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  1. Smitty

    To the people that ridicule the rigged sports believers.

    :smilies8why do you think i like clay so much? i'm in on the fix, baby. and to add to kick's point, think about how little money is in the wagering pools at the lower levels. any significant betting would be a huge red flag. so you'd have to keep the wagers fairly small, which means any...
  2. Smitty

    Scandal at World Series of Poker

    i understand the point that no other players were impacted, so you can certainly make the argument that the WSOP should let it slide. but these guys clearly defrauded the WPT for the $1M bonus.
  3. Smitty

    Moving

    so sorry for your loss, hawkeye. it's good that you'll be near family.
  4. Smitty

    Montas

    glad a few of you tagged along. i was at jazz fest in saratoga, and the first time i checked the score it was already 6-0. nice not to have to sweat one out for a change.
  5. Smitty

    Montas

    i'm probably setting myself up for major failure. i went crazy. Montas over 2.5 ER, Pitt TT 1st 3 over 1.5, 1st 5 over 2.5, and over 3.5 for the game. another thing i noticed, which is somewhat telling... in his first start, he was favored (-140, i think) to record over 14.5 outs. today...
  7. Smitty

    Montas

    ok, we know minor league hitters light up Montas, and he's facing a minor league offense today. he's clearly going to get lit up.
  8. Smitty

    Question for kick

    ha! i may stay off that total. or bet it small. i'm now trying to decide if i want to hammer moutet. just feels like a good matchup for him, against a young player who is very inexperienced on grass. who is also riding high after a big win.
  9. Smitty

    Question for kick

    no, i appreciate that. i've done pretty well betting some overs recently. had a very large bet (for me) on evans/paul over today. and i was looking at this over. seems almost too easy for this matchup. which was why i was thinking about keeping an eye on it and betting the winner of set 1...
  10. Smitty

    Question for kick

    this is me overthinking things. looking at brooksby vs evans. the line is practically dead even. both guys are around -300 to win a set. and if you want to bet that the match will only go 2 sets, it's -150. so here's my question... whoever wins the first set... will the other guy still be...
  11. Smitty

    Looks like we have something

    related... a very profitable bet this year has been the pirates under their team total first 5 when skenes pitches. they just don't score for him. i mean, it's probably a good bet every game with that offense. i think i heard the other day they also flat-out don't score when keller pitches...
  13. Smitty

    Montas

    2 innings to go. ok, i don't think he'll really go 2 more innings. but how can this shit be so insane and yet so predictable? he can't get minor league hitters out, but he can shut down the braves. amazing. anyway, i'm already looking forward to betting against montas in his next start.
  14. Smitty

    Montas

    3 innings to go.
  15. Smitty

    Montas

    5-8 on the road since his return, including losing 2 of 3 at miami just before this series. they're averaging 3.9 runs in those 13 games, while averaging 4.2 on the season. hey, i hope atlanta blows them out tonight. i'm on them in a few ways. but this is one of those spots that feels way...
  16. Smitty

    Montas

    well, strider had been mediocre until his last 2 starts, and one of those was against colorado. the mets are pretty big dogs, considering they are 27-11 at home and the braves are 14-26 on the road.
  17. Smitty

    Montas

    Dave mentioned over in the General that Montas isn't ready for this start, so I figured I'd check his stats so far in the minors. It ain't pretty. He made 2 starts in A ball. 4 1/3 innings, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 ER, 4 K. He then made 4 starts in AAA. It got worse. 14 1/3 innings, 26 H, 6 BB, 21...
  19. Smitty

    June 24 on the grass

    never a doubt. :) 2-0 +8.6
  20. Smitty

    ARROW Checking In

    sending you some run-good, dave. i haven't played in ages, so i must have some extra that i'm not using.
  21. Smitty

    June 24 on the grass

    betting against a couple women who just had success on clay, but have little to no experience on the grass. carson branstineCA (-140) 7 to win 5 nao hibino win a set (+120) 3 to win 3.6
  22. Smitty

    Donuts

    to add to that... i have never died while eating a donut. or, for that matter, while drinking a beer. guess i'd better keep eating them donuts and drinking beer. been working so far.
  23. Smitty

    Quick question?

    this guy gets it! :smilies20
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