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  1. #1
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    BASON 2020-2021 Season

    Hard to believe how fast this season has gotten started. Took a much needed break after Euro and CL. Purposely wanted to skip the Nation League games even though I usually do well with them, but there was too much uncertainty this time around plus I needed the break.

    I will start slowly and I do not play heavy early. Leagues are not my bread and butter anyway, so even more than usual, I am focusing on not losing much of the bankroll on early league play. Over the years, I have learned what I am good at, and with the exception of most years in Germany, the rest of the leagues are not my real money makers. I made some good coin on the CL and already put money away for the Euro Championships this summer.

    One game I have already bet and I see that Kid is already on it is:

    Chelsea -150

    You can not ignore what they have done over the last three months. They have spent serious money and bought world class players at key positions. Now we get to see if Frank Lampard can coach. If he gets this team playing together they are a legitimate contender. In fact, they are probably the only team I would bet to win it all given the odds I saw. For the record, I do not make any season bets at all in any sports. For me, it is just lost money for many months. I have no issue with it as you can make real money but it is no longer for me given all the other better options available now. I think Chelsea has to come out and make a statement in this game against a team that is significantly inferior to them. I have also bet it -1 and I am using them in some of my football parlays also.

    Another one that stood out to me right away is:

    Norwich +116

    Simple analysis that served us well last year: Huddersfield Sucks. Great play against team and we are getting a great price. I think Norwich is one of the favorites to come right back up.

    May have one or two more for the weekend once I get through everything.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  2. #2
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    I had to open a new account (long story but after the CL one account put all new limits on soccer after I cashed out) so I now have access to many more soccer options which part of me hates, but it certainly allows me to search for value better.

    Adding:

    Arsenal/Fulham BTTS -124 - I think Fulham gets one at home so I like this number better than the higher juice on the Ov 2.5 and certainly better than Arsenal not to keep a clean sheet at -176 which really makes no sense to me.

    I will probably only add if this wins.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  3. #3
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    going to be a long year for Fulham

  4. #4
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    Absolutely, they are definitely on the list to go back down. They were simply horrible on the offensive end. That game could have easily been 5 or 6 to nil. That is why I do not bet much on these initial games. Should have posted the Liverpool Over but did not get to it. Norwich pulled it out though and I feel even better about Chelsea on Monday as the line inches up.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  5. #5
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Hard to believe how fast this season has gotten started. Took a much needed break after Euro and CL. Purposely wanted to skip the Nation League games even though I usually do well with them, but there was too much uncertainty this time around plus I needed the break.

    I will start slowly and I do not play heavy early. Leagues are not my bread and butter anyway, so even more than usual, I am focusing on not losing much of the bankroll on early league play. Over the years, I have learned what I am good at, and with the exception of most years in Germany, the rest of the leagues are not my real money makers. I made some good coin on the CL and already put money away for the Euro Championships this summer.

    One game I have already bet and I see that Kid is already on it is:

    Chelsea -150

    You can not ignore what they have done over the last three months. They have spent serious money and bought world class players at key positions. Now we get to see if Frank Lampard can coach. If he gets this team playing together they are a legitimate contender. In fact, they are probably the only team I would bet to win it all given the odds I saw. For the record, I do not make any season bets at all in any sports. For me, it is just lost money for many months. I have no issue with it as you can make real money but it is no longer for me given all the other better options available now. I think Chelsea has to come out and make a statement in this game against a team that is significantly inferior to them. I have also bet it -1 and I am using them in some of my football parlays also.

    Another one that stood out to me right away is:

    Norwich +116

    Simple analysis that served us well last year: Huddersfield Sucks. Great play against team and we are getting a great price. I think Norwich is one of the favorites to come right back up.

    May have one or two more for the weekend once I get through everything.

    Nice opening week Bason! Chelsea wins 3-1 despite giving up more shots and possession, and getting outplayed through swaths of that game. When everyone is healthy this team is going to be scary good, and should score plenty of goals. But they still looked real vulnerable in the back. Nonetheless, very happy with that outcome. The Liverpool Chelsea game should be interesting next week. I played that over a few days ago, and line is already steaming.

    Looking forward to some Bundesliga insights from you this weekend.

  6. #6
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    Thanks Crook. Certainly was an ugly 3-1 win. I expect Chelsea to get better week by week. They need Pulisic in that line up. He and Werner will play well together. Yeah, that Over in the Liverpool game looks like a winner.

    I will post some thoughts later in the week on German games. Going to try to post a second division and third division game each week also and see how that goes. I have not been posting them the last couple years, but will see how it goes. This first week is always tough.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  7. #7
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    First German Play

    Wehen Wiesbaden Ov 2.5 -140

    This is my third division play of the weekend. Putting it in now because I definitely think it will go to 3. Wehen was an over monster last year in the second division and they play the up and coming team Verl who just moved up and has had an influx of money. Their two most recent games were 2-2. Will be surprised if we do not see 3 goals here and I am fairly certain the line will move to 3.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  8. #8
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    Friday Bundesliga

    Bayern -2 -175

    Standard line is -2.5, but I prefer to play it at -2. I do not think it will matter but I do not mind laying the juice for some protection just in case Bayern struggles. Schalke was terrible last year especially at the end of the season and looks to be no better this year. They lost their starting striker, goalie and McKennie. This game is all about whether Bayern comes to play. If they do I see them winning 4-5 to nil. They are off a dominant CL performance and should be in game shape and should have their full starting line up, which now includes Sane. They will be a serious force up front. Bayern won 5-0 at home and 3-0 at Schalke last year, and I see no reason for anything different this year. Lots of potential plays here but sticking with what I think is best.

    I am not playing any of the EFL Cup or early CL or Euro qualifiers. Nothing there really worth playing given all the uncertainty.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  9. #9
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    Bundesliga 2

    Hamburg Ov 2.5 -130

    2nd Division has been very hard to cap in Germany the last couple years. One thing I know is that Hamburg is a very difficult team to beat at home and they tend to be higher scoring games. Dusseldorf was relegated from the Bundesliga because their defense was terrible. Hamburg was very close to moving up and this is a critical year for them to move back up because they likely will have to sell players if they do not. Think we see a 2-1 type game.

    I ended up betting more than I planned to on Bayern tomorrow, but they should destroy Schalke. Anything can happen, but this game has mismatch written all over it.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  10. #10
    Registered User PittsburghKid's Avatar
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    We’ve both been against var from beginning and nothing has swayed me to the other side as of yet


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  11. #11
    Great work. Thx for posting. Fun game


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  12. #12
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    For the hell of it BTTS parlay for tomorrow:

    Germany/Czech
    Turkey/Crotia
    Belgium/Swiss
    Spain/Netherlands

    +819
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  13. #13
    Omg, CZE so close to equalizing which would have been huge!


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  14. #14
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    Yeah, the German goalie screwed me. Should have had that one.

    I bought all the Euro qualifying games up as much as it made sense and did a 4-team Under parlay. All of these games are going to be very tight. The Georgia vs Macedonia game is the biggest in both countries maybe ever.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  15. #15
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Yeah, the German goalie screwed me. Should have had that one.

    I bought all the Euro qualifying games up as much as it made sense and did a 4-team Under parlay. All of these games are going to be very tight. The Georgia vs Macedonia game is the biggest in both countries maybe ever.
    Don't know your lines, but I will assume you nailed this! Bang on reads, well done.

  16. #16
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    Thanks Crook, would have been very nice without the two late Hungary goals, but still made some good money.

    I played this one so far for tomorrow:

    Germany TT Ov 2.5 -105

    See no reason Germany does not put up 3 in this game as the Spain and France put up 4 and 7, respectively, on them.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  17. #17
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    Great call on Germany I tagged along

  18. #18
    Wow Dortmund line down to -102 at my book


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  19. #19
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    Yup, really was not expecting that. Draw is getting the money.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  20. #20
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    Haaland hurt in warm ups. That drove the line down. I was too busy singing up to CBS all access to notice!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  21. #21
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    That penalty in the Dortmund game is the one thing that I hate about this sport. There is no way anyone should be giving a penalty when it is not a scoring chance. It has driven me crazy for a long time and it is the worst part of the sport in my opinion. Yes, worse than VAR. Penalties should only be awarded for real scoring chances, not when the player get fouled at the corner of the box going away from the goal. It drives me nuts and I would like to have a talk with whoever created the box. Not all fouls in the box should be penalties. Sorry for the rant, but had to let it out. Probably going to cost me a lot of money because everything else I liked is already done.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  22. #22
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    Only making one play today, but I am betting it rather big:

    Bayern TT Ov 2 -171

    They rested most key players in the CL over the weekend to prepare for this game. On the other hand, Leipzig had to go on the road and win a shootout, so Bayern is in a much better spot for this game. This appears to be the league game they likely win and never look back. They tend to make statements in these games so I expect a great effort from them today and really can not see anyway they do not at least score 2, but I expect 3 or more. Went back and forth how to play this game and I think this is the best bet, but I am not opposed to playing Bayern ML or Bayern -1.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  23. #23

    BASON 2020-2021 Season

    I use heritage as well (ever since 5 dimes stopped allowing US peeps). The live betting options are top notch as well. They have a great cash back program and give 8th deposit for free (if u lose all the money in your account which I did on NFL. Lol)


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