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  1. #91
    Tue Sept 22: I think there's a higher chance this line goes up rather than down, so I bought it now.
    Bos/Mia Ov 210'.

    Update, Wed Sept 23: Good move buying yesterday as it's at 212 across the board now.
    No Q1 spots, no Temp plays. Same spot active as yesterday, "Bet Under when both teams grade out as a play on the Over." The record on these is 14-9 (lost yesterday, hopefully loses today, too.)
    Last edited by RBD; 09-23-2020 at 01:27 PM.

  2. #92
    Recap: I live to fight another day . . .
    Hit with Bos/Mia Over in a game I really needed.
    I'll be back.

  3. #93
    Five games under .500 again after a win last time in.

    Not system plays, just pure handicapping.
    I made my #'s - side, total and Q's - then compared to the books.
    Largest differential is in Q4, where my # is about 5 pts higher.

    Next I double checked the Q4 avg of both teams, 26 pts each for a combined 52, but with a weighted avg of > 4 pts higher based on recent play than that 52 pts combined for the full season.

    Then I checked tonight's # against the last ten Q4's these teams played,
    Miami's last five vs Bos and LAL's last five vs Den, and 7 of 10 were 52 or higher.

    Hope they both get in the penalty early, and hit some FT's.

    I bought Q4 Ov 52.
    Last edited by RBD; 09-30-2020 at 11:39 PM.

  4. #94
    With a 26-point lead at the end of three, neither team has any urgency to score in Q4.
    It'll be a slow pace, with LA using the full shot clock before putting one up.
    And there's no way to buy off of it.
    This is going to be ugly.
    Last edited by RBD; 09-30-2020 at 11:41 PM.

  5. #95
    Update: Oh ye (me) of little faith ...
    Last edited by RBD; 09-30-2020 at 11:40 PM.

  6. #96
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    1,287
    GREAT CALL on the 4th quarter. Agreed with thought we were in trouble.

    BUT WE WERE NOT

    Hopefully we can use again.

    I like it in the NFL also.

    Keep it up!!!!

  7. #97
    Great job RBD! Thanks! Nice to get paid watching your team win!!

  8. #98
    Coach,
    Thanks. It was a fun bet to watch. Expected the worst going in due to the expected game script based on the score, never got a comfortable amount of pts that gave us a sure winner, never fell too far off the pace to make it look hopeless. Then, with the win in sight and two minutes to go, a couple missed shots and turnovers made it scary close. Like I said - fun.

    And THANK YOU for mentioning the NFL Q4 spot I gave #'s on, wasn't sure anyone took notice or tried it.
    Hope you had it on KC/Balt, I had pocket $ on it. May use it again this week in two different games I have circled. If the spots look good, I'll post as either a buy or just something for bettors to think about if they're looking for some action on the game.

    LakerFan,
    You're welcome. Most of the credit goes to the Heat for not quitting. A lot of teams down by almost 30 pts would have played a slow-paced Q4 and given up, but Miami played hard and put up 30.
    But . . . if it wasn't for your boys swishing that 3 ptr on their final possession it would have been a 1 pt L.

    Recap: Q4 goes Over 52 for a win. Four games under .500 now.
    May hit the same play again tomorrow night.
    With only 6 games left at most, the only way to make up four games and juice is to increase wager size.
    I don't do that in sports I follow and do well with, I'm certainly not doing it in something I only dabble in, like the NBA. I might make two same size wagers in a game if it looks and feels right.
    Back tomorrow if I have a play.

  9. #99
    After hitting a season low at six games under .500, I went conservative/selective, hit two straight W's, 22-26 now.

    And that is where my season will likely end.

    The last play I pointed out here (Mia/LAL Q4's Over if you can get 52 or <) has won in three of the four games. I would not recommend it tonight and am not buying it myself because if Miami, down 1-3 in the series, is losing late in the game (as they have been in most of this series) they may quit in Q4.

    I didn't win overall on the season, gave a lot of winning info, didn't play the systems enough and made bad choices on when to buy. But I hope I gave some useful info on how to 'cap games, different things to look for, different ways to look at numbers.

    NBA and MLB are not my sports. I made a little in MLB, lost a little in NBA.
    NFL doing well so far, college is flat.
    But all of it has been fun . . .

    Thank you to all who stopped by to say "hi" and post opinions.
    See ya in the football forums . . .
    Last edited by RBD; 10-09-2020 at 05:16 PM.

  10. #100
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    1,287
    Thanks RBD it was fun.

    Let's get um in college this week

  11. #101
    You're welcome.
    And thank you for joining in.

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