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  1. #1
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    I LOVE OVERS - EURO EDITION

    The Euros are coming up fast boys, this is going to be great. This is one of my all time favorite sporting events, I can vividly recall this tournament going back 25+ years. It should be fun, I am starting to keep an eye on the lines, and I am doing some research. I will start logging a few totals. I will probably tread pretty lightly for the first week or so, but I have a number of matchups that intrigue me.

    BELGIUM/RUSSIA OVER 2 , 2 1/2 - 125

    This is starting to move I will book it in now.

  2. #2
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Wow Italy just cooked Czech yesterday , dumped 4 goals on them. I must say the Azzuri look like good value to me. Critics pick on their defensive depth, but these guys haven't conceded a single goal in 8 games. I believe that runs the Italy unbeaten streak to 28 games they haven't dropped an International since 2018. The team has a favorable draw in an easier group. I like the value sitting at 10-1 they very well could get a nice path right to the Quarter Finals. There are several teams that are playing a significant amount of their group games at home, Italy being one of them. They will be playing in the comfortable confines of Rome. I would put up Italy midfield and attacking against anyone. Again, compared to some of the other teams odds I think there is nice value at 10-1.

    I like Portugal team as well the odds came down on them to 8-1. The risk is they are in the Group of Death , no easy out of that group. Portugal is returning just about everyone from the Euro 2016 squad that raised the trophy. I like the Dutch team they have a favorable draw as well , and they sit at 12-1. I have to dig in more don't know if they have what it takes to go all the way, but I can see them catching lighting in a bottle and making a decent run.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Crookity; 06-05-2021 at 07:06 AM.

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    Hey Crook, love the enthusiasm. Euros is also one of my favorite events. Would love to be going this year and traveling to these great cities to see games, but not possible this go round.

    We may not see a lot of overs in the first couple group games. The first rule of this tournament is do not lose the first game so you tend to see a lot of teams playing it close to the vest. This is further exacerbated by the number of 3rd place teams advancing so a win and a draw likely guarantees advancement. I think this will create a lot of lower scoring games between top clubs that are counting on beating the worst team in the group. It certainly makes for great games, but may not see tons of scoring until the 3rd game in the group and then going forward.

    I am not much of a futures better, but I am liking Spain. If I play a future or two, I think I will have them in the semis which would could be over England. I fully expect England to choke once again. I like the Dutch team, but they can be unpredictable. I think Portugal is in for a fight. Not only did they get screwed with the draw, but they have to play in Germany and Hungary. This is a big advantage for Germany and Hungary is better than most think. They also have France last so they could be in a tough spot if they do not get a result in Munich. I will be on Belgium to win their group also. Denmark is getting too much credit.

    Should have a new thread up soon and look forward to getting back into the swing with games everyday!!!
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  4. #4
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Hey Crook, love the enthusiasm. Euros is also one of my favorite events. Would love to be going this year and traveling to these great cities to see games, but not possible this go round.

    We may not see a lot of overs in the first couple group games. The first rule of this tournament is do not lose the first game so you tend to see a lot of teams playing it close to the vest. This is further exacerbated by the number of 3rd place teams advancing so a win and a draw likely guarantees advancement. I think this will create a lot of lower scoring games between top clubs that are counting on beating the worst team in the group. It certainly makes for great games, but may not see tons of scoring until the 3rd game in the group and then going forward.

    I am not much of a futures better, but I am liking Spain. If I play a future or two, I think I will have them in the semis which would could be over England. I fully expect England to choke once again. I like the Dutch team, but they can be unpredictable. I think Portugal is in for a fight. Not only did they get screwed with the draw, but they have to play in Germany and Hungary. This is a big advantage for Germany and Hungary is better than most think. They also have France last so they could be in a tough spot if they do not get a result in Munich. I will be on Belgium to win their group also. Denmark is getting too much credit.

    Should have a new thread up soon and look forward to getting back into the swing with games everyday!!!
    I totally agree with you on the totals. I took a look back at 2016 as a refresher and there were plenty of games with 2 goals or less early. In fact there were only a tad over 2 goals a game scored for the entire tournament. This is why just about all the totals are shading towards the under, definitely have to pick the spots early.

    I agree Portgual is in for a real fight , but their squad looks really strong. The more I read on the Dutch the more I doubt they can go all the way , missing Virgil as the anchor in the back is going to hurt them. I agree on Hungary they aren't a push over by any means. These guys are on a nice unbeaten streak, and they will feel good about themselves. I remember Hungary making a nice run last tournament. They gave Portgual all they could handle in a 3-3 tie. There is always a dark horse that pops up and goes DEEP. It happens every time and it's one of the factors that make the event so intriguing. Last tournament Wales went to the Semis , who is it gonna be this year, we shall see!

  5. #5
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    The Azzuri down to 8-1 now , never in my entire life have I cheered for the Azzuri. In fact I live in a hugely populated Italian and Portugese community, I am going to have to hit some cafes in the next few weeks, and watch these games with some old Italian guys, sipping espressos.

    OPENING MATCH
    ITALY/TURKEY OVER 2 - 125


    Italy has been pretty efficient defensively, they haven't let in many goals lately. Overall Italy has been looking really good. Offensively, they have netted 2 goals themselves in 8 matches in a row. They just put in 4 against the Czech a week ago. If you go back to 2019, Italy has scored at least 2 goals or more in nearly 80% of the games they have played. Simply put Italy has been playing some beautiful, free flowing, attacking football. I think Turkey can get one here as well. They have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 International contests. There have been plenty of 3 goal games as well in that span against teams like Norway, Netherlands, Russia, Croatia. I think at worst I can get a push here, but looking for a score along the lines of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 for the Azzuri.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    The Azzuri down to 8-1 now , never in my entire life have I cheered for the Azzuri. In fact I live in a hugely populated Italian and Portugese community, I am going to have to hit some cafes in the next few weeks, and watch these games with some old Italian guys, sipping espressos.

    OPENING MATCH
    ITALY/TURKEY OVER 2 - 125


    Italy has been pretty efficient defensively, they haven't let in many goals lately. Overall Italy has been looking really good. Offensively, they have netted 2 goals themselves in 8 matches in a row. They just put in 4 against the Czech a week ago. If you go back to 2019, Italy has scored at least 2 goals or more in nearly 80% of the games they have played. Simply put Italy has been playing some beautiful, free flowing, attacking football. I think Turkey can get one here as well. They have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 International contests. There have been plenty of 3 goal games as well in that span against teams like Norway, Netherlands, Russia, Croatia. I think at worst I can get a push here, but looking for a score along the lines of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 for the Azzuri.

    Hey Crookity - Great to see a lot of Euro talk on the forum. Maybe my favorite sporting event in the world. Was lucky enough to go when it was in Austria and again in France. Funny you mention this game because I’ve been digging into Turkey all day. I loved Italy and I took them at 10-1 a little while ago. They’re playing beautiful. But, you never know with them. Always capable of winning it all or crashing out in disaster. Beware of Turkey and the over. Yeah, is was back in 2019, but they were the stingiest defense in qualifying giving up 3 goals in 10 games. Including 1 goal in 2 games vs France. I think they could be a dark horse. If I could find a way to bet them to reach the semis at a high price I would. I like Ukraine too. But, back to the danger with the overs. Recently it looks like Turkey’s been experimenting with different formations and its produced a lot of goals for and against. Based on what they did to get here and playing in Rome vs Italy, gotta believe they are going to go back to their really defensive 4-1-4-1 defensive formation - they’ve got some great defensive talent, the team is peaking age-wise. They are going to fight hard for a draw. Plus Italy’s a young team and that could be a lot of pressure opening the tourney. They might just come out and roll Turkey, but if they get frustrated early, might be some pressure on them. Just my 2 cents. Good luck to you this tourney!

  7. #7
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    Hey Crookity - Great to see a lot of Euro talk on the forum. Maybe my favorite sporting event in the world. Was lucky enough to go when it was in Austria and again in France. Funny you mention this game because I’ve been digging into Turkey all day. I loved Italy and I took them at 10-1 a little while ago. They’re playing beautiful. But, you never know with them. Always capable of winning it all or crashing out in disaster. Beware of Turkey and the over. Yeah, is was back in 2019, but they were the stingiest defense in qualifying giving up 3 goals in 10 games. Including 1 goal in 2 games vs France. I think they could be a dark horse. If I could find a way to bet them to reach the semis at a high price I would. I like Ukraine too. But, back to the danger with the overs. Recently it looks like Turkey’s been experimenting with different formations and its produced a lot of goals for and against. Based on what they did to get here and playing in Rome vs Italy, gotta believe they are going to go back to their really defensive 4-1-4-1 defensive formation - they’ve got some great defensive talent, the team is peaking age-wise. They are going to fight hard for a draw. Plus Italy’s a young team and that could be a lot of pressure opening the tourney. They might just come out and roll Turkey, but if they get frustrated early, might be some pressure on them. Just my 2 cents. Good luck to you this tourney!
    Love the insight bro, we need more contributors. I don't have too many friends who follow the sport closely , so I come here to interact and talk footy. The madjacks forum is my only outlet when it comes to the sport. Trust me I know this play is very against the grain. The money has been coming in on the under steady for the past week. In fact pretty much every game shades to the under. It wouldn't surprise me for Turkey to get something out of this match. With that said I do hope for the Azzuri to control this with their midfield, and get me a few goals in front of the home crowd in Rome. You and Bason are bang on that it could be tough sledding on the Overs. I am definitely going to have to pick my spots. I have gotten away from sides in club action, but I will be playing them in this tournament. I look forward to more of your contributions this tournament.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    Love the insight bro, we need more contributors. I don't have too many friends who follow the sport closely , so I come here to interact and talk footy. The madjacks forum is my only outlet when it comes to the sport. Trust me I know this play is very against the grain. The money has been coming in on the under steady for the past week. In fact pretty much every game shades to the under. It wouldn't surprise me for Turkey to get something out of this match. With that said I do hope for the Azzuri to control this with their midfield, and get me a few goals in front of the home crowd in Rome. You and Bason are bang on that it could be tough sledding on the Overs. I am definitely going to have to pick my spots. I have gotten away from sides in club action, but I will be playing them in this tournament. I look forward to more of your contributions this tournament.
    Well, since your focused on the overs, I’ve been trying to find value in top goal scorer and was looking for groups with leaky defenses and playing with numbers and doing some quick tally’s. So for what its worth, here’s the teams that conceded the a goal a game or more in qualification:
    Group B Finland 1.0/game
    Group C N Mac 1.6
    Group D Czech 1.4
    Group D Scotland 1.9 😳
    Group E Slovakia 1.4
    Sweden E (surprisingly) and Austria C .9
    Didn’t give me any answers on dark horse top goal scorers but guessing these guys are gonna have to change things up or be prime targets for overs.

  9. #9
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    Well, since your focused on the overs, I’ve been trying to find value in top goal scorer and was looking for groups with leaky defenses and playing with numbers and doing some quick tally’s. So for what its worth, here’s the teams that conceded the a goal a game or more in qualification:
    Group B Finland 1.0/game
    Group C N Mac 1.6
    Group D Czech 1.4
    Group D Scotland 1.9 😳
    Group E Slovakia 1.4
    Sweden E (surprisingly) and Austria C .9
    Didn’t give me any answers on dark horse top goal scorers but guessing these guys are gonna have to change things up or be prime targets for overs.
    Good stuff, I will definitely be looking for a few of these pigs to get slaughtered. It looks like a few of them are squaring off against each other as well. I will be referencing this list for sure, thanks.

  10. #10
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    The Azzuri down to 8-1 now , never in my entire life have I cheered for the Azzuri. In fact I live in a hugely populated Italian and Portugese community, I am going to have to hit some cafes in the next few weeks, and watch these games with some old Italian guys, sipping espressos.

    OPENING MATCH
    ITALY/TURKEY OVER 2 - 125


    Italy has been pretty efficient defensively, they haven't let in many goals lately. Overall Italy has been looking really good. Offensively, they have netted 2 goals themselves in 8 matches in a row. They just put in 4 against the Czech a week ago. If you go back to 2019, Italy has scored at least 2 goals or more in nearly 80% of the games they have played. Simply put Italy has been playing some beautiful, free flowing, attacking football. I think Turkey can get one here as well. They have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 International contests. There have been plenty of 3 goal games as well in that span against teams like Norway, Netherlands, Russia, Croatia. I think at worst I can get a push here, but looking for a score along the lines of 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 for the Azzuri.
    Looks like I'm all alone on the over here ar MJ, but that's ok . Those who follow know i dont base plays off line moves, and try not to read to much into it. With that said interestingly the over got slammed , the 2 line is at -175 now almost tourney time , good luck to all.

  11. #11
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    Looks like I'm all alone on the over here ar MJ, but that's ok . Those who follow know i dont base plays off line moves, and try not to read to much into it. With that said interestingly the over got slammed , the 2 line is at -175 now almost tourney time , good luck to all.
    FORZA AZZURI !!!!!!!! THEY LOOK GOOD AND TURKEY LOOKS LIKE DOG SHIT .

    onto the next one...

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    Looks like I'm all alone on the over here ar MJ, but that's ok . Those who follow know i dont base plays off line moves, and try not to read to much into it. With that said interestingly the over got slammed , the 2 line is at -175 now almost tourney time , good luck to all.
    Congrats, you had the right side on the O/U. Turkey got crushed. Italy looks legit!

  13. #13
    Nice call bud


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  14. #14
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Let's try another one this weekend

    DUTCH /UKRAINE OVER 2, 2.5 -105

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    Nice work to start Crook!!

    I like this Ukraine team, I think they could surprise a lot of people.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  16. #16
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    The Euros are coming up fast boys, this is going to be great. This is one of my all time favorite sporting events, I can vividly recall this tournament going back 25+ years. It should be fun, I am starting to keep an eye on the lines, and I am doing some research. I will start logging a few totals. I will probably tread pretty lightly for the first week or so, but I have a number of matchups that intrigue me.

    BELGIUM/RUSSIA OVER 2 , 2 1/2 - 125

    This is starting to move I will book it in now.
    This was a little closer than I wanted, but I am grateful for Lukaku smashing that 3rd goal at the end. So far so good over here , hopefully some scoring continues in the Netherlands/Ukraine game.

  17. #17
    Registered User tt boy's Avatar
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    nice start to the to tourney Crook

  18. #18
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tt boy View Post
    nice start to the to tourney Crook
    TT what's up buddy thanks ! I feel.good about the game today, the line really moved on that one , glad I played it ahead of time.

  19. #19
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Wow what a battle this game is , the flow is a thing of beauty just need some bounces.

  20. #20
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    Wow what a battle this game is , the flow is a thing of beauty just need some bounces.
    Wow great game another winner , couldn't ask for a better start to the tourny.

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    Keep it up Crook, could be tough sledding the next couple days for overs, but already more than I thought.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  22. #22
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Keep it up Crook, could be tough sledding the next couple days for overs, but already more than I thought.
    Thanks Bason, and I agree it will be tough sledding on the Overs the next day or two. I am interested to see how things play out, as there are several teams playing that were very leaky in qualifying as per the chart FlapJack shared for us above. Using those metrics was profitable in the Macedonia/Austria game as both teams were amongst the worst defenders in qualifying and the game went over. Right now we got the Scots and Czech who are on the chart facing each other, nonetheless I didn't play it, but I am watching closely for possible live buy in.

    I did get out in front of this one for later in the week.




    UKRAINE/MACEDONIA OVER 2, 2.5 -115

  23. #23
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Started off the tourny with the nice sweep of the weekend selections, and hoping to keep it going. So far I got the Macedonia/Ukraine over, and I am adding this now:

    ITALY/SWISS OVER 2, 2.5 +100
    I like the way this sets up, Italy looked real nice in the opening match. The midfield looks strong as hell as expected, and it was wave, after wave of Italian attack. Italy is feeling real good about themselves. They need 2 more wins to match the all time National Team record for consecutive wins at 30! Italy put up 3 goals against Turkey to open things up, and they have now scored 7 goals the last 2 times out. Italy has put up 2 goals or more in 9 consecutive Internationals guys, I see no reason why they are not popping 2 on the Swiss on Thursday? The Swiss looked good in waves in the first half against Wales, with Embolo making powerful runs through the danger area. The Swiss have found the net in 16 of their last 17 Internationals. I think they could get one here, although the Azzuri haven't conceded a goal in forever, but a lot of those clean sheets are against minnows. I am looking for a 2-1, or 3-1 Italy win here. The over 2 currently sits at -140, it is a little rich for me right now. If for some reason this price drops a bit I will add for the security of a push incase this were to go 2-0 or 1-1. You can say I am starting a position, and will add accordingly.
    Last edited by Crookity; 06-14-2021 at 07:51 PM.

  24. #24
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    Started off the tourny with the nice sweep of the weekend selections, and hoping to keep it going. So far I got the Macedonia/Ukraine over, and I am adding this now:

    ITALY/SWISS OVER 2, 2.5 +100
    I like the way this sets up, Italy looked real nice in the opening match. The midfield looks strong as hell as expected, and it was wave, after wave of Italian attack. Italy is feeling real good about themselves. They need 2 more wins to match the all time National Team record for consecutive wins at 30! Italy put up 3 goals against Turkey to open things up, and they have now scored 7 goals the last 2 times out. Italy has put up 2 goals or more in 9 consecutive Internationals guys, I see no reason why they are not popping 2 on the Swiss on Thursday? The Swiss looked good in waves in the first half against Wales, with Embolo making powerful runs through the danger area. The Swiss have found the net in 16 of their last 17 Internationals. I think they could get one here, although the Azzuri haven't conceded a goal in forever, but a lot of those clean sheets are against minnows. I am looking for a 2-1, or 3-1 Italy win here. The over 2 currently sits at -140, it is a little rich for me right now. If for some reason this price drops a bit I will add for the security of a push incase this were to go 2-0 or 1-1. You can say I am starting a position, and will add accordingly.
    I don't think we are going to see the total of 2 move into the -120 range which would make me a buyer, the line is starting to rise. The o/u 2, 2.5 was +110 and now it is just about at -110. A huge wave of Italy money can juice this higher closer to game time , similar to what happened in the first game vs Turkey. As for today, it is Group of Death, and we get to see some elite squads play. These are tough ones to cap from a total perspective especially, as these teams are not going to want to drop any points. I have vested interest in the Portugal game as I nibbled some 8-1 on them to win it all along with the Italian 10-1 play. I will probably wait it out 1 more day, and watch these games for live buy in opportunities. Good luck to everyone, I love the Euros it has been a great first few days.

  25. #25
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Adding...


    TURKEY/WALES OVER 2 -110

    Both squads need a win, a tie does neither any good. I think we get some chances in this one. All we need is 2 to push this bet. I don't think it's alot to ask, and the price is nice.

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    Adding...


    TURKEY/WALES OVER 2 -110

    Both squads need a win, a tie does neither any good. I think we get some chances in this one. All we need is 2 to push this bet. I don't think it's alot to ask, and the price is nice.
    Fucking Bale. How do you do that on a penalty. I'm sure it won't affect the total.

  27. #27
    That PK was insane


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  28. #28
    Registered User Snafu's Avatar
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    solid push
    Motto panukeiku !

  29. #29
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Guys I feel you on that kick WTF was that weak ass shit?!?!? Turkey was hyped by many, and these guys just lack finish. There were soooooo many chances in this game. I was about to come on here, and say we just got our ass robbed, and finally a 2nd goal came in. I feel fortunate to get the push, but this game had the tempo, pace, the chances, in the end we didn't get the last bounce needed. Let's get that Italy game, I got Italia tied to a few long parlays that are very live right now, so I hope they can win and bag a few in the process.

  30. #30
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Wow wow the Italian midfield is a thing of beauty ! The Swiss look toothless , we are gonna need the Azzuri to carry our weight here.

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