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  1. #1

    CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

    2020 NFL
    Week 1
    Texans @ Kansas City
    — Chiefs beat Houston 51-31 here in playoffs LY, after trailing 24-0 at one point; Texans won 31-24 here in regular season.
    — Houston covered 8 of last 12 tries as a road underdog.
    — Texans lost four of last five road openers (6-4-1 ATS in last 11).

    — Since 2017, Kansas City is 17-10 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Chiefs started out 1-0 the last five years, scoring 36 ppg in last five openers.
    — Over is 4-0-1 in Chiefs’ last five home openers

    — KC is 7-5 overall in series games, with teams splitting four games in Arrowhead..

    Seahawks @ Atlanta
    — Seattle lost 11 of its last 13 road openers, winning LY at Pitt when Big Ben didn’t play in 2nd half.
    — Last three years, Seahawks are 13-9-2 ATS on the road.

    — Atlanta won last three home openers, by 11-7-4 points.
    — Last two years, Falcons are 6-9-2 vs spread at home.

    — Dan Quinn coaches against his mentor Pete Carroll; Seahawks won 27-20 here LY, just their third win in last nine series games.
    — Teams split Seattle’s last six visits to Peachtree Street..

    Jets @ Buffalo
    — Jets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road openers.
    — Jets are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.
    — Last four years, Gang Green is 4-6-2 ATS in AFC East road games.

    — Bills won six of last nine home openers (8-5 ATS in last 13)
    — Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers as a home favorite.
    — Last two years, Bills are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Under is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven home openers.

    — Home side lost last four series games; teams scored total of only 52 points in their two meetings LY.
    — Jets won 27-23/13-6 in their last two trips to western NY.
    — Teams split last six series games.

    Bears @ Detroit
    — Trubisky is expected to start at QB for Chicago.
    — Bears are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog.
    — Under Nagy, Chicago is 6-9 ATS on the road.
    — 16 of Chicago’s last 19 road openers stayed under total

    — Last two years, Detroit is 7-9 ATS at home.
    — Lions are 9-22-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.
    — Detroit won six of its last nine home openers (over 7-3 in last 10).

    — Chicago won last four series games, winning 23-16/24-20 in their last two visits to the Motor City.

    Packers @ Minnesota
    — Since 2013, Green Bay is 10-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Packers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 NFC North road games.
    — Over is 11-3 in Green Bay’s last 14 road openers

    — Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 26-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Vikings are 10-4 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
    — Vikings won/covered their last five home openers (under 6-0 last six)
    — Minnesota is on its 5th offensive coordinator in six years.

    — Green Bay swept series 21-16/23-10 LY, after going 1-8-1 in previous ten series games.
    — Packers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 3-13-7 points..

    Dolphins @ New England
    — Fitzpatrick is Miami’s QB, with oft-injured rookie Tagovailoa only backup on roster.
    — Since 2014, Miami is 16-25 ATS as road underdogs (5-3 LY)
    — Miami covered six of its last eight road openers.

    — First game in long time where Tom Brady isn’t a Patriot.
    — Since 2015, New England is 24-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
    — NE won 16 of its last 18 home openers (9-7-2 ATS)

    — Dolphins upset New England at home in Week 17 LY, after losing first meeting here 43-0.
    — Miami lost 10 of last 11 visits to Foxboro.
    — Patriots’ last four series wins were all by 18+ points.

    Eagles @ Washington
    — Last three years, Philly is 7-6 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Eagles covered six of last nine NFC East road games.
    — Under is 3-1-1 in Eagles’ last five road openers.
    — Wentz had some injury issues in training camp.

    — Ron Rivera is Redskins’ new coach; his Panthers split their last four meetings with Philly.
    — Rivera was 12-7-1 ATS as a home underdog in Carolina.
    — Washington is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
    — Washington lost five in row, seven of last eight home openers.

    — Philly won last six series games, winning last three visits here, all by 10+ points.
    — Last four series totals were all 47+.

    Raiders @ Charlotte
    — Last three years, Las Vegas is 7-15-2 ATS on the road.
    — Raiders covered four of their last five road openers.

    — New coaches, new QB, no off-season program.
    — Since 2016, Panthers are 14-17-1 ATS at home.
    — Under is 6-2 in Panthers’ last eight season openers.

    — Home side won four of six Las Vegas-Carolina games.
    — Raiders lost two of three visits here, with last visit in 2012- they won here in ’04. Carolina won five of its last six home openers (4-2 ATS).

    Colts @ Jacksonville
    — Under Reich, Colts are 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Colts covered four of last six AFC South road games.
    — Indy lost eight of its last ten road openers, five of last six season openers.

    — Jaguars are 16-30-1 ATS in last 47 games as a home underdog.
    — Jacksonville did cover nine of last 14 AFC South home games.
    — Jaguars lost seven of last eight home openers, last four of which went over total.

    — Home side won nine of last ten series games.
    — Jaguars won six of last nine games with Indy, winning last four played here, three of them by 20+ points.

    Browns @ Baltimore
    — Cleveland has its 9th head coach in the last 13 years.
    — Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-17-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Since 2003, Browns, are 6-9-2 ATS in road openers.

    — Baltimore won its last four Week 1 games, by combined score of 139-20.
    — Ravens won 13 of last 15 home openers (10-5 ATS).
    — Last five years, Baltimore is 12-19-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Ravens’ QB Jackson was limited some in summer camp with a leg injury.

    — Ravens won seven of last nine series games; road team won both meetings LY.
    — Browns lost three of last four visits here, losing by 21-14-2 points.

    Chargers @ Cincinnati
    — First game in long time where Philip Rivers isn’t the Chargers’ QB.
    — Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Chargers covered six of their last eight road openers.

    — Rookie QB Burow gets nod at QB, without having played in a preseason game.
    — Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-1 ATS at home.
    — Cincy is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.

    — Road team in 6-4 in this series.
    — Bengals won four of last six meetings, with teams splitting last four meetings played here.

    Buccaneers @ New Orleans
    — First game in pewter/red for Tom Brady.
    — Arians is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
    — Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.
    — How much of Tampa’s offense can RB Fournette pick up in 10 days?

    — Saints lost four of last five home openers (0-5 ATS).
    — Since 2014, New Orleans is 15-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Average total in Saints’ last four home openers: 62.8.

    — These NFC South rivals split their season series each of last four years.
    — Bucs lost three of last five games in Superdome; they were swept 34-17/31-24 by NO last year.

    Cardinals @ San Francisco
    — Arizona added star WR Hopkins in off-season, figures to be even more pass-happy.
    — Cardinals are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
    — Cardinals lost their last four road openers, by average score of 31-15.

    — 49ers are 7-15-2 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
    — Niners covered twice in last nine NFC West home games.
    — Five of 49ers’ last six home openers stayed under the total

    — 49ers swept Arizona 36-26/28-25 LY, after losing previous eight series games.
    — Four of last seven series games were decided by 3 points.
    — Redbirds won four of their last five visits here..

    Cowboys @ Rams
    — New coach, same offensive coordinator.
    — Special teams coach Fassel, K Zeurlein came to Dallas from the Rams.
    — Since 2014, Dallas is 15-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Dallas covered 10 of its last 13 road openers (5-5 SU last ten)

    — Under McVay, Rams were 14-8 SU in the LA Coliseum.
    — Rams are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
    — Rams won/covered their last five home openers.

    — First NFL game in brand-new Sofi Stadium.
    — Dallas won four of last six series games; they ran ball for 260 yards in their 44-21 win over LA last year.
    — Cowboys lost last visits to Tinseltown 30-22 in ’18 playoffs..

    Steelers @ Giants
    — Last four years, Steelers are 4-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Last five years, Pittsburgh is 14-6 ATS against NFC teams.
    — 10 of Steelers’ last 13 road openers stayed under the total.

    — Giants started out 0-1 seven of last eight years.
    — New head coach and staff; Jason Garrett is the new OC.
    — Giants are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
    — Last four years, Giants are 10-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
    — Big Blue’s last six home openers stayed under the total.

    — Steelers won last two series games 24-20/24-14; their last series win was in ’08.

    Titans @ Denver
    — Since 2014, Tennessee is 14-22 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Tennessee won six of last seven road openers, covered nine of last 12.

    — Denver is 20-10-1 ATS in its last 31 home openers.
    — Last three years, Denver is 3-8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 home openers.

    — Broncos won five of last seven series games, beating Titans 16-0 LY, the game where Tannehill replaced Mariota as Tennessee’s QB.
    — Titans lost their last seven trips here; their last win in Denver was in 1980 (they won an ’87 strike game, but I don’t count those).

  2. #2
    Week 1 Angles - Super Bowl Winners and Losers
    Matt Blunt

    SUPER BOWL COMBATANTS

    With the NFL the next sport up to take their crack at getting through a season in this unique year, hopefully some of the annual angles bettors like to bring up during football season remain relevant.

    And while any February hangover would have had anyone sobered up pretty quick, one of my favorite opening week angles is to look at the season opener for those two teams that went the distance last year.

    The two teams tend to change from year to year, but the Week 1 results do have some strong historical precedent, so let's take a look at some perspectives the Week 1 games in Kansas City and San Francisco.

    Both teams are currently laying at least a touchdown for those season/home openers as well.

    SUPER BOWL WINNERS IN WEEK 1

    Thanks to the Patriots beating Pittsburgh as -5.5 home favorites in Week 1 last year, the reigning champs are now 17-3 straight up (SU) and 13-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the season opener the following year.

    That's a blind system that bodes well for Chiefs fans later in the week, as they come in as a -9.5 home favorite for their opener on Thursday Night.

    SB Week 1 Winner Matchup: Kansas City -9.5 vs. Houston

    Tough to argue against them winning the game with that 17-3 SU record, but it's also could be a huge motivational edge on Houston's side with the revenge factor for them losing 51-31 in the Divisional Round in this stadium a year ago. It's more of how Houston loss that game – blowing the big early lead – that actually might make this a stronger revenge spot then seemingly equal ones, but to bet into that history is tough as well.

    What makes this year's game more convoluted for backing the defending champs though is the fact that these Super Bowl winners since 2000, when laying a TD or more, are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.

    Total bettors should note that the 'over-under' (OU) is 4-2 in those games.

    That's a high success rate on the outright, but not as rosy on the ATS number, and the prospect of anyone winning a game by more than a TD in a season opener after the lack of a regular summer/training camp/preseason games does seem a bit harder to get behind this year.

    But the past doesn't lie, and you can bet at a 17-3 SU rate blind, the Chiefs ML option this week will be tied into a heck of a lot of parlays out there for Sunday's action.

    You can follow the line movements on this matchup and most would expect the Kansas City (-475) market will be driven upwards by kickoff.




    SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1

    The Los Angeles Rams were able to buck most of the negative history Super Bowl losers have in their season opener the following campaign, although the 30-27 win over Carolina last year came with plenty of sweat attached to it.

    The Rams victory as -1.5 road chalk both SU and ATS put the record for defending Super Bowl “losers” in their opener the following year at 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS the past 21 years.

    LA's win also marked the second time we've had a streak of at least three years where these “losers” end up winning their opener the following year, and never have we had a streak of more than three seasons in that regard.


    SB Loser Week 1 Matchup: Arizona at San Francisco (-7)

    Does that mean an Arizona Cardinals ML (+245) selection is in play this week?

    Arizona visits San Francisco to start the 2020 campaign, and with the 49ers losing the Super Bowl the way they did, they do look like the prime profile of a Super Bowl 'loser' that's likely better to be faded in their opener.

    That doesn't necessarily mean a Cardinals ML play is the best way to go about things here, but seven points is a lot to lay for a division game out of the gate, when the last “normal” month the country experienced this year started with the toughest loss in the careers of those 49ers players.

    That is a team that's going to have to prove it to me from the start, at least to show that they are mentally invested in this year from start to finish more than anything. If they aren't and do experience a post-Super Bowl slumber, then these point spreads are going to be quite high for them to cover at least early on.

    With the horrible ATS record Super Bowl 'losers' have had this century, it's as though there are quite a few angles lining up on Arizona for the game.

    Hopefully they don't become too public of a dog.


  3. #3
    451HOUSTON -452 KANSAS CITY
    KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

    453MIAMI -454 NEW ENGLAND
    NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (31 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    455CLEVELAND -456 BALTIMORE
    BALTIMORE is 16-6 ATS (9.4 Units) in home games in the 1rst 2 weeks of the season since 1992.

    457NY JETS -458 BUFFALO
    BUFFALO is 46-28 ATS (15.2 Units) at home when the total is 38.5-42 since 1992.

    459LAS VEGAS -460 CAROLINA
    LAS VEGAS are 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

    461SEATTLE -462 ATLANTA
    ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 3 seasons.

    463PHILADELPHIA -464 WASHINGTON
    WASHINGTON is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    465CHICAGO -466 DETROIT
    CHICAGO is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    469GREEN BAY -470 MINNESOTA
    MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

    471LA CHARGERS -472 CINCINNATI
    LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    475TAMPA BAY -476 NEW ORLEANS
    NEW ORLEANS are 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1992.

    477DALLAS -478 LA RAMS
    LA RAMS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) against the NFC East since 1992.

    479PITTSBURGH -480 NY GIANTS
    NY GIANTS are 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 3 seasons.

    481TENNESSEE -482 DENVER
    TENNESSEE is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

  4. #4
    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Thursday, September 10

    Houston @ Kansas City


    Game 451-452
    September 10, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    129.453
    Kansas City
    148.634
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 19
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 9 1/2
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-9 1/2); Over


    Sunday, September 13

    Seattle @ Atlanta


    Game 461-462
    September 13, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    131.622
    Atlanta
    138.109
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 6 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 1 1/2
    49
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+1 1/2); Under

    Philadelphia @ Washington


    Game 463-464
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Philadelphia
    125.743
    Washington
    124.148
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 1 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+6 1/2); Under

    Green Bay @ Minnesota


    Game 469-470
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    129.285
    Minnesota
    138.813
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 9 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 2 1/2
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-2 1/2); Under

    Indianapolis @ Jacksonville


    Game 467-468
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Indianapolis
    131.769
    Jacksonville
    120.616
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 11
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 7
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (-7); Over

    Chicago @ Detroit


    Game 465-466
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    130.686
    Detroit
    124.029
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 6 1/2
    45
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (+3); Over

    Cleveland @ Baltimore


    Game 455-456
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    130.900
    Baltimore
    137.346
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 6 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 9
    48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+9); Under

    Las Vegas @ Carolina


    Game 459-460
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Las Vegas
    119.780
    Carolina
    122.407
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 2 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Las Vegas
    by 3
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Carolina
    (+3); Under

    Miami @ New England


    Game 453-454
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    131.183
    New England
    129.167
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 7
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (+7); Under

    NY Jets @ Buffalo


    Game 457-458
    September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    132.901
    Buffalo
    130.194
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 3
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Buffalo
    by 6 1/2
    40
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (+6 1/2); Under

    LA Chargers @ Cincinnati


    Game 471-472
    September 13, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    131.148
    Cincinnati
    120.283
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 11
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 3
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Chargers
    (-3); Over

    Tampa Bay @ New Orleans


    Game 475-476
    September 13, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    132.686
    New Orleans
    139.426
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 7
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 3 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-3 1/2); Over

    Arizona @ San Francisco


    Game 473-474
    September 13, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    130.319
    San Francisco
    141.455
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 11
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 7
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (-7); Over

    Dallas @ LA Rams


    Game 477-478
    September 13, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    133.577
    LA Rams
    135.391
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 2
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Dallas
    by 2 1/2
    52
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (+2 1/2); Under


    Monday, September 14

    Pittsburgh @ NY Giants


    Game 479-480
    September 14, 2020 @ 7:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    130.253
    NY Giants
    122.754
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 7 1/2
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 3 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-3 1/2); Under

    Tennessee @ Denver


    Game 481-482
    September 14, 2020 @ 10:10 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    134.094
    Denver
    138.478
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Denver
    by 4 1/2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 1
    41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (-1); Under

  5. #5
    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 1


    Thursday, September 10

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (11 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (15 - 4) - 9/10/2020, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    KANSAS CITY is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, September 13

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (5 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 207-153 ATS (+38.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (+31.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (6 - 10) at BALTIMORE (14 - 3) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY JETS (7 - 9) at BUFFALO (10 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BUFFALO is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LAS VEGAS (7 - 9) at CAROLINA (5 - 11) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LAS VEGAS is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (7 - 9) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 0-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PHILADELPHIA (9 - 8) at WASHINGTON (3 - 13) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHICAGO (8 - 8) at DETROIT (3 - 12 - 1) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CHICAGO is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 10) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GREEN BAY (14 - 4) at MINNESOTA (11 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) at CINCINNATI (2 - 14) - 9/13/2020, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS are 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS are 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARIZONA (5 - 10 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 4) - 9/13/2020, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) - 9/13/2020, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (8 - 8) at LA RAMS (9 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS are 148-192 ATS (-63.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA RAMS is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    LA RAMS is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday, September 14

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) at NY GIANTS (4 - 12) - 9/14/2020, 7:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (11 - 8) at DENVER (7 - 9) - 9/14/2020, 10:10 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  6. #6
    NFL

    Week 1


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Thursday, September 10

    Houston @ Kansas City
    Houston
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
    Kansas City
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


    Sunday, September 13

    Green Bay @ Minnesota
    Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

    Miami @ New England
    Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    New England
    New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
    New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami

    Chicago @ Detroit
    Chicago
    Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Chicago's last 21 games
    Detroit
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home
    Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

    Seattle @ Atlanta
    Seattle
    Seattle is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Atlanta
    Atlanta
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
    Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    Philadelphia @ Washington
    Philadelphia
    Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
    Washington
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games at home

    Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
    Indianapolis
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
    Jacksonville
    Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

    Cleveland @ Baltimore
    Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
    Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Baltimore
    Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
    Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

    NY Jets @ Buffalo
    NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
    Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

    Las Vegas @ Carolina
    Las Vegas
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
    Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games

    LA Chargers @ Cincinnati
    LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
    Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers

    Arizona @ San Francisco
    Arizona
    Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
    Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
    San Francisco
    San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
    Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games
    New Orleans
    New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

    Dallas @ LA Rams
    Dallas
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
    LA Rams
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


    Monday, September 14

    Pittsburgh @ NY Giants
    Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
    NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home

    Tennessee @ Denver
    Tennessee
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Denver
    Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
    Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. #7
    Tuesday’s 6-pack

    Over/under win totals for NFL teams:


    Arizona— 7.5

    Atlanta— 7.5 (under -120)

    Baltimore— 11.5 (under -140)

    Buffalo— 9 (over -120)

    Carolina— 5.5 (over -140)

    Chicago— 8 (-135)


    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 188,941
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    Tweet of the Day
    “Dustin is one of the greatest Chiefs of all-time and I’m grateful I had the opportunity to coach him these past seven years. The longevity of his career here in Kansas City shows you just how consistently he has performed at a high level. Beyond his impact on the field, he was a great teammate and leader. I will always be a huge Dustin Colquitt fan.”
    Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid, who signed with the Steelers Monday

    Tuesday’s quiz
    In the 70’s, a guy named Ray Kroc owned the McDonald’s hamburger chain; which major league team did he also own?

    Monday’s quiz
    Lou Brock began his major league career with the Chicago Cubs.

    Sunday’s quiz
    Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies in their only World Series appearance.

    *************************************

    Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

    13) Southern Mississippi’s football team lost its first game last week, 32-21 to South Alabama as a 13-point home favorite; no idea what happened behind the scenes, but Jay Hopson is out as the Golden Eagles’ head coach. After one game.

    12) When Freddie Freeman hit his first career grand slam Friday, it came on his 232nd career home run; only Sammy Sosa waited longer to hit his first grand slam— his first one was on his 246th career homer.

    11) Jacob deGrom got 35 swings/misses from the Phillies Sunday, tied for most by any pitcher since they started keeping track of such things in 2008.

    Danny Duffy (2016), Clayton Kershaw (2015) also got 35 whiffs in a game.

    10) Eagles signed 41-year old Josh McCown as their emergency QB for this season; he’ll bank $204,000 for that task, all while he lives in Texas. If something happens and the Eagles need him, he’ll take a private plane to Philly; until then, he’ll participate in Zoom meetings with the Eagles’ offense and do his film study at home in the Lone Star State.

    9) Toronto 12, Bronx 7— Blue Jays trailed 6-2, then scored 10 runs in the bottom of the 6th inning; they’re two games up in the battle for 2nd place in the AL East.

    8) Celtics 111, Raptors 89 (Boston leads 3-2)
    — Game was 62-35 at the half, so not much of a game at all.

    7) Clippers 113, Nuggets 107 (LA leads 2-1)
    — Clippers outscored Denver 29-19 in 4th quarter.
    — Lou Williams was +20 in 28:00 off the bench.

    6) Washington Redskins named Dwayne Haskins their starting QB.

    5) Duke Blue Devils named Chase Brice their starting QB; the last two years, Brice was Trevor Lawrence’s backup at Clemson.

    4) Josh Rosen signed on as a backup QB with Tampa Bay, where he re-unites with Byron Leftwich, who was his OC with the Arizona Cardinals.

    3) When this baseball season started, no one figured that Kyle Tucker would be the Astros’ best player, but it is September 8th, and here we are. Tucker is a very good hitter.

    2) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
    AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
    AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
    AL West- Oakland, Houston
    AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, New York

    NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
    NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
    NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
    NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

    1) RIP to the great Lou Brock, who passed away over the weekend; he was one of the great leadoff hitters of all time, stole over 900 bases, won two World Series rings with St Louis. He was also the all-time stolen base leader, until Rickey Henderson passed him. RIP, sir.

    RIP to poker Hall of Famer Mike Sexton, a recognizable face on TV who also passed away this weekend. Sexton won a bracelet at the 1989 World Series of Poker, won over $6M in tournaments; he was one of the TV voices of poker for the last 20 years. RIP, sir.

  8. #8
    Wednesday’s 6-pack

    Over/under win totals for NFL teams:


    Cincinnati— 5.5 (over -150)

    Cleveland— 8.5

    Dallas— 10

    Denver— 7.5 (over -130)

    Detroit— 7 (over -130)

    Green Bay— 8.5 (-120)


    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 189,323
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    Tweet of the Day
    “For the first time in my life, I really have a quarterback……”
    Leonard Fournette, who recently signed with Tampa Bay

    Wednesday’s quiz
    What team did Kevin Durant begin his NBA career with?

    Tuesday’s quiz
    In the 70’s, a guy named Ray Kroc owned the McDonald’s hamburger chain; he also owned the San Diego Padres for a while.

    Monday’s quiz
    Lou Brock began his major league career with the Chicago Cubs.


    *****************************

    Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

    13) Have to be some basketball coaches, both in college and the NBA, who are a little queasy about their jobs today; Billy Donovan won’t be coming back to the Oklahoma City Thunder next year. Thunder went 243-157 under Donovan, 18-23 in playoff games, but may be headed towards a rebuild, so someone else will coach their team going forward.

    If Donovan announced he wants to go back to college coaching, how many schools wouldn’t fire their coach to bring him in? His Florida teams are the last back/back NCAA champs.

    12) Nigel Richards is a man from New Zealand who memorized every French word in the French scrabble dictionary and won the French Scrabble Championship without being able to speak any French. Why would you even attempt that, and how long did it take him?

    Is there big money in Scrabble? Hope the guy made a fortune.

    11) Sounds like college basketball could begin this season with a series of events in bubbles around the country, much like the NBA has done in Orlando, giving teams a few games to play out of conference before Christmas.

    I’ve heard Mohegan Sun in Connecticut, Sioux Falls SD, Houston as potential bubble sites.

    10) It snowed in Colorado, South Dakota this week; it is freakin’ September 9 and it snowed. No bueno.

    Denver Broncos had to practice indoors and right before the end of practice, their star LB Von Miller hurt his ankle and is probably out for the season.

    9) Orioles 11, Mets 2— This has obviously been a weird season, but right now Baltimore is only a half-game out of a playoff spot in the American League. They lost 115, 108 games the last couple of seasons, but now they’re vastly improved at 20-21.

    Random observations; Orioles have very nice hats. Also, their utility guy Pat Valaika is 8-12 against the Mets this season.

    8) Padres 14, Rockies 5— If you bet over 8.5, you got to go to bed early; game was 5-3 after the first inning, 10-3 after the second. San Diego won 1-0 Monday night; they scored 10 runs in first two innings of this game.

    7) September 7, 1993, guy on the Cardinals named Mark Whiten hit four home runs in one game, knocked in 12 runs. Imagine going up against him in fantasy that week? Quite a night.

    I bring this up because two of the four home runs that night were hit against a Reds’ pitcher named Mike Anderson, who was making his major league debut.

    Mike Anderson is the brother of Brian Anderson, who is now the play-by-play guy for the Milwaukee Brewers; he also does NBA games on TNT. Brian Anderson was talking about that game with Stan Van Gundy on the NBA broadcast the other night; they were laughing, but if Mike was listening at home, maybe he wasn’t.

    6) Marlins 8, Braves 0— Rookie Sixto Sanchez threw six shutout innings; Miami is 19-18 and would be in the playoffs if they started today.

    5) NBA Draft was pushed back to October 16; no way the next NBA regular season starts before Christmas, maybe not even until Martin Luther King Day in January.

    4) NBA players apparently bring their own food to the bubble every day; Celtics’ star Jayson Tatum brings his lunch in a Lion King lunchbox, the square, metal kind of lunchbox we all used when we were kids. Pretty cool.

    I had a Volkswagen bus lunchbox back in the day; they opened a new VW dealership near my house and they were giving them away.

    3) Miami 103, Milwaukee 94 (Heat wins 4-1)
    — Giannis Antetokounmpo sat this one out with a bad ankle.
    — Miami’s four subs were a combined +68.

    2) Lakers 112, Houston 102 (LA leads 2-1)
    — Kuzma/Rondo shot a combined 15-21 off the bench.
    — Rockets’ starters other than Harden/Westbrook shot combined 7-19.
    — Houston scored 64 points in first half, 38 in second half.

    1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
    AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
    AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
    AL West- Oakland, Houston
    AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, New York

    NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
    NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
    NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
    NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

  9. #9
    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    NFL teams with most room under the salary cap:
    $34.74M— Cleveland
    $32.24M— New England
    $31.31M— NJ Jets
    $30.95M— Jacksonville
    $26.03M— Washington
    $25.43M— Denver

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 190,589
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

    13) A courageous gambler in New Jersey wagered $22,000 on the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl, at 11-1 odds.

    This isn’t related to that note, but over the last nine seasons, Saints are 2-15 ATS in Weeks 1-2 of each season. New Orleans is favored over Tom Brady’s Buccaneers Sunday.

    12) Over the last decade, which NFL quarterback is the most profitable on to bet on Week 1?
    I’ll post the answer below.

    11) Justin Timberlake has become an investor in a group trying to bring major league baseball to Nashville; I’m thinking MLB will expand to 32 teams fairly soon; Nashville, Portland, Montreal are among the teams who are potential homes for new teams.

    10) What do these people have in common?
    John McCain, John McEnroe, Amy Adams, Bruce Willis

    They were all born overseas, with their parents stationed in the military.

    9) Houston Astros are 22-22, have lot of injuries; they’re 3-14 in California this season.

    8) Other than Jacob deGrom, Mets’ starting pitchers have a 6.47 ERA this year.

    7) Random opinion; Dave Parker should be in the Hall of Fame; Cubs’ TV guys were talking about the greatest RF’s ever and Jim Deshaies is throwing out a few names, all-time greats, and Parker is right in there with them. Hopefully he’ll get his day soon.

    6) The best compliment a coach can give a basketball player; tie game, 2:00 to play, and you’re on the floor. Who finishes a close game is way more important than who starts the game.

    5) Tuesday night, Oakland reliever Lou Trivino became the first reliever since 2005 to pitch the last inning of a win, getting the last three outs on three pitches. That has happened only seven times since 1988.

    4) Duke Blue Devils were 2-4-1 ATS as an underdog last year, after going 27-10-1 from 2013-18.

    12a) Answer to quiz: Over the last decade, Andy Dalton is 6-2-1 ATS in Week 1, making him the NFL’s most profitable QB in Week 1 games. He is the backup in Dallas now.

    3) Toronto 125, Boston 122, 2OT (series 3-3)
    — This was big-time basketball at its finest; high quality, intense game.
    — Four Raptors played 50:00+.
    — Kyle Lowry scored 33; shot 6-10 on the arc, 6-10 inside the arc.
    — Four Boston subs played a total of only 39:00.

    2) LA Clippers 96, Denver 87 (LA leads 3-1)
    — Clippers led 26-12 after first quarter, then held Denver off.
    — Other than Nokic, Denver starters were 10-28 from the floor.
    — Nuggets were down 3-1 in last series, and won that one.

    1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
    AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
    AL Central- Chicago, Cleveland
    AL West- Oakland, Houston
    AL Wild Cards- Minnesota, New York

    NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
    NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
    NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
    NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

  10. #10
    Tech Trends - Week 1
    Bruce Marshall

    Thursday, September 10

    HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)


    Texans 9-3-2 vs. spread last 14 as regular season visitor and 8-3 last 11 as regular season dog.
    Chiefs closed 2019 with wins and covers in last nine, covering last six at Arrowhead (all as chalk) after dropping preceding 4 and 8 of 9 vs. number as host.
    KC also “over” 44-23 since 2016, and last three meetings “over” since 2017.
    Teams split two games at Arrowhead last season.

    Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends


    Sunday, September 13

    MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


    Prior to upset in Week 17 last December, Dolphins had lost and failed to cover previous seven at Gillette Stadium, and had lost 10 in a row outright at Foxborough.
    Dolphins closed fast in 2019, covering 9 of last 12, all as dog.
    Patriots dropped 5 of last 7 vs. number in 2019, and now “under” 19-10 since mid 2018.

    Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots and “under,” based on extended trends

    CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Head coach Kevin Stefanski debut for Browns.
    Ravens closed 2019 regular season winning last 12 outright and covering 8 of last 9.
    Browns, however, did deal Baltimore its only regular season home loss in Week 4 and have covered last two at M&T Bank Stadium.
    Cleveland only covered 4 of last 12 a season ago after that win over Ravens.

    Tech Edge: Ravens, based on recent trends

    NY JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Road team has won and covered last four meetings.
    Bills were just 1-4 vs. spread at Orchard Park last season.
    Buffalo on 23-9 “under” run since early 2018.
    Jets “under” 5-1 last six in 2019.

    Tech Edge: Jets and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends

    LAS VEGAS at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Head coach Matt Rhule debut for Panthers.
    Raiders lost 5 of last 6 SU and dropped 5 of last 7 vs. line in 2019.
    Also “under” 6-1 last 7 in 2019, and “under” 21-11 since 2018.
    Panthers however closed 2019 dropping last 8 outright and just 1-6-1 vs. spread in those games, and only 3-7-1 vs. number last 11 at Charlotte since mid 2018.
    Panthers “over” 11-5 last season.

    Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders, based on team trends

    SEATTLE at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Seahawks on 9-3-1 spread run away from CenturyLink Field in regular season.
    Visiting team is 12-4-1 vs. number in Seattle regular-season games since late 2018.
    Falcons covered last 4 and 7 of last 9 in 2019, also winning 6 of last 8 outright.
    'Hawks “over” 16-8 in regular season play since mid 2018.

    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends

    PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Head coach Ron Rivera debut for Washington (if he’s healthy).
    Philly has won and covered last four in series, both meetings “over” last season.
    Washington 2-8 vs. points last 10 at FedEx Field.

    Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team and series trends

    CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bears have won all four meetings since 2018, covering three of those.
    Though note Chicago enters 2020 on a 4-13 spread skid.
    Bears were 1-7 vs. line as visitor in 2019 after winning and covering 4 of last 5 away in 2018.
    Lions dropped last nine outright a year ago and covered just 2 of last 11 in 2019.
    Detroit also “under” 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field.

    Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends

    INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Jags lost and failed to cover 6 of last 8 a year ago.
    But they have won and covered last four as series host vs. Colts (five if counting London game in 2016) and were 3-1 vs. line getting 6 or more points a year ago.
    Jags 8-1-1 vs. number against Indy since 2015.

    Tech Edge: Jags, based on series trends

    GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Packers won and covered both meetings last season.
    Vikings however have won and covered last four and five of six openers under Mike Zimmer.
    “Unders” 9-2 last 11 in series.

    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on series trends

    L.A. CHARGERS at CINCINNATI (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Chargers fell apart late 2019, losing and failing to cover 6 of last 7.
    Bolts 3-7 vs. line last ten away from home, and just 1-8 laying points a year ago.
    Cincy only 3-10-1 vs. spread last 14 at Paul Brown Stadium but was 3-2-1 last six as dog in 2019.

    Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends

    ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Cards played Niners tough last season and very unfortunate to get push out of second meeting after covering in desert.
    Big Red 4-0-1 vs. spread last five in series and on 11-5-1 spread uptick since late 2018.
    Cards 6-1-1 vs. spread away in 2019, now 7-1-1 vs. line last nine as a visitor.
    Niners were just 3-4-1 vs. spread at home in regular season of 2019.

    Tech Edge: Cards, based on series and team trends

    TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Bruce Arians only 5-10-1 vs. line in his Bucs debut season a year ago.
    Note - his second year at Arizona in 2014 produced 11-5 SU and spread marks.
    Bucs “over” 12-4 in 2019, Arians teams now “over” 27-12 dating back to mid 2016 with Cards.
    Over now 5-2 last seven in this series.
    Saints only 4-9 vs. number last 11 at Superdome.

    Tech Edge: “Over” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

    DALLAS at L.A. RAMS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

    Rams open new SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
    Cowboys won big 44-21 last December vs. LA at Arlington.
    Dallas “over” 22-12 since 2018, both meetings vs. Rams “over” past two years.
    Rams were only 5-9 vs. spread their last 14 as host at Coliseum.
    McVay has covered in openers the past three seasons.

    Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Rams, based on “totals” and team trends


    Monday, September 14

    PITTSBURGH at NY GIANTS (ESPN, 7:15 p.m. ET)


    Head coach Joe Judge debut for New York.
    Steelers “under” 12-4 last season (almost all of it minus Big Ben), now “under” 17-6 last 23 since late 2018.
    Steel also just 1-6-1 last eight as visiting chalk since 2018.
    Giants “over” 16-8 since mid 2018 but just 2-8 vs. points last 10 at MetLife.

    Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

    TENNESSEE at DENVER (ESPN, 10:10 p.m. ET)

    Broncos blanked Titans 16-0 in Week 6 last season, and quietly covered 8 of last 12 for Fangio in 2019.
    Denver on 17-7 “under” run since mid 2018 (9-7 “under’ in 2019).
    Titans covered 5 of their last 6 on road down the stretch last season.

    Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends

  11. #11
    Hot & Not Report - Week 1
    Matt Blunt

    Who's Hot

    Over the past three years, in Week 1, playoff teams from the previous year are 18-4-1 SU (13-10 ATS) when playing a non-playoff team from the previous year.


    Fading the Super Bowl loser thought always gets tossed out a lot this week (myself included), but those teams are still a part of this massive group that you can basically pencil in for outright wins in Week 1.

    With five SU wins coming at the expense of a point spread victory, it's clear some of these playoff teams could be slightly overvalued the following year. And with no preseason to base anything off of bettors, opinions based off last year's production have to be formed.

    But at least the past three Week 1's have shown that when you put these playoff teams up against non-playoff foes, the outright win seems to always get there.

    The 2019 playoff teams in the AFC were:

    Baltimore
    Kansas City
    New England
    Houston
    Buffalo
    Tennessee

    The 2019 playoff teams in the NFC:

    San Francisco
    Green Bay
    New Orleans
    Philadelphia
    Seattle
    Minnesota

    Going through the Week 1 schedule brings you to eliminating Houston and Kansas City from this equation with them playing one another on TNF, so not applicable there. The same can be said for the Green Bay-Minnesota game as well on Sunday.

    Which leaves outright thoughts on Baltimore (-7.5) over Cleveland, New England (-6.5) over Miami, Buffalo (-6.5) over NY Jets, and Tennessee (-1) over Denver on MNF as options from the AFC side of things.

    In the NFC, Seattle (-2) over Atlanta, Philadelphia (-6.5) over Washington, San Francisco (-7) over Arizona, and New Orleans (-3.5) over Tampa Bay fit the above trends.

    It's interesting to note that five of those eight games all have point spreads within a point of a full TD, meaning the SU win and ATS loss expectation is fairly reasonable. With it happening five times already in just three seasons (1.66 times per year), guessing at least one of those TD favorites will squeak out a nail-biting victory can go along with that.

    Which does put that Arizona/San Francisco game in an interesting light for those that definitely want to fade the Super Bowl loser. Would anybody be surprised by a 49ers win by three or four points in that one?

    But an 80% outright win rate to start the year for these playoff teams is tough to ignore even in these odd times. Flipping back and forth between some of these options for Survivor pools might have some easy advancements to next week on the horizon, but remember at the same time, 1.33 times per year one of these teams has lost outright as well.

    Unless it's Tennessee or Seattle falling as small road chalk, you find that diamond in the rough this week and go ML shopping, it will be a nice start to the year.


    Who's Not

    AFC playoff teams from the previous season are 8-1 O/U in Week 1 against any opponent the past two seasons


    Horrible trend for 'under' bettors, but a swoon one for 'over' players, and it's a shame that it only applies to two of a potential six games this year – they are both prime time though.

    They are the TNF game between Houston and Kansas City, and the MNF game between Tennessee and Denver.

    Prime time 'overs' always get a lot of love, so expect even more of it to come on these two games before things go the other way around.

    A Houston/KC game needs no hard con to convince someone to look 'over' there already, with the 51-31 game they had in the playoffs back in January, and everybody wants points from Mahomes when they sit down to watch him play. That combined with this run of 'overs' for AFC playoff teams added on top of it, may actually make the 'under' a good look on TNF when you consider how high the number might get, and how sloppy the football might look on the field with minimal practices, no games etc.

    Waiting on the MNF game is a lot easier, because by then we'll already have a full Sunday slate digested and assessed just for how sloppy or sharp some play looked. The market will react significantly to those results for the Week 2 lines, but the Titans/Broncos total of 40.5 has only dropped from it's opener of 42.

    That's hardly a concern for those looking to ride this 'over' run, because you already know that 42 is going to likely be the peak this total sees. If you are comfortable getting that many points from those two teams on MNF, then this O/U run only helps the cause.

  12. #12
    THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    HOU at KC 08:20 PM
    KC -10.0
    O 53.0

    +500 +500

  13. #13
    COMPLETED PICKS

    Past Completed Picks

    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


    09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

    Sept. Totals.......2-0-0........100.00%...+10.00
    Last edited by Cnotes53; 09-13-2020 at 10:43 PM.

  14. #14
    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    NFL teams with most room under the salary cap:
    $34.74M— Cleveland
    $32.24M— New England
    $31.31M— NJ Jets
    $30.95M— Jacksonville
    $26.03M— Washington
    $25.43M— Denver

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 190,589
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

    13) Chiefs 34, Texans 20:
    — Chiefs ran ball 34 times for 166 yards; they threw 32 passes.
    — KC scored four of the first times they had the football.
    — 15,895 fans attended this game on a drizzly night at Arrowhead Stadium.
    — In first three series for both teams, KC ran 35 plays, Houston 16

    12) With no teams having an off-season program, I’m thinking its going to take a few weeks for offenses to catch up to where they normally are. 34-20 sounds high-scoring, but Houston got couple of scores in garbage time. Pass patterns mostly seemed a lot shorter than normal.

    11) Tigers 6, Cardinals 3— Detroit scored five runs in the top of the 7th to earn the split of this twinbill, after losing their previous two games by a combined score of 31-2.

    10) Red Sox 3, Rays 2— Rookie Bobby Dalbec homered in his 5th consecutive game.

    9) A’s 3, Houston 1— Sean Manaea got thru seven innings on 61 pitches; you just never see that anymore, less than 9 pitches per inning.

    8) Miami 31, UAB 14:
    — Total yardage was 495-285, Miami
    — Hurricanes ran ball for 337 yards.

    7) Royals 11, Indians 1— Rookie Brady Singer had a no-hitter into the 8th inning.

    6) White Sox are 13-0 vs lefty pitchers; Arizona is 2-10.

    5) Atlanta 7, Washington 6— Freddie Freeman knocked in 10 runs the last two games; he is the first Brave to knock in 4+ runs in consecutive games since Mark Teixeira, in 2007.

    4) Arizona 5, Dodgers 2— If you have Mookie Betts on your fantasy team, last night was your lucky night; Betts played 2B, so now he’s eligible at 2B in a lot of fantasy leagues, which would be a large advantage over most teams. It was his 16th career game at second base, first one in two years.

    LA put Walker Buehler (blister) on the IL before this game, then Dustin May left one inning after he was hit in the foot by a line drive.

    3) Longest NFL playoff droughts:
    17 years- Cleveland
    12- Tampa Bay
    9- NJ Jets

    2) Lakers 110, Houston 100 (LA leads 3-1)
    — Davis had 29 points, 12 rebounds five assists for LA.
    — Harden was 2-11 from the floor, 16-20 on foul line. Harden was only Rocket starter with a =/- better than minus-10; he was even.

    1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
    AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
    AL Central- Chicago, Minnesota
    AL West- Oakland, Houston
    AL Wild Cards- Cleveland, New York

    NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
    NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
    NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
    NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

  15. #15
    NFL Underdog picks and predictions Week 1
    Jason Logan

    Tom Brady was bending the rules the second he got to Tampa Bay, giving his team a headstart on its prep for the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. The Bucs are 3.5-point road underdogs in the season opener.

    Welcome to NFL Underdogs.

    For those who ingest my NFL betting picks each week, you may be wondering, “what’s with the cookie-cutter headline?”

    Well, it turns out the old one wasn’t SEO friendly. And while you all were kind enough to come back to the column over the course of the season, there’s a whole world of football bettors who don’t know it exists. But rest assured: this is NFL Underdogs.

    Different look. Same great taste.

    Now, for those stumbling across our “NFL picks and predictions for Week 1” for the first time (and hopefully that’s a lot of you, if the SEO guys are right), let’s review the rules for the column:

    Rule No. 1: I can only pick NFL point spread underdogs.

    That is all.

    It’s a much simpler rule to follow than the laundry list facing NFL teams and their dos and don’ts for the 2020 season. And if anyone knows about the rules, it’s Tom Brady.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints pick

    The ink was barely dry on Brady’s new contract before he started testing the rules.

    Brady was allegedly jumping the fences at local parks to work out during the COVID-19 quarantine in April and got his guys on the field as early as May, which drew some sideways glances (but was ultimately cleared by the NFL).

    You can take Tom out of New England, but you can’t take New England out of Tom. Could that rule-bending be the edge Tampa Bay needs against the Saints in Week 1?

    This offense is so much better than Brady’s depth chart in New England last season and far more stable without Jameis Winston effectively “punting” the ball on almost 5 percent of his pass attempts. It’s a trickle-down effect that will ultimately help the defense, which ranked among the top stop units in 2019 according to the advanced metrics and enters Year 2 under Todd Bowles.

    This is one of maybe two times we’ll get Brady and the Bucs as underdogs this season (according to lookahead lines) and that half-point hook is worth it, for what should be an awesome opener.

    PREDICTION:
    Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)


    Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions pick

    What’s the difference between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky?

    While football is considered a game of inches (hiyo!), paychecks may be the only gap between the Bears’ quarterback options, as far as oddsmakers are concerned.

    Foles may be a Super Bowl folk hero but he threw just 117 passes in limited action for Jacksonville in 2019 and those fairy-tale playoff performances happened once upon a time.

    When it comes to impact on the spread, the Bears’ QBs are interchangeable at this point. But, for what it’s worth, Trubisky owns a passer rating of 132.56 in three career meetings with Matt Patricia’s Lions, totaling 866 yards (on 68-for-91 passing) with nine touchdowns and just one INT.

    Trubisky won’t need to match that output at Detroit in Week 1 — not with the way this Bears defense is shaping up.

    In 2019, Chicago overcame injuries to key members of the stop unit and a transition to a new coordinator to rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders but lacked a potent pass rush. This season, the Bears get those guys back – and then some – and should flirt with their sack totals from 2018. That’s bad news for Detroit QB Matt Stafford.

    PREDICTION: Chicago +3 (-113)


    Las Vegas Raiders vs Carolina Panthers pick

    “Into the Unknown” is not only the theme song from my time in COVID quarantine (my kids went HAM on Frozen 2), but it could be the slogan for NFL Week 1 betting. Honestly, no one knows what the hell is going to happen.

    With shortened camps, limited practices, and no preseason, familiarity is worth its weight in gold in the opening games of the NFL schedule. And while the Panthers have plenty of new faces in 2020, there’s something very familiar with this offense.

    Carolina’s combo of QB Teddy Bridgewater and new offensive coordinator Joe Brady won’t take long to gain traction. Brady helped guide the LSU Tigers to the national title with an offensive scheme nipped from the Saints (his former employers), and Bridgewater just so happens to be a former New Orleans quarterback with the two paired up in 2018.

    The Panthers have plenty of options on offense with a trio of talented receivers and, of course, Christian McCaffrey. Expect a slow-and-steady approach from Carolina in Week 1, maintaining possession and controlling the tempo, as to not expose a soft defensive unit more than it has to.

    The Raiders defense was bad last year and doesn’t look any better, leaning on a lot of young players to grow up quick. This line actually opened pick’em back in the spring, but I’ll gladly take the field goal with the home team.

    PREDICTION: Carolina +3 (-110)

    Last season: 30-28 ATS
    Last two seasons: 65-49-1 ATS

  16. #16
    NFL Week 1 Injuries, Weather
    Patrick Everson

    Von Miller suffered an ankle tendon injury in practice Tuesday, and he could require season-ending surgery. The SuperBook moved Titans-Broncos from pick 'em to Tennessee -2.5.

    NFL Week 1 odds are often tricky under normal circumstances, never mind those under which we now find ourselves, coming back from a pandemic. Several factors contribute to how and why games are being bet, some of which tend to get overlooked.

    Week 1 Injuries

    Denver Broncos: Normally, it takes an injury to a starting quarterback, or at least a superstar running back or wide receiver, to move a line 2.5 points. Bettors found out Tuesday night that Broncos stud linebacker Von Miller is worth that much, too. Miller suffered an apparent freak injury to an ankle tendon at the end of Tuesday's practice, and it's possible he's out for the season. Said Eric Osterman, oddsmaker and manager at The SuperBook at Westgate: "We moved the Week 1 line from pick to Titans -2.5." And that's after the line had already moved from Broncos -3 to pick, with much of that shift occuring in the past week, for the second game in a Monday night doubleheader.

    Philadelphia Eagles: Oddsmakers are closely watching running back Miles Sanders ( hamstring) and right tackle Lane Johnson (lower-body injury), among others. Sanders is now probable to play, but Johnson remains questionable as of Wednesday afternoon. "The Eagles seem to be a little banged up, which has moved the line a little bit in that game. We are at Eagles -5.5 right now, down from the opening number of -6," said Eric Osterman, manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook at Westgate. "Those are really the only injury concerns we have right now, besides Von Miller."

    Dallas Cowboys: Dallas on Monday put right tackle La’el Collins (hip) and linebacker Sean Lee (sports hernia) on injured reserve, meaning those two are out the next three weeks minimum. However, there was no impact on the line at The SuperBook, with the Cowboys still 3-point road favorites against the Rams.

    Cleveland Browns: Center JC Tretter, who had minor surgery for a knee issue in mid-August, returned to practice Monday. The Browns actually closed in a bit Monday, from +8 to +7.5 at The SuperBook for Sunday’s road game against the Ravens.

    Philadelphia Eagles: Quarterback Carson Wentz (groin) is apparently now good to go for the season opener at Washington. But oddsmakers never thought otherwise, as the line remained Philadelphia -6 at The SuperBook.

    Cincinnati Bengals: Wideout AJ Green (hamstring) is expected to be fully cleared to play Sunday at Cleveland. There was no impact on the line, which remained Bengals +7.5 at The SuperBook.

    Find the latest injury news for every game with our NFL Injury Report.

    Week 1 Weather

    Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: Rain is expected throughout the day Thursday in Kansas City, including a 90 percent chance of evening showers, accompanied by light wind. Over the past few days, the total dropped from 55 to 54, and on Monday, it was at 54.5. The total opened at 56.5 in May.

    New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Rain is expected throughout Sunday morning in Buffalo, with a chance of showers in the afternoon, which could play a role in this 1 p.m. ET start. However, oddsmakers already projected this game to be a less-than-exhilarating offensive display, and the total remained at 39 Monday at The SuperBook, the lowest of all Week 1 games.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team: There’s a 50 percent chance of rain in D.C., with possible thunderstorms later in the afternoon Sunday, which could impact this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. But the total remained 43 Monday at The SuperBook.

    Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are predicted, with a 50 percent chance of rain during the day. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. But there’s been no impact on the total, stuck at 45 at The SuperBook.

    Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers: A 50 percent chance of rain/scattered thunderstorms exists in Charlotte for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET meeting. The total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5 on Monday at The SuperBook.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: The forecast in Cincy calls for mostly cloudy conditions and scattered thunderstorms in the morning, but this matchup doesn’t kick off until 4:05 p.m. ET. Still, the total dropped a point Monday, from 44 to 43.

  17. #17
    Sunday’s 6-pack
    Major league leaders in runs scored:


    46— Fernando Tatis, SD
    43— Dansby Swanson, Atl
    39— Mike Trout, LAA
    38— Freeman Atl, TAnderson CWS, TTurner Wash
    37— Manny Machado, SD
    35— Story Col, Abreu CWS, Yastrzemski SF, Conforto NYM, Hoskins Phil


    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    Quote of the Day
    “It’s not real baseball, but it’s fine for this year, and I hope we never do it again.”
    Clayton Kershaw, talking about the new extra inning rules

    Saturday’s quiz
    LA Clippers started out as the Buffalo Braves; they had Bob McAdoo, Jim McMillian, Ernie DiGregorio, some good players- they went 49-33 in 1974-75 under Jack Ramsay, who two years later won the NBA title coaching Portland.

    Friday’s quiz
    In the 1976 movie All the President’s Men, Robert Redford played Bob Woodward.

    Thursday’s quiz
    William Henry Harrison was President for only 31 days, before he died of pneumonia.


    ********************************

    Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

    13) Like everything else in 2020, the first real Saturday of college football was odd, capped off by a Coastal Carolina-Kansas game that kicked off at 9pm local time in Lawrence, followed by a 1am ET Korean baseball game. Fun for the whole family.

    I’m not a scientist, but I’m pretty sure playing football in this environment isn’t a great idea, especially when the players do not get paid, but college sports is big business, and if you don’t believe that, well Oklahoma charged $55 or so on pay-per-view for their opener against I-AA juggernaut Missouri State. Sooners won 48-0; thrilling.

    12) If the presidents/AD’s in the Big X knew what was going to happen on the field Saturday, they might’ve thought a quarantine wasn’t such a bad idea.

    Coastal Carolina 38, Kansas 23— Second year in row the Chanticleers upset Kansas in Lawrence; this game was 28-0 until just before halftime.

    11) Texas Tech 35, Houston Baptist 33— Houston Baptist is I-AA, so this is kind of like a loss for Tech, except it isn’t officially a loss. I mean, Tech was a 40-point favorite and won by 2.

    10) Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14— Ragin’ Cajuns’ DB’s dominated the Iowa State receivers; it helped that the refs didn’t seem interested in throwing any flags for defensive holding or PI. Iowa State was a 13-point favorite.

    Louisiana missed two easy field goals, but ran a punt back for a TD and also ran a kickoff back for a TD. Saturday looked like it was a very rough day for placekickers, especially young ones.

    9) Arkansas State (+14.5) 35, Kansas State 31— Arkansas State’s coach is Blake Anderson; he deserves some joy in his life- his wife passed away just before last season started, and then he lost his dad this offseason. Guy is a good coach who could be moving up soon.

    8) Game of the Day: Tex-San Antonio 51, Texas State 48 OT— Down 41-35, Texas State ran a punt back 91 yards for a TD with 1:13 left, but they missed the PAT, then missed a short FG in overtime, and the Roadrunners escaped with a win in Jeff Traylor’s debut as USTA’s coach.

    Texas State played without its starting QB, who sat out with COVID-related issues.

    7) Saturday’s football upsets:
    — Louisiana (+13) 31, Iowa State 14
    — Arkansas State (+14.5) 35, Kansas State 31
    — Georgia Tech (+13) 16, Florida State 13
    — Coastal Carolina (+6) 38, Kansas 23

    6) Kansas State (8-1) won the SouthPoint’s prop bet by scoring the first touchdown of the day; the favorites were North Carolina (3-1), Appalachian State (7-2).

    5) Some NFL guys had big paydays Saturday; Saints’ RB Alvin Kamara, Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook and Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp all got contract extensions.

    4) Oakland A’s got some very bad news; 3B Matt Chapman will have hip surgery, is out for the season. Thats a big loss- they somehow acquired Jake Lamb from Arizona right before I typed this. They must pay Arizona under the table to cut him, then they signed Lamb up when no one else claimed him.

    3) Arizona/Red Sox are first two teams to clinch their under bets in season win total wagering.

    2) Lakers 119, Rockets 96— Lakers win series 4-1; you get the feeling Mike D’Antoni will be the scapegoat for Houston’s 2nd-round exit. Now the Lakers hope Denver can force a Game 7 against the Clippers tonight, just to tire both teams out.

    1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
    AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
    AL Central- Chicago, Minnesota
    AL West- Oakland, Houston
    AL Wild Cards- Cleveland, New York

    NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
    NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
    NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
    NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

    15 days left in the season, and the Marlins are still a playoff team.

  18. #18
    WEEK 1 WEATHER TO WATCH

    New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Rain is expected throughout Sunday morning in Buffalo, with a chance of showers and winds up to 20 mph in the afternoon, which could play a role in this 1 p.m. ET start. However, oddsmakers already projected this game to be a less-than-exhilarating offensive display, witht the total at 39.5 points, the lowest of all Week 1 games.

    Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are predicted, with a 60 percent chance of rain and winds up to 15 mph during the day. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. But there’s been no impact on the total, stuck at 45 at The SuperBook.

    Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Early in the week, rain was predicted for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET kickoff, and the total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5 on Monday at The SuperBook. However, Saturday's forecast shows just a 10 percent chance of precipitation, and the total rebounded to 48.

    Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: The forecast in Cincy calls for mostly cloudy conditions and scattered thunderstorms in the morning, but this matchup doesn’t kick off until 4:05 p.m. ET. Still, the total dropped from 44 to 41.5 at The SuperBook.

    Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: The forecast for the first Monday night game initially called for a 40 percent chance of showers. It's now down to a 10 percent chance of precipitation, with breezes of 10 to 15 mph.

    Get all the gametime conditions with our NFL Weather Report.

  19. #19
    WEEK 1 INJURIES TO WATCH

    Denver Broncos: Normally, it takes an injury to a starting quarterback, or at least a superstar running back or wide receiver, to move a line 2.5 points. Bettors found out Tuesday night that Broncos stud linebacker Von Miller is worth that much, too. Miller suffered an apparent freak injury to an ankle tendon at the end of Tuesday's practice, and it's possible he's out for the season. Said Eric Osterman, oddsmaker and manager at The SuperBook at Westgate: "We moved the Week 1 line from pick to Titans -2.5." And that's after the line had already moved from Broncos -3 to pick, with much of that shift occuring in the past week, for the second game in a Monday night doubleheader. On Saturday, Broncos star wideout Courtland Sutton (shoulder) was listed as questionable, and The SuperBook moved to -3.

    Chicago Bears: Star linebacker Khalil Mack is questionable for Week 1 with a knee issue, as is running back David Montgomery and versatile wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. New defensive end Robert Quinn is doubtful after missing practice with an ankle injury. Chicago moved from +3 to +2.5 Friday night with money on the Bears, but this line could come back to a field goal by Sunday.

    Detroit Lions: Detroit could be low on receiving targets, with WR Danny Amendola (questionable) and Kenny Golladay (doubtful) nursing injuries. The total for the Week 1 opener versus Chicago opened at 44.5 in the spring and is down to 42.5 entering the weekend.

    Philadelphia Eagles: Oddsmakers are closely watching running back Miles Sanders (hamstring) and right tackle Lane Johnson (lower-body injury), among others. Sanders is now probable to play, but Johnson remains questionable. "The Eagles seem to be a little banged up, which has moved the line a little bit in that game. We are at Eagles -5.5 right now, down from the opening number of -6," said Eric Osterman, manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook at Westgate.

    Los Angeles Chargers: Cluster injuries can have a big impact on the outcome, and L.A. could miss two veteran linemen for Week 1, with center Mike Pouncey (questionable) and tackle Bryan Bulaga (doubtful) on the injury report versus Cincinnati. Receiver Mike Williams is a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. The Chargers are 3-point road favorites Sunday.

    Cincinnati Bengals: Wideout A.J. Green (hamstring) is expected to be fully cleared to play Sunday vs. the Chargers. There was no impact on the line, which remained Bengals +3.5 at The SuperBook. However, the Bengals defense will be without tackle Geno Atkins and safety Shawn Williams.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Standout receiver Mike Evans is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury for Tampa Bay's trip to New Orleans in Week 1. The Bucs have a new-look offense with QB Tom Brady under center. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog versus the Saints on Sunday, and while Evans is a dangerous deep threat, his worth to the spread is not as great as past seasons due to the additional weapons on the Buccaneers' depth chart and the diminished arm strength of Brady.

    Dallas Cowboys: Dallas on Monday put right tackle La’el Collins (hip) and linebacker Sean Lee (sports hernia) on injured reserve, meaning those two are out the next three weeks minimum. However, there was no impact on the line at The SuperBook, with the Cowboys still 3-point road favorites against the Rams.

    Cleveland Browns: Center JC Tretter, who had minor surgery for a knee issue in mid-August, returned to practice Monday. The Browns actually closed in a bit Monday, from +8 to +7.5 at The SuperBook for Sunday’s road game against the Ravens.

    San Francisco 49ers: The defending NFC champs could be thin at wide receiver, with Deebo Samuel out for Week 1 and rookie target Brandon Aiyuk listed as questionable with a tender hamstring. Another player to keep an eye on is running back Tevin Coleman, who sat out practice on Friday due to health concerns around the poor air quality in the Bay Area. The Niners are giving a touchdown to the visiting Cardinals on Sunday.

    Find the latest injury news for every game with our NFL Injury Report.

  20. #20
    WEEK 1 PROS VS JOES

    Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said the total in this game is pitting the sharps against the squares, though surprisingly it's not in the fashion you'd think. "Sharps are on the Over, and the public is on the Under." The total opened 48.5 and is down to 46.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: "The Bucs and Saints is definitely one," Osterman said of sharp vs. public play at The SuperBook. "The line is holding steady at Saints -3.5, even though we are getting a ton of parlay money on the Bucs," Osterman said, noting sharp play on New Orleans.

    Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: "The Vikings recently moved to -3 (even) from -2.5, even though we are taking some good public money on the Packers," Osterman said, pointing to sharp money on Minnesota.

  21. #21
    NFL WEEK 1 PROP BETTING CARD

    Lamar Jackson Over 220.5 passing yards (-120)
    Joe Burrow Over 15.5 yards rushing (-120)
    Buffalo Bills Over 2.5 touchdowns (-121)
    Dallas Goedert Over 33.5 receiving yards (-120) and Over 3.5 receptions (-113)
    --
    Baker Mayfield Over 245.5 passing yards (-115)
    T.J. Hockenson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
    Indianapolis to score every quarter — YES (+162)
    Dwayne Haskins Over 11.5 rushing yards (-135)
    --
    Marlon Mack Over 54.5 rushing yards (-122)
    Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards (-119)
    Tyler Lockett Over 67.5 receiving yards (-120)
    --
    Team to score the longest touchdown - Kansas City (-160)
    Le’Veon Bell Under 55.5 rushing yards (-116)
    Todd Gurley Under 83.5 total yards (-115)
    Ryan Tannehill Over 230.5 passing yards (-115)

  22. #22
    THE BEST NFL BETS AGAINST THE SPREAD IN HOME OPENERS

    No preseason and muzzled media coverage at training camp makes NFL Week 1 betting a bit like flying on a trapeze without a net.

    And then there’s the issue of having no fans or limited attendance. Sports betting lore tells us home field is worth a field goal to the point spread but does that hold up in 2020?

    To make sense of these confusing times, we go to the past to see which teams could provide a little extra NFL betting value when betting their early home stands.

    These are the best NFL bets in home openers since 2006.

    ATLANTA FALCONS: 12-2 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
    The Falcons moved into the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2017 and carried with them an impressive record against the spread in home openers, going 3-0 ATS in those contests the past three seasons. Before then, Atlanta was 9-2 ATS in its first game in front of the Georgia Dome faithful going back to 2006.

    The Falcons have scored an average of 28.3 points (the irony is not lost on us) in those games while giving up just 21.2 points against, for a comfy winning margin of a touchdown. Atlanta hosts Seattle in Week 1 as a 1-point home underdog and – after some flip-flopping – will not have fans in attendance.

    GREEN BAY PACKERS: 10-3-1 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
    Not a big surprise here. Lambeau is one of those home fields that could be worth more than the customary field goal to the spread. Green Bay did fail to cover in its home opener with Chicago two years ago – a wild comeback from 20-0 down to the Bears – but has been all that and a block of cheese in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in home debuts since 2015.

    Over the past 14 seasons, the Packers own an average 25-20 edge in home openers but will have to wait until Week 2 to improve on that metric. Green Bay is in Minnesota in Week 1 but hosts Detroit as a 7-point favorite at an empty Lambeau Field on September 20.

    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 10-4 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
    Another no-brainer and a home field absolutely worth more than three points to the point spread. CenturyLink Field is one of the most disruptive venues in the NFL, with deafening crowd noise and soggy Seattle weather plaguing visiting teams. However, the infamous 12th Man is locked out for at least the first three games of 2020.

    As mentioned above, the Seahawks are in Atlanta for Week 1 but host new-look New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, giving 3.5 points to the Patriots. Now, before you blindly throw you shekels down on Seattle, know that the Seahawks are just 1-3 ATS in home openers the past four seasons, including squeaking out a 21-20 win over Cincinnati as 9.5-point chalk in 2019’s home opener.

    BALTIMORE RAVENS: 9-5 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
    Fans or no fans, you aren’t getting any discounts on the Ravens this season. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite hosting Cleveland in Week 1, looking to cover for the fourth time in the past five home openers. The Ravens didn’t come through for the Maryland fanbase last season, knocking off Arizona 23-17 as 13-point home chalk in Week 2. That spread was massively inflated on the heels of the Ravens’ 59-10 drubbing at Miami the game before.

    What’s most impressive about Baltimore’s ATS prowess in home openers is the fact that the team has faced an average spread of -6.7 in those 14 games and still managed to crank out a 64-percent ATS winning clip. The Ravens own an average final score of 26-13 over those home debuts, which looks promising considering the large Week 1 spread versus the Browns.

    DENVER BRONCOS: 7-4-3 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
    Pulling the trigger on the Broncos in home openers is one of my annual NFL wagers and one of the best betting trends with teeth. The above record doesn’t tell the full story and unfortunately, those pushes have taken some of the “wow” out of this trend, which is hitting at 64 percent since 2006.

    However, if we go back even further, Denver’s dominance in home openers is straight-up bonkers. Since 2000, the Broncos are 18-2 SU and 12-4-4 ATS (75%) in those Mile High debuts. One of the likely reasons for this success is the high-altitude impact on visiting teams that aren’t in full game shape during the opening weeks of the schedule. The Broncos are 1.5-point home favorites against Tennessee for a fanless Monday Night Football meeting in Week 1.

  23. #23

    Thumbs up

    Really appreciate the posts, one of the best threads here just based on all the different trends and results you share!!!

  24. #24
    SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


    CLE at BAL 01:00 PM
    BAL -7.0
    U 47.0

    +500 +500

    CHI at DET 01:00 PM
    DET -2.5
    U 42.5

    +500 +500

    IND at JAC 01:00 PM
    IND -7.0
    U 44.0

    +500 +500

    GB at MIN 01:00 PM
    GB +1.5
    O 45.0

    +500 +500

    SEA at ATL 01:00 PM
    SEA +1.0
    U 49.5

    +500 +500

    LV at CAR 01:00 PM
    LV -3.0
    U 48.0

    +500 +500

    NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM
    NYJ +6.5
    U 39.5

    +500 +500

    PHI at WAS 01:00 PM
    WAS +5.5
    U 41.5

    +500 +500

    MIA at NE 01:00 PM
    MIA +7.5
    U 41.5

    +500 +500

  25. #25
    LATE AFTERNOON GAMES:


    LAC at CIN 04:05 PM
    CIN +3.0
    O 41.5

    +500 +500

    ARI at SF 04:25 PM
    ARI +7.0
    U 48.0

    +500 +500

    TB at NO 04:25 PM
    NO -3.5
    U 47.5

    +500 +500

  26. #26
    SUNDAY NIGHT LATE GAME:

    DAL at LAR 08:20 PM
    DAL -2.0
    O 52.0

    +500 +500

  27. #27
    COMPLETED PICKS

    Past Completed Picks

    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


    09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
    09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

    Totals......13-14-1.........48.14%.....-11.00

  28. #28
    Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

    Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
    344— Buffalo +6.5- W
    337— LA Rams +3- W
    304— Atlanta +2.5- L
    303— Tennessee -2.5
    280— Arizona +6.5- W
    243— Pittsburgh -6

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    **********

    Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

    Seahawks 38, Atlanta 25:
    — Four trips to red zone, four TD’s for Seattle.
    — Last three years, Seahawks are 14-9-2 ATS on the road.
    — Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten games vs Atlanta.

    — Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in a losing cause.
    — Atlanta gained 506 yards but was -2 (0-2) in turnovers.
    — Last 2+ years, Falcons are 6-10-2 vs spread at home.

    Buffalo 27, Jets 17
    — Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position, very big.
    — Jets are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
    — Last four years, Gang Green is 4-7-2 ATS in AFC East road games.

    — Buffalo threw the ball 26 times in first half; surprising.
    — Bills won seven of last ten home openers (9-5 ATS in last 14)
    — Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers as a home favorite.

    Bears 27, Detroit 23
    — Detroit led 23-6 after three quarters.
    — Last four drives for Chicago: 22 plays, 155 yards, 21 points.
    — Chicago won last five series games, winning last three visits to the Motor City.

    — Guy on Lions dropped a pretty easy pass in end zone with 0:06 left.
    — Last two years, Detroit is 7-10 ATS at home.
    — Lions are 9-23-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.

    Packers 43, Minnesota 34
    — Packers scored five TD’s on nine possessions.
    — Green Bay had a 14-yard advantage in field position.
    — Over is 12-3 in Green Bay’s last 15 road openers

    — Pack ran 76 plays for 522 yards; Vikings ran 49 plays.
    — Vikings had 8 plays of 20+ yards; 7 of them came on 1st down.
    — Under Zimmer, Minnesota is now 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.

    New England 21, Dolphins 11
    — Fitzpatrick threw 3 INT’s, including one in end zone with 1:28 when a TD would’ve at least covered the spread.
    — Since 2014, Miami is 16-26 ATS as road underdogs
    — Miami lost 11 of its last 12 visits to Foxboro.

    — Newton threw for 155 yards, ran 15 times for 75 yards.
    — Since 2015, New England is 25-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
    — NE won 17 of its last 19 home openers (10-7-2 ATS)

    Washington 27, Eagles 17
    — Eagles led 17-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
    — Philly’s last 11 drives: 42 plays, 100 yards, 0 points, 3 turnovers.
    — Washington had a 15-yard edge in field position.

    — Washington’s points were all scored on drives that started in Philly territory.
    — Ron Rivera is Washington’s coach; he had a chemo treatment during the week, took an IV at halftime. Tough freakin’ guy.
    — As a head coach, Rivera is 13-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.

    Raiders 34, Charlotte 30
    — Jacobs carried ball 25 times for 93 yards, three TD’s
    — Three of four Las Vegas TD drives were 75+ yards.
    — Raiders covered five of their last six road openers.

    — McCaffrey ran for 96 yards, but caught only three passes.
    — Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays.
    — Since 2016, Panthers are 14-18-1 ATS at home.

    Jacksonville 27, Colts 20
    — Indy outgained Jags 445-241, but was -2 in turnovers.
    — Colts lost their last five trips to Jacksonville.
    — Indy lost nine of its last 11 road openers, six of last seven season openers.

    — Minshew completed 19-20 passes for 173 yards, three TD’s.
    — Jacksonville covered 10 of last 15 AFC South home games.
    — Jaguars last five home openers went over the total.

    Baltimore 38, Browns 6
    — Cleveland scored only one TD and missed the PAT after.
    — Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Since 2003, Browns, are 6-10-2 ATS in road openers.

    — Ravens had a 23-yard advantage in starting field position.
    — Baltimore won its last five Week 1 games, by combined score of 177-26.
    — Ravens won 14 of last 16 home openers (11-5 ATS).

    Chargers 16, Cincinnati 13
    — Bengals’ game-winning TD with 0:06 left was nullified by offensive pass interference call.
    — Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road openers.

    — Bengals averaged 4.4 yards/pass attempt; their only TD drive was 44 yards.
    — Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
    — Cincy is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.

    New Orleans 34, Buccaneers 23
    — Buccaneers turned ball over three times; Brady threw a pick-6.
    — Arians is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
    — Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.

    — Saints scored the only defensive TD of the week so far.
    — Since 2014, New Orleans is 16-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Saints had a 24-yard edge in starting field position.

    Cardinals 24, San Francisco 20
    — WR Hopkins caught 14 passes for 151 yards; why did Houston trade HIM?
    — Cardinals are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
    — Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on third down.
    — Redbirds won five of their last six visits here.

    — 49ers are 7-16-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
    — Niners covered twice in last ten NFC West home games.
    — Six of 49ers’ last seven home openers stayed under the total
    — Five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.

    Rams 20, Cowboys 17
    — Dallas converted only 3-12 third down plays.
    — Prescott averaged only 5.8 yards/pass attempt.
    — Cowboys had only one play of 20+ yards.

    — Rams held Dallas to a field goal in second half.
    — Under McVay, Rams are 15-8 SU at home.
    — Rams won/covered their last six home openers.

  29. #29
    NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
    Patrick Everson

    Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.

    NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium – albeit with no fans – against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.

    The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

    NFL Week 2 odds

    These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13.



    Bengals at Browns

    Opening line
    Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    "We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.


    Rams at Eagles

    Opening line
    Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
    "Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."


    Panthers at Buccaneers odds

    Opening line
    Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Broncos at Steelers

    Opening line
    Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Falcons at Cowboys

    Opening line
    Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.


    49ers at Jets

    Opening line
    Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Bills at Dolphins

    Opening line
    Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Vikings at Colts

    Opening line
    Colts -3, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Lions at Packers

    Opening line
    Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Giants at Bears

    Opening line
    Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Jaguars at Titans

    Opening line
    Titans -10, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Washington at Cardinals

    Opening line
    Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


    Ravens at Texans

    Opening line
    Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    "We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."


    Chiefs at Chargers

    Opening line
    Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.


    Patriots at Seahawks

    Opening line
    Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    "We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."


    Saints at Raiders

    Opening line
    +4.5, Over/Under TBA

    Why the line moved
    "We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could’ve been for this city. What an event that would’ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."

  30. #30
    NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
    Jason Logan

    Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.

    I’m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.

    The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.

    If you’re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.

    Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now

    The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

    The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys’ loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.

    Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air — a stat that should make Dallas’ shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.


    Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later

    This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.

    The Bills’ 2020 debut wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.

    The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren’t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you’re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.


    New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now

    The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.

    Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.

    This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it’s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.


    Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later

    This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.

    The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.

    The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.

    Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.

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