a goal in their last 3, so I think Napoli will get theirs. I think Ajax in front of the home crowd should have their opportunities. Overall I think we see chances , and the net pops for 3 or more.

        INTER/BARCA OVER 2.5/3 - 125
        Again, I will take the Asian line at this price, but I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3. Inter is showing some holes on the back line. They have given up 5 goals in their last 2 matches, and the pressure is building as word out of camp is that Inghazi is on the block and might be canned soon. I watched the Inter/Roma game, and going forward is not an issue for Inter Milan. They created a ton of chances, same as the Udinese game a few weeks back. Inter had VAR rob them of a goal, and they hit the woodwork a few times, otherwise they would have scored a few more on the weekend. I think they have been a bit unlucky on the offensive side. Barca will definitely fancy their chances going forward, and should find the net here as Inter has shown vulnerability on the defensive side. This team features 2 squads with a ton of offensive firepower. The 2.5 line is at -163 I would think that should be -175 or -200. I will stick with the line above, and may add depending on what the lines do overnight.

        WEDNESDAY

        SALZBURG/ZAGREB OVER 2.5 -125 - 2 teams that can find the net, and both will fancy their chances of picking up all 3 points.

        RBL/CELTIC OVER 2.5 - 138 - I snagged this one weeks back, the current line is -150, I wouldn't be opposed to playing this at 3 +110. Celtic needs to get a win here, they can score. RBL has been a mixed bag of tricks this year. They have had some dreadful defensive performances conceding, having given up 2 goals or more 4 times in September, including three games of giving up 3 or more. They are a streaky club, with some firepower up top that can go off for multiple goals at any time. They wasted away bottom feeders Bochum on Saturday cruising to a 4 goal win. They are a different team at home in front of their home crowd. When you look at the numbers Leipzig is actually the most prolific home scoring team right now in the Bundesliga , they score an average of 2.75 goals per game at home, and a dreary 0.50 goals per game on the road. My money is on Leipzig bringing the heat mid week with their firepower up top. To me this has the making of a high scoring affair. I don't think RBL can be trusted to have shored up their defensive ineptitude, and Celtic should get some opportunities. I am looking for a 3-1 Leipzig home win here.

        PSG/BENFICA OVER - I can write this one up later , its another game where I just need over 2.5 to cash a ticket. I also have this potentially as the last game of a 6 game ticket that is half way home. I want to see how Tuesday plays out first, before going ahead and locking in an individual play here. I do see plenty of goals in this match up.


        Back soon , let's keep it moving.

        Dipping my toe in the water. Let’s get it.

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by TurdofDoom View Post

          Dipping my toe in the water. Let’s get it.

          Comment


          • #80
            my oh my Napoli is something else, what a machine. For any casual fans out there, if you want to invest time into a game to watch, check a Napoli game. These guys plays some stunning ball, absolutely lethal in attack. That one was big as I just need RBL/Celtic and PSG/Benfica over to close another big parlay. As I type this Inter just found one, need a big half at the San Siro to bring it all home.

            Comment


            • #81
              I only followed 1 today….1-0

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by TurdofDoom View Post
                I only followed 1 today….1-0
                You followed the right one, it was the best of the bunch and cashed easily. I really like tomorrow's card. For what it is worth the one I need the most is the RBL/Celtic as I have that one on the back end of a duo from the weekend as well as on its own, and this over would leave me with just PSG/Benfica over 2.5 to close a lengthy parlay ticket. If I get to that stage I will consider the hedge to have a relaxing afternoon lol but don't want to get ahead of myself . In all honesty though I really like all 3 of the plays up top to go over the 2.5. Those 2 lunch time games should be fun. There were some really high scoring affairs today, but I thought more of the games would end up going Over. There were 3 Overs and 5 Unders today, I am thinking that flips for tomorrow we will see.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Nailed the Napoli game. Barca game was an aberration that just happens in the soccer world. Bounces just did not go there way. Love the Salzburg and PSG plays tomorrow.
                  "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    I’m liking that RBL/Celtic play. Let’s see a 2-0 day.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by BASON View Post
                      Nailed the Napoli game. Barca game was an aberration that just happens in the soccer world. Bounces just did not go there way. Love the Salzburg and PSG plays tomorrow.
                      Bason how are you! Let's get those 2 Overs, one of these match days Overs will sweep the board. I have not bothered to look at last years results in comparison, but it seems through the first few weeks of Champs League there have been a lot of low scoring contests. Good luck sir let's bring it home.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by TurdofDoom View Post
                        I’m liking that RBL/Celtic play. Let’s see a 2-0 day.
                        Hoping for a successful matinee affair

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          The RBL/Celtic game was nice and I hedged off a big parlay but I expected alot more from this card. There were 2 unders all day and I had them both.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Crookity View Post
                            The RBL/Celtic game was nice and I hedged off a big parlay but I expected alot more from this card. There were 2 unders all day and I had them both.
                            Shake it off. Chelsea may score 3-4 by themselves Saturday. Man City same thing. Tottenham BHA may have 6-7 goals. Nets will pop this weekend.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Hey Turdo, I can certainly see some goals in that one, but will give you a peek into my head. I try to look at these games every which way. Chelsea I think is going to go on a run with their new coach who is one of the best in the league. Perhaps the game against ACM this week was them breaking the seal, and finally getting off the mat. Chelsea has talent, they should be scoring a lot more than they have, I think they will start finding the net in abundance. Taking that game over may very well rely on Chelsea scoring all the goals, because the Wolves are averaging 0.50 goals per game which is dead last in the league. It is ideal for me when 2 teams can come to the dance and score, in this case I am not sure if the Wolves can do anything. The compact schedule with all these Champions League games sandwiched between League games doesn't make anything easier, as its easy for a team to look ahead. As for Man City they should score 3 -4 themselves. The problem is their lines at even 3 is usually very juicy, and I never go over 3.5 so I will probably sit that one out. Tottenham is a tough nut to crack, they have score alot more goals at home than on the road. In this case though I think both teams can contribute, there should be chances in this one. We will see if it makes my card.


                              FRIDAY BUNDESLIGA
                              BREMEN/HOFFENHEIM OVER
                              This line is past my threshold to play on its own at 2.5 as I see this currently at -175, down from -200. I think this is a good one to pair up in a 2 gamer. We have the 4th ranked scoring team in the League with Bremen at 2.25 goals per match vs. Hoffenheim ranked 6th at 1.63 goals per match. Hoffenheim eats at home their splits show they are better in their own park as they find the net 2 times per game, and Bremen is top 5 in road scoring , they still find the twine at 2 goals per game on their travels. I like what I have seen from Bremen they play hard, and uptempto. These guys never give up, they lead the league in goals scored in the final 10 minutes, and they are coming into this one after thrashing Gladbach 5-1 last weekend. They do give up their fair of chances though which is evident by the fact they have the 5th worst XGA on in the league. Hoffenheim should get their chances at home, and I think Bremen can contribute as well. The last 4 meetings between these 2 teas has been 4-0, 1-1, 3-0, 3-2. I think this one should go over. Good candidates for a 2 game partner would be Gladbach/Koln at -163, or bring your juice down on the Der Klassiker with Bayern/Dortmund.


                              Good luck guys, not as crazy on this card as last week. I am really trying to think this all through with the Champions League matches. This year is unique with the winter World Cup, as the schedule is jam packed, with UCL sandwiched every single week. I think this is effecting results somewhat, tough to tell

                              Back soon.
                              Last edited by Crookity; 10-07-2022, 07:18 AM.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                WORLD CUP

                                I took some profits from last week , and I locked in 2 futures for the World Cup next month. I put out Italy at 10-1 to win the Euros, let's see if I can peg a World Cup winner.


                                ARGENTINA +700 - I think this offers good value. Similar to Italy when they were heading into Euros, Argentina right now is on a 35 game unbeaten streak, with 2 more tune ups to go before the Big Dance. They come in as reigning South American Champs, and are playing as an organized, cohesive unit. Messi looks comfortable and happy playing with the International Squad. This team has super elite talent, playing in some of the best form in the world. I expect this line to come down barring any injuries, or last minute stumbles, locking it in now.


                                BRAZIL +400 - I know the odds are somewhat short, but if these guys are on their game I really don't see who is going to knock them off. I think in 5-6 weeks this line will drop, and after the group stages Brazil will likely be under +300 to win it all, so I am taking this now fully expecting a lengthy run.

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