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  1. #91
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  2. #92
    MLB line movement October 18
    Patrick Everson

    The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.

    MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.

    The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

    MLB line movement

    The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.

    Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles’ starter wasn’t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.


    *******************************


    MLB
    Dunkel

    Sunday, October 18


    Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

    Game 909-910
    October 18, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    (Anderson) 16.960
    LA Dodgers
    (TBD) 19.012
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Dodgers
    by 2
    10
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -140
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Dodgers
    (-140); Over






    MLB

    Sunday, October 18


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    Trend Report
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    Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
    Atlanta
    Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    LA Dodgers
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
    LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Sunday, October 18


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ATLANTA (43 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (51 - 20) - 8:15 PM
    IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA DODGERS are 30-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 43-28 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    ATLANTA is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday this season.
    ATLANTA is 78-64 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 110-77 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 20-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
    ATLANTA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 3-3 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
    4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)

    IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    ANDERSON is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
    His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

    TONY GONSOLIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
    GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.321.
    His team's record is 0-2 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    909ATLANTA -910 LA DODGERS
    LA DODGERS are 40-26 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

  3. #93
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

    ATL at LAD 08:15 PM

    LAD -155

    U 8.5

  4. #94
    ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES

    10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
    10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
    10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
    10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
    10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
    10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
    10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


    Totals.......17-9-0.......65.38%.....+38.25

  5. #95
    Tuesday’s 6-pack
    Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:
    — Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)
    — Browns (-3.5) @ Bengals
    — Cowboys (-3) @ Redskins
    — Lions @ Falcons (-3)
    — Panthers @ Saints (-7.5)
    — Bills (-12.5) @ Jets

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,020
    PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

    Quote of the Day
    “Everybody could have done one more thing to help us get this win. That’s all of us. That’s the coaches and the players. Everyone has gotta be accountable to that.”
    Bengals coach Zac Taylor

    Tuesday’s quiz
    Who did the Tampa Bay Rays play in their other World Series appearance?

    Monday’s quiz
    Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.

    Sunday’s quiz
    Nick Saban coached LSU, before he went to coach the Miami Dolphins for two seasons.


    ********************************************


    Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

    13) Chiefs 26, Buffalo 17
    — Chiefs won all three of their road games, 2by 3-14-9 points.
    — KC is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games following a SU loss.
    — Under is 4-1-1 in their games this season.
    — Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.

    — Buffalo lost its last two games, giving up 68 points, after a 4-0 start.
    — Buffalo is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.
    — Game was played on a rainy, cruddy night in western New York.
    — Chiefs ran the football for 245 yards; they outgained Buffalo, 466-206.

    12) Cardinals 38, Dallas 10:
    — Arizona’s first three drives: 16 plays, 23 yards, three punts.
    — Redbirds’ next four drives: 26 plays, 240 yards, four TD’s.
    — Arizona ran the ball for 261 yards.
    — Cardinals scored 38 points despite Murray completing 9-24 passes.
    — Arizona is 3-1 on the road this season.

    — Last five games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34-38 points.
    — Ezekiel Elliott lost fumbles on two of his first eight touches.
    — With 11:30 left in 3rd quarter, play-by-play guy said that Dallas lacked enthusiasm, a nice way of saying they quit. No one disagreed with him.
    — NFC East teams are 4-14 ATS outside their division, 1-9 at home.

    11) Why did Red Sox trade Mookie Betts? Isn’t it good to have great players on your team?

    10) Last three Georgia-Alabama games, Dawgs led all three games at halftime, then got outscored by a combined 68-17 in second half and lost all three.

    9) Tennessee Vols signed a new defensive line coach to a 2-year contract this year, but they fired the guy Sunday, after only four games. Must be an interesting story there.

    8) Social media flipped out Saturday night, when Tampa Bay took starter Charlie Morton out of the game despite Morton having thrown only 66 pitches. Everything worked out and the Rays won, but analytics people are obsessed with the idea that facing hitters a third time in a game is a bad idea, even if the pitcher doing it is way better than the reliever.

    Thats part of what makes life interesting, different ideas being debated.

    7) When the Tampa Bay Rays won the American League in 2008, it was also their first-ever winning season; they became a franchise in 1998. Starting in ’08, they’ve been over .500 nine of the last 13 years.

    6) Of the 32 current NFL head coaches, 11 of them were also head coaches at a previous stop.

    10 defensive coordinators, 7 offensive coordinators have previously been head coaches.

    5) Tennessee Titans lost OT Taylor Lewan for the year with a torn ACL; big loss.

    4) You wonder how much playing these weeknight games on national TV will help recruiting for Sun Belt, AAC football programs that are getting an unusually high amount of TV exposure.

    It is good football, the games have been fun to watch; kids are going to see the games, and it has to help their recruiting a little bit, no?

    3) Long time ago, there was a guy who played in the ABA named Wes Bialosuknia; he played at UConn in college, played one year for the Oakland Oaks, scoring 8.7 ppg.

    He had a great nickname; the Typographical Terror.

    2) Leads seem to less safe in the NFL this year; in six weeks of play, at least one team every week has blown a lead of 16+ points, with the Bengals doing it this past week- they led the Colts 21-0 in Indianapolis Sunday, lost 31-27.

    1) One of the great broadcasters of all-time announced his retirement this week; Mike Emrick is one of, if not the best hockey play-by-play guy ever (with the late Dan Kelly). Few years ago, Emrick was very nice to a friend of mine’s son, who is an up-and-coming hockey announcer. He is just a classy guy and was great fun to listen to. Enjoy your retirement!!!

  6. #96
    MLB public betting, line movement October 20
    Patrick Everson

    Mookie Betts and the L.A. Dodgers rode a Game 7 win and NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves to return to the World Series, where the Superbook at Westgate installed them as -215 favorites

    MLB betting odds move on to the final frontier of this shortened season, the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays both needed seven games in their respective league championship series, and now they’ll meet in the Fall Classic.

    Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for World Series odds as a whole and Tuesday’s Game 1. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

    The SuperBook put up its price to win the best-of-7 World Series late Sunday night, opening at Dodgers -215/Rays +185. There was apparently a little Tampa Bay money early, with a move to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.

    John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, was hoping for Braves-Rays, a big win-win, as both sides would’ve been very good for the house. But he’ll settle for Rays-Dodgers.

    “The Rays are awesome for us,” Murray said. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

    That’s no surprise, with Las Vegas books always attracting plenty of Dodger dollars, and surely more will show up on the series price and on a game-by-game basis over the next week or so.

    Meanwhile, PointsBet USA opened Dodgers -182/Rays +145, and the first move was significant, to Dodgers -200/Rays +160. Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said Los Angeles represents a substantial loss should it claim the championship, while Tampa Bay would be a big win.

    “The Dodgers were the second-most-bet team to win, behind the Yankees,” Eichner said. “The Rays only account for about 4 percent of the overall bet count on the (World Series) market.”

    MLB line movement

    UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Game 1 at Dodgers -175/Rays +148, and the first moves were down, as the moneyline is now Los Angeles -162/Tampa Bay +138. The total is stable at 8.

    The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 NLCS deficit against the Braves, finishing with a 4-3 Game 7 victory on Sunday night. On the flip side, the Rays blew a 3-0 ALCS lead against the Astros, but came through with a 4-2 Game 7 win Saturday.

    Although Game 1 starters weren’t set late Sunday night, The SuperBook went ahead and posted the line at Dodgers -165/Rays +155, with a total of 8. There was no movement Sunday night for Tuesday’s tilt, with first pitch at 8:09 p.m. ET.

    MLB public betting

    UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: It's two-way action early on Game 1 at DraftKings, with 55 percent of tickets on the Rays and 59 percent of money on the favored Dodgers. Ticket count on the total is two-way, with the Over at 56 percent, though money is more pronounced on the Over, at 70 percent.

  7. #97
    951TAMPA BAY -952 LA DODGERS
    LA DODGERS are 40-27 SU (11.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.




    MLB
    Dunkel

    Tuesday, October 20


    Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers

    Game 951-952
    October 20, 2020 @ 8:09 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    (Glasnow) 16.129
    LA Dodgers
    (Kershaw) 19.006
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Dodgers
    by 3
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -175
    7 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Dodgers
    (-175); Under




    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Tuesday, October 20


    World Series

    Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)

    Glasnow is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts.
    — Rays are 12-3 in his starts this season.
    — Under is 3-3 in his last six starts.
    — Glasnow allowed six runs in four IP in three relief stints vs LA.
    — He is 2-3, 5.47 in six postseason starts.

    — Tampa Bay is 13-5 in its last 18 games; they survived blowing a 3-0 series lead vs Houston, and their bullpen had the last two days off.
    — Rays are 49-25 this season.
    — Under is 8-1 in their last eight games.
    — Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

    Kershaw is 3-1, 3.60 in his last five starts.
    — Dodgers are 10-3 in his starts this season.
    — Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
    — Kershaw is 11-12, 4.31 in 35 playoff games (28 starts).
    — He is 2-0, 1.88 in two career starts against the Rays.

    — Dodgers are 52-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
    — Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
    — LA is 31-11 away from home this season.
    — Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
    — Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.




    MLB

    Tuesday, October 20


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    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
    Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
    LA Dodgers
    LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  8. #98
    GAME SCORE PICK UNITS STATUS

    Tampa Bay

    LA Dodgers LAD -175 Over 7.5

  9. #99
    ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES

    10/20/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
    10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
    10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
    10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
    10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
    10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
    10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


    Totals.......19-9-0.......67.85%.....+48.25

  10. #100
    Wednesday’s 6-pack
    Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:

    — Green Bay (-3.5) @ Houston
    — Seattle (-3.5) @ Arizona
    — San Francisco @ New England (-2.5)
    — Kansas City (-9.5) @ Denver
    — Tampa Bay (-3) @ Las Vegas
    — Pittsburgh (-2) @ Tennessee

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,338
    PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


    Quote of the Day
    “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.”
    Voltaire

    Wednesday’s quiz
    In The Wizard of Oz, what state was Dorothy from?

    Tuesday’s quiz
    Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Phillies in their other World Series appearance, in 2008.

    Monday’s quiz
    Tom Hanks earned his first Academy Award nomination for his role in Big.


    **************************

    Wednesday’s Den: My running diary of Sunday’s 1:00 NFL games

    12:59: We have eight games on one screen on channel 702 of DirecTV, a good way to follow the early games, as long as the Rams aren’t playing- they play tonight. Bengals-Colts is the one game that isn’t being shown on this screen.

    1:04: Minnesota QB Cousins throws an INT on the Vikings’ first play; no bueno. If there were fans in the stands, they’d be grumbling right now.

    1:07: Falcons take advantage; Ryan-to-Jones gives Atlanta a 7-0 lead, first TD of the day in the league.

    1:08: 4-1 Bears score an early TD, lead the Panthers 7-0 early on in Charlotte.

    1:12: Lamar Jackson scrambles, throws a TD, Ravens lead 7-0 in nPhilly, as the NFC East’s struggles continue. Coming into this week, NFC East squads are 3-12-1 ATS outside the division.

    1:14: Washington misses a field goal against the Giants; Detroit scores an early TD against the the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

    Speaking of Jacksonville, if I owned the Jaguars and we were home underdogs to Detroit, I’d have a talk with my football people and ask what the BLEEP is going on????

    1:15: Baker Mayfield throws a pick-6, Browns are down 10-0 in Pittsburgh- they’ve lost 16 games in a row in Pittsburgh, and appear to be on a fast track to #17.

    1:19: Tannehill throws a TD for the Titans; they led Houston 7-0.

    When Tannehill was a rookie with Miami, they were on HBO’s Hard Knocks, and there was a conversation where Tannehill and Matt Moore, the other QB, are talking in a meeting room. Tannehill tells Moore that he doesn’t know who the other three teams in the AFC East are.

    “How do you not know that?!?!?!” Moore was as incredulous as I was.

    1:22: Denver leads 6-0 in Foxboro, kicking field goals on their first two drives, but not taking full advantage of scoring opportunities.

    1:23: Giants 3, Redskins 0— The moveable force leads the resistible object.

    1:25: Falcons lead 10-0 in Minnesota; this is where I’m supposed to point out that Kirk Cousins makes $28M a year, but won only one playoff game (1-2). He is 20-18-1 in 2+ years QB’ing the Vikings.

    I admire Vikings’ coach Mike Zimmer; guy has had eight operations on one of his eyes but he still coaches. I’ve had two eye operations in the last 13 months; has to be very difficult for him to work as hard as coaches do while properly maintaining his eye, or maybe that’s why he’s had to have eight operations- could be he isn’t maintaining the eye.

    1:27: Carolina kicks a FG, trail Chicago 7-3, first game today where both teams have scored.

    1:32: Giants lead 10-0; Jones throws a 23-yard TD pass to Slayton.

    1:35: Titans lead Houston 14-0; the Texans traded star WR DeAndre Hopkins, then fired the guy who traded him four games later— not a well-run franchise. Great players help win games.

    1:42: Ravens lead 14-0 in Philly; Eagles drafted Carson Wentz in 2016, won the Super Bowl the next year, but Wentz had gotten injured during the season and Nick Foles was the hero, but now Foles plays for the Bears and Wentz is increasingly viewed as a suspect.

    1:45: Denver leads 9-0 in Foxboro; they have Drew Lock back at QB, and have FG’s on their first three drives. It is super-ironic that John Elway is struggling to find a franchise QB for the team he once starred for.

    1:50: Daniel Jones runs for 49 yards; problem is, he runs better than he throws, which isn’t so great for an NFL QB.

    I miss watching NFL games at the Westgate Theater in Las Vegas, the same room where Barry Manilow performs. Seats 1,500 people; there is a concession stand on the left, betting windows in the back, and people have always been cool when I’ve been there.

    One Sunday in the Westgate 2-3 years ago, I’m talking to this guy wearing a Cardinals’ jersey; we’re shooting the breeze about sports, gambling, Las Vegas; all of a sudden, it dawns on me that this guy is betting $6,000 a game, while I’m stressed out about my $30 wager. Oy.

    Las Vegas is the big time of gambling; can’t wait to get back there.

    2:00: Denver leads 9-3 in Foxboro; over bettors are queasy. Teams are moving the ball, but not scoring touchdowns.

    Bengals led 21-0 in Indy, now lead 21-7; at one point, Joe Burrow was a 3rd-string QB at Ohio State, playing behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Anyone want to ask Urban Meyer about that?

    2: Baker Mayfield scrambles, throws another INT; Cleveland QB’s are measured by how they do against the Steelers/Ravens, who rule the AFC North. This ain’t going well.

    2:07: Tannehill has Tennessee ahead of the Texans 21-7; in a couple weeks, Titans play Cincinnati, and Tannehill will meet up with Zac Taylor, whose father-in-law is Mike Sherman, the guy who moved Tannehill from WR to QB while they were both at Texas A&M.

    2:14: Denver leads 12-3 at halftime in Foxboro; four possessions, four FG’s.

    This is where I break down Bill Belichick’s career as a head coach:
    — With Tom Brady at QB: 219-64, six Super Bowl titles
    — Without Tom Brady at QB: 56-65, and down 12-3 at halftime today

    2:16: Giants lead 13-10; Washington’s Kyle Allen throws a TD with 0:13 left in the half. Giants have mostly dominated the half, but lead only 13-10.

    2:28: Eagles get stopped on 4th-and-a in the red zone, trail 17-0 with 0:56 left in the half, and may be at least a little grateful there are no fans there to boo them off the field.

    Note to self; buy some Halloween candy, Reese’s cups or KitKats. That way, if no kids show up, I’ve still got a bowlful of candy I like.

    With most of the games at halftime, time for a nutritious meal, a bowl of Fruit Loops.

    2:48: Broncos lead 15-3 in Foxboro; five possessions, five FG’s. Has this ever happened before, a team with field goals on their first five drives?

    2:53: Houston has rallied, cutting the Titans lead to 21-17.

    Jennifer Garner must have a great agent; she does a ton of commercials.

    2:55: New England’s tight end fumbles, Denver has the ball in NE territory- they kick yet another FG, now lead 18-3.

    3:00: There was a time 10-11 years ago when Jacksonville owner Shahid Khan tried to buy the Rams, when they were in St Louis. Mercifully, that didn’t happen, because Stan Kroenke moved the Rams to LA and that’s a good thing.

    3:02: Falcons lead 23-7 in Minnesota; Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach, and has gone thru offensive coordinators very quickly. Watching the Vikings gag away that game in Seattle Monday night, it had to be a dispiriting loss, and today they look like a depressed team.

    3:05: Guy on the Eagles runs 70+ yards, fumbles, and a teammate recovers for a TD, but then Philly goes for two points- why? When was it decided that going for two all the time was such a great idea?

    3:09: Jones throws a terrible INT in the end zone, Giants still lead, but only 13-10.

    3:11: Matt Ryan throws another TD pass, Falcons lead 30-7, and interim coaches are about to go 2-0 this season in their first game after the firing.

    3:13: Lamar Jackson runs 37 yards for a TD; he could’ve run to Newark before he got hit, and the Ravens are jogging, 24-6.

    3:19: Tennessee misses a FG, still trails 23-21, in what looks like the best of these early games.

    3:20: Steelers lead Cleveland 31-7 and Case Keenum is in at QB for the Browns; I’ll be doing a look at Keenum’s unusual career pretty soon. Guy moves around a lot.

    3:25: Cam Newton gets the Patriots in the end for the first TD of the day, but they miss on the 2-point play, trail 18-9 with 8:31 left. First TD of the game for either side.

    3:27: Tennessee’s Derrick Henry runs 94 yards for a TD, Titans lead 29-23 with 9:23 left.

    3:29: Washington kicks a FG; they’re 13-13 with the Giants, 8:56 left. My cousin bet the Giants on the money line. Kind of glad I’m not there right now.

    3:32: Deshaun Watson throws a 53-yard TD pass, Houston leads 30-29 with 8:29 left. Thisis really a good game.

    3:37: Denver QB Lock throws an awful INT; Patriots get the ball on Denver’s 25, but only kicks a field goal, and trails 18-12 with 3:23 left.

    3:42: Lock throws ANOTHER interception, and New England is going to steal this bleeping game. Denver just cut Blake Bortles, who can’t possibly be worse than the guys the Broncos have been using at QB.

    3:44: Giants get sack/fumble/TD, take a 20-13 lead with 3:29 left.

    3:50: Former QB Julian Edelman throws an 18-yard pass to Cam Newton on a trick play; Newton is way bigger than the DB’s, is bigger than lot of linebackers. Patriots are on the move.

    3:52: Eagles’ tight end Zach Ertz sprains his ankle; the Philly offense is messed up.

    3:53: Houston scores a TD, leads 36-29; they go for 2 to get ahead by nine points (two scores) but miss on the try. I have no problem with that strategy.

    3:54: Denver holds on, wins 18-12 in Foxboro, without scoring a TD. Belichick falls to 56-66 in his career with a QB other than Brady.

    3:56: Redskins score TD with 0:36 left, trail 20-19, and Rivera has them go for two points- they don’t get it, much to the relief of a certain living room on Long Island.

    Unless your QB is a great runner, I’m a firm believer in kicking the PAT and going to OT, but football coaches have this macho attitude that we can run them over, but it makes very little sense. Then again, no one asked me.

    4:00: Titans score with 0:04 left to force overtime, and now the TV guys are killing Romeo Crennel for going for two after Houston’s last TD.

    4:07: Tennessee wins coin toss in OT, Watson winces noticeably, not showing whole lot of faith in his defense.

    4:12: Once down 21-0, Colts have rallied to lead Indianapolis 31-27; Burrow throws a pick in Colt territory with 0:32 left.

    Philip Rivers grew up in Alabama, but neither Alabama/Auburn saw him as a starting QB, so he went to NC State, where he started for four years, and since has played 17 years in the NFL.

    Go figure.

    4:14: Derrick Henry scores TD, puts Houston’s defense out of its misery, 42-36. He ran the ball for 221 yards and looked like a man amongst boys.

    Tennessee is 5-0, but they have a four wins by 3 or fewer points, plus this overtime win.

    4:19: Eagles have rallied, have ball down 30-22, after Baltimore killed off only 0:27 on their last drive. After a terrible interference call on Baltimore, Wentz sneaks in for a TD with 1:55 left, but the 2-point try fails, and Ravens hold on, 30-28.

    Eagles scored four TD’s, but never tried an extra point- they went for two four times.

    Pretty good card of early games, considering it is October, when league tries to hide lot of the lesser-appealing non-divisional matchups.

  11. #101
    MLB public betting, line movement October 21
    Patrick Everson

    Willy Adames and the Rays hope to bounce back from a World Series Game 1 loss when they face the Dodgers in Game 2 Wednesday night. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -145.

    MLB betting odds are on the board and getting attention for Wednesday night’s Game 2 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Los Angeles Dodgers got out of the gate quickly and aim to take control against the Tampa Bay Rays.

    The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s Game 2 and updated World Series odds.

    MLB line movement

    The Dodgers spread eight runs across the fourth, fifth and sixth innings Tuesday night, ripping the Rays 8-3 to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven World Series. For Game 2, The SuperBook at Westgate was among the first out of the gate with odds late Tuesday, opening at Dodgers -145/Rays +135, and there was no early line movement.

    The SuperBook opened the total at 8, with the Over at -120. That also had no early movement for Wednesday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

    MLB public betting

    The consensus is often indicative of public opinion, and late Tuesday night, there was interest in both teams for Game 2. Still, the lean was toward Los Angeles to take a 2-0 series lead, with the Dodgers attracting 54 percent of early picks.

    Odds to win the World Series

    Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180 to win the World Series. With Los Angeles now up 1-0, the series price jumped to Dodgers -410/Rays +340. John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, said pre-series that his shop has a significant rooting interest.

    “The Rays are awesome for us,” Murray said. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

  12. #102
    MLB
    Weather Report

    Wednesday, October 21



  13. #103
    MLB
    Dunkel

    Wednesday, October 21


    Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers

    Game 953-954
    October 21, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    (Snell) 16.778
    LA Dodgers
    (Gonsolin) 15.816
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 1
    9
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -150
    8
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+130); Over





    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Wednesday, October 21


    World Series

    Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (1-0) (@ Arlington)

    Snell is 2.75 in his last seven starts.
    — Rays are 9-6 in his starts this season.
    — Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.
    — Snell threw two scoreless innings in a two-inning start vs LA last year.
    — He is 2-3, 2.88 in seven postseason games (5 starts).

    — Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
    — Rays are 49-26 this season.
    — Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
    — Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

    Gonsolin is starting, which makes it a bullpen game.

    — Dodgers are 53-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
    — Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
    — LA is 32-11 away from home this season.
    — Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
    — Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.




    MLB

    Wednesday, October 21


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
    Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
    LA Dodgers
    LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
    LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games


    ---------------------------------------------------------


    953TAMPA BAY -954 LA DODGERS
    LA DODGERS are 21-11 SU (11.7 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.




    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Wednesday, October 21


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TAMPA BAY (49 - 26) vs. LA DODGERS (53 - 20) - 8:08 PM
    BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 49-26 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 74-37 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 33-17 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 38-15 (+19.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 21-8 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
    SNELL is 24-12 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
    LA DODGERS are 195-205 (-64.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
    LA DODGERS are 147-152 (-34.8 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

    BLAKE SNELL vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    SNELL is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.000.
    His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

    TONY GONSOLIN vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
    No recent starts.

  14. #104
    Game 2 Odds: Rays vs. Dodgers
    Tom Wilkinson

    The Los Angeles Dodgers are three wins away from wiping away more than three decades of pain.

    The Dodgers beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-3 in Game 1 on Tuesday night, as Clayton Kershaw looked great on the mound.

    Tampa Bay will look to even the series on Wednesday night with Blake Snell taking the mound, while manager Dave Roberts named Tony Gonsolin as Los Angeles’ Game 2 starter shortly after Game 1 went final.

    The first pitch is once again slated to take place shortly after 8:09 p.m. ET with FOX broadcasting the game.

    Betting Resources

    Matchup: World Series Game 2
    Venue: Globe Life Field
    Location: Arlington, Texas
    Date: Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020
    Time: 8:09 p.m. ET
    TV: FOX

    Line Movements

    Money-Line: Dodgers -150 Rays +135
    Run-Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+140) Rays +1.5 (-167)
    Total: 8
    Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -410, Tampa Bay +330

    Blake Snell makes his World Series debut in Game 2 as the Rays face the Dodgers at Globe Life Field. (AP)

    Game 1 Recap

    Mookie Betts made some history on Tuesday night. He became the first player since Babe Ruth to record a walk and two stolen bases in one inning during the World Series. That wasn’t all Betts did though, as he went 2-4 with a home run.

    The superb Kershaw also vanquished some of his October demons with a solid six innings of work. Kershaw struck out eight batters and only allowed two hits and an earned run on 78 pitches.

    For our purposes, the Dodgers cashed as Game 1 favorites and they connected on the run-line (+130) as well.

    The game was scoreless after three innings but the pair erupted for nine runs in the next three innings and that helped the 'over' (7.5) cash for the game and in the first five innings (3.5).

    Los Angeles went 'over' on its team total (4.5) but Tampa Bay (3.5) feel a run short.

    For bettors following our Playoff Results, you can see that run-line favorites have gone 27-5 in the 2020 postseason when favorites have won the game. Overall, favorites are 32-16 (67%) straight up.

    Game 2 Pitching Analysis

    Starting Pitchers


    Blake Snell
    Tony Gonsolin

    Blake Snell has been solid during the postseason. In four starts, he is 2-2 with a 1.32 WHIP and a 3.20 ERA. He has had a knack for pitching himself into trouble with 10 walks in just 19.2 innings of work, but he has also done a decent job of getting himself out of jams with an 8.7 K/9. Snell is walking batters at a higher rate than he did in the regular season, and his strikeout rate is down.

    It’s highly unlikely that Snell makes it past the sixth inning. He has yet to pitch into the seventh inning in the postseason, and he has only thrown 14 innings in his last three starts. His high walk rate has helped contribute to an elevated pitch count, and Snell is averaging almost 18 pitches an inning.

    Roberts didn’t initially name a Game 2 starter prior to the start of the World Series, opting to wait until he saw what happened in Game 1. He has now opted to go with Tony Gonsolin, and Gonsolin is out to shake off a bad performance on Sunday.

    We saw Gonsolin give up two hits, three walks, and two earned runs early in Game 7 of the NLCS. That put the Dodgers in a hole, but the team battled back to punch their ticket to the World Series as the next three relievers held the Atlanta Braves hitless.

    Gonsolin did start Game 2 against Atlanta too, surrendering five earned runs in 4.1 innings, but he will only be an opener here and shouldn’t be on the mound for more than two or three innings.

    Game 2 Bullpen Analysis

    Dodgers could use Committee Approach


    That means it’s going to be a heavy bullpen day for the Dodgers. We won’t see Pedro Baez or Joe Kelly after they both pitched an inning against the Rays in Game 1, but anyone else is on the table.

    Julio Urias could be available for short work after throwing three innings on Sunday, and Dustin May might see some action too as he has been used in a reliever role throughout the playoffs.

    Provided the game is close, flamethrower Brusdal Graterol and Kenley Jansen figure to make an appearance too.

    Rays armed and ready for Game 2

    One of the good things for the Rays despite the loss was that they didn’t blow through their best bullen arms. Josh Fleming saw 2.2 innings of work to eat up some innings, while Ryan Yarbrough and John Curtiss each threw 0.2 innings too.

    Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, and Pete Fairbanks are all still ready to go, and manager Kevin Cash won’t hesitate if he feels the need to turn to one of his three best arms early in Game 2.

    Players to Watch - Dodgers

    Max Muncy had a great game in his second trip to the World Series. Muncy was one of three Dodgers with multiple hits on the evening, going 2-4 with two RBI and two runs while also reaching on a walk. He has the best eye on this team with 15 walks in 53 plate appearances, as no other Dodger has more than eight walks.

    NLCS MVP Corey Seager had a great day from the plate too, although he didn’t register a hit. Seager walked three times in the evening, and his 1.124 OPS is still the best on the team by a significant margin.

    With Snell on the mound, Roberts will likely insert right-handed hitters A.J. Pollock and Enrique Hernandez into the bottom of the lineup.

    Pollock has a 1.185 OPS against lefties this season, while Hernandez has a hot bat after registering four hits and two home runs in the NLCS.

    Players to Watch - Rays

    The only Rays batter with multiple hits on Tuesday night was Kevin Kiermaier.

    Kiermaier opened up the scoring for Tampa Bay with a solo blast off Kershaw in the fifth inning, and he drove in a run in the seventh inning. That’s great news for the Rays, as it was feared that Kiermaier wouldn’t be the same hitter after taking a fastball off the hand in the ALCS against the Astros. The Gold Glove winning center fielder had a scant .605 OPS before that bomb.

    It continues to be a frustrating postseason for Brandon Lowe.

    Lowe went 0-4 with a strikeout against the Dodgers, and he has just six hits in the postseason. He failed to register a single hit against the Yankees in the ALDS, but he had hoped to bounce back after picking up a hit in three straight games before the World Series.

  15. #105
    WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21

    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

    TB at LAD 08:08 PM

    LAD -140

    U 8.0

  16. #106
    ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES

    10/21/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1250 Detail
    10/20/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
    10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
    10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
    10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
    10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
    10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
    10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


    Totals.......19-11-0.......63.33%.....+35.75

  17. #107
    Thursday’s 6-pack
    Odds for this week’s PGA stop, the ZoZo Championship:

    +1100— Rahm
    +1275— Schauffele, Thomas
    +1450— McIlroy
    +1625— Morkiawa
    +2400— Hatton
    +2700— Reed

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 221,150
    PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


    Quote of the Day
    “Freshmen come in thinking, ‘If I can score, I can play.’ They quickly find out if they can defend, they’ll play.”
    Steve Fisher

    Thursday’s quiz
    There are two guys in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who also won a gold medal in the Olympics; one is Bob Hayes, who is the other?
    Hint: He played before the Super Bowl era

    Wednesday’s quiz
    In The Wizard of Oz, Dorothy was from Kansas.

    Tuesday’s quiz
    Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Phillies in their other World Series appearance, in 2008.


    ********************

    Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

    13) Rays 6, Dodgers 4 (series 1-1)
    — Blake Snell didn’t allow a hit until 5th inning; bullpen got the last 16 outs.
    — Brandon Lowe snapped out of a slump, homered twice for the Rays.
    — Joey Wendle knocked in three runs for Tampa Bay.
    — Game 3 is Friday night in Arlington.

    12) Dodger OF Cody Bellinger hit 47 homers last year, seems headed to becoming a big star, but he’s got a ways to go before he catches up with his dad, at least in one category.

    Clay Bellinger played in 193 big league games over parts of four seasons with Bronx and the Angels; he hit 12 career homers, struck out 82 times, bur he also won THREE World Series rings, two in New York, a third one with the Angels. Cody is trying for his first one this year.

    Today, I’m looking at how NFL teams do on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line; can.a team’s offense carry the team, if need be? Lot of strong teams have really good special teams and defenses, so the offense’s job is a somewhat simpler, but which offenses drive the field the best?

    11) Top teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
    — Raiders 3.37 points/possession
    — Steelers 3.16
    — Chiefs 2.95
    — Dolphins 2.62
    — Rams 2.58

    10) Worst teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
    — Jets 0.48 points/possession
    — Washington 0.69
    — Broncos 0.86
    — Bears 1.24
    — Cleveland 1.43

    If a team gives up a defensive TD/safety, it goes against them in this category.

    9) Obviously, teams that have better field position are more likely to win. These teams have started the lowest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
    47.5% (29 of 61)— Ravens
    50%— Colts
    51.0%— Steelers
    57.8%— Buccaneers
    60.8%— Titans

    All teams with winning records.

    8) These teams have started the highest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
    85.7% (48 of 56)— Jets
    82.5%— Vikings
    81.5%— Chargers
    79.4%— Cowboys
    78.3%— Patriots

    Interesting that New England has started 36 of 46 drives 75+ yards from the goal line.

    7) Since 1986, NFL teams that started the season 0-6 won an average of 3.0 games the rest of the season.

    6) Clemson is a 46-point favorite over Syracuse Saturday; there is one sportsbook in America offering a money line on this game. Risk $1,000 on Clemson, win a dollar, One dollar.

    5) Dallas Cowboys are 3-10 in their last 13 playoff games, losing their last eight road playoff games- their last road playoff win was 1993, in San Francisco.

    4) Jets have been outscored 114-29 in the second half of games this year.

    3) Only one person has won an Olympic Gold Medal and also played on a Super Bowl champ; Bob Hayes, who was a very fast receiver for the Cowboys, from 1965-74. He won a gold medal in the 100 meters sprint at the 1964 Olympics in Tokyo.

    2) Memphis Tigers’ WR Damonte Coxie has opted out of this season, and is headed to prepare for the NFL Draft; he caught 16 balls for 175 yards in two games this year, then sat out the UCF game Saturday, and now he’s bolted the team for greener pa$ture$.

    Last two years, Coxie caught a combined 148 passes for 2,450 yards and 16 TD’s.

    1) 3-3 Miami Dolphins are changing QB’s after their bye week; rookie Tua Tagovailoa will get his first NFL start against the Rams next week, replacing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had been playing really well.

  18. #108
    Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

    NFL leaders in passing yardage:
    1,856— Dak Prescott, Dal
    1,843— Matt Ryan, Atl
    1,786— DeShaun Watson, Hst
    1,760— Carson Wentz, Phil
    1,711— Josh Allen, Buff
    1,699— Patrick Mahomes, KC

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 222,324
    PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


    **********

    Armadillo: Friday's Den: Random stuff with the weekend here

    13) Eagles 22, Giants 21:
    — Eagles scored two TD’s in last 4:38 to pull out this win.
    — Daniel Jones had an 80-yard run; Giants ran ball for 160 yards.
    — Giants lost their last five visits here, by 1-5-3-3-6 points.

    — Eagles won last seven series games; five of those wins were by 6 or fewer points.
    — Underdogs covered six of seven Eagle games.
    — Philly survived 2nd quarter where they had ball in red zone three times, but scored only three points- they missed a 29-yard FG.

    12) NFL jerked around their TV schedule for this Sunday; Seattle-Arizona moves to the Sunday night slot, Bucs-Raiders moves to 4:05, probably because Las Vegas put several players on the COVID list this week, including several offensive linemen.

    11) Had this been a normal baseball season, Dodgers’ payroll would’ve been $222,115.000; Tampa Bay’s payroll would’ve been $72,489,233.

    10) LSU will start true freshman QB TJ Finley this week, in place of injured starter Myles Brennan; this will be Finley’s first college start. Another true freshman QB, Max Johnson, is also expected to play some for the Bayou Bengals.

    9) The Holiday Bowl will not be played this season, bowl organizers announced Thursday, citing the coronavirus situation; the Holiday Bowl had been played every year since 1978.

    8) Baltimore Ravens traded a 2021 3rd-round pick and a 2022 conditional 5th-round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for Yannick Ngakoue. NFL trade deadline is November 3rd.

    7) When Pac-12 starts their football season, teams will need to have 53+ players active and ready to play, with 7+ of those 53 being offensive linemen.

    6) In their first four games, Buffalo Bills had 24 plays that gained 20+ yards; in their last two games, they’ve had only three plays of 20+ yards.

    5) Jordan Spieth’s father is caddying for him this week at the ZoZo Championship; Spieth’s regular caddy had a death in the family and was unavailable.

    4) Indiana Pacers named Nate Bjorkgren their new head coach; he spent the last two years as an assistant coach in Toronto, helping them win the 2019 title. As recently as 2007, Bjorkgren was a high school coach in Arizona.

    3) It snowed in Minnesota Tuesday. On October 20. No bueno.

    2) Dallas Cowboys have trailed by 17+ points at halftime in three of their four home games.

    1) Appalachian State 45, Arkansas State 17:
    — App State ran ball for 305 yards, outgained Ark State 521-368.
    — App State converted 10-15 third down plays.
    — App State had three TD plays of 46+ yards.

  19. #109
    MLB public betting, line movement October 23
    Patrick Everson

    Brandon Lowe rediscovered his home run stroke in Game 2, launching two long balls to help the Rays even up the World Series. Tampa Bay opened as a +140 underdog for Friday's pivotal Game 3.

    MLB betting odds are posted and drawing action for Friday night’s Game 3 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. With the series knotted up, both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays look to gain an edge in the Fall Classic.

    Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement and public betting for Friday’s Game 3 and the updated World Series odds.

    MLB line movement

    Tampa Bay staked itself to a 5-1 lead by the middle of the fifth inning in Game 2 Thursday, then held on for a 6-4 victory over Los Angeles to tie the best-of-seven World Series at a game apiece. DraftKings opened Game 3 at Dodgers -165/Rays +140 overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and there was no movement by Thursday afternoon.

    The total opened at 7.5 and was also stable Thursday for Friday’s 8:08 p.m. ET clash.

    MLB public betting

    With literally no movement on the moneyline so far at DraftKings, it’s clear that Thursday action is light, still more than 24 hours out from first pitch. That said, as was the case in Games 1 and 2, bettors are leaning toward Tampa Bay. The Rays are attracting 57 percent of early bets and 60 percent of early money.

    On the total at DraftKings, there’s much stronger consensus early on, with 86 percent of tickets and 89 percent of money on Over 7.5.

    The consensus also favors the Rays, with 54 percent of early picks on Tampa Bay, and the Over is also drawing 54 percent of early picks, as of Thursday afternoon.

    Odds to win the World Series

    With the early back-and-forth game results, the price to win the World Series has also swung back and forth. Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180. After L.A.’s Game 1 win, the price shifted to Dodgers -410/Rays +340.

    Now, with the World Series tied at 1, The SuperBook is practically back at the pre-Game 1 number, with the Dodgers -200 and the Rays +175.

    “The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

  20. #110
    955LA DODGERS -956 TAMPA BAY
    TAMPA BAY is 90-58 SU (26.2 Units) after 2 straight games where they committed no errors in the last 3 seasons.




    MLB
    Dunkel

    Friday, October 23


    LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay

    Game 955-956
    October 23, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Dodgers
    (Buehler) 16.417
    Tampa Bay
    (Morton) 17.518
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 1
    7
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Dodgers
    -155
    7 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tampa Bay
    (+135); Under





    MLB
    Long Sheet

    Friday, October 23


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA DODGERS (53 - 21) vs. TAMPA BAY (50 - 26) - 8:08 PM
    WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA DODGERS are 147-153 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
    TAMPA BAY is 50-26 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 11-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 34-17 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 39-15 (+20.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 31-17 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
    TAMPA BAY is 22-8 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    TAMPA BAY is 1-1 (+0.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

    WALKER BUEHLER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
    No recent starts.

    CHARLIE MORTON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
    MORTON is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.385.
    His team's record is 1-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    MLB
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Friday, October 23


    World Series

    Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (1-1) (@ Arlington)

    Morton is 4-0, 2.45 in his last five starts.
    — Rays are 8-4 in his starts this season.
    — Under is 7-3 in his last ten starts.
    — Snell threw two scoreless innings in a two-inning start vs LA last year.
    — He allowed 11 runs in 11 IP in two career starts against the Dodgers.

    — Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games.
    — Rays are 50-26 this season.
    — Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
    — Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

    Buehler is 1-1, 1.57 in his last five starts (23 IP)
    — Dodgers are 10-2 in his starts this season.
    — His last five starts stayed under the total.
    — Buehler is 2-1, 2.44 in ten postseason starts.
    — He’s never pitched against Tampa Bay.

    — Dodgers are 53-21 this year; they’ve won four of last five games.
    — Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
    — LA is 32-12 away from home this season.
    — Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
    — Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.




    MLB

    Friday, October 23


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay
    LA Dodgers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

  21. #111
    Game 3 Odds: Dodgers vs. Rays
    Tom Wilkinson

    We had a rarity during the 2020 MLB postseason on Thursday. Neither the Tampa Bay Rays nor the Los Angeles Dodgers had yet to experience an off day in the middle of a series.

    Both teams surely appreciated the time off, but now it’s time to return to action on Friday. The Rays will be the nominal hosts in Game 3 on Friday, October 23, shortly after 8:00 p.m. ET, and it will be broadcast on FOX.

    Betting Resources

    Matchup: World Series Game 3
    Venue: Globe Life Field
    Location: Arlington, Texas
    Date: Friday, Oct. 23, 2020
    Time: 8:09 p.m. ET
    TV: FOX

    Line Movements

    Money-Line: Dodgers -150, Rays +140
    Run-Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105), Rays +1.5 (-125)
    Total: 7.5
    Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -200, Tampa Bay +175

    Tampa Bay right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound in Game 3 of the World Series against Los Angeles. (AP)

    Game 2 Recap

    Tampa Bay evened the series with a 6-4 victory over LA on Wednesday. Blake Snell was masterful until the fifth inning, and the Rays’ bullpen got the job done from there, allowing only three hits and two earned runs in the final 4.1 innings.

    Brandon Lowe was the hero of the day for the Rays. Lowe has struggled throughout the postseason, but he opened the scoring with a solo home run off Tony Gonsolin in the first inning and hit a two-run blast off Dustin May in the fifth inning.

    For the second straight game in this series, the 'over' tickets cashed for the game and in the first-five inning wagers as well.

    Tampa Bay connected on both of those wagers as well, leading 5-2 after five innings and prop bettors looking for early action also saw the Rays score in the first inning, which may have helped or hurt your wagers.

    If you follow our 2020 Playoffs Betting Results, you can see that the run-line favorites have been a great return for bettors while those tinkering in the totals market have seen great back-and-forth decisions.

    Game 3 Pitching Analysis

    Starting Pitchers


    Walker Buehler
    Charlie Morton

    The Dodgers will send their ace to the mound on Friday. Walker Buehler has been electric for each of the last two years. He came into his own in 2019 with a 14-4 record coupled with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Buehler showed excellent command with a 5.8 K/BB, and while his walk rate is up, his WHIP was even better in 2020. He finished the season with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 36.2 innings of action.

    Buehler has been great in four playoff appearances over the last month. He has allowed just 15 hits in 19 innings of work, striking out 29 batters and posting a 1.89 ERA. However, he has had some issues with control. He has walked 11 batters during that span, and that may be due to his blister issues. Buehler has been dealing with multiple blisters on his pitching hand for the last month.

    Charlie Morton will head to the bump for the Rays. Uncle Charlie has been a reliable postseason starter throughout his long career. He has appeared in 12 playoff games, and he boasts a 7-2 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His command has improved in October with a 9.6 K/9 in the postseason, and Morton has won all three of his starts for the Rays in these playoffs.

    Morton faced the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series when he was on the Houston Astros, and he was lights out in two games. He posted a 1.74 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP in 10.1 innings of work, and he closed the door on the Dodgers in Game 7 of that series.

    Postseason Team Records with Pitchers

    Dodgers - Walker Buehler (3-1)


    Oct. 17 - L.A. 3 Atlanta 1
    Oct. 12 - L.A. 1 Atlanta 5
    Oct. 5 - L.A. 5 San Diego 1
    Sept. 30 - L.A. 4 - San Diego 2

    Rays - Charlie Morton (3-0)

    Oct. 17 - Tampa Bay 4 Houston 2
    Oct. 12 - Tampa Bay 4 Houston 2
    Oct. 7 - Tampa Bay 8 Houston 4

    Game 3 Bullpen Analysis

    Rest brings Rewards


    The day off means that both bullpens will have a little extra time to recharge.

    That is a little more beneficial to the Dodgers, as they used six relievers in Game 2 after using four relievers in Game 1. Dylan Floro, Victor Gonzalez, Alex Wood, and Dustin May might not see much action since all four pitchers have thrown at least 24 pitches in the first two games, and postseason standout Julio Urias won’t be available since he is starting Game 4 on Saturday night.

    Tampa Bay used all three of its best relievers on Wednesday with Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks each seeing a lot of work.

    Diego Castillo had a three-pitch outing, so he is likely to be one of the first arms out of the bullpen, and either John Curtiss or Ryan Thompson will probably take the hill too.

    Players to Watch - Dodgers

    Corey Seager’s great postseason continues to get better. Seager became the first shortstop to hit seven home runs in a single postseason after his solo blast off Fairbanks in the eighth inning in Game 2. He was the only Dodger with multiple hits on Wednesday, picking up two of LA’s five total base knocks, and he currently has a 1.161 OPS in these playoffs.

    The Dodgers have the best one to six line-up in the majors, and that has paid huge dividends already in this series.

    Manager Dave Roberts has not tinkered with the batting order, and his stars continue to answer the call with all six players getting on base at least once in each game against the Rays. Seager has been the best, reaching base five times, but the consistency down the line has been impressive.

    Players to Watch - Rays

    It took 16 games for Brandon Lowe to finally make an impact in the postseason. Lowe had just six hits and one home run prior to Game 2 on Wednesday night, but Kevin Cash has stuck with his young star. He was rewarded with his two home run outing, and the Rays are hoping he can build off that. To highlight his struggles these playoffs, Lowe only has a .476 OPS after those long balls.

    Randy Arozarena has made a lot of history over the last month, and he added to his list of achievements on Wednesday. He recorded his 22nd hit of the postseason, tying Derek Jeter for the most hits in one postseason by a rookie. Arozarena has carried the Rays to the World Series with seven home runs and a 1.222 OPS. The next highest mark on the team is Manuel Margot with five home runs and a .962 OPS.

    Tampa Bay is one of the biggest examples of the three true outcomes era of baseball. Collectively, the Rays have struck out in nearly 30 percent of their at-bats this postseason, but they also have 28 home runs and 52 walks. This team is only hitting .213, yet they are making the most of the long ball.

    After watching the first two games in this series, Seager and Lowe are both listed at 11/1 odds to win the World Series Most Valuable Player award.

  22. #112
    FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23

    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

    LAD at TB 08:08 PM

    LAD -155

    U 7.5

  23. #113
    ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES

    10/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail...Janzen you BUM !
    10/21/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1250 Detail
    10/20/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
    10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
    10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
    10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
    10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
    10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
    10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


    Totals.......20-12-0.......62.50%.....+35.25

  24. #114
    Sunday’s 6-pack
    NFL leaders in receiving yardage:

    601— DeAndre Hopkins, Az
    566— Robby Anderson, Car
    555— Stefon Diggs, Buff
    546— Calvin Ridley, Atl
    537— Justin Jefferson, Minn
    503— Amari Cooper, Dal

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 224,771
    PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


    Quote of the Day
    “One play to win it. We’ve been close, and I’m sick and tired of being close.”
    Indiana coach Tom Allen, on why he went for two points after a TD in OT Saturday

    Sunday’s quiz
    Which two starting QB’s in the NFL played college football at NC State?

    Saturday’s quiz
    Eight teams have played in a Super Bowl, but have never won one.

    Friday’s quiz
    Four NFL teams have never played in a Super Bowl: Detroit, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville.


    **************************


    Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

    13) Indiana 36, Penn State 35 OT— I could write about this game for an hour.
    — Hoosiers snapped a 41-game losing skid to top 10 teams, which dated back to 1987.
    — Penn State led 21-20, had the ball with 1:40 left and could’ve run out the clock, but Indiana let them score a TD and Penn State stupidly did so- take a knee, win 21-20. Then they didn’t go for 2, when that would’ve put them up 29-20 and ended the game.
    — Indiana tied the game with 0:22 left in regulation.

    — Both teams scored a TD in OT; when Indiana scored to make it 35-34, they went for two- their QB scrambled and appeared to be stopped short of the goal line, but the linesman called it good, replay declined to overturn the call and the Hoosiers had their upset.
    — If I was James Franklin, I would’ve found the replay official after the game and given him a piece of my mind. To me, the ball hit out of bounds before it hit the pylon.

    — Anyway, Penn State outgained Indiana 488-211, outrushed them 250-41. Game shouldn’t have gotten to overtime.
    — Penn State had ten penalties for 100 yards, Indiana four for 36.

    12) Middle Tennessee 40, Rice 34 OT— You have to find a replay of this on the Interweb; Owls tried a 45-yard FG to win the game earlier in OT, the ball hits:
    — the right upright
    — the crossbar
    — the left upright
    — the crossbar again, and bounces out, no good.

    I’ve never seen that happen before; rough way to start your season- this was Rice’s first game.

    11) Auburn 35, Ole Miss 28
    — Rebels are only 1-4, but they’ve been fun to watch.
    — Auburn threw a 58-yard TD pass with 1:11 left for the win.
    — Teams combined to convert 21-32 third down plays.

    Watching these games with teams that didn’t play any non-conference games, you understand why teams schedule stiffs to play before conference play begins— they get the kinks out, gain some continuity, so they don’t look terrible when conference play begins.

    10) Rutgers 38, Michigan State 27
    — Spartans turned ball over seven (7!!!) times; hard to win that way.
    — Switching head coaches from Mark D’Antonio to Mel Tucker is not an upgrade. Tucker was 5-7 in his only season as a head coach, at Colorado LY.
    — Rutgers turned ball over three times themselves; they were outgained 369-276.

    9) Nevada 37, Wyoming 34 OT
    — Nevada’s punter was a star of the game; had a 75-yard punt, then a 72-yarder that pinned Wyoming back on their 2-yard line. Of course, if Wyoming’s punt returner would actually catch a punt, he would’ve helped his team’s cause a lot.
    — Cowboys kicked a 42-yard FG with 0:23 left to send the game to OT; freshman walk-on kicker made 4-4 field goals, while wearing a red shoe. Give the kid a scholarship; make sure he keeps using the red shoe.
    — Nevada led 28-6 with 3:00 left in third quarter, before Wyoming stormed back to tie it.

    — Fun to see Mountain West football on TV again; this was a wild game.
    — Nevada coach Norvell lost his father earlier this week. Our condolences to him.

    8) They’re building the Aztecs a new football stadium on the site of what used to be Jack Murphy Stadium, so San Diego State is playing home games in a soccer stadium in Carson, where the Chargers played home games the last few years.

    7) Upsets of the Day:
    — Rutgers (+11) 38, Michigan State 27
    — Wake Forest (+10.5) 23, Virginia Tech 16
    — Jacksonville State (+10) 19, FIU 10— Gamecocks are a I-AA team
    — San Jose State (+7.5) 17, Air Force 6
    — Indiana (+6) 36, Penn State 35 OT
    — Purdue (+4) 24, Iowa 20
    — Missouri (+3.5) 20, Kentucky 10

    6) Clemson 47, Syracuse 21— Clemson was favored by 46 or 47 points, but Syracuse had the ball, down 27-21 in third quarter, before reality set in. Clemson coasted here, and star RB Etienne left with an injury.

    5) Missouri 20, Kentucky 10: Random observation: Week-to week, teams are having wildly erratic performances. Mizzou outgained Kentucky 421-145 in this game, after Wildcats won their previous two games by a combined score of 58-9. Missouri ran 92 plays in this game, Kentucky ran only 36 plays.

    4) North Carolina 48, NC State 21:
    — Tar Heels ran the ball for 326 yards, gained 578 yards on the day.
    — NC State’s receivers were terrible in this game; they’re juggling backup QB’s with the starter breaking his leg. One of the WR’s dropped an easy TD, juggling it until a defender picked it off.
    — State threw the ball for 358 yards; 11 different kids caught a pass, but they were useless when the game was close.

    3) If you bet first half lines in college football, you probably know that Liberty is 26-7 ATS in their last 33 first halves. Independent Flames are 6-0 SU this season.

    2) This is a very 2020 thing: Army already accepted a bowl bid, to the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, where they’ll play a Pac-12 opponent.

    The thing is, Pac-12 won’t even start their football season for a couple more weeks, and one of their teams’ bowl opponents has already been decided. Very unusual. Very 2020.

    1) Rays 8, Dodgers 7 (series 2-2)
    — Brett Phillips, with a .202 lifetime average, had the game-winning hit.
    — Seager/Turner both had four hits for LA.
    — There was a run scored in eight consecutive half-innings, setting a World Series record.
    — This was third World Series game ever that, with today’s save rules, there were 3+ saves blown in the same game- the others were in 1960, 2011.
    — Hunter Renfroe finished this game at 1B, where he had played for an entire 9 innings in his entire big league career.


  25. #115
    MLB public betting, line movement October 25
    Patrick Everson

    Justin Turner and the Dodgers are back at it Sunday night for World Series Game 5 against the Rays. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -160/Tampa Bay +150.

    MLB betting odds are on the board and already getting action for Sunday night’s Game 5 of the World Series in Arlington, Texas. After a wild Game 4 that knotted this matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers aim to take one more step toward a title.

    The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s Game 5 and the updated World Series odds.

    MLB line movement

    Tampa Bay and Los Angeles battled back and forth throughout Game 4 Saturday night. In the bottom of the ninth inning, the Rays got a Brett Phillips RBI single with an error that allowed a second run to score, securing an 8-7 victory. The best-of-seven World Series is now tied at two games apiece.

    The SuperBook at Westgate opened Game 5 at Dodgers -160/Rays +150, with a total of 8, and there was no movement late Saturday night for this 8:08 p.m. ET Sunday start.

    MLB public betting

    The consensus, often indicative of where the public stands, showed two-way play late Saturday night. In a limited sample, the Rays were landing 53 percent of early picks.

    Odds to win the World Series

    Much like the game results, the World Series price keeps bouncing around. Prior to Game 4, the Dodgers were -500 and the Rays +400 at The SuperBook. Following Tampa Bay’s win, the price shifted to Los Angeles -200/Tampa +175, ostensibly right where it was before Game 1.

    The house continues to root hard for the Rays.

    “The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

  26. #116
    SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25

    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

    LAD at TB 08:08 PM

    TB +145

    O 8.0



  27. #117
    ALCS & NLCS RECORD THRU THE WORLD SERIES

    10/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1050 Detail
    10/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail...Janzen you BUM !
    10/21/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1250 Detail
    10/20/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
    10/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -25 Detail
    10/16/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +25 Detail
    10/15/2020 4-0-0 100.00% +2500 Detail
    10/14/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1250 Detail
    10/13/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -225 Detail
    10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
    10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


    Totals.......20-14-0.......58.82%.....+24.75

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