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BASON 2022-23

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  • #31
    I honestly recommend taking a break during this international break. Most really do not want to play these games. Almost all WC squads are decided, so no one wants to show anything or get hurt. Having said all that, I did make a play in the US game since it is at 8:30 in the morning and I want to watch it:

    BTTS Y -120

    I could go on and on about Berhalter and the US team, but all I will say is that Zimmerman and Long are not very good. Berhalter loves them and they play in the MLS (I firmly believe the US has a MLS quota for Qatar), so they play. My guess is Long gets exposed tomorrow. Should be at least a 1-1 game and we are getting decent odds.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


    • #32
      Call me a sucker but I am betting tomorrow's game:

      USA Even

      I have a ton of issues with how this team is run and with Berhalter. However, given the pathetic performance against Japan and all the negative press surrounding it, I think this team has to bounce back. If they don't, they might as well not make the trip to Qatar. I say 2-0 USA.
      "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


      • #33
        Well, I needed to take a break and get some perspective, but I have had about enough of this US team. I said from the start that Berhalter was not qualified for this job and he has only proven me right. These last two warm ups were embarrassing. He can not get this team ready to play and they are regressing under his leadership. He does not demand nor get the respect from the top players because they know he is not qualified to coach them. At this level, you simply need to put your absolute best players on the field at the positions they are best suited for and let them play (Eric Wynalda went off about this yesterday). Berhalter is arrogant enough to think he has a "system" and the players have to fit into it. He is not qualified to coach any of the teams his players play for, so how are they going to adapt to his system. He should be adapting to them!!

        His system means playing MLS players and putting others out of position. I have also said from the start that Berhalter was chosen because he will do what US Soccer wants him to do. This is why no real coach will take the job. People have called me nuts, but I firmly believe their is a MLS quota for the US national team. His continued use of players like Long, Morris, Acosta, Zimmerman and Arriola just confirm this. Especially, Aaron Long, as his is atrocious. How Ream does not get a look is ridiculous, especially since the US is playing Wales and England. If the US going into the WC with Long and Zimmerman in the back, they are cooked. I also think promises were made to some players to get them to play for the US. Pepi is certainly one of these guys. The kid has potential, but no way in hell should he be on this WC team. Pekok is the best striker they have and he doesn't look like he will even make the team. The man is tearing it up in the Bundesliga and can not make the team ahead of Pepi or Ferreira? Give me a break. Pekok and Sargent are miles ahead of those two. The US has talent but Berhalter has no clue how to use it.

        I could go on and on but I just have no faith in the heads of US Soccer. They are a bunch of bean counters that know nothing about the game. The US certainly has the talent to get out of their group. When they play well they are better than Wales and Iran, but Berhalter will screw this up by not putting the best team on the field. In my opinion, if they do not beat Wales in the first game, they are cooked. So many think they can go into the last game with Iran with a point, win, and move on. Iran is no push over at all. They are just as good, if not better, than Japan who just owned the US. Also, they will be greatly incentivized to bet the USA no matter what the circumstances. They will be heroes.

        I want the US to do well, but the other part of me wants Berhalter gone. The best chance the US will ever have to advance far in the WC will be in the next cycle when they play at home with the best overall talent pool they have ever had. They deserve a coach that recognizes this talent and puts the best team on the field and Berhalter is certainly not the man for that job. I hope he proves me wrong, but I doubt it.
        "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


        • #34
          Back to CL!! Hope to make some $$ today:

          Ajax/Napoli BTTS and Ov 2.5 -120

          This is my number one play today. BTTS is -198 but the parlay is -120? Would be very surprised if this is a 1-1 draw. We have a great home team that always scores against one of the hottest teams in the world right now. I think this is the game of the day. I think we see something like a 2-2 draw, so I like this bet at this number.

          Barcelona -124

          I just have to continue to play against Inter who are struggling. Barca meanwhile are rolling and want to get a road win after losing to Bayern. I thought this line would be higher, so I will gladly take it.

          I like a lot today, but limiting my plays and increasing my bets has been working in CL, so I will continue to limit the plays, but I will play around with parlays using these games:

          Porto +108 or Pk -185
          Frankfurt +230 or +.5 -140
          Bayern TT Ov 3.5 -123
          Ajax Ov 2.5 -166

          You want more risk play Porto and Frankfurt MLs for a +1894 payout. Play them Pk and +.5 it goes down to +666.

          I just have a feeling Frankfurt is going to win today as I have not liked the way Spurs have been playing. Also, hard to like Leverkusen on the road against anyone right now. If Bayern comes to play, and they usually do in CL, they may win 6-0 today.
          "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


          • #35
            Good luck, love the Napoli/Ajax Over


            • #36
              great 1H for the btts and over 2.5 ajax/napoli

              crazy end to 1H of porto v lever. good lord

              thanks for posting, bason. much appreciated!


              • #37
                Thanks Johnny, came close to completely crushing it, but still a good day despite the Barca loss.

                Two for tomorrow:

                Benfica/PSG BTTS and Ov 2.5 -136

                Same bigger play as yesterday. Feel good about Benfica scoring at home and PSG will get theirs.

                Salzburg to win and Ov 2.5 +150

                I can go many ways with this game, but I think this is the best value. Salzburg is a great home team and they hold their own against the best there so I think they win this game. I also expect some goals so I considered the BTTS bet and over or simply the over, or Salzburg, but we get much better odds with the Salzburg win and the over, but not against BTTS and Ov 2.5 here also.

                Will likely use Leipzig in a parlay.
                "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


                • #38
                  Yesterday just sucked. I hate betting on PSG and they proved why once again. Could not believe we did not get a second half goal. Oh well, had a strong run in CL, so it was just a small set back.

                  One game for today:

                  Cologne Ov 3 -103

                  Koln is playing great right now as evidenced by their 3-2 win over Dortmund last weekend. I expect them to score goals in this game. If they come to play, I think they score 3 themselves. Partisan has also been scoring a lot this season but against lesser competition. I considered the BTTS and Ov 2.5 +104, but I prefer the 3 just in case Partisan does not score.
                  "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


                  • #39
                    Koln has been tearing up some offensive metrics in Bundesliga. I have their game against Gladbach circled this Sunday. Good luck


                    • #40
                      Obviously they were looking forward to that one also. Really bad call.
                      "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


                      • #41
                        CL for tomorrow:

                        Dortmund/PSG +130

                        Both these teams have to win at home and I think they both take care of business. Larger play for me. I will probably add Barca to this for a +230 payout as they are in a must win situation also.

                        Zagreb Ov 2.5 -104

                        I know how the last game went and it cost me money, but Zagreb is not going to play the same way that did in Salzburg. I think they will be much more aggressive in a game that they have to win. This should open up the game.
                        "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


                        • #42
                          The schedule is definitely starting to affect these teams as I am just not seeing the quality of play you would expect.  The best teams are resting players and not playing all out.  Certainly making it tougher to cap.  No excuses though, I need to be better.

                          I have had this play circled, and I am still playing it despite the line moving somewhat against me, just not as big:

                          Leverkusen +113

                          This team has been a serious underachiever this year, but it is a team with talent.  Something was going on with the coach, and now that he is gone, I think you will see them play much better as they did in the league last weekend.  Despite their run of play, they still have a chance to move on in their group.  I expect to see a strong effort from them at home in a game they can win.

                          Barcelona -209 or -1 -129

                          Yesterday has me a little scared of this play, but I am sticking with it.  I am laying the lumber but I would still play it at -1.  It is just an absolute must win game for them.  There is no way they want to have to get a result, let alone a win, against Bayern to move on.  Plus, they can not count on Inter not beating Pilzen.  Given all the $$ they spent, it would be a disaster for them not to get out of this group.  If I lose this one, I will likely be done until the WC as I do not want to lose any more of the bank roll I have already.

                          "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


                          • #43
                            Good luck Bason I agree wholeheartedly that the compact schedule is clearly affecting the quality of play, and adds another element that makes capping these games tricky.


                            • #44
                              I want to wait til the WC, but I have to make one play for tomorrow:

                              Bayern +185 or Pk +113 - I just think this line is ridiculous. First, Bayern owns Barca, look at the history. Second, Barca is out. They have to win and Inter has to lose to Pilzen at home. Pilzen is an MLS team. Third, Bayern is a juggernaut in the group stage especially on the road. Finally, even though Bayern is through already, I think their record in this stage matters to them and they would love to bury Barca once again. They just have a history of not letting down in this stage no matter what the circumstances. Plus, I think they are the better team. Maybe it all looks to easy, and the way things have gone recently maybe I should lay off, but at the end of the day there is no way in hell I am passing on this kind of price.
                              "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"


                              • #45
                                like taking candy from a baby