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Thread: FCS 2021

  1. #1

    FCS 2021

    I'm tracking two plays in FCS, the same NP I used for Ov/Un's in FBS last year, and a play that picks Dogs.

    The Ov/Un play is 28-20, Ov 17-14, Un 11-6

    Games that have a diff of 10 or > have a record of 7-5, Ov 4-4, Un 3-1

    Games that have a diff of 13 pts or > are 6-2, Ov 5-1, Un 1-1

    My record of FCS plays posted here (NBA forum): 4-0

    I've also been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 9-3 overall this season. Favs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 6-0 so there may be value there if that % holds.

    This week, a good # of spots to choose from.

    Ov in Presby, Miss Valley St, Idaho St, Sam Houston, S Utah

    Un in Youngstown, 'Bama A&M, Del St, Incarnate, Murray St.

    Youngstown is 0-1 in this spot, Presby 1-1, Idaho St 1-1, Weber St 0-2, Jackson St 1-0,

    McNeese 2-2, Sam Houston 1-0, Del St 1-1, S Utah 0-2, Murray St 0-1.

    Sam Houston has a diff of 10 or >

    'Bama A&M has a diff of 13 or >

    Still have to do 'capping on sides, looking for live dogs, no buys for now.
    Last edited by RBD; 04-08-2021 at 04:58 PM.

  2. #2
    Lost a lot of plays, due to line moves they no longer qualify.
    Presby, Miss Valley St, Idaho St, Incarnate and Weber St all come off the board.
    And Sam Houston is no longer 10 or >,
    'Bama A&M no longer 13 or>, not even 10 or>, just a regular play now.

    No added games.

  3. #3
    No plays added, lost S Utah, no longer qualifies due to line moves.

    Buys:

    Youngstown State/Mizzoo St Un 41

    'Bama A&M/Jackson St Un 56

  4. #4
    Recap: 1-1.
    Why did I have a 1-1 day and not 1-0?
    Because I ignored my own advice, from my post in MLB, 4/9, while discussing FCS play:

    "I'm learning a little bit more each week, already have a few teams I'd prefer to stay away from when using Unders (like Deion Sander's Jackson St.")

    The game I lost this weekend? Un in Jackson St.
    DOH!

    Record: 5-1

    I'll have this week's spots and buys up on Friday.

  5. #5
    Qualifying spots to choose from this week, only two:

    Valpo/SD Un and Del St/S Car St Un.

    Well, at least they're Unders. Overs are 17-15, Unders are 12-8 on these spots this season. Not getting the same production on Unders as I did in FBS, but 60% is more than okay.

    Del St is 1-2 in this spot this season, all others 0-0.

    I have one early game, Valpo at 10 am, one late, Del St at 3 pm. I'm going to ride the early one, after results are in I'll make a decision on playing the later game or not.

    UPDATE: Added play, Presby/Drake Ov 35 (no buy for me)

    UPDATE: Presby game comes off the board do the line moves.

    Buys:

    Valpo/S Diego Un 49'
    Last edited by RBD; 04-17-2021 at 10:32 AM.

  6. #6
    Recap: Nailed another Under.

    After banking the early game I stayed away from the later Un spot for two reasons:

    1 - I was 1-1 last week for no gain, didn't want to risk 1-1 for a second week in a row.

    2 - Delaware's record in this spot was 1-2. That was the main reason, and the strategy paid off as they went Over again. Del is now 1-3 in this spot.

    Record: 6-1

    Reg season is finished.
    FCS Unders were 13-9, 59%. They did not perform as well as FBS NP Unders, but I didn't expect them to.
    And, I did a good job at picking which ones to use and which to avoid as I went 13-4 (I used an Ov or two in there also.)

    Now it's onto the post season.
    Eleven games this Saturday, I'll be back by Friday with an update and buys if I have any.

    Update:

    This week, I only have one spot that qualifies, Davidson/Jacksonville St Ov.
    Many of you know I lean on Unders because my history shows that's where I do very well.
    But, with so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I tracked a play on sides this Spring season.
    My 2021 chart shows me that my tracked play on FCS sides is just 25-23 (which is why I don't buy sides.)
    Favs 12-14, Dogs 13-9.
    And when I have games that have a diff of 10 or >, it's 6-1, Favs 3-1, Dogs 3-0.

    J Madison grades out at 10 or >.

    They were in this spot in two other games this season, and they're 2-0 ATS.
    Since I don't have any Unders to ride, I'll aim for 3-0 with J Mad -14.

    UPDATE: And one day later, they're 14'. Good move on buying early.

    Buys:

    J Madison -14
    Last edited by RBD; 04-22-2021 at 11:12 AM.

  7. #7
    Saturday morning update: Due to line moves, Davidson no longer qualifies.

    J Mad line is up 3', now -17', no longer qualifies for 10 or >.

    Buying early in the week at -14 was definitely the right move.

  8. #8
    Recap: 0-1

    Record: 6-2

    J Madison blew a nice a halftime lead, but was still getting me a push at -14 until I got back-doored with just 8 seconds left in the game. This, after their safety dropped an easy INT two plays before that which would have ended the game.

    I thought buying early in the week was the right move, getting JM at -14 (grading out to 10 or >) but the opposite was true because by game time they were -17', which graded out to a diff of just 7'. With that pt differential it no longer qualifies as a play and would be taken off my board.

    The only total I had, Davidson Ov, came off my board when the line moved up. I should have bought that one early - it went Ov by about 21 pts.

    With only five games on the schedule, I really didn't expect to get anything this week, BUT . . . I have two spots:

    N Dak/J Madison Un 53 and S Ill/S Dak St Un 54'

    Unders finished the season at 13-9, 59%

    REALLY don't like the N Dak/J Mad #, so much so that I may fade it and take the Ov.

    S Dak St defense is world's better than SE LA, but still not crazy taking an Un at 54' in a S Ill game after they and SE LA topped 100 pts two weeks back, and they hit 65 vs a decent Weber D last week.

    None of these four teams have qualified as an Un for this season, so I have no team records to look at.

    No buys, yet.

  9. #9
    They screwed me last week, but I like them in this spot, at this number. And I'm going to give them a second chance.

    They turned slacker in the second half last week, could have cost them, I expect to get a full effort for full four quarters this week.

    There are a couple houses still at 2' but -3 is the number most people can get, so that's what I'll use here.

    Update: S Ill/S Dak St game no longer qualifies as an Un.

    Buys:
    J Madison - 3.
    Last edited by RBD; 05-02-2021 at 12:12 PM.

  10. #10
    Recap: 1-0
    Record: 7-2

    NAILED that sucker, as J Mad was in control the entire game.
    It played out as if I wrote the script - ball control, clock control, wear out the N. Dak defense, lure the safeties in with the run, setting them up for deep passes, solid defense for 4 quarters, no slacking off in the second half like they did last week. Easily the best investment I made this season.

    From last week: "REALLY don't like the N Dak/J Mad #, so much so that I may fade it and take the Ov."
    You KNOW I don't like fading Unders in college football as they usually have my highest W %, but that was the right call as the game did go Over.

    This week, only one spot, J Mad/S Houston Ov.
    Overs finished the year 17-15 for a small profit, not a high enough W % for me to invest in here.

    I'll have some action for fun, small money though, and no buy recommendations.
    I finish Spring football at 14-5 (73%), 7-2 (77%) posted here.

    Looking forward to the upcoming college football season, dying to see how the NP Unders do.
    They won't perform as well as last year (23-4, 85% posted, 28-4 charted) but anything above 55% is good enough for me, as I shoot for the Grail at 67%.

    See ya in August . . .

  11. #11
    With only one game on the schedule, I didn't thing I would get anything that qualified, but . . .
    SH/S Dak St Ov 47

    After last week's win, Ov are 18-15 this season.
    For FYI/record keeping only, no buy for me.

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