Thursday's MLB Scoop

[Scoop Mackenzie]

I wanted to get the plays up nice and early since Thursday's first pitch is early...


First let me handle the record keeping...

Wednesday:

Regular Plays: 4-2 +2.70 (SF Still pending)
TOP Play: 1-0, +2.00
Wed Overall: 5-2, +4.70

Season Overall: 8-5, +4.04

Will update the record after the late game and be back with fodder for the early Thursday game.

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[Scoop Mackenzie]

Updated fro Wednesday:

Regular Plays: 4-3 +1.50
TOP Play: 1-0, +2.00
Wed Overall: 5-3, +3.50

Season Overall: 8-6, +2.84

Working on info for Thursday now...


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[tig3rs]

scoop, did you see the thread about starting a top 10 list for MLB on MJ? your records are perfect. gonna do the first one monday, and once a week updates, cool?

 

[Scoop Mackenzie]

Tig3rs,

I did see the thread and I think that is a great idea!! Look forward to seeing it!

Back with picks and other thursday stuff...


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[Scoop Mackenzie]

Reds / Cubs Over 10 -115

My line projections has this coming down to 10 @ even money or even 9.5 so I may wait but want to post to get it out there before game time.

On the Reds side of the house look for Josh Hamilton to start today, he has had a great start to the spring and will help this offense score some runs today. Lohse starts for the reds today and he is going to be pitching very aggressivley which will give the Cubs some chances at hitting early.

Kyle Lohse is trying a new approach this season. The Reds right-hander, who today will make his season debut against the Cubs, is putting an emphasis on getting first-pitch outs.

"It puts the hitters a little bit more on the defensive," Lohse said. "I've always been an aggressive pitcher. It just backfires on you when you're trying to make too good of pitches early in the count. "

Lohse suffered a minor hamstring strain during his spring training debut and made four more Grapefruit League starts. In those, which spanned 181/3 innings, he allowed nine earned runs on 17 hits, walked three and struck out 16.

"If you locate your pitches early in counts, you get guys out early in counts," Narron said. "Hitters that are first-ball fastball hitters are the easiest guys to get out with a first-pitch fastball. You just have to locate."

The weather will help out as the wind is blowing briskly to center in a park already known for high scores and behind the plate we have some help as well.

Over is 4-0 in Holbrook's last 4 Thursday games behind home plate.
Over is 4-0 in Holbrook's last 4 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.
Over is 4-1-2 in Holbrook's last 7 games behind home plate vs. Chicago.
Over is 27-13-2 in Holbrook's last 42 games behind home plate.
Over is 38-22 overall in his last two years.

Taking the over in the first game today and FWIW the reds should win it.


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[Scoop Mackenzie]

Blue jays +128

This pick is a pick against Detroit more than for the Jays. If yesterday was a sign of things to come the Tigers bullpen looks shaky at best. Even if it was just an off day it should make for a tired pen today. The weather will be a huge factor today too. Yesterday every pitcher complained about pitching in the cold weather and it was so cold the Tigers even changed the ring ceremony so players would not have to sit out in the cold too long which means we will see the pen in action today.

Chacin has pitched well in years past as an underdog and a lefthander should work in his favor. Finally a good trend for the Jays:
Toronto is 31-14 (+22.8 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons.

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Make sure to check ALL lineups today as getaway day often will mean lineup changes.

 

[Scoop Mackenzie]

Tribe -104

Yesterday I hot them for my first top play of the season and I see no reason to back off them today. They are plain hitting the cover off the ball and starting at the top with a red hot Sizemore.

The white sox pitching has been beat around all series which is not good for Buehrle who has never fared well against the tribe at just 7-10 lifetime and an issue with the long ball. The sox plan for Hafner is walking him to get to Martinez. Martinez went 4-4 yesterday and has a good hitting history against Buerhle. Bad news for the sox. I am staying on the tribe bandwagon one more day.


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[yanno]

Blue jays +128

Chacin has pitched well in years past as an underdog and a lefthander should work in his favor.

Thanks for giving reasons for your picks. It is helpful for people making their own decisions!

Just a note. You may or may not be aware that Chacin has had a terrible spring (nevermind his DUI charge). The various pitchers that the Jays brought in to try out have all done very well, even Josh Towers seems to "be back" to his previous form. The bullpen is very solid with BJ Ryan a legitimate closer. But many think that Chacin could stumble and that his place in the rotation could be in questioin. Of course, as JP Riccardi says, it is his spot to lose right now.

In addition, the pitching coaches have been trying to speed him up during the spring training, taking less time between pitches. Put all that together with the c-o-l-d weather in Detroit today and he could be in for a rough ride. Of course there is a terrific hitting lineup to help you out if you make the bet, I just wouldn't base it on Chacin today. For me the game is likely a pass.

Just a heads up and Good Luck on your season!! I'll be reading you for sure.

 

[Scoop Mackenzie]

yanno,

I am glad you enjoy the information with my posts, I try to post as much when I can. Thanks for the input! I appreciate the information and if the game was not postponed already it would have made me think twice so please if you ever have any information feel free to post it!!

Thanks and best of luck today!


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[Scoop Mackenzie]

I put a few of the trends for this game in RTL's thread but I am adding

TOP PLAY

Atlanta / Philly Over 10 -105

The wind is not only blowing out of the park is gusting over 20 mph's out to right field which sets up great for these clubs today.

If you look at some of the history of today's hitters against today's pitchers you will see they hit them pretty well.

BATTER VS. PITCHER (Career)
vs Adam Eaton
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Jones 8 4 1 1 1 .500
Renteria 8 4 0 0 0 .500
Wilson 3 1 1 0 1 .333


BATTER VS. PITCHER (Career)
vs Chuck H. James
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Helms 2 1 0 1 0 .500
Burrell 8 4 2 0 0 .500
Rollins 8 4 0 0 0 .500
Rowand 3 1 1 0 0 .333

This does not take into some of thebigger hitters in the lineup like Howard for the Phils or McCann for the Braves.

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[Scoop Mackenzie]

adding:

Reds -105

lineups are in

Chi Cubs
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
A. Soriano cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250
M. Murton lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250
D. Lee 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .429
A. Ramirez 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .444
J. Jones rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .125
M. Barrett c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
M. DeRosa 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500
C. Izturis ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .286
J. Marquis p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cincinnati
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
R. Freel cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250
A. Dunn lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .375
B. Phillips 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
K. Griffey Jr. rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500
E. Encarnacion 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167
S. Hatteberg 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
A. Gonzalez ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200
J. Valentin c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
K. Lohse p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000


Reds deeper and I like it with my total today.


That may it for the day for me. I will double check the later games and if something jumps out I will post. If anyone wants any research done on the games I can post more info as well.

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[Scoop Mackenzie]

Boston / KC

I am passing on this game but wanted to comment on it. How can anyone back Dice K today on anything but hype? As mentioned here at the forum today he has had control problems all spring and trouble adjusting to a wider strike zone and a slicker ball. NOW I am not saying take KC just cannot see dropping this kind fo juice on hype with a full slate on deck.

He will also have to adjust to umpires as they adjust to him. I am very anxious to see his start, but not sure if I would bet on it.

Good luck to all who do.

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[Jake DeNiro]

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[Scoop Mackenzie]

Arizona
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
E. Byrnes rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500
A. Callaspo ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500
O. Hudson 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .385
C. Tracy 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .182
S. Hairston lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .308
C. Jackson 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .182
C. Young cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .100
C. Snyder c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .400
E. Gonzalez p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Washington
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
F. Lopez ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333
K. Casto lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .222
R. Zimmerman 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .385
A. Kearns rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .273
D. Young 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333
B. Schneider c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .100
R. Church cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .300
R. Belliard 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .600
J. Bergmann p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


I will have a play on this here in a few seconds...

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[Scoop Mackenzie]

After hitting another top play I have decided too add a few nightcaps on today's card and I have two selections in the first game.


Arz/Was Over 8.5 -110

Winds blowing out, pitchers that are a bit suspect and decent lineups should put this over the total.

Washington +114

If the starters won't play a role I like going gainst a team that used a bunch of the pen in the last series and are back to back with travel for the first time this year.

One more to wrap it up in a few...


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[Scoop Mackenzie]

I know most of these trends were based off last year but they still stand out to me and for tonight...

Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 18-6-2 in Padres last 26 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-3-2 in Padres last 14 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 19-7-1 in Padres last 27 during game 3 of a series.
Under is 9-0 in Hensley's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 8-0 in Hensley's last 8 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-0 in Hensley's last 4 Thursday starts.
Under is 4-0 in Hensley's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Hensley's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Under is 5-0 in Hensley's last 5 road starts.
Under is 7-0 in Hensley's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-0 in Hensley's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-1 in Hensley's last 12 starts vs. National League West.
Under is 10-1 in Hensley's last 11 starts as a favorite.
Under is 16-4 in Hensley's last 20 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 19-7-1 in Hensley's last 27 starts overall.
Under is 19-7-1 in Hensley's last 27 starts on Grass.
Under is 5-2 in Hensley's last 7 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Hensley: 10-1 Under vs. division opponents
Morris: San Francisco 31-15 Under revenging a loss as a home favorite
Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games following a loss.
Under is 6-1-1 in Giants last 8 overall.
Under is 6-1-1 in Giants last 8 on Grass.
Under is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in Giants last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Morris' last 5 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-0 in Morris' last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Morris' last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Morris' last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Morris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Morris' last 6 starts vs. National League West.
Under is 4-1 in Morris' last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 8-2 in Morris' last 10 home starts.
Under is 9-3 in Morris' last 12 starts overall.
Under is 9-3 in Morris' last 12 starts on Grass.
Under is 6-2 in Morris' last 8 starts as an underdog.


and an under umpire

Under is 4-1 in Emmel's last 5 games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
3 of the last 4 he worked with Morris have gone under..

Last play tonight, good luck to all.

UNDER 8.5 +110


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