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Thread: NBA 2020-2021

  1. #91
    No buys yesterday.

    Good call on not going back to the MP with Chi Ov for a second night in a row as the stats I noted in yesterday's post held true and the gm stayed Un by double digits.

    The side spot with NO won. I passed because of a lack of data on NO in this spot.
    Next time, I'll weigh the overall stat (was 11-4) more than the individual team in the spot. Favs now 12-4.

    Today . . .

    No MP or NP totals.

    Sides: LAC, Den, Mem.

    If I buy anything I'll post.

  2. #92
    No buys yesterday.
    Good move because posted plays went 1-2.

    Today:

    MP has Chi/Mia Ov at 207' or fewer.
    Common number right now is 207.

    NP has Min/Utah Ov at 231 or fewer.
    Common number right now is 231.

    Sides has Mia -4'.

    No buys for me right now.
    I'm within 2-3 wins of my goal for the season, so I'll probably only play the top spots from now to the end of regulation play.

    Minn/Utah qualifies for the NP Ov fade (64%) but Utah was in this spot three days ago and it went Ov, so I'll pass.

    Miami is a HF, an 8-3 spot, so I'll take a closer look, check their record in this spot and if I like what I see maybe I'll buy it.
    Will post if I do.

    Good luck with your plays today.

  3. #93
    Yesterday was probably the worst day of the year for me.

    In NBA, I had three plays, two of them won, the third lost but it was the "Fade the NP Over" spot, which means it was a 3-0 day, $300 left on the table.

    In MLB, I abandoned my pledge to play all WF spots and fade all GT spots after WF went 0-5 and GT went 2-0 on Friday.
    Saturday?
    WF went 3-3, with some big money dogs winning, +$225.
    And GT's went 0-3, which would have been a profit of $300.
    All told, +$525 left on the table in MLB.

    And the only play I did make?
    J Madison in FCS, who blew a nice a halftime lead, but was still getting me a push at -14 until I got backdoored with 8 seconds left in the game. This, after their safety dropped an easy INT two plays before that.

    NEXT!

    No totals today.
    Sides: Memphis, Washington.

    No buys. Maybe later.

  4. #94
    No buys for me yesterday.
    Posted plays went 2-0.

    Yesterday I talked about what a lousy Saturday I had (not getting bets in on all the NBA/MLB winners I had circled and posted, and the bad beat in my FCS game) but it was even worse than I realized. Updating my logbook Sunday I see that I missed a rare play. MP 13 or > has only had 8 spots all year long and was 8-0, Ov 5-0, Un 3-0. Saturday's Chi/Mia Ov graded out at 14. I didn't see this on Saturday and missed the buy.
    And it won. Ugh.

    Updated charts:

    MP: 47-32, Ov 24-15, Un 23-17; 13 or > 9-0, Ov 6-0, Un 3-0

    NP: 31-42, Ov 15-28, Un 16-14, 13 or > 5-10, Ov 4-7, Un 1-3

    Sides: 29-13, Fav 14-6, Dog 15-7;
    RD 11-6, RF 2-3-1, HD 4-2, HF 10-3

    My record, sides/totals: 32-22
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    Today:
    Back with the rest, for now, early buy notice, NP Ov LAL/Orl; board split between 210/209'/209

    MP has Chi/Mia Ov (13 or >)

    NP has LAL/Orl Ov, Chi/Mia Ov

    Sides: Atl, NYK, Mem

    Let's look at these spots.

    MP has Chi/Mia Ov, and it's > 13.
    This is the exact same spot I missed out on Saturday, the one I noted at the top of this post. I don't like chasing missed opportunites, so despite the 6-0 record on these I'm thinking "pass." Then, after 'capping MP plays I move on to 'capping NP spots and what do I find? NP has the same game Over. And what do we do with NP Overs?
    Pass, fade if anything.

    For sides, looking at Atl, favs are 14-6, but . . . RF's are 2-3.
    RF's are the ONLY category that does not have a winning record. Tempted to buy Atl thinking that RF's will join RD's, HD's, and HF's and also have a winning record. I'll check to if Atl has a record in this spot before making a decision.

    HD's are a respectable 4-2, small data sample, but I don't want to jump on the NYK ATS streak.
    If you've been playing them and have + units from it, keep playing it. But I never recommend jumping on an already established streak.

    I don't like Memphis, same reason as the Chi-Mia spot, I didn't buy it yesterday and it won, I don't want to chase missed opportunities.

    For the last 3 weeks I've been tracking a play that rarely pops up, it has New Orleans today.
    It's 0-2. Hmmm . . . take LAC?

    Just the one buy for now, will post if I add anything.

    Buys:
    LAL/Orl Un 209'
    Last edited by RBD; 04-26-2021 at 11:27 AM.

  5. #95
    Adding . . .

    Buys:
    LAL/Orl Un 209'
    LAC -2

  6. #96
    Recap: 0-2
    Record: Sides/totals: 32-24
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    I stayed off the MP Ov > 13 spot, 6-0, it goes to 7-0.
    I faded the NP Ov spot, a 65% play, and LAL kills me by giving up a 40 pt quarter.

    Today:

    MP: Brook Ov, Minn Ov

    NP: Port Un, Mil Un.

    No buys, yet.

    Update: Yesterday, I mentioned one of the plays I track but don't post. It was 0-2 and had NO.
    I played the fade, and it lost, NO won, the play is 1-2 now. Today it has Hou.
    I like Minn -2 for a few reasons, and now that I see Hou is in the 1-2 spot I like them even more.
    With a record of just 1-2 it's not a lot of data, I know, but I have high hopes for this play being successful, and being added to my daily chart as a fade.

    At Statfox, not a single category has a winning record for Hou and that is extremely rare. Nineteen categories, eighteen losing records, the best is 1-1 when playing with two days rest.
    Minn is bad, but not nearly as bad as the Rockets. They shouldn't be Rd Favs, but at -1 there's not a lot of pts to cover, I just need them to win. The line is down to '1- now. I'm buying this game, just waiting to see if I can get -1.

    Buys:
    Minn -2
    Last edited by RBD; 04-27-2021 at 05:48 PM.

  7. #97
    To all reading this - please tell me you didn't play either MP Over yesterday, Brook/Tor or Minn/Hou.
    If you did, I apologize.
    Watching NBA scores come in last night I thought both plays lost, but they did and they didn't.
    They did lose if anyone played them Over, but they didn't because I'm in my office now, updating my logbook, and I see that both plays were Unders, not Overs.
    I didn't post them as buys, but again, sorry if any of you bought them.

    For record keeping, I'll mark them with green W's because as I say, I use these stats to make buying decisions so they have to be accurate. Though they are losses as posted, it's of no help in making future decisions if I mark them incorrectly on my chart.

    Recap: 1-0
    I hope I never have to use Minn as a Fav again, that is one lousy team.
    I watched the fourth quarter on espn's gamecast, and though the lousy Wolves tried their best to lose to the even lousier Rockets, they managed to get me a W.

    Record: Sides/totals: 33-24
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    Okay, I got back one of the two units I dropped on Monday, using this new play I'm tracking,
    1-3 now (3-1 fade.) It doesn't pop up often, but it has solid reasoning/stats to back it up, and as I said I have high hopes for it being a play I can use rather just another one of many tracked and abandoned as useless.

    Posted plays went 1-3, L's with the two mislabeled MP spots and NP Un in Port/Indy, a W with NP spot Mil/Char Un.

    Updated charts:

    MP 50-32, Ov 25-15, Un 25-17; 13 or > is 10-0, Ov 7-0, Un 3-0

    NP 34-43, Ov 17-28, Un 17-15; 13 or > is 5-10, Ov 4-7, Un 1-3

    Sides 29-16, Favs 14-7, Dogs 15-9
    RD 11-7, RF 2-4-1, HD 4-3, HF 9-3

    Today I have . . .

    MP has Port/Mem Un (yes, Un, I triple checked)

    Nothing for NP totals (LAL will qualify as an Un if the # hits 229 (currently 228' across the board and still rising?)

    Sides has Den -3'

    Not much to choose from.
    Don't like jumping on an MP Un after missing two W's with it yesterday.
    Den spot looks good, Favs 14-7 overall, HF's 9-3.
    Line dropping, no need to buy now if I'm going to buy it.

    Back with buys if I make any.

    UPDATE: Added spot, NP, LAL/Wash Un 229 or >

    Buys:
    Den -4
    Last edited by RBD; 04-28-2021 at 05:37 PM.

  8. #98
    Recap: 0-1

    Record: Sides/totals: 33-25
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    Every season there's those one or two games that make you want to stop handicapping and use your time for something else. I'm not talking about regular beats, like an Under you had nailed until the game went into OT, or even bad beats where freak occurences cost you a victory, which we all suffer a few each year.

    I'm talking about games where you did your work, ran the numbers, isolated the right play and bet on it - and your team couldn't perform the basic fundamentals of the game, things a high school team would be expected to handle properly.

    Laying 4 pts, Den was up by 9 pts with just 52 seconds left in the game.
    Then, with just 39 seconds left, they were up by 6 AND they had possession.
    No time out necessary, no game planning needed, it's a simple enough situation - the other team has to foul you because they're down 6 pt with just 39 seconds left.
    All YOU have to do is maintain possession and get fouled.
    But, in the final 39 seconds:
    Denver turned the ball over not once, not twice, but THREE times.
    And the Pelicans hit TWO three pointers.
    And Denver missed THREE free throws.
    And I lost by 2 pts.

    Some games make you want to spend your time on other things . . .

    Today:

    MP has Brook/Indy Un

    NP has Brook/Indy Un, Mil/Hou Un, Tor/Den Ov

    I'm going to run through the logbook to find the record of plays that qualify for both MP and NP.

    Sides: none.
    UPDATE, CORRECTION, GS -3'

    I'll be back if I buy anything, but after watching last night's debacle I'm really not in the mood for 'capping, much less investing on an NBA game.

    UPDATE: I found two games that were both MP & NP.
    One of them won, but it was an Over. The other was an Under (like tonight) and it lost.
    And . . . it was game with Brooklyn in it. I'll likely pass on tonight's spot.

    I'd like to fade the NP Ov spot (28-17, 62%) but I'm not about to give Den a chance to screw me two nights in a row.

    UPDATE #2:
    Sides are 29-17; Favs 14-8, Dogs 15-9.
    In the breakdown for Hm-Aw, pick out the anomaly in this group*: RD 11-7, RF 2-4-1, HD 4-3, HF 9-4.
    See it?
    RF's are the only losing record in the group.
    GS is in that category tonight and I'm betting the RF category soon joins the others in having a winning record.

    I know some bettors are thinking "Take GS tonight, they're going to want to bounce back from the disastrous 30 pt loss to Dallas", but that's not my thinking - they've been blown out other times this season and lost the next game. I'm buying this spot because it's 14-8 overall, and I watched Minn's last game - they are pretty bad.

    *
    HM/RD records should equal the # of total plays, but it's off by 1-2 games. Only way to correct it is to go through my log and recalculate every category. I'll try to get this done but it's time consuming; for now, I'll just go with these records.

    Buys:
    GS -4
    Last edited by RBD; 04-29-2021 at 05:38 PM.

  9. #99
    Back with full write-up, posting this early buy notice while the board is still split between 220/219' on SA/Bos.

    Recap: 0-1
    Record:Sides/totals: 33-26
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    GS had the lead going into Q4, then fell apart. I'm 1-4 for the week, need to put together a good weekend. I'll buy all plays that are hitting at 60% or better.

    MP has Port/Brook Un (59%)

    NP has SA/Bos Ov (61% fade, 63% when it's 13 or > like tonight's SA/Bos spot)

    Sides has SA +4, Utah +4' (Dogs are 15-9, 62%; RD's are 11-7, 61%)
    Waiting to see if these RD's go up before buying or not.

    I also bought Wash, something new I've been tracking, situational plays ON or AGAINST.
    The bet AGAINST spots are 3-0, the bet ON spot is 1-0. I was going to track a while longer and gather more W/L data before buying any of these, but in this game I have a team that qualifies as a play ON (Wash) playing a team that qualifies as a play AGAINST (Cleveland) so I bought it.

    Update:
    1) The Utah spot conflicts with a play ON Phx (the new play I'm tracking, mentioned above) so no buy on either team in that game.
    2) Bad move on buying the SA/Bos game early, it was dropping, now rising, 221/221' available.


    Buys:

    SA/Bos Un 220
    Wash -7
    Last edited by RBD; 04-30-2021 at 11:38 AM.

  10. #100
    Recap: 1-1
    Record: Sides/totals: 34-27
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    Getting a bad number on SA/Bos Un ended up being irrelevant, the game went way Over. The "fade NP Over" spot is now under 60%, so I probably won't buy anymore unless it rises again.

    The new situational play I wrote about came through with the winner on Washington. It also saved me from possibly betting and losing on Utah, as it called for a buy on Phoenix.
    Plays On are now 3-0, AGAINST are 5-0.
    I hope that play continues to produce over the last few games of the season, I need it.

    NP has Ind/Ok Un, Den/LAC Ov

    Sides has NO, Ok, Den, Utah

    SP (situational play, ON or AGAINST) has ON Memphis, AGAINST Hou, Cle

    I'm going to take a closer look at these spots.
    Back with buys if I make any.
    Last edited by RBD; 05-01-2021 at 09:49 AM.

  11. #101
    No buys yesterday.
    NP went 0-2
    Sides 1-2-1.
    SP went 2-1.

    NP Ov stayed Un, so that fade is now back at 60%.

    The latest tracked play that I'm posting, SP (ON/AGAINST) hit 2 of 3, it's now ON 3-1, AGAINST 7-0.

    Today . . .

    MP has Un in Brook/Mil.
    It's a rare 13 or >, which is 10-0, Ov 7-0, Un 3-0.
    But . . .
    NP has it as an Un too, at 13 or >, which is a 1-3 spot.
    NP also has Port/Bos Un, a 19-8 spot.

    Sides has SA, Phx, Tor.

    SP has one play, ON NY.

    The SP play is hot so I'd like to play it, but I'm not sure the Knicks should be double-digit Away favorites, even playing a team as lousy as Houston. At -10' there's just too much room for them to get a win at < today's number. Biggest they've been as a RF all year long was -4'. Their hot run is behind them now, I can't lay 10' here.

    Three days ago, MP and NP both had the same game.
    The play lost.
    It was an Under, like today's spot.
    And . . . it was a Brooklyn game.
    Can't pull the trigger on this one either.

    Only spot that has me interested actually is Toronto.

    I'm probably just going to watch my FCS money today, but if I buy anything I'll post it later.

  12. #102
    No buys yesterday, had Tor circled, never got back to it, too busy watching FCS games.
    I'm a BIG proponent of not varying your unit size within a sport, but I do vary it for different sports, and my college football buys are investments, not small $ like MLB, so I was focused on that yesterday.
    Nailed J Mad, now 7-2 here on FCS this season.

    Updated charts:

    MP 53-33; Ov 25-15 (62%), Un 28-18 (60%)
    13 or > 11-0; Ov 7-0, Un 4-0

    NP 39-48; Ov 19-29 (60% fade), Un 20-19
    13 or > 7-10; Ov 5-7, Un 2-3

    Sides 33-22; Favs 14-11, Dogs 19-11 (63%)

    SP (ON or AGAINST) 11-1, ON 4-1, AGAINST 7-0

    I didn't trust NYK laying 10' in the SP spot yesterday, they won by 25. I have to give NYK and the SP spot more respect this week when deciding on buys.

    Today . . .

    MP has Phil/Chi Ov

    NP has Orl/Det Ov

    Sides has NO, Port

    SP has 4 spots, all ON, Det, Wash, NYK, Mem


    Thoughts on qualifying games:

    Phil/Chi is a 62% spot, will take a closer look at it.

    Have a NP Ov fade. The record is solid, but I've been unlucky buying it lately.

    NYK and Mem play each other so that cancels those two SP spots.

    Det has lost 5 of their last 6 SU, 9 of their last 12; not liking that stat, but Orl has lost 7 of 9.
    Det qualifies, but weak, still, it's time to take SP spots from "charting only" and use them in buys.

    Buys:
    Det -1'
    Wash -3'
    Last edited by RBD; 05-03-2021 at 12:18 PM.

  13. #103
    Recap: Got a split, 1-1.
    Record: Sides/totals: 35-28
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    Used the latest spot, SP plays, and got a split. Knew Det was weak, barley qualified, but played it anyway based on overall record.

    From yesterday: "Have a NP Ov fade. The record is solid, but I've been unlucky buying it lately."
    Good move not using the NP Ov fade, saved $ as the game sailed Ov by 20 pts

    Sides went 0-2; 33-24 now, Favs 14-12, Dogs 19-12. Not getting much production from them lately (then again, I'm surprised I use sides at all.)

    The latest spot, SP, went 2-2 but with two teams playing each other a split was unavoidable in one game.
    That play is now 6-3 ON, 7-0 AGAINST, and I may have to lean on it these last few days of the regular season as nothing else is producing W's for me on a steady basis.

    And, I just finished 'capping, and . . . no SP spots today. Lovely (sarc).

    MP Brook/Mil Un
    NP Brook/Mil Un
    Sides Tor

    Just had Brook and Mil in the same situation (both MP and NP Un) a few days ago. and it won, the # was 242, it landed on 231. That game was MP 13 or > though, a 10-0 spot (3-0 Un); this game is NOT 13 or >.
    I didn't play it, it won. As usual, I don't jump on a play I previously stayed off of when it won. No buy (I'd fade and take Ov if anything.)

    Same thing with Tor, I said it was the only play I liked Sunday but didn't buy it because I was focused on FCS. It won.
    I don't feel like being Johnny-Come-Lately and jumping on it today after missing the opportunity on Sunday.

    I have a profit on the season and I want to lock it up so I'm going to play tight these last few games. I want the SP spots, they're the only ones I have confidence in right now, so I'll wait on them, hopefully have a few more before the season ends.

    Back with buys if I take anything.

  14. #104
    No buys yesterday.
    Posted plays went 3-0. Tor hit as a Side, RD, those are at 15-8 now, 65%, have to buy the next ones.

    Today:

    MP has Mem/Minn Un (29-18, 61%)
    NP has Bos/Orl Ov (20-29, 59% fade)

    Sides has Utah (14-12 overall, 9-5 as HF's, but Utah 0-2 as a side play last week, 0-1 as Fav, 0-1 Dog)

    SP spots: two plays, both ON, Mem, NYK.
    Mem is 0-2 in this spot, NYK is 3-0.

    I'm buying the MP spot with Mem/Minn Opened at 237, up to 239 now, wait to buy.
    Also buying NYK, may add Mem.

    UPDATE: Mem line getting hammered, 238/237' most houses now. Grabbed it at 238


    Buys:

    Mem/Minn Un 238
    NYK +3'
    Last edited by RBD; 05-05-2021 at 12:02 PM.

  15. #105
    Recap: 0-2
    Record: Sides/totals: 35-30
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    I'm the first to say I made a bad choice when I do, but no regrets for yesterday, I chose two plays with strong W %'s. Two weeks ago I was within 3 W's of my season goal. Now, I'm fighting just to stay in the black.

    Today:
    NP has Atl/Indy Un
    Sides has Wash
    SP has ON Wash

    NP 42-48, Ov 21-29, Un 21-19
    Sides 35-24, Favs 15-12, Dogs 20-12
    SP ON 7-4, AGAINST 6-0

    Two spots match, Sides and SP have Wash, so I'm on it.

    Buys:
    Wash +3

  16. #106
    Recap: 1-0
    Record: Sides/totals: 36-30
    Teaser 0-1, -120

    Review: Got a W with Washington, qualifying as a Side spot and the new SP spot.
    Got a great line buying it early at +3, they closed as 1-2 pt Favs. Late buyers at -2 got a Push.

    They almost blew it.
    Wash up by 3 pts, 7 seconds left, Raptors have possession - what do you do?
    Foul them, right?
    Nah, you let VanVleet hit a 3 pt'er and go into OT. (And people wonder why I yell and curse at the TV.)
    But, life is about learning from mistakes, so in OT, up by 3pts with 7 seconds left, Scotty Brooks does the right thing this time and has his guys foul Toronto.
    Good thing cuz I needed that W.

    NEXT!

    MP has Den/Utah Ov, 13 or >
    NP has Orl/Char Un, Minn/Mia Ov, Cle/Dal Ov
    SP has ON Phx

    MP Ov is 25-15; 13 or > is 7-0
    NP Ov is 21-29, Un 21-20
    SP is 14-4, 8-4 ON, 6-0 AGAINST


    Den/Utah Ov is the obvious play as an MP 13 or > spot of 7-0, but too many other factors point to an Under.

    Got 67% tracking with the SP ON spot, but the problem with this game is NYK came as close to qualifying as a play ON, barely missing by one category I rate games on.
    But, there's a reason I stick to the exact parameters for qualifying, and don't buy games that came close.
    I don't like that hook, so I'll hold off on buying, but it's very likely I'll buy Phx tonight.

    Back with buys if I make any.

    Update: Handicapping is like chess, try to see the board from as many angles as you can.
    I've been looking at today's spots, trying to come up with an angle to play or fade, and I came up with a different way to measure Ov/Un's.
    I don't know if it has value or not (no data collected yet, but I will add it to my daily routine to see if anything develops) but my #'s show Den/Utah spot has only 25% chance to go Over. Hate to pass up that 7-0 record in MP of 13 or > spots, but I'm going to.
    The Char and Dal spots come in at approx 50%, no edge there, but Minn/Mia grades out at 71% chance to go Over, so no fade on that one for me.

    Looks like a night off for me in NBA.
    Last edited by RBD; 05-07-2021 at 05:46 PM.

  17. #107
    I'm frustrated with my non-play yesterday.
    For the second time in a row I laid off of MP of 13 or > and watched it win, and it's 12-0 now.

    SP is 14-4, 8-4 ON, and I laid off Phoenix cuz I didn't want to give New York 6' pts. Phoenix blew them out.

    I talked myself off of two good plays, have to play smarter if I'm going to close the season the way I need to.

    Today:
    No totals in MP or NP.
    Sides I have Det, Tor, SA.
    SP has ON Wash.

    Det/Phil Analysis:
    Detroit won their last game.
    The last time Detroit won two games in a row was way back in March.
    This entire season Detroit has only one two games in a row twice.
    The Pistons longest winning streak this season is two games.
    Conclusion:
    Detroit is not a fun team to bet on.

    Yes, they're getting 10 pts, but. . . . FIVE of Philly's last seven wins have come by double-digits.

    I'm going to use the SP spot.
    I'm also going to use two totals from the different angle I'm working on, as mentioned in yesterday's update.
    Yes, it's new and I have no data other than it's 3-2, Ov 1-1, Un 2-1, but the last new angle I came up with is the SP spots, and they were 4-0 on my chart before I started posting them, 14-4 now. If this was the beginning of the season, and I had the whole year ahead of me, I'd chart a few more weeks before I start buying them, but the season's coming to an end, I don't have time to wait and see if they work, so I'm going to take a chance and jump right in today.

    Buys:
    Wash -3'
    Mem/Tor Ov (wait; opened 228; 227/226' now)
    Ok/GS Un 223'
    Last edited by RBD; 05-08-2021 at 11:04 AM.

  18. #108
    Recap: 0-3
    Record: sides/totals 36-33, teaser 0-1

    At the end of the season, when I need to finish strong, I have my worst day of the season.
    And, with juice, I'm in the red for the first time since February.
    I was thisclose to beating the NBA regular season, now I've only I have six days left to accomplish that goal.

    No Ov/Un spots, MP or NP.
    Sides has NO, Orl, Phx.
    SP has Phx.

    Phx is the obvious spot because it's active in two different systems, but it also puts me in that spot I always talk about that I hate - jumping on a play that I didn't take after it wins.
    I stayed off Phoenix as an SP spot 2 days ago against New York and they won.
    But, like I said, season's ending, I have to take shots where I have winning percentages on plays.

    Buys:
    Phx -7'

  19. #109
    Recap: 0-1
    Record: sides/totals 36-34, teaser 0-1 (-120)

    I'm hemorrhaging.
    I have four days to try to stop the bleeding and bank 5 units.

    Today's spots:

    No totals, MP or NP.
    Sides has Wash and Hou.
    SP has AGAINST Cleveland.

    Buys:
    Wash +8
    Indy -8'
    Last edited by RBD; 05-10-2021 at 12:14 PM.

  20. #110
    Recap: 2-0
    Record: Sides/totals 38-34, teaser 0-1 (-120)

    Okay, banked two yesterday, the Indy W by a 1/2 pt, always nice to win one by the hook instead of getting screwed by it. Good start to the week, I now have a VERY small profit in sides/totals (in sports betting, ANY profit is good, in any season, any sport, and for me, especially so in the NBA.) Now I need to get another W banked to cover the teaser loss.

    Updated charts:

    MP: 55-35, Ov 26-15, Un 29-20

    NP:43-51, Ov 22-30, Un 21-21

    Sides: 41-30, Ov 17-14, Un 24-16 (RD 19-11, RF 3-7-2, HD 5-6, HF 11-6)

    SP: 16-6, Ov 9-6, Un 7-0

    Today:

    MP has Mia/Bos Un

    NP has Mia Bos Ov, LAC/Tor Ov

    Sides has Min (RF), Sac (HF), NYK (RD)

    No SP spots today (Damn! Yesterday's play AGAINST Cleve puts SP's at 7-0 AGAINST, was hoping to get another today. Hope I get at least one more chance in the next three days.)

    I did a quick skim through my logbook and see four or five times where MP and NO had the same play, but only two times where MP and NP went head to head.
    I was surprised to find only two spots, and more surprised to see NP is 2-0.
    Mia/Bos just played two days ago and the game sailed Ov by 32 pts. No buy on this one.


    Buys:
    NYK +5

  21. #111
    Recap: 1-0
    Record: Sides/totals 39-34, teaser 0-1 (-120)

    Got the W I needed to cover the teaser loss, back in the + $ side now for the season.
    Used my third RD in a row (they're 20-11 now.)

    NY tried to blow it, blew a nice Q4 lead and ended up in OT, but I survived.
    Note/reminder for 'capping the post season after watching them choke in crunch time last night: despite their recent W streak, the Knicks won't go far in the playoffs, not tough enough and too one dimensional on O, defend Randle and Rose and you beat them.

    Today:

    No Ov/Un, MP or NP
    Sides has Wash, Brook, NO
    SP has ON Atl

    Conflict between Sides having Wash and SP having ON Atl; lean Atl but no buy.

    I'm barely in the + $, so I don't have house money to play with, not going to buy anything unless I have one of my top performers active (MP of 13 or > or SP AGAINST spots.)

  22. #112
    Be a Better Bettor Newsletter
    May 13, 2021

    I was leaning towards Atlanta -6 yesterday.
    It was a play in a strong system that has been performing well for me.
    But their opponent, Washington, was the play in another system I track.
    If I didn't have the conflict between the two systems I would have been on the Hawks.

    Even with the conflict, I was still leaning towards buying Atlanta right up until tip off.
    But "Discretion, valor, etc" - I stayed off the game; no action.
    The Hawks won.
    By 4 points.

    It's advice I try to impart throughout the season - YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY NIGHT.
    In fact, it's better for your bottom line if you DON'T bet every night.
    And it's good for your brain to take a night off from the stress-infused fun of sports betting, to recharge your batteries.
    Bet only when you believe you have a strong play.
    When you bet every day you are inescapably forcing bets, and forced bets usually end up in the L column.

    End


    I saved a unit last night by not taking the Hawks as an SP play. I liked them, but my system for sides called for Washington, and RD's were on a 5-0 run so I took the night off. And stayed above the profit line.

    Two days left now. I'm leaning towards taking tonight and tomorrow off, shutting down the regular season and starting up again on Saturday, when the post season begins.
    If I lose a game, I go into the red. If I win a game, I still have just a small profit for the season.

    My season goal is my sports betting version of the dictum, "Primum non nocere" - First Do No Harm.
    Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
    Some people say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to win money!"
    The simple fact is - MOST bettors lose, so the first goal is to have fun, but don't damage your bankroll.
    Goal # 2 is to end the season with a profit. ANY profit.
    Goal #3 is 67%.

    Right now, I have goal #1 and #2 in my hands.
    To put them at risk is going to take a very strong qualifying play in these last two days.

    Today:

    No Ov/Un spots again today. (Good thing I developed a system for sides or I would have a lot of days with no action.)

    Sides has one spot, Port.

    SP has a play ON NYK
    After last night's L, SP plays are 16-7, but the value is in AGAINST spots (On is 9-7, AG is 7-0)
    But NY is 3-1 in SP spots, and 1-0 as HF like tonight.

    Port is 10 or >, a 10-6, 60% spot.
    They grade out at 13. The highest grades this season came in two games, a 13 and 13'; both won.
    This will be a very hard spot for me to ignore.

    I watched Portland play last night on ESPN. I'm going to check their record in B2B spots, as well as their playoff positioning, to make sure this is a meaningful game for them (pretty sure it is from what I heard while watching last night.)

    If I buy anything I'll post it.
    Last edited by RBD; Today at 10:30 AM.

  23. #113
    Quote Originally Posted by RBD View Post
    Be a Better Bettor Newsletter
    May 13, 2021

    I was leaning towards Atlanta -6 yesterday.
    It was a play in a strong system that has been performing well for me.
    But their opponent, Washington, was the play in another system I track.
    If I didn't have the conflict between the two systems I would have been on the Hawks.

    Even with the conflict, I was still leaning towards buying Atlanta right up until tip off.
    But "Discretion, valor, etc" - I stayed off the game; no action.
    The Hawks won.
    By 4 points.

    It's advice I try to impart throughout the season - YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY NIGHT.
    In fact, it's better for your bottom line if you DON'T bet every night.
    And it's good for your brain to take a night off from the stress-infused fun of sports betting, to recharge your batteries.
    Bet only when you believe you have a strong play.
    When you bet every day you are inescapably forcing bets, and forced bets usually end up in the L column.

    End


    I saved a unit last night by not taking the Hawks as an SP play. I liked them, but my system for sides called for Washington, and RD's were on a 5-0 run so I took the night off. And stayed above the profit line.

    Two days left now. I'm leaning towards taking tonight and tomorrow off, shutting down the regular season and starting up again on Saturday, when the post season begins.
    If I lose a game, I go into the red. If I win a game, I still have just a small profit for the season.

    My season goal is my sports betting version of the dictum, "Primum non nocere" - First Do No Harm.
    Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
    Some people say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to win money!"
    The simple fact is - MOST bettors lose, so the first goal is to have fun, but don't damage your bankroll.
    Goal # 2 is to end the season with a profit. ANY profit.
    Goal #3 is 67%.

    Right now, I have goal #1 and #2 in my hands.
    To put them at risk is going to take a very strong qualifying play in these last two days.

    I usually 'cap NBA first, but there are a few early MLB games so I'm going to start with them today.
    Back with today's spots later this morning.

    No Ov/Un spots again today. (Good thing I developed a system for sides or I would have a lot of days with no action.)

    Sides has one spot, Port.

    SP has a play ON NYK
    After last night's L, SP plays are 16-7, but the value is in AGAINST spots (On is 9-7, AG is 7-0)
    But NY is 3-1 in SP spots, and 1-0 as HF like tonight.

    Port is 10 or >, a 10-6, 60% spot.
    They grade out at 13. The highest grades this season came in two games, a 13 and 13'; both won.
    This will be a very hard spot for me to ignore.

    I watched Portland play last night on ESPN. I'm going to check their record in B2B spots, as well as their playoff positioning, to make sure this is a meaningful game for them (pretty sure it is from what I heard while watching last night.)

    If I buy anything I'll post it.
    Appreciate the guidance!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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