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Thread: Euro 2020(1)

  1. #1

    Euro 2020(1)

    Love this tourney. Was lucky enough to go when it was in Austria and again in France. When it comes to actually making money on soccer and not throwing it away, I tend to just follow Bason and The Kid. But, I like to take some long shots at the beginning of tourneys like this.

    I took Italy 3* +1050, 5* France +460, 1* Swiss +8250 a week ago. Trying to really get into potential matchups down the line to see if thereís some long shots that could make a run. And, to me, it looks like the Dutch have a dream draw. 3 group games in Amsterdam and if they top the group, they get a 3rd place team. Could end up with a tough game vs 3rd Place in Group F, but thatís maybe a 20% chance or so. Then, if they win that, they get the winner of 2 2nd place teams - Maybe Denmark, Swiss, Turkey in the Qtrs. Semi would be in London which could be tough vs England, but donít expect them to make it. But, I really donít like this Dutch team. So, Iím going for another team in their path that could hijack their route. So hereís my lottery ticket shots:


    Swiss - already taken
    Ukraine 1* to win +8500
    Turkey 1* to win +6500
    And, wait for it....Hungry 1* +50000. Yes, this is a massive long shot and they lost one of their best players. Still its not like they suck. They are up and coming - just in a ridiculous group. But, Iím not sure anyone should be 500 to 1. Leicester City anyone? Theyíd need to squeeze out a 3rd place position in the group of death, but do get 2 home games in Budapest - which happens to be the only stadium in the tourney that is going to be 100% full. With travel restrictions, Iíd think it will be a true, raucous home game in a tough place to play. Big advantage. Not out of the question they get an upset somewhere. Then, round of 16, should they end up playing Holland, wanna guess the stadium? Yep, back home in Budapest. Then vs a 2nd place team in even further east Baku. Of course thereís little chance they can beat anyone theyíd face in the semis or finals, but at that point, its all about hedging the crap out of Hungry at 500 to 1.

    As far as Player of the Tourney, 2 stuck out to me:
    Pogba 2* +3000
    Ronaldo 2* +1900
    Canít really see why these are so much higher than others on here. Itís going to someone playing in the Finals - so France and Portugal are pretty good places to look. France Pogba >>>> ManU Pogba. If France rolls and MBappe wins the Golden Boot, I could see them rewarding their mid-field leader with the award. Ronaldo is Ronaldo. Writing him off is like writing off Micheal Jordon. If Portugal wins again, man, theyíve got amazing talent all over the field, but if heí banging in goals and leading the team, hard to see him not getting the votes - especially since it could be his last Euros and the way he missed out on the Finals last time.

  2. #2
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=flapjack;4472622]Love this tourney. Was lucky enough to go when it was in Austria and again in France. When it comes to actually making money on soccer and not throwing it away, I tend to just follow Bason and The Kid. But, I like to take some long shots at the beginning of tourneys like this.

    I took Italy 3* +1050, 5* France +460, 1* Swiss +8250 a week ago. Trying to really get into potential matchups down the line to see if thereís some long shots that could make a run. And, to me, it looks like the Dutch have a dream draw. 3 group games in Amsterdam and if they top the group, they get a 3rd place team. Could end up with a tough game vs 3rd Place in Group F, but thatís maybe a 20% chance or so. Then, if they win that, they get the winner of 2 2nd place teams - Maybe Denmark, Swiss, Turkey in the Qtrs. Semi would be in London which could be tough vs England, but donít expect them to make it. But, I really donít like this Dutch team. So, Iím going for another team in their path that could hijack their route. So hereís my lottery ticket shots:


    Swiss - already taken
    Ukraine 1* to win +8500
    Turkey 1* to win +6500
    And, wait for it....Hungry 1* +50000. Yes, this is a massive long shot and they lost one of their best players. Still its not like they suck. They are up and coming - just in a ridiculous group. But, Iím not sure anyone should be 500 to 1. Leicester City anyone? Theyíd need to squeeze out a 3rd place position in the group of death, but do get 2 home games in Budapest - which happens to be the only stadium in the tourney that is going to be 100% full. With travel restrictions, Iíd think it will be a true, raucous home game in a tough place to play. Big advantage. Not out of the question they get an upset somewhere. Then, round of 16, should they end up playing Holland, wanna guess the stadium? Yep, back home in Budapest. Then vs a 2nd place team in even further east Baku. Of course thereís little chance they can beat anyone theyíd face in the semis or finals, but at that point, its all about hedging the crap out of Hungry at 500 to 1.

    As far as Player of the Tourney, 2 stuck out to me:
    Pogba 2* +3000
    Ronaldo 2* +1900
    Canít really see why these are so much higher than others on here. Itís going to someone playing in the Finals - so France and Portugal are pretty good places to look. France Pogba >>>> ManU Pogba. If France rolls and MBappe wins the Golden Boot, I could see them rewarding their mid-field leader with the award. Ronaldo is Ronaldo. Writing him off is like writing off Micheal Jordon. If Portugal wins again, man, theyíve got amazing talent all over the field, but if heí banging in goals and leading the team, hard to see him not getting the votes - especially since it could be his last Euros and the way he missed out on the Finals last

    If Hungary , Ukraine or Swiss for that matter win the Euro you are getting cemented into the Madjacks Mount Rushmore a golden ticket to the Hall of Fame lol ! Than again Greece was I believe 80-1 when they took the crown in 2004, playing basically 0-0 or 1-0 every game and winning penalty shootouts so anything can happen , really! Good luck on the tournament.

  3. #3
    Memphis Depay 1* +1700
    Immobile 1* +1800.

    Terrible odds in the top goal scorer. Only betting for some action really. Lukaku, MBappe or Kane will probably win but odds are terrible. Was hoping for really long odds on Immobile since he doesnít usually perform for Italy like he does for club. But, love this Italy team and if they win it, 18-1 isnít bad for what should be their top scorer. And Depay should be much higher than 17-1, but heís banging in seemingly all of Hollandís goals recently and I think they have the draw of the tourney.

  4. #4
    One last pre-tournament future: Erickson Player of the tourney 1* +6500

  5. #5
    Registered User PittsburghKid's Avatar
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    Greece was 150-1 in 04 just an FYI !


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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    One last pre-tournament future: Erickson Player of the tourney 1* +6500
    This aged well.

  7. #7
    Portugal +1126 2*
    Draw +400 1*

    Ok, Germanyís playing great, but those live odds are a tad crazy. More goals are coming and itís a 1 goal game. These probably wonít win, but value-wise, Iíll bite.

  8. #8
    Germ-Port live O4/Spain -1 5*

  9. #9

    Euro 2020(1)

    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    Germ-Port live O4/Spain -1 5*
    Really nice timing on that over 4!
    Last edited by johnnyb; 06-19-2021 at 12:20 PM. Reason: Another goal lol

  10. #10
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    Good work! I have been hitting the over live the whole game. Germany is dismantling them.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    Good work! I have been hitting the over live the whole game. Germany is dismantling them.
    Kicking myself for hesitating on O5 and O6 and not pulling the trigger.

  12. #12
    What the hell, O7 itís at least +.

  13. #13
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    I do not make a lot of live bets, but it was obvious from the start that Germany was going to score some goals so I just kept on hitting it.
    "You may be a genius, but your not very smart!"

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by BASON View Post
    I do not make a lot of live bets, but it was obvious from the start that Germany was going to score some goals so I just kept on hitting it.
    In Portugalís defense, they have out scored Germany 4-2. Just woulda been nice if they coulda directed all that goal scoring at the German net.

  15. #15
    Hindsightís 20/20, but I think I underestimated having to play 2 straight away games in 2 different countries versus teams with thier back to the wall in the course of 4 days. France and Portugal had their hands full. Poland didnít have an away game vs Slovakia, but they do have to trek across Europe to play a Spain team sitting at home stewing over that draw. They should lay into Poland.

  16. #16
    As I watch the money flow out of my account the past 2 days, my hatred of the English and Spanish national team are only strengthened. France, I give a pass to. Thatís a tough travel schedule. But, if youíre sitting around in London or Sevilla as the opponents come to you and thatís your best?

  17. #17
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    As I watch the money flow out of my account the past 2 days, my hatred of the English and Spanish national team are only strengthened. France, I give a pass to. Thatís a tough travel schedule. But, if youíre sitting around in London or Sevilla as the opponents come to you and thatís your best?
    Absolutely pathetic, the Spanish were always a let down team like the English but atleast they had their golden run and won the euros and world cup. This resembles the Spanish squads of old. England has already been spoken for, they are typical paper tigers. The beauty is that right now it's anyones tournament. I know I been pumping their tires but I like my Azzuri 10-1 play. The only thing is they haven't been tested yet, I want to see how they play against a powerhouse . I see you took Italy as well at the same number so I'm in good company over here lol

  18. #18
    Round of 16. The Turkey and Hungary lottery tickets are lost, but feeling pretty good about some of the others still breathing - I think.

    I think the some of big boys are going to kick it up a gear in the R16 and have some really favorable matchups

    Italy -1 seems almost risk free. So its probably a loser. But put it in anyway - Italy -1 -114.

    And Italy/Holland/Spain ML pay 3-1, so took that.

    And a 3x5 Round Robin: Italy -1.5 +148/Sweden +134/Holland -1 +119/Spain -1 +102/Belgium +148. And a little on it as a parlay.

    I still think Hollands defense and questionable coaching is going to get exposed, but itís not going to be by the Czechs. More one way traffic as they keep getting the right teams to play. I liked Portugal in this tourney until I watched them. WTF happened to that defense? Itís not lack of talent. Belgium rested and with KDB back at +148 yeah, Iíll some of that. Unless CR7 bangs in a hat-trick. Iíd love another early Portugal goal. Iím almost rooting for an early Portugal goal to pound Belgium live at some awesome odds. I like Sweden - same effective defense and organization but that kid up fronts a difference maker. They can actually score now. I feel pretty good about getting 3 winners/pushs at a minimum with nice upside.

  19. #19
    Was really hoping to bet big against this Dutch team. Just thought theyd match up much better against the Czechs.

  20. #20
    Registered User JSom's Avatar
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    Something tells me that Italy and England will play in the final. I don't even know who will be the winner. These teams are very strong. Although today Denmark may well surprise and win contrary to forecasts.

  21. #21
    After some really shitty knock out round betting, its Italy to win +1050 or nothing for me. But, I just canít get over these odds. Italy now +234. Italy pk +108. Too tempting to load up on the better team at those odds. But, this stupid ďPan EuropeanĒ format has been a joke. Englands played 1 game away from Wembley while other teams are traveling all over the place. They would have travelled more if they hosted the damn thing. Now, instead of a super bowl atmosphere with both sides fans attending, its just another England home game with a now capacity crowd and only 1000 Italian fans allowed to travel. I think its going to come down to the reffing a lot. England will try to knock around Italy and break up play like Austria was successful doing. If they canít, its going to be a very rough day for England. Based on the stats I was looking at, this ref is pretty middle of the road as far as showing cards. So, hard to say which way he will lean. He does seem to have a hard on for Verratti. If my book had long shot odds on him seeing a card, I would take that for sure since he picks them up pretty often normally. But, its a final so its probably unlikely he shows it a lot.

    So, Iíll take a couple shots on the game:

    Italy/O1.5 +420
    Over 2 +104
    Sending off Yes +420
    Booking over 3.5 -104 - Varretti is good for 1. England will be fouling a lot.
    Any time goal scorer - odds are always a joke, but just for fun:
    Maguire +1200 - no secret their corners all involve trying to get the ball on his head.
    Bonucci +1800 - just have a feeling.

  22. #22
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    After some really shitty knock out round betting, its Italy to win +1050 or nothing for me. But, I just canít get over these odds. Italy now +234. Italy pk +108. Too tempting to load up on the better team at those odds. But, this stupid ďPan EuropeanĒ format has been a joke. Englands played 1 game away from Wembley while other teams are traveling all over the place. They would have travelled more if they hosted the damn thing. Now, instead of a super bowl atmosphere with both sides fans attending, its just another England home game with a now capacity crowd and only 1000 Italian fans allowed to travel. I think its going to come down to the reffing a lot. England will try to knock around Italy and break up play like Austria was successful doing. If they canít, its going to be a very rough day for England. Based on the stats I was looking at, this ref is pretty middle of the road as far as showing cards. So, hard to say which way he will lean. He does seem to have a hard on for Verratti. If my book had long shot odds on him seeing a card, I would take that for sure since he picks them up pretty often normally. But, its a final so its probably unlikely he shows it a lot.

    So, Iíll take a couple shots on the game:

    Italy/O1.5 +420
    Over 2 +104
    Sending off Yes +420
    Booking over 3.5 -104 - Varretti is good for 1. England will be fouling a lot.
    Any time goal scorer - odds are always a joke, but just for fun:
    Maguire +1200 - no secret their corners all involve trying to get the ball on his head.
    Bonucci +1800 - just have a feeling.
    I know what your saying man , Italy has been cast aside as large dogs, atleast for the 90M portion +240 are you serious lol ?? No respect man no respect the team has won 33 games in a row , conceeded 10 in that time frame , they went 1168 minutes of clean sheet , another all time record! They had some off moments agaibst Spain , but they just clipped down 2 top 6 FIFA world Ranked teams , including the world #1. I know the game is in Wembley , and it's huge advantage to the English , but Italy is not coming scared that for certain. Id be surprised if England gets more than a goal of the Azzuri. Some of the props you like on O1.5 goals and Italy and Over are tempting. I got the 10-1 like you so hopefully that works out for us

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Crookity View Post
    I know what your saying man , Italy has been cast aside as large dogs, atleast for the 90M portion +240 are you serious lol ?? No respect man no respect the team has won 33 games in a row , conceeded 10 in that time frame , they went 1168 minutes of clean sheet , another all time record! They had some off moments agaibst Spain , but they just clipped down 2 top 6 FIFA world Ranked teams , including the world #1. I know the game is in Wembley , and it's huge advantage to the English , but Italy is not coming scared that for certain. Id be surprised if England gets more than a goal of the Azzuri. Some of the props you like on O1.5 goals and Italy and Over are tempting. I got the 10-1 like you so hopefully that works out for us
    Letís finish strong! Forza Italia! Never thought Iíd have a 10-1 team in the final and instead of hedging Iím thinking, Iíll grab some of that pk or +240. Varretti does worry me. Seems to melt down in some big games. I understand you have to start your best player, but man, they were rolling with Locotelli.

    No over 2 call on the final, crook?

  24. #24
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flapjack View Post
    Letís finish strong! Forza Italia! Never thought Iíd have a 10-1 team in the final and instead of hedging Iím thinking, Iíll grab some of that pk or +240. Varretti does worry me. Seems to melt down in some big games. I understand you have to start your best player, but man, they were rolling with Locotelli.

    No over 2 call on the final, crook?
    I know Locotelli has really made a name for himself, I enjoyed him at Sassuolo with Berardi , but now the world knows his name now, good to see. I would expect he comes in for 2nd half. At first I was going to stay away from the total but I want to see where this number goes. Overwhelming majority are thinking under , it's going ++ right now. I want to see where things are in 2 hours I have been killing it with these low totals the 2 is pretty safe. I want to see what price I might be able to get on 1.5,2.

  25. #25
    Registered User Crookity's Avatar
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    BONUCCI!!!!!!!!@!@

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