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  1. #61
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    I put these two parlays in today:

    Atalanta Ov3/Atletico/Shakhtar Ov 2.5/Liverpool -2/Dortmund -1

    Atletico/Liverpool -2/Dortmund -1 - This is my favorite play. Atletico needs to bounce back after getting killed by Bayern and Salzburg did not look that great in their first game and is not a good road team. If Liverpool comes to play they should win 4 or 5 to nil. Dortmund also needs a bounce back game after their poor road showing and Zenit is struggling with the schedule and is also not great on the road. I will probably be on all three of these individually also. I see all these lines continuing to move up.
    I always find the overnight UCL line moves quite intriguing. You don't see line swings like this anywhere. Your telling me someone out there is pounding the shit out of Midtylland on the Asian line ?? Liverpool -2 dropped 50 cents over night. I know the Trio is out, but it probably shouldn't matter, I think I will buy more.

  2. #62
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    I love watching overnight moves. Most are very accurate, but this is one I am not buying. English teams tend to significantly more betting action, so they can be even more volatile overnight. All of Liverpool's reserves could play and they still should win by at least 2. I am not loading up, but I did add some at -1.5.

    Even more surprised that the Atletico line came down. I just hit them again at -146.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  3. #63
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    I love watching overnight moves. Most are very accurate, but this is one I am not buying. English teams tend to significantly more betting action, so they can be even more volatile overnight. All of Liverpool's reserves could play and they still should win by at least 2. I am not loading up, but I did add some at -1.5.

    Even more surprised that the Atletico line came down. I just hit them again at -146.
    We have seen some real steammmmmmmm how about Inter from -120 to -275 , Liverpool -900 to -450 (-2 -200 to -2 +110), Man City is creeping up to -350. Time will tell what this all means lol, for the most part I am on totals. Goood luck today, I am on a few of your picks.

  4. #64
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    I actually added a late Shakhtar bet. I love betting on them. I actually had a couple bucks on them last week. They are a tough team to play.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  5. #65
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    Plenty riding on Dortmund tomorrow but I am adding:

    Dortmund Ov 3 -155

    I am adding this more or less for a little protection, because if Dortmund does not win I definitely think this game goes over as Dortmund always scores at home.

    Nothing else really stands out to me as I do not like the card that much. I probably will end up playing Juve Pk+119 because it is hard for me not to take that value with them at home and Barca has not been that great so far this season. Will see where the money goes overnight.

    Was not easy watching the Atletico game today but they came through for me. I had a lot riding on that one. Give me Dortmund tomorrow and it is a great CL week!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  6. #66
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Plenty riding on Dortmund tomorrow but I am adding:

    Dortmund Ov 3 -155

    I am adding this more or less for a little protection, because if Dortmund does not win I definitely think this game goes over as Dortmund always scores at home.

    Nothing else really stands out to me as I do not like the card that much. I probably will end up playing Juve Pk+119 because it is hard for me not to take that value with them at home and Barca has not been that great so far this season. Will see where the money goes overnight.

    Was not easy watching the Atletico game today but they came through for me. I had a lot riding on that one. Give me Dortmund tomorrow and it is a great CL week!
    Wow that late penalty saved my ass in the Liverpool game! I cant believe Inter/Shak went scoreless, that was my play of the day. I am sure we will see some wild movement overnight. Nice to see you aligned with my previous thoughts on BVB. I may start my own thread I seem to always be hijacking yours lol Good Luck tmrw.

  7. #67
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    The Dortmund line has moved big time. I played it at -1 -175 and now it is -281!!

    Yeah, the Shakhtar game was surprising, but I keep playing them and they keep winning. Liverpool goal saved me also and gave me a win for my late bet. I had them -2 in a few parlays that all need Dortmund today.

    I do not mind the back and forth. I do not think there are that many paying attention to this anyway.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  8. #68
    What do you think about Rennes +618? A lot of people talked about them as dark horses to get out of that crappy group. Had a bad 0-0 draw to the Russians in the first round and followed that up with a L1 loss to Angers Iím sure inflated the line. But, that was their first league loss since Feb 16th and that CL game was their first in history. In that L1 game, they rested their entire front 3 as well as several other players - until they went down late and subbed a lot of them in. I assume they were rested to target this game. And, Sevilla are not exactly ripping it up themselves. Seems like a really high line. +1 +106 seems like a great bet. They havenít lost by more than a goal in over a year and a half in L1 for what thatís worth. No CL or even Europa data to go off of for them. But, certainly have performed well vs PSG the past couple years in the league and cups.

  9. #69
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    I think the line is a little skewed towards Sevilla, but I also see Rennes having a hard time scoring in this game. They have been having trouble scoring goals lately and Sevilla is a tough team to score against at home. Rennes cost me some real money last week so I am not jumping at the chance to bet them again. Would not be surprised to see a 1 or 2 to nil game, but just not enough there for me to bet it.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  10. #70
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    Might not be the smartest move but:

    Dortmund -1 -120 SH
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  11. #71
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    Not playing anything today. Dortmund game ended up being a huge winner after adding at halftime and hitting a few parlays so I see no need in wasting money on today's games.

    Should have some tired teams this weekend with more CL on deck, so will be taking a look at who could be vulnerable.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  12. #72
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    Thanks for the play yesterday....I usually don't play soccer and stumbled on your play out of lack of other sports playing yesterday....Glad I did. I got on Dortmond with you for something to watch at work..... Loved it.

    I will be checking in from now on so just wanted to thank you for throwing out your pick..... I am guessing not many people get on this forum.

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    I think the line is a little skewed towards Sevilla, but I also see Rennes having a hard time scoring in this game. They have been having trouble scoring goals lately and Sevilla is a tough team to score against at home. Rennes cost me some real money last week so I am not jumping at the chance to bet them again. Would not be surprised to see a 1 or 2 to nil game, but just not enough there for me to bet it.
    You shoulda played the exact score line. I think 1-0 was +575. Good call and glad it was 1-0, not 2-0!

  14. #74
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    Thanks Coach. We have a small but dedicated following in here and we usually make money. Kid and I compliment each other well, but I think everyone that follows here regularly makes money. I try to narrow my plays and bet larger amounts on games I like. I tend to do very well in champions league, etc., but not as good in the leagues except for Germany where I tend to do well given my background. Soccer is the best sport in the world to bet! Feel free to chime in whenever you want, I am happy to answer questions, etc.

    Thank Flap, definitely got that one right. I did add the under in one of my parlays after writing back to you!!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  15. #75
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coach Woody View Post
    Thanks for the play yesterday....I usually don't play soccer and stumbled on your play out of lack of other sports playing yesterday....Glad I did. I got on Dortmond with you for something to watch at work..... Loved it.

    I will be checking in from now on so just wanted to thank you for throwing out your pick..... I am guessing not many people get on this forum.
    This is Madjacks hidden gem! Lots of winning picks flow through this forum that's for sure.

  16. #76
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    What do you have cooking up for the weekend Mr. B? Can I get your opinion on a Bundesliga total? Thoughts on the over 3 in the Leipzig/gladbach game. These teams go over alot. Both are top 7 in just about every offensive category , shots, shots on net, goals, crosses, etc. Was curious if that made your card.

    Thanks in advance

  17. #77
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    This is a tough card. It is hard to predict how some of these teams are going to play off of CL. I definitely would lean to the over in that game as Leipzig was certainly exposed against Man U and Gladbach is playing very well. I like Gladbach in a Pk in this one. I could certainly see a draw also.

    Not a lot I really like today, so not blowing CL money on game I am not thrilled about.

    I did put in a small three teamer for some action:

    Bayern -1/Dortmund/Gladbach+1 - +125
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  18. #78
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    Ended up hitting the parlay, but small payout. I have been having a lot of success with these higher juice (buying lines down) parlays.

    Small play for today:

    Leeds Pk -116 - Playing this solely based on the line and the fact that Leicester is probably a little tired. Just for some action today.

    NFL bored me after the early games so had some time to cap CL. Not much is thrilling me tomorrow except one game for me:

    Bayern -1 -207
    Bayern Ov 3.5 -185 (or 4 -117)


    Bayern has been rolling in the CL and I knew they would be sluggish over the weekend. While this game may not look exciting to many, it is for Bayern. They can not lose this game just as a matter of national pride. The best team in Germany against the best in Austria. A loss would be really bad for them so I expect them to be on their game tomorrow which means goals. I bought it down but not opposed to the 4 either. I think we see a 4-1 type game. I have become a bit addicted to buying the lines down now that I am primarily using a much larger book. I know the juice turns many off, but the juice only matters if you lose. It has been working for me, so I am sticking with it.

    Having said that, here is the parlay I just put in:

    Bayern -1
    Ajax Ov 2.5
    Atalanta +1
    Man City -1.5 (though about -1 but makes payout +276)

    Pays +364

    Atalanta line is one I will be watching. My guess is Liverpool will get even more money overnight but they are a poor road team in CL and Klopp has never won a CL game in Italy.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  19. #79
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    Bayern brings home the big money once again in the CL. Took some time but we got the high scoring game I thought it would be.

    Schedule is not so thrilling tomorrow either, but this is in:

    Dortmund Ov 2.5 -175 - Not sure we see all the scoring we saw today, but I expect goals in this game.

    I have Sevilla -1 and Chelsea -1 to finish off a couple parlays, so not playing anything else. My gut says PSG beats Leipzig, but don't love it. May add a couple team totals. Will try to post if I do. Ended up playing Bayern TT and Man City TT along with Kid.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  20. #80
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    Another solid CL week!!

    Not really capping the Euro given the number of games but I played the following since I have money to play with:

    Spurs Ov 2.5 -201
    Leicester Ov 2 -255
    AC Milan Ov 2.5 -134

    Pays +264
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  21. #81
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    And another parlay winner.

    I am on a roll with these parlays so put in another for tomorrow:

    Bremen Ov 2.5
    Sassuolo Ov 2.5
    Brighton Ov 2

    Pays +294
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  22. #82
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    Great parlay when you lose all three!!

    Breeder's Cup weekend (at one of my favorite places in the world!) so not much time for soccer capping this weekend, plus I always play the leagues light after CL, but have to comment on the big one in Germany.

    I will start by saying that even though I tend to do well in Germany, I also tend to screw this game up. Year after year I give Dortmund too much credit at home and end up talking myself out of the right play. Also, the league games tend to be lower scoring than most think. However, I think this game will closely resemble the recent SuperCup match that Bayern won 3-2. Both teams have been playing a tough schedule and both have some weaknesses in the back. Dortmund is a brutal place to play, but without fans they really lose their advantage. Dortmund's mistake in this game is that they usually play too conservative rather than taking the game to Bayern. You have to attack Bayern to beat them and Dortmund has the fire power to do it.

    Dortmund certainly has the talent to beat Bayern, but they will not get my money until they prove they can do it when it really matters. Bayern loves to make statements in these games to prove that they will win the league just like every other year.

    Bayern -124
    Bayern Ov 3 -209


    Taking the Ov at 3 is pricey, but I am making it the larger play since I have CL money to use and my gut tells me this is not going to be a 1-0 or 1-1 game. I have been wrong about this before, but you have to cap it based on how they are playing and the teams they have, and I think both teams have issues in the back.

    Busy, busy day tomorrow with this game, college football, Breeder's Cup and Kid's big game. Will have all the devices working!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  23. #83
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    Don't think I could have nailed that one any better. Yes, I did play the 3-2 exact score for a couple bucks!!!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  24. #84
    Great work. Thx for posting. Fun game


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  25. #85
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    For the hell of it BTTS parlay for tomorrow:

    Germany/Czech
    Turkey/Crotia
    Belgium/Swiss
    Spain/Netherlands

    +819
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  26. #86
    Omg, CZE so close to equalizing which would have been huge!


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  27. #87
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    Yeah, the German goalie screwed me. Should have had that one.

    I bought all the Euro qualifying games up as much as it made sense and did a 4-team Under parlay. All of these games are going to be very tight. The Georgia vs Macedonia game is the biggest in both countries maybe ever.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  28. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Yeah, the German goalie screwed me. Should have had that one.

    I bought all the Euro qualifying games up as much as it made sense and did a 4-team Under parlay. All of these games are going to be very tight. The Georgia vs Macedonia game is the biggest in both countries maybe ever.
    Don't know your lines, but I will assume you nailed this! Bang on reads, well done.

  29. #89
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    Thanks Crook, would have been very nice without the two late Hungary goals, but still made some good money.

    I played this one so far for tomorrow:

    Germany TT Ov 2.5 -105

    See no reason Germany does not put up 3 in this game as the Spain and France put up 4 and 7, respectively, on them.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  30. #90
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    Great call on Germany I tagged along

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