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  1. #1
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    BASON 2020-2021 Season

    Hard to believe how fast this season has gotten started. Took a much needed break after Euro and CL. Purposely wanted to skip the Nation League games even though I usually do well with them, but there was too much uncertainty this time around plus I needed the break.

    I will start slowly and I do not play heavy early. Leagues are not my bread and butter anyway, so even more than usual, I am focusing on not losing much of the bankroll on early league play. Over the years, I have learned what I am good at, and with the exception of most years in Germany, the rest of the leagues are not my real money makers. I made some good coin on the CL and already put money away for the Euro Championships this summer.

    One game I have already bet and I see that Kid is already on it is:

    Chelsea -150

    You can not ignore what they have done over the last three months. They have spent serious money and bought world class players at key positions. Now we get to see if Frank Lampard can coach. If he gets this team playing together they are a legitimate contender. In fact, they are probably the only team I would bet to win it all given the odds I saw. For the record, I do not make any season bets at all in any sports. For me, it is just lost money for many months. I have no issue with it as you can make real money but it is no longer for me given all the other better options available now. I think Chelsea has to come out and make a statement in this game against a team that is significantly inferior to them. I have also bet it -1 and I am using them in some of my football parlays also.

    Another one that stood out to me right away is:

    Norwich +116

    Simple analysis that served us well last year: Huddersfield Sucks. Great play against team and we are getting a great price. I think Norwich is one of the favorites to come right back up.

    May have one or two more for the weekend once I get through everything.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  2. #2
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    I had to open a new account (long story but after the CL one account put all new limits on soccer after I cashed out) so I now have access to many more soccer options which part of me hates, but it certainly allows me to search for value better.

    Adding:

    Arsenal/Fulham BTTS -124 - I think Fulham gets one at home so I like this number better than the higher juice on the Ov 2.5 and certainly better than Arsenal not to keep a clean sheet at -176 which really makes no sense to me.

    I will probably only add if this wins.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  3. #3
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    going to be a long year for Fulham

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    Absolutely, they are definitely on the list to go back down. They were simply horrible on the offensive end. That game could have easily been 5 or 6 to nil. That is why I do not bet much on these initial games. Should have posted the Liverpool Over but did not get to it. Norwich pulled it out though and I feel even better about Chelsea on Monday as the line inches up.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  5. #5
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Hard to believe how fast this season has gotten started. Took a much needed break after Euro and CL. Purposely wanted to skip the Nation League games even though I usually do well with them, but there was too much uncertainty this time around plus I needed the break.

    I will start slowly and I do not play heavy early. Leagues are not my bread and butter anyway, so even more than usual, I am focusing on not losing much of the bankroll on early league play. Over the years, I have learned what I am good at, and with the exception of most years in Germany, the rest of the leagues are not my real money makers. I made some good coin on the CL and already put money away for the Euro Championships this summer.

    One game I have already bet and I see that Kid is already on it is:

    Chelsea -150

    You can not ignore what they have done over the last three months. They have spent serious money and bought world class players at key positions. Now we get to see if Frank Lampard can coach. If he gets this team playing together they are a legitimate contender. In fact, they are probably the only team I would bet to win it all given the odds I saw. For the record, I do not make any season bets at all in any sports. For me, it is just lost money for many months. I have no issue with it as you can make real money but it is no longer for me given all the other better options available now. I think Chelsea has to come out and make a statement in this game against a team that is significantly inferior to them. I have also bet it -1 and I am using them in some of my football parlays also.

    Another one that stood out to me right away is:

    Norwich +116

    Simple analysis that served us well last year: Huddersfield Sucks. Great play against team and we are getting a great price. I think Norwich is one of the favorites to come right back up.

    May have one or two more for the weekend once I get through everything.

    Nice opening week Bason! Chelsea wins 3-1 despite giving up more shots and possession, and getting outplayed through swaths of that game. When everyone is healthy this team is going to be scary good, and should score plenty of goals. But they still looked real vulnerable in the back. Nonetheless, very happy with that outcome. The Liverpool Chelsea game should be interesting next week. I played that over a few days ago, and line is already steaming.

    Looking forward to some Bundesliga insights from you this weekend.

  6. #6
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    Thanks Crook. Certainly was an ugly 3-1 win. I expect Chelsea to get better week by week. They need Pulisic in that line up. He and Werner will play well together. Yeah, that Over in the Liverpool game looks like a winner.

    I will post some thoughts later in the week on German games. Going to try to post a second division and third division game each week also and see how that goes. I have not been posting them the last couple years, but will see how it goes. This first week is always tough.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

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    First German Play

    Wehen Wiesbaden Ov 2.5 -140

    This is my third division play of the weekend. Putting it in now because I definitely think it will go to 3. Wehen was an over monster last year in the second division and they play the up and coming team Verl who just moved up and has had an influx of money. Their two most recent games were 2-2. Will be surprised if we do not see 3 goals here and I am fairly certain the line will move to 3.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  8. #8
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    Friday Bundesliga

    Bayern -2 -175

    Standard line is -2.5, but I prefer to play it at -2. I do not think it will matter but I do not mind laying the juice for some protection just in case Bayern struggles. Schalke was terrible last year especially at the end of the season and looks to be no better this year. They lost their starting striker, goalie and McKennie. This game is all about whether Bayern comes to play. If they do I see them winning 4-5 to nil. They are off a dominant CL performance and should be in game shape and should have their full starting line up, which now includes Sane. They will be a serious force up front. Bayern won 5-0 at home and 3-0 at Schalke last year, and I see no reason for anything different this year. Lots of potential plays here but sticking with what I think is best.

    I am not playing any of the EFL Cup or early CL or Euro qualifiers. Nothing there really worth playing given all the uncertainty.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  9. #9
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    Bundesliga 2

    Hamburg Ov 2.5 -130

    2nd Division has been very hard to cap in Germany the last couple years. One thing I know is that Hamburg is a very difficult team to beat at home and they tend to be higher scoring games. Dusseldorf was relegated from the Bundesliga because their defense was terrible. Hamburg was very close to moving up and this is a critical year for them to move back up because they likely will have to sell players if they do not. Think we see a 2-1 type game.

    I ended up betting more than I planned to on Bayern tomorrow, but they should destroy Schalke. Anything can happen, but this game has mismatch written all over it.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  10. #10
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    not getting too much cooperation in this hamburger match

  11. #11
    Bayern

    Not getting much help from my book, usually it allows me to move the lines, but for this game, all it will give me is Bayern -2.5/-3 -116. They SHOULD kill them, but that is a pretty damn big line. And, maybe Bayern has a bit of a hangover from the CL and Schalke should know they are in “do not get embarrassed” mode. So, I was thinking of these instead:
    1st Half Bayern -1, -1.5 +100
    Half/Full Time Bayern -256
    Bayern/U4.5 -103
    Bayern/U3.5 +198
    Maybe even Bayern/U2.5 at big odds - on the hope that Schalke puts up a fight and Bayern gets a little bored.
    Not playing all of them, but what do you like/dislike?

  12. #12
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    goal in the 90' gets the cash

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    Sorry Flap, I was not around today.

    Great day!! Bayern was as easy as expected because Schalke was as bad as I thought. Got a little luck in the Hamburg game but I will take it.

    I took some of the Bayern money and put it on:

    Dortmund -155

    This should be a good game to watch. I like Gladbach as a team this year, but Dortmund has a tendency to start off strong. They are a beast up front and I expect Haaland to have a big year as well as Sancho. They beat Gladbach three times by one goal last year and I expect them to get the home win tomorrow.

    Have to go against Huddersfield again, but I am not laying -170 in a Championship game this early in the season so I will do a little parlay:

    Brentford/Everton/Arsenal

    Not much to love in England tomorrow, but I do think all the home teams can win so I put Brentford with the two I like the most.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  14. #14
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    Damn Wehen... they shit the bed....
    Sportbooks: someone who tries to rip you off. Me: someone who tries to *** sportbooks off...

  15. #15
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    Yup, that was certainly a bad call. Verl was horrible and only 3 shots on goal the whole game. Never had a chance.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  16. #16
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    got it back with koln over before the half

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    I will agree with Kid and go on a mini rant about how there US companies are buying soccer rights and just throwing everything on the internet. It is already pissing me off and I am sure it will only get worse. First CBS with the CL, then NBC with Peacock and now ESPN buying German rights and putting everything on Espn +. Just a blatant attempt to get everyone streaming. There is no reason why these companies can not use one of the multiple cable channels they have to show the games. It is a slap in the face to real fans in my opinion. So ESPN news can not show the Dortmund game instead of repeats? Its a joke.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    I will agree with Kid and go on a mini rant about how there US companies are buying soccer rights and just throwing everything on the internet. It is already pissing me off and I am sure it will only get worse. First CBS with the CL, then NBC with Peacock and now ESPN buying German rights and putting everything on Espn +. Just a blatant attempt to get everyone streaming. There is no reason why these companies can not use one of the multiple cable channels they have to show the games. It is a slap in the face to real fans in my opinion. So ESPN news can not show the Dortmund game instead of repeats? Its a joke.
    Agree completely. As someone who loves Serie A - and Juventus - I was thrilled when ESPN picked up Serie A last year. Finally a real network. Then, so pissed they refused to put one single Juventus game on cable. The only time they put a game on their cable channels and not streaming is when they have a matchup no one in the US would possibly want to stream. Juve vs Inter? Not a chance. Calgliari vs Hellas? Sure. Also, as someone who likes to watch the games in a bar, it extra sucks. I fear CBS will be using the CL to force people to their streaming service.

  19. #19
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    CBS already did that for the last CL games. They are all forcing people to stream. It is disgraceful as they are using COVID to get fans to stream. NBC has 13 cable channels showing shit on the weekends and they can not put the games on tv? They can all go to hell as far as I am concerned.

    Easy win by Dortmund!!

    Need Arsenal to complete the parlay for a very good day.

    For tomorrow I am on:

    Liverpool/Chelsea Ov 3 -108 - May be the obvious play, but I still like it. I expect Chelsea to look much better than last week and Liverpool will be Liverpool. Will be surprised if there are not at least 3 in this game.

    I will use the above play and parlay it with Leverkusen +146. Getting a lot of value in this line because Wolfsburg is a terrible home team and Leverkusen have beaten them there the last 4 games.
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  20. #20
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    chelsea red card just before half...still scoreless

  21. #21
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    Yeah, writing this one off. Did not like the line move overnight and the game sucks. Should have know better.

    One in for tomorrow:

    Man City/Wolves BTTS -124 - I like this line as I think Wolves will get one. They tend to play very well against the better teams.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  22. #22
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    BTTS line came down to -105 and I hit it again. I also played Wolves Ov 1 +194.

    I think Man City is getting way too much credit in this line. No way Wolves should be +631 at home. I just made a Wolves +1.5 -150 bet. People love to bet City but do people remember that Wolves beat then twice last year. I could certainly be wrong and none of these bets are very large, but I think Wolverhampton gives City all they could handle today.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  23. #23
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    BTTS line came down to -105 and I hit it again. I also played Wolves Ov 1 +194.

    I think Man City is getting way too much credit in this line. No way Wolves should be +631 at home. I just made a Wolves +1.5 -150 bet. People love to bet City but do people remember that Wolves beat then twice last year. I could certainly be wrong and none of these bets are very large, but I think Wolverhampton gives City all they could handle today.
    Definitely a weird line move here. I thought I was getting ahead of the game when I took the over a few days ago, and the line went the complete opposite. A Man City total this low is almost an auto play for me, good luck, looking for a few goals in this one.

  24. #24
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    That final goal was a kick in the balls but hit the primary bet so not that upset.

    Not so sure what caused this line move Crook, but there was a definite move towards Wolves not scoring which is why we saw the overall total come down along with BTTS.

    I pay serious attention to overnight line movements but I tend to pay less attention when it is a move up on one of the big teams since they all get tons of money. My guess is that there was also a lot of City to nil bets. The BTTS bets usually do not move much so a 20 move is rather large. Glad I ignored this one and went with my gut.

    Good start!!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  25. #25
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    That final goal was a kick in the balls but hit the primary bet so not that upset.

    Not so sure what caused this line move Crook, but there was a definite move towards Wolves not scoring which is why we saw the overall total come down along with BTTS.

    I pay serious attention to overnight line movements but I tend to pay less attention when it is a move up on one of the big teams since they all get tons of money. My guess is that there was also a lot of City to nil bets. The BTTS bets usually do not move much so a 20 move is rather large. Glad I ignored this one and went with my gut.

    Good start!!
    The ol' 20 cent swing overnight to mess with your head, god I love footy lol I really should just ignore, and not look again once the bet is placed, but I can never help myself.

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    One play for today

    Prague -135 - They have started strong in the League and I just think they are the better team. Was expecting this line to be higher.

    I do not bother with the English Cup games, plus Kid does well there so no need to.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  27. #27
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    do you think Sevilla can get one today B?? I was thinking btts with over 2.5 @-150

  28. #28
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    I just did a write up on this game but have no idea what happened to it. Getting old sucks!!

    I played:

    Bayern -1 -181

    They are the better team and the Sevilla layoff will play against them.

    I do think Seville can score so I am not against BTTS and Ov 2.5, tt. I like the over and many other bets but I am sticking the one play for a larger amount. Do not mind laying the extra juice given how I feel about the game. Have to stick with Bayern until they slow down. Looking forward to seeing Davies and Sane on the filed together. Should be a fun game to watch.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    I just did a write up on this game but have no idea what happened to it. Getting old sucks!!

    I played:

    Bayern -1 -181

    They are the better team and the Sevilla layoff will play against them.

    I do think Seville can score so I am not against BTTS and Ov 2.5, tt. I like the over and many other bets but I am sticking the one play for a larger amount. Do not mind laying the extra juice given how I feel about the game. Have to stick with Bayern until they slow down. Looking forward to seeing Davies and Sane on the filed together. Should be a fun game to watch.
    Hate to see that. Betting the Europa Cup winner vs the CL winner was always one of my “go to’s” since it feels like a bit of a friendly, but the underdog with more to prove and the fav just trying not to get any injuries to start the season. But, so be it. Hard to bet against Bayern at this point.

  30. #30
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    You have some different circumstances this year with the timing of everything. Bayern had the late championship run, then only a small break, then right into the season. Sevilla has not played a real match in over a month, plus they never do well in this game. Anything can happen, but I think it is too early in the season for Bayern to lay an egg in this game. I just think they have too much firepower. I did not post it, but I have some smaller over plays because the only way I see Bayern not covering is if Sevilla scores 2 or 3.

    Only think that could change my mind is if Bayern completely changes their lineup, but that is not Flick's style.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

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