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  1. #1

    CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2021-2022 NEWS/TRENDS/BEST BETS THRU NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP !

    Saturday’s 6-pack
    Opening week college football spreads:
    — Nebraska (-8.5) @ Illinois
    — Hawai’i @ UCLA (-17)
    — UTEP (-7) @ New Mexico State
    — UConn @ Fresno State (-27)
    — Temple @ Rutgers (-13.5)
    — Boise State @ UCF (-4.5)

    Quote of the Day.
    “If you have a positive attitude and constantly strive to give your best effort, eventually you will overcome your immediate problems and find you are ready for greater challenges.”
    Pat Riley

    Saturday’s quiz
    How many major league teams has Tony LaRussa managed?

    Friday’s quiz
    In the movie Hoosiers, Jimmy Chitwood wore number 15.

    Thursday’s quiz
    Alex Rodriguez started his major league career with Seattle.

    ******************************

    Saturday’s Den: Big 14 football knowledge

    Illinois
    — New coach Bielema was 37-19 SU in Big 14 games at Wisconsin, from 2006-12.
    — Bielema later went 11-29 SU in SEC games at Arkansas.
    — Last nine years, Illinois is 14-25 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Illini lost last two bowls, haven’t won one since 2011, their last winning year.

    Indiana
    — Hoosiers went 14-7 SU last 2 years, after going 36-62 previous eight years.
    — HC Allen is 17-4 ATS if home team is favored, 8-13 if road team is favored.
    — Under Allen, Indiana is 18-6 ATS coming off a win.
    — Indiana lost its last six bowls; their last bowl win was 1991.

    Iowa
    — Last eight years, Iowa is 19-5-1 ATS as road favorites.
    — Last three years, Hawkeyes were +9/+9/+9 in turnovers.
    — Iowa covered 7 of its last 8 non-conference games.
    — Hawkeyes won last three bowls, scoring 34.3 ppg.

    Maryland
    — HC Locksley was 8-43 SU at New Mexico, is 6-17 SU here.
    — Last 6 years, Maryland is 23-41 SU; their last bowl was 2016.
    — Last 5 years, Terps are 5-13 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Terps lost last three bowls; their last bowl win was 2010.

    Michigan
    — Harbaugh is 9-17 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Last five years, Michigan is 4-10 ATS off a loss.
    — Since 2013, Wolverines are 12-22-1 ATS out of conference.
    — Michigan lost its last four bowls, giving up 34.8 ppg.

    Michigan State
    — 2013-15, Spartans were 36-5 SU; since then, they’re 29-29 SU.
    — Last three years, MSU is 2-15 ATS at home, 1-10 as a favorite.
    — Spartans are 2-7-1 ATS in last ten games as an underdog.
    — Over last decade, MSU is 9-2 ATS on neutral fields.

    Minnesota
    — Gophers were 3-4 LY, with two losses in overtime.
    — HC Fleck is 27-15-2 ATS on road, 22-23 at home.
    — Last 7 years, Minnesota is 22-10 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Gophers won their last four bowls, were underdog in 3 of them.

    Nebraska
    — Four straight losing seasons, going 16-28 SU.
    — Last 8 years, Nebraska is 14-25-1 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last 4 years, they’re 2-7 ATS out of conference.
    — Junior QB Martinez has 27 starts; they have 3 starters back on OL.

    Northwestern
    — Under Fitzgerald, Wildcats are 37-17 ATS as road underdogs.
    — New QB Hilinski started 11 games at South Carolina.
    — Last five years, Wildcats are 15-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Northwestern won its last four bowls, scoring 30.3 ppg.

    Ohio State
    — This is first time since 1952 Ohio St doesn’t have QB that has thrown a college pass.
    — HC Day is 14-5 ATS as a favorite.
    — Last 5 years, Buckeyes are 56-7 SU, with +45 turnover ratio.
    — Special teams slipped to #104 LY; previous 5 years, they were #32 or better.

    Penn State
    — Started 0-5 LY, giving up 36 ppg, then won last four games.
    — Last 6 years, Penn State is 3-17 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Nittany Lions have a junior QB with 20 career starts.
    — Franklin went 24-15 SU at Vanderbilt; he’s a good coach.

    Purdue
    — Last three years, Purdue is 1-7 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last three years, Purdue is 7-3 ATS as home underdogs.
    — HC Brohm is 19-10-1 ATS as an underdog.
    — Purdue is 3-2 SU in last 5 bowls; average total 78.

    Rutgers
    — Rutgers hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2014.
    — Last six years, Scarlet Knights are 16-43 SU.
    — HC Schiano is 26-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — 2018-19, Rutgers was minus-27 in turnovers; LY, they were +5.

    Wisconsin
    — Last three years, Badgers are 5-11 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last eight years, Badgers are 20-9 ATS as road favorites.
    — Last two years, Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS coming off a loss.
    — HC Chryst won six of his eight bowl games.

  2. #2
    [B]Thursday’s Den: Pac-12 football knowledge:[/B]

    Arizona:
    — New coach Fisch has been an assistant to both Bill Belichick, Sean McVay.
    — Arizona hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2017.
    — Since 2013, Wildcats are 7-21 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Pete Carroll’s son Brennan is Arizona’s offensive coordinator.

    Arizona State:
    — ASU is 15-13 SU under Herm Edwards, with a +32 turnover ratio.
    — Under Edwards, Sun Devils are 5-10 ATS as a favorite, 9-4 as an underdog.
    — ASU has a QB with 16 career starts; their OL has four starters back.

    California
    — Coach Wilcox is 18-7 ATS as an underdog.
    — Last three years, Cal is 0-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Since 2012. Golden Bears are 19-36 ATS coming off a loss.

    Colorado
    — As a head coach, Dorrell is 23-9-2 ATS at home, 13-15 on road.
    — Last four years, Colorado is 6-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Buffs lost last four bowls, last two by 38-8/55-23 scores.

    Oregon:
    — Since 2016, Ducks are 12-20-1 ATS coming off a win.
    — HC Cristobal is 12-18 ATS as a home favorite, 12-7 as a road favorite.
    — QB Brown started 28 games at Boston College.

    Oregon State

    — Last winning season: they went 7-6 in 2013.
    — HC Smith is 3-9-1 ATS as a home underdog, 11-3 as a road dog.
    — Last two years, 10 of their 22 games were decided by 6 or fewer points.

    USC
    — Trojans were +5 in turnovers LY, after going -10/-10 previous two years.
    — Last four years, USC is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Since 2012, they’re 4-12 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Allowed 37.4 ppg in last five bowls, going 2-3 (wins were 45-42/52-49).

    Stanford
    — Since 2016, Stanford is 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, 8-4-1 as road faves.
    — Cardinal started 0-2 LY, won their last four games by total of 10 points.
    — Stanford’s last three bowl games were decided by total of 5 points (2-1)

    UCLA
    — Since 2015, UCLA is 8-16 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Bruins are 4-16-1 ATS in last 21 non-conference games.
    — UCLA’s last bowl was in 2017; in their last three bowls, they allowed 35-37-35 points.

    Utah:
    — Last four years, Utah is 14-5 ATS as home favorites.
    — Utes are 23-9-1 ATS in last 33 games as a favorite.
    — Last three years, Utah is 2-5-1 ATS out of conference.
    — HC Whittingham is 11-3 SU in bowls, but lost his last two.

    Washington:
    — Last five years, Washington is 43-15 SU.
    — Last three years, Huskies are 6-11 ATS at home.
    — Since 2013, Washington is 1-6 ATS as a home underdog.

    Washington State
    — In 2019; Wazzu blew a 49-17 lead to UCLA, losing 67-63; they were 3-0 coming into that game, are 4-10 since that day.
    — Last two years, Coogs are 2-6 ATS as an underdog.
    — Wazzu is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowls.
    — QB Jarrett Guarantano started 30 games at Tennessee.

  3. #3
    Saturday’s Den: SEC football knowledge

    Alabama:
    — Crimson Tide hasn’t been underdog in a game since 2015
    — Last six years, covering 85 games, Alabama is +68 in turnovers.
    — Alabama is 54-35-1 ATS in last 90 SEC games, 23-25-1 in last 49 non-league tilts.

    Arkansas
    — Last six years, Arkansas is 8-12 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Since 2012, Razorbacks are 13-24 ATS in game coming off a win.
    — Arkansas is 11-35 SU last four years; their last bowl was 2016.

    Auburn
    — Since 2014, Auburn is 19-33-1 ATS in game coming off a SU win.
    — Since 2015, Tigers are 9-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Auburn lost four of last five bowls, giving up 31+ points in all four losses.

    Florida
    — Dan Mullen is 32-22-1 ATS as a home favorite, 7-3 SU in bowls
    — At Florida, Mullen is 15-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Gators have a freshman QB Jalen Kitna, son of former NFL QB Jon Kitna.

    Georgia
    — Last four years, Dawgs are 44-9 SU; they won 4 of last 6 bowls.
    — Last ten years, Georgia is 23-14 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Last four years, Dawgs are 26-16 ATS in game coming off a win.

    Kentucky
    — Favorites are 27-15-2 ATS in Kentucky home games in the Stoops era.
    — Wildcats are 15-8 in last 23 games as a home favorite, 7-12-2 as a home dog.
    — Since 2012, Kentucky is 19-31-3 ATS in game coming off a loss.

    LSU
    — Under Orgeron, LSU is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Last 10 years, LSU is 17-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
    — LSU won its last three bowls, scoring 40-63-42 points.

    Ole Miss
    — Lane Kiffin is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog, 13-5-1 as a road dog.
    — Last four years, Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS as a home underdog.
    — Rebels won 4 of last 5 bowls (favorites 4-1 ATS)

    Mississippi State
    — Mike Leach is 90-72 ATS in league games, 31-38-2 out of conference.
    — Underdogs covered Miss State’s last five bowls.
    — Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in last 11 home games.

    Missouri
    — Last three years, Mizzou is 9-5 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Tigers have 88 returning starts on the offensive line; that’s good.
    — Since 2015, Mizzou is 5-11 ATS as a road underdog.

    South Carolina
    — Last three years, Gamecocks are 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
    — Carolina has 4 starters back (84 starts) on the offensive line.
    — Gamecocks have only 3 scholarship QB’s on the roster.

    Tennessee
    — Vols are 12-22 ATS in last 34 home games, since 2017, they’re 5-10 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last 10 years, Tennessee is 19-34-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
    — Good news; Vols won last four bowls; they have QB’s transferring in from Va Tech/Michigan.

    Texas A&M
    — Last three years, Aggies are 6-0 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Jimbo Fisher is 8-2 SU in bowls, 33-18 ATS in non-conference games.
    — Aggies covered 14 of last 21 games coming off a SU win.

    Vanderbilt
    — Last four years, Vandy is 3-12 ATS as a home underdog.
    — Vandy gave up 41-45 points in last two bowls; their last bowl win was 2013.
    — The new coach was a walk-on FB at Vandy; his last job was DC at Notre Dame. Both the coordinators come to Vandy from NFL jobs.

  4. #4
    College football coaching changes for 2021:

    Arizona

    — First-time head coach Jedd Fisch is a longtime offensive coordinator.
    — Arizona hired alums Ricky Hunley, Chuck Cecil as assistant coaches/defense.
    — Wildcats went 0-5 LY, losing 70-7 to rival Arizona State; they gave up 39.8 ppg. .

    Arkansas State
    — Butch Jones went 50-27 at Central Michigan/Cincinnati, but went 14-24 in SEC games while at Tennessee. After three years working for Nick Saban, Jones is a head coach again.
    — Previous coach bolted to Utah State, after Red Wolves had first losing season since 2010.
    — ASU threw ball for 384.4 yards/game LY, #2 in country.

    Auburn
    — Previous coach Malzahn went 68-35 at Auburn, 39-27 in SEC, got told to take a hike.
    — When you go 39-27 in SEC games and still get fired, expectations are high.
    — Bryan Harsin comes from Boise State, where he was 69-19, 45-8 in Mountain West.
    — Auburn opponents converted 50.3% of their 3rd down plays LY. Not good.

    Boise State
    — First-time head coach Andy Avalos was defensive coordinator at Oregon.
    — Avalos is a Boise alum, like every Boise HC since 1998.
    — Last four years, Boise is 27-2 in Mountain West
    — Last three years, Broncos are only 7-6 outside Mountain West.

    Buffalo
    — Previous HC went 20-10 last three years, won two bowls, bolted to Kansas.
    — First-time HC is 35 years old, was Dallas Cowboys’ cornerbacks’ coach LY
    — Buffalo went 6-1 LY, scored 43.4 ppg, lost MAC title game, but won bowl.

    Central Florida
    — Previous coach bolted to Tennessee; UCF hired former Auburn coach Malzahn.
    — Malzahn was 39-27 in SEC games at Auburn, but coaching Auburn during the Saban era at Alabama hasn’t been good for job security.
    — Knights scored 42.2 ppg LY but went 6-4; the defense needs work.
    — QB Gabriel has thrown for 7,223 yards in two seasons.

    Illinois
    — Illini hasn’t had a winning season since 2011.
    — Bielema was 68-24 at Wisconsin, but was 11-29 in SEC games at Arkansas.
    — QB Peters is 6th-year college player; he started here last two years. He figures to hand off a lot this season; Bielema prefers to run the ball a lot.

    Kansas
    — Leipold won six D-3 national titles, went 24-10 his last three years at Buffalo.
    — Leipold was hired the day before Kansas’ spring game, which was awkward.
    — Jayhawks haven’t been to a bowl game since 2008.
    — Kansas will try to run ball well, to keep their defense off the field.

    UL-Monroe
    — 64-year old HC Terry Bowden spent last two years as a Clemson assistant.
    — Former Arizona/Michigan HC Rich Rodriguez is the new OC- his son is the QB.
    — Nine of their 10 losses LY were by double digits; this is a total rebuild.

    Marshall
    — Previous coach was 85-54 but got fired; the governor of West Virginia didn’t like him.
    — When you go 55-30 in conference games and still get fired, expectations are high.
    — New coach Huff has been NFL/college assistant for 16 years, last two at Alabama.
    — Huff kept the same offensive coordinator, has 9 starters back on offense.

    South Alabama
    — New HC Wommack was an assistant at Indiana during their turnaround.
    — QB Jake Bentley has 8,409 passing yards, playing for South Carolina/Utah.
    — Major Applewhite is the new OC; they’ll throw more vertical passes.
    — Jaguars haven’t been to a bowl since 2016.

    South Carolina
    — New HC Beamer is son of former Va Tech coach Frank Beamer.
    — Gamecocks went 2-8 LY, giving up 41+ points in five of last six games.
    — South Carolina has only 9 starters back; 5 on offense, 4 on defense.
    — No returning WR had more than 11 catches last season.

    Southern Mississippi
    — Golden Eagles had three different head coaches, just last year.
    — New HC Hall was OC at Tulane; he’ll be his own OC here.
    — RB Frank Gore Jr ran for 708 yards LY; his dad is still active in the NFL.
    — Southern Miss has 10 starters back on offense.

    Tennessee
    — New coach Heupel comes from UCF, with new AD White.
    — NCAA is investigating, which usually screws up recruiting for a while.
    — Tennessee hasn’t been to a bowl since 2016- last year was their worst record in 97 years.
    — Heupel is an offensive guru, but this turnaround will take a while.

    Texas
    — Tom Herman went 32-18 in four years, 22-13 in Big X games, got the ax anyway.
    — Rival Oklahoma has won six consecutive Big X titles; Texas boosters don’t like Oklahoma.
    — Longhorns were 7-3 LY, will be breaking in a new QB this year.
    — New coach Sarkisian was fired at USC for showing up drunk, but he knows Nick Saban, so he gets another head coaching job.

    Utah State
    — New HC Anderson led Arkansas State to 6 bowls in 7 years.
    — Utah State has regressed since scoring 47.5 ppg in 2018.
    — Aggies went 1-5 LY, scoring 10.4 ppg in the losses.
    — Utah State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.

    Vanderbilt
    — New coach Clark Lee is a Vanderbilt alum.
    — Commodores get three guys on OL back who opted out of last year.
    — Vandy allowed 38+ points in seven of nine games LY.
    — QB Seals completed 64.6% of his passes LY, so they’re good there.

  5. #5
    Got my first college football magazine of the summer; here are things I learned from reading it:
    Over last five years, these teams have the worst record against the spread:

    — Bowling Green 29.2% ATS
    — Akron 30.2% ATS
    — Texas-El Paso 31.4%
    — Arizona 32.0%
    — Tennessee 35.7%

    These teams have the best record against the spread:
    — LSU 38-20-1, 65.3% ATS
    — Wyoming/Eastern Michigan, both at 64.8%
    — Buffalo, 63.9%- their coach moved on to Kansas.
    — Utah, 63.6%

    Last year was first time the Big X didn’t have have any offensive skill players drafted in the first round by the NFL.

    Since 1985, Arizona Wildcats have had one QB drafted, Nick Foles in 3rd round, 2012.

    Last year was first time in 80 years Michigan State didn’t have any players drafted.

    Bryan Harsin is the new coach at Auburn, moving in from Boise State, where he went 69-19; his defensive coordinator is Derek Mason, formerly head coach at Vanderbilt.

    There are 41 bowl games on this year’s docket; 43 were schedule last year, only 25 were played.

    College football “free agency” is now a thing; here are winners/losers for this year:

    Winners— Oklahoma, Florida State, Miami
    Losers— Nebraska, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

    Here is how Nick Saban’s teams have done the year after winning a national title:
    2004, LSU— 9-3, lost bowl game to Iowa
    2010, Alabama— 10-3, beat Michigan State in bowl
    2012, Alabama— 12-1, won national title
    2013, Alabama— 11-2, lost bowl to Oklahoma
    2016, Alabama— 14-1, lost national title game to Clemson
    2018, Alabama— 14-1, lost national title game to Clemson
    2021, Alabama— ??????

    College football coaches on the hot seat:
    — Jim Harbaugh, Michigan— He’s signed thru 2025.
    — Clay Helton, USC— Finished in top 25 three of six years.
    — Jeff Brohm, Purdue— 8-16 in his last 24 games.
    — Dino Babers, Syracuse— 6-17 last two years, after a 10-win 2018.
    — Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech— 19-18 last three years, not good enough.

    Top 5 quarterback transfers:
    — McKenzie Milton, UCF to Florida State
    — Jack Coan, Wisconsin to Notre Dame
    — Charlie Brewer, Baylor to Arizona
    — Alan Bowman, Texas Tech to Michigan
    — Tyler Shough, Oregon to Texas Tech

    Motto for modern college QB’s: If I ain’t starting, then I’ll be departing.

    They tweaked the college overtime rules; teams have to go for 2 points after TD’s starting in the 2nd overtime. If a game gets to three OT’s, they just run alternate 2-point plays until someone wins. Thats a factor if the spread is between 2-8 points.

  6. #6
    Mountain West football knowledge:

    Air Force

    — Five new offensive linemen and a new QB; lot of questions on offense.
    — Falcons have a new special teams coach; last guy was there 10 years.
    — 3 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.

    Boise State
    — LY’s coach bolted to Auburn; the new coach was a defensive coordinator.
    — Boise was 115th in country LY in rushing yardage; no bueno.
    — 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.

    Colorado State
    — Rams played only four games LY; they want to run the ball more.
    — State had five punts/kicks returned for TD’s last season; not good.
    — 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.

    Fresno State
    — Bulldogs scored 30+ ppg, for third year in a row.
    — Fresno gave up 212 rushing yards, 30 points/game LY.
    — 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.

    Hawai’i
    — Coach Graham’s son is the QB this season.
    — Their kicker was only 2-7 on FG’s of 40+ yards LY.
    — 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.

    Nevada
    — QB Strong threw 27 TD passes, only four INT’s last year.
    — Wolf Pack brought in three D-I transfers for their secondary.
    — 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.

    UNLV
    — Rebels recruited well last two years, also brought in some transfers.
    — 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — When your season win total is 1.5 wins, expectations aren’t high.

    New Mexico
    — New QB Wilson started 25 games for Kentucky; he’s pretty good.
    — Lobos couldn’t play at home LY, so getting back home should be fun.
    — 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.

    San Diego State
    — Aztecs threw only six TD passes LY, were 115th in passing yardage.
    — 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — San Diego State is temporarily playing home games 115 miles from campus.

    San Jose State
    — Spartans came out of nowhere to win league title LY, but lost their bowl game.
    — San Jose’s QB Starkel will be protected by an OL with 91 returning starts.
    — 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.

    Utah State
    — New coach Anderson’s Arkansas State team threw for 364.4 ypg LY.
    — Aggies gave up 34+ points in five of six games LY.
    — 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.

    Wyoming
    — Cowboys completed less than half their passes the last three years.
    — Wyoming returns its top 10 tacklers from last season.
    — 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.

  7. #7
    Here is some knowledge on Big X college football:

    Baylor

    — Baylor’s 4-year starting QB bolted Waco, will play at Utah.
    — Maybe he left because he was sacked 31 times in nine games LY.
    — Baylor has 10 starters back on defense.
    — Bears ranked 123rd in rushing LY, 100th in scoring.

    Iowa State
    — Haven’t won a league title since 1912; they lost Big X title game 27-21 LY.
    — QB Purdy is back for his 4th year as the Cyclones’ QB.
    — Iowa State returns 26 players who’ve started 6+ games in their career/
    — How has a big $$$ money school/NFL not hired Matt Campbell away from Ames?

    Kansas
    — Lance Leipold is their sixth coach since 2009; he was 37-33 at Buffalo.
    — Leipold’s Buffalo team ranked #2 in country in rushing LY; Kansas was 116th.
    — Leipold was hired the day before the Jayhawks’ spring game; not ideal.
    — Anyone else wondering why they fired Mark Mangino 10 years ago?

    K-State
    — Wildcats have only 3 starters back on defense.
    — K-State lost their last five games LY, giving up 40.6 ppg.
    — Wildcats added five players via the transfer portal.
    — Freshman QB TJ Rubley is the son of a former NFL QB.

    Oklahoma
    — 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
    — They’ve won Big X six years in a row.
    — Scored 43 ppg but lost twice (38-35/37-30)
    — Sooners dropped 9 TD passes LY; the receivers need to be better.

    Oklahoma State
    — Only five starters are back on offense, but QB Sanders is a 3rd-year starter.
    — Over last 11 seasons, OSU is 101-40, one of 10 programs with 100+ wins since 2010.
    — Cowboys’ punter is Tom Hutton, a 31-year old Australian.
    — Cowboys have never played in Big X title game.

    TCU
    — Gary Patterson has been head coach at TCU for 21 years.
    — Junior QB Duggan has already started 19 college games.
    — Horned Frogs are thin at LB and safety.
    — TCU won five of last six games LY, after a 1-3 start.

    Texas
    — Longhorns scored 42.7 ppg LY, finished 7-3; the coach got fired after going 32-18.
    — There will be a QB competition in summer camp.
    — Texas has only 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
    — Steve Sarkisian is the new coach; six years ago; he got fired as head coach at USC for showing up drunk to practice. If you work for Nick Saban, people forget things about you.

    Texas Tech
    — Tech is 8-14 since Matt Wells replaced Kliff Kingsbury as coach.
    — Red Raiders gave up 36.7 ppg last year.
    — Tech hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2017.
    — One of Tech’s QBs is Tyler Shough, who was Oregon’s starting QB LY.

    West Virginia
    — Last time they won a league title was 2011; they won the Big East back then.
    — Mountaineers have only 5 starters back on defense.
    — WVU is 11-11 in two years since Dana Holgorsen bolted for Houston.
    — Mountaineers’ shortest road trip in Big X is Iowa State, 872 miles away.

  8. #8
    — A little Pac-12 football knowledge:

    Arizona
    - New coach Jedd Fisch was an offensive coordinator in the NFL; X’s and O’s won’t be a problem, but how will he recruit? Losing 70-7 to Arizona State last year make this year’s game with the Sun Devils more interesting.

    Arizona State- 9 starters back on offense, 11 on defense; they were +8 in turnovers LY, in only four games. Sun Devils have a 3rd-year starting QB, unusual in this day and age. Expectations are high in Tempe; ASU lost 16 of its last 19 games against USC- they play Trojans November 8.

    California-
    9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense; their two losses last year were by total of five points. Cal ranked outside top 100 nationally LY in scoring, rushing, passing- their QB has 23 career starts, most of anyone in the Pac-12.

    Colorado- 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense; is there a hangover after you lose your bowl game 55-23, the way Colorado did last year? They’re not sure who the QB will be; Colorado was #23 in country in rushing LY, but they allowed 32+ points in four of six games.

    Oregon- 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense; lot of returning starters all over the Pac-12 this fall. Ducks will have a Boston College transfer (28 starts) or a freshman at QB, which could be a problem, but otherwise they have quality depth all over the field.

    Oregon State- 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense; notice a trend here? Beavers scored 31.2 ppg two years ago, 28.9 last year; coach Jonathan Smith knows his offense. Problem is, they gave up 65 points in their two wins LY. The defense needs some work.

    USC- 8 starters back on both sides of the ball; QB Kedon Slovis had a pretty good OC in high school in Phoenix- NFL Hall of Famer Kurt Warner. Trojans were 5-1 LY, with three wins by 5 or fewer points; coach Clay Helton kept his job, but fired his 14th assistant over the last five years- they also fired the strength coach.

    Stanford- Cardinal started season 0-2, then won their last four games, by total of 10 points. Stanford was 93rd running the ball, 112th in rushing defense, numbers that need to improve. The QB situation is up in the air for this fall, rarely a good thing.

    UCLA- 9 starters back on both sides of the ball, as Chip Kelly fights to show that his success at Oregon wasn’t a fluke. Bruins were 3-4 last year; they scored 42-35-38-47 points in the losses. UCLA finished 114th in country in pass defense LY, a bad thing if you’re in the PAC-12.

    Utah- Because QB’s transfer every 90 minutes or so, Utes have Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer on their roster now. Brewer threw for 9,700 yards in 44 games at Baylor; is Utah a better place to play than Waco? Utes are trying for third Pac-12 South title in last four years.

    Washington- Huskies have 11 consecutive winning seasons, but they finished in top 25 in only four of those years. Washington only played four games LY, so their returning starting QB isn’t as experienced as it seems. A September 11 game at Michigan will be interesting.

    Washington State- Coogs hired an assistant coach in charge of poaching transfers from other schools, probably a wave of the future. One of their transfers this year in QB Jarrett Guarantano from Tennessee; there weren’t a lot of people in Knoxville who were upset when he left. Wazzu has 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.

  9. #9
    — Started my college football research this week; last couple of football seasons have been weird for me, with the pandemic last year making it unusual for everyone, after my retina detached in October 2019, which screwed up the rest of that season for me.

    I’ll be posting some notes on college football from now until Labor Day; we start today with some stuff from the SEC. I’m told they really like college football in the south.

    — LSU went 5-5 LY, despite a +9 turnover ratio. They overhauled their coaching staff over the winter. Problem is, Joe Burrow lives in Cincinnati now. Ed Orgeron is a way better recruiter than he is a tactician; his new coordinators will need to be sharp guys.

    — Kentucky had a +10 turnover ratio; they went 4-6 in the regular season, but somehow made it to a bowl game, where they beat NC State 23-21.

    — Alabama also had a +10 turnover ratio; they won the national championship. Crimson Tide has only three starters back on offense this year.

    Four new head coaches in the SEC this year:
    Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

    — Bad news for Ole Miss: they only have four starters back on defense.
    — Good news for Ole Miss: their defense sucked LY; it’ll be better with new starters.

    As the better college football magazines come out later this month, I’ll post better info, but we’re starting slow, which is fine, since we have a lot of time until the season starts.

    One quick Pac-12 note; Stanford started last year 0-2, then won its last four games, by a total of 10 points:
    — won 24-23 @ California
    — won 31-26 @ Washington
    — won 27-24 @ Oregon State
    — won 48-47 @ UCLA, in OT

    They lost their only home game LY, 35-32 to Colorado.

  10. #10
    Mountain West Knowledge:

    Air Force:
    — HC Calhoun is 44-52-1 ATS as favorite, 34-26-2 as underdog.
    — Last four years, Air Force is 7-3-1 ATS as road underdog.
    — Since 2014, Falcons are 21-8-1 ATS out of conference.
    — Since 2013, Air Force is 13-29-1 ATS coming off a loss.

    Boise State:
    — Last 3 years, Boise is 16-8 ATS in conference games.
    — Over last decade, Broncos are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.
    — Last five years, Boise is 3-6 ATS coming off a loss.
    — 2017-18, Boise was +24 in turnovers; last two years, they were minus-4.

    Colorado State:
    — Rams’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win, 2013.
    — Rams haven’t been better than 7-6 since McElwain left after 2014 season.
    — HC Addazio is 38-25-2 ATS as an underdog.
    — State is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.

    Fresno State:
    — 2017-18, Fresno was 22-6; last two years, they were 7-11.
    — Since 2013, Bulldogs are 13-7-3 ATS as road favorites.
    — Last four years, Bulldogs are +24 in turnovers.
    — QB Haener transferred to Fresno from Washington.

    Hawai’i:
    — Todd Graham went 5-4 in his first year here LY, won a bowl.
    — Since 2014, Rainbows are 6-20-1 ATS as home favorites.
    — Over last decade, Hawaii is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Underdogs covered their last five bowl games.

    Nevada:
    — Under Norvell, Nevada is 15-7 ATS at home, 8-12 on road.
    — Wolf Pack won 3 of last 4 bowls; they weren’t favored in any of them.
    — Last five years, Nevada is 8-12 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Last four years, Wolf Pack is 19-13 ATS in conference tilts.

    UNLV:
    — Last ten years, UNLV is 33-84 SU- they were 0-6 LY.
    — Rebels’ last bowl was 2013; their last bowl win, 2000.
    — Last five years, UNLV is 5-10 ATS as a home favorite.
    — This year’s over/under win total is 1.5; not lot of optimism there.

    New Mexico:
    — Last four years, Lobos are minus-31 in turnovers (10-33).
    — Last six years, New Mexico is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Lobos’ last bowl outside of New Mexico was in 2004.
    — Veteran HC Rocky Long is in his 2nd year as Lobos’ DC.

    San Diego State:
    — They’re playing home games 113 miles from their campus.
    — Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
    — Last six years, San Diego State is +61 in turnovers.
    — 65 returning starts on OL and a new QB; they’ll run ball more this year.

    San Jose State:
    — Spartans went 7-1 LY; previous six years, they were 21-53.
    — Under Brennan, San Jose is 27-17-1 ATS.
    — In 2017, Spartans were minus-26 in turnovers; since then, they’re +13.
    — QB Starkel played previously at Texas A&M/Arkansas.

    Utah State:
    — New HC Anderson made 6 bowls (2-4) in 7 years at Arkansas State.
    — Since 2013, Aggies are 3-10 ATS as a home underdog.
    — Utah State lost 3 of last 4 bowls; they were favored in all four.
    — Junior QB Bonner (15 starts) transferred to Utah State from Arkansas State.

    Wyoming:
    — Last five years, Wyoming is 10-4 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last three years, Cowboys are 3-6 ATS as road underdogs.
    — Wyoming won its last two bowls, covered four of last five.
    — Cowboys have 21 of 22 starters back this season.

  11. #11
    Baylor:
    — From 2013-15, they were 32-7; since then, they’re 28-33.
    — Their 4-year starting QB bolted to Utah.
    — LY was Aranda’s first year as a HC; he went 2-7.
    — Underdogs covered 4 of their last five bowls (3-2 SU)

    Iowa State
    — HC Campbell is 29-13-2 ATS as an underdog, 30-29-2 as a favorite.
    — Last three years, Cyclones are 6-10 ATS as home favorites.
    — Last six years, Iowa State is 22-10-1 ATS off a loss.
    — Returning QB has 33 starts; offensive line has 93 returning starts.

    Kansas
    — Last 10 years, Jayhawks are 18-99 SU. 18 wins. 99 losses.
    — New coach Leipold won six D-III national titles, was 37-33 at Buffalo.
    — Since 2012, Kansas is 4-12 ATS as home favorites, 0-0 as road favorites.
    — Last 10 years, Jayhawks are 40-56-3 ATS as underdogs, 20-32-2 on road.

    Kansas State
    — Since 2016, K-State is 24-9 ATS as an underdog.
    — Since 2015, K-State is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite.
    — In 2016-17, Wildcats went 17-9 SU, were +23 in turnovers.
    — Last three years, Wildcats are 17-18 SU (even in turnovers)
    — K-State has a senior QB (30 starts), all 5 starters back on OL.

    Oklahoma
    — Last 6 years, Sooners are 67-12 SU; their turnover ration last 5 years is even.
    — Riley is 9-5 ATS in non-conference games.
    — Sooners lost 3 of last 4 bowl games, giving up 45.5 ppg.
    — Last year’s #2 QB bolted to SMU.

    Oklahoma State

    — Cowboys have played in a bowl each of last 15 years.
    — Coach Gundy is 71-48-5 ATS as a favorite.
    — OSU won four of last five bowls, covering all five games.
    — Oklahoma State covered 16 of last 18 non-conference games.

    Texas
    — Sarkisian is Texas’ 4th HC in last nine years.
    — Last four years, Longhorns were +31 in turnovers.
    — Last four years, Texas is 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Last five years, Longhorns are 12-5 ATS out of conference.

    TCU
    — Last 5 years, Horned Frogs are 6-11-1 ATS as home favorites.
    — In 2014, TCU was +18 in turnovers; in 75 games since then, they’re minus-8.
    — Since 2013, TCU is 14-21 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Frogs won 3 of last 4 bowls, winning by 2-3-6(OT) points.

    Texas Tech

    — Last bowl game was 2017; last bowl win, 2013.
    — HC Wells is 20-12-1 ATS as home favorite, 11-18 as road underdog.
    — Since 2014, Red Raiders are 2-6 ATS as road favorite.
    — New OC is Sonny Cumbie; he spent last 7 years at TCU.

    West Virginia

    — HC Brown is 14-19-1 ATS at home, 22-12 ATS on road.
    — WVU is 0-5 ATS in last 5 bowls (2-3 SU, wins by 1-3 points)
    — Since 2012, Mountaineers are 12-19 ATS out of conference.
    — Last 2 years, WVU is 11-11 SU; previous 8 years, they were 61-39.

  12. #12
    ACC FOOTBALL KNOWLEDGE:

    Boston College:
    — BC is 24-9-1 ATS in last 34 games as an underdog.
    — Last four years, Eagles are 9-2-1 ATS as home underdogs.
    — Last four years, BC is 24-9-1 ATS in ACC games.
    — Eagles lost three of last four bowls (beat Maryland 36-30 in ’16).

    Clemson
    — Since 2012, Clemson is 111-14 SU.
    — Offensive coordinator is in 6th year there; DC is in his 9th year.
    — Tigers lost last two bowl games, 42-25/49-28.
    — Clemson is 27-17-1 ATS in last 45 games as a favorite.

    Duke
    — Last 2 years, Blue Devils are 7-16 SU, with minus-30 turnover ratio.
    — Under Cutcliffe, Duke is 8-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Blue Devils scored 43 ppg in last five bowls, winning last three.
    — Last three years, Duke is 4-9 ATS coming off a win.

    Florida State
    — Last three years, Seminoles are 14-20 SU.
    — This is first time in five years they’ve had same OC two years in row.
    — FSU covered once in its last ten non-conference games.
    — Since 2016, Seminoles are 10-15 ATS as home favorites.

    Georgia Tech
    — Last 2 years, Tech was 6-16 SU, transitioning from option to spread attack.
    — HC Collins is 3-8-1 ATS as a home favorite, 4-1-1 as road favorite.
    — Last three years, Yellow Jackets are 5-12-1 ATS at home.
    — Last three years, Tech is 4-9 ATS coming off a win.

    Louisville
    — Last three years, Louisville is 14-22 SU, with minus-25 turnover ratio
    — Last three years, Cardinals are 2-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
    — Last four years, Louisville is 6-14 ATS coming off a win.
    — As head coach, Satterfield is 31-24-1 ATS when favored, 9-14-3 as a dog.

    Miami
    — As head coach, Diaz is 6-9 ATS when favored, 4-1 as an underdog.
    — Last four years, Miami is 12-17 ATS coming off a win.
    — Miami lost its last four bowls, scoring only 15.3 ppg.
    — From 2015-17, Hurricanes were +34 in turnovers; last three years, +6.

    North Carolina
    — Tar Heels are 15-10 last two years, after going 5-18 in 2017-18.
    — Last three years, Carolina is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
    — UNC lost four of last five bowl games, giving up 33.6 ppg.
    — QB has 25 career starts, offensive line has 116 career starts.

    NC State
    — Under Doeren, State is 14-23-2 ATS as an underdog.
    — Last three years, Wolfpack is 8-13 ATS coming off a win.
    — Last three years, State is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Favorites covered four of their last five bowls.

    Pittsburgh

    — Last six years, Pitt is 8-15-2 ATS as home favorite, 22-11 ATS on road.
    — Last four years, Panthers are 14-9 ATS off a loss.
    — Pitt lost four of last five bowls (underdogs 4-1 ATS)
    — Pitt has a senior QB with 36 career starts.

    Syracuse

    — Syracuse was outgained by 199 yards/game last year.
    — Orange OL has 120 career starts returning.
    — Syracuse won its last four bowls; last loss was in 2004.
    — Syracuse has played in only one bowl since 2013.

    Virginia
    — Last years, Cavaliers are 13-6 ATS at home.
    — Virginia is 8-3 ATS in last 11 non-conference games.
    — Cavaliers lost four of last five bowls, were underdog in all five.
    — Virginia’s OL has 132 returning starts this season.

    Virginia Tech
    — Last year was first time in 28 years Hokies didn’t go to a bowl.
    — Last three years, Virginia Tech is only 19-18 SU.
    — Last five years, Hokies are 5-12 ATS as home favorites.
    — Tech lost its last three bowls, giving up 34 ppg.

    Wake Forest
    — Last 5 years, Wake is 3-2 in bowls; first time ever they played in 5 straight bowls.
    — Since 2015, Deacons are 2-6 ATS as road favorites, 15-7 as road dogs.
    — Over their last 22 games, Wake Forest is +18 in turnovers.
    — Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense; their QB has 19 career starts.

  13. #13
    Notes on Big 14 football teams:

    Illinois

    — Former Wisconsin/Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is new HC.
    — 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
    — Illinois’ last winning season was in 2011.

    Indiana
    — Went 6-2 LY, gave the coach a raise to $4.9M a year.
    — Last two years, Hoosiers are 15-5 against the spread.
    — 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.

    Iowa
    — Lost first two games 24-20/21-20 LY, then won last six games.
    — Hawkeyes will have 3 new starters on OL this fall.
    — 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.

    Maryland

    — Locksley is 8-43 as a head coach, 6-17 at Maryland.
    — 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Former Florida HC Ron Zook will coach special teams.

    Michigan
    — Gave up 34.5 ppg LY, fired the DC.
    — Wolverines will have another new starting QB this year.
    — 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.

    Michigan State
    — Spartans brought in 20 transfers this season.
    — QB Anthony Russo started 26 games at Temple.
    — 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.

    Minnesota
    — 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Gave up 207.1 rushing yards/game LY (#102)
    — Gophers poached kicker from Kent State to help their special teams.

    Nebraska

    — Went 3-5 LY, with a minus-11 turnover ratio.

    — Cornhuskers have five 6th-year seniors on their defense.
    — 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.

    Northwestern
    — Played in Big 14 title game LY, beat Auburn in their bowl.
    — only 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense this year.
    — Lost their QB and top four WR’s from last season.

    Ohio State
    — Ryan Day is 23-2 SU coaching the Buckeyes.
    — OSU has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
    — Buckeyes don’t have a QB who has a thrown a college pass.

    Penn State
    — Started 0-5 LY, won last four games; were minus-7 in turnovers.
    — Gave up 27.7 ppg LY, most in school history.
    — 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.

    Purdue
    — Went 6-12 SU the last two seasons.
    — ranked 124th in country in rushing LY (81.5 ypg)
    — 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.

    Rutgers
    — Hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2014.
    — K-State transfer Youngblood ran three kicks back for TD’s in 2019.
    — 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.

    Wisconsin
    — 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Ranked 103rd in country in yards/game LY.
    — Last time Badgers didn’t go bowling; 2001.

  14. #14
    Wednesday’s Den: MAC football trends

    Last year, several MAC teams had their season decimated by COVID, playing only 3,4 games.

    Akron:
    — Last three years, they’re 5-25 SU (-23 turnovers)
    — Since 2012, Zips are 4-22 ATS as home underdogs.
    — Covered twice in last 16 games as an underdog.
    — 1-2 all-time in bowl games; they won a bowl in Boise in 2015

    Ball State:
    — Last year was their first bowl game since 2013.
    — Lost opener 38-31 LY, then won last seven games.
    — 8-17 ATS last 25 home games, 14-12 last 26 on road.
    — Since 2015, Cardinals are 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.

    Bowling Green:
    — Falcons were 0-5 LY, giving up 46.3 ppg.
    — Lost 4 of last 5 bowls; their last bowl win was in 2014.
    — Since 2016, Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS as a home favorite.
    — Last two years, Falcons are 2-13 ATS as an underdog.

    Buffalo
    — Went 24-10 SU last 3 years; their coach bolted to Kansas.
    — None of the previous assistants were retained by new coach.
    — Won bowls 31-9/17-10 last two years.
    — Since 2017, Bulls are 22-8-1 ATS in MAC games.

    Central Michigan:
    — As HC, McElwain is 31-16 ATS when favored, 16-16-1 as an underdog.
    — Lost last five bowl games, giving up 42.5 ppg.
    — Since 2014, Chippewas are 18-8 ATS as road underdogs.
    — Were +6 in turnovers LY; previous four years, they were minus-22.

    Eastern Michigan
    — Since 2016, Eagles are 19-3 ATS as road underdogs.
    — Since 2015, EMU is 18-5 ATS tin non-conference games.
    — Last three years, they’re +14 in turnovers; from ’14-’17, they were minus-34.
    — 1-3 all-time in bowls; only win was in 1987.

    Kent State

    — Last ten years, Kent is 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
    — Went 3-1 LY, scoring 49.8 ppg.
    — Last three years, Golden Flashes are 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
    — 1-2 all-time in bowls; they beat Utah State 51-41 in a 2018 bowl.

    Miami
    — HC Martin is 26-19-1 ATS as an underdog, 14-13 when favored.
    — Since 2014, Miami is 25-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.
    — Miami has only 32 returning starts on offensive line TY.
    — Red Hawks are 1-3 in last four bowls; their last bowl win was 2010.

    Northern Illinois
    — Huskies were 0-6 LY, giving up 40+ points four times, 30+ in other two.
    — NIU is 5-13 last two years; from 2011-18, they were 65-34 SU.
    — Huskies are 19-7 ATS in last 26 games as road underdogs
    — NIU lost its last five bowls, scoring only 14.2 ppg.

    Ohio U
    — Coach Solich retired July 13; the old OC is the new head coach.
    — Bobcats are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog.
    — Since 2015, Ohio U is 25-14 ATS coming off a win.
    — Won last three bowls, by combined score of 98-27.

    Toledo
    — HC Candle is 21-17 ATS as favorite, 4-11 as an underdog.
    — Rockets have 101 starts back on OL (whole 2-deep is back)
    — Since 2018, Toledo is 4-12 ATS coming off a win.
    — Rockets lost last three bowls, giving up 32.3 ppg.

    Western Michigan:
    — Broncos went 4-2 LY, scoring 41.7 ppg.
    — Since 2013, WMU is 3-7 ATS as a home underdog.
    — Last four years, Broncos are 18-25-1 ATS.
    — WMU lost last three bowls, scoring 18 ppg.

  15. #15
    Saturday’s Den: Random college football knowledge

    13) Ohio State doesn’t have a quarterback who has thrown a college pass; last time they were in this situation?

    1952.

    12) Purdue coach Jeff Brohm is 14-5 ATS as an underdog with Boilermakers.

    11) Louisiana Tech HC Skip Holtz is 36-20 ATS as a road underdog.

    10) Bowling Green is 3-14 SU in two years under Scott Loeffler; during that time, they’re 2-13 ATS as an underdog, 0-9 as a road underdog.

    9) Florida Atlantic coach Willie Taggart is 35-21 ATS on road, 24-14 as a road underdog.

    8) 27-year old Zac Alley is the defensive coordinator at Louisiana-Monroe, working for Terry Bowden; he spent the last two years as the special teams coach at Boise State. Before that, he was a graduate assistant at Clemson.

    7) Since 2014, Minnesota is 20-10 ATS coming off a loss.

    6) Under coach Fitzpatrick, Northwestern is 31-42-2 ATS as a home favorite; since 2014, they’re 18-5 ATS as a road underdog.

    5) Since Jimbo Fisher has been coach, Texas A&M is 15-6 ATS as a favorite.

    4) Under Ed Orgeron, LSU is 14-8 ATS on the road.

    3) Luke McCaffery is the new QB at Rice; he spent spring practice at Louisville this year, after mostly sitting the last two years at Nebraska, where he threw two passes.

    2) Jerry Jones’ grandson John Stephen Jones is a backup QB at Arkansas.

    1) Michigan lost its last four bowl games; they were favored in three of them.

  16. #16

  17. #17
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 0


    Saturday, August 28




    Eastern Illinois at Indiana State
    Time: 6:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.162; Indiana State 65.989
    Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana State by 19; 44
    Vegas Line & Total: Indiana State by 13 ½; 50
    Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-13 ½); Under

    Alcorn State vs NC Central
    Time: 7:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: Alcorn State 51.218; NC Central 41.084
    Dunkel Line & Total: Alcorn State by 10; 48
    Vegas Line & Total: Alcorn State by 13 ½; 52 ½
    Dunkel Pick: NC Central (+13 ½); Under

    Southern Utah at San Jose State
    Time: 10:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 63.630; San Jose State 81.696
    Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose State by 18; 50
    Vegas Line & Total: San Jose State by 22; 56 ½
    Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+22); Under

  18. #18
    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 0


    Saturday, August 28

    Nebraska @ Illinois
    — Last four years, Nebraska is 16-28 SU
    — Cornhuskers’ last bowl game was five years ago.
    — Nebraska has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Cornhuskers have 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Nebraska’s QB is making his 30th career start.
    — Under Frost, Cornhuskers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.

    — Illinois has had nine losing seasons in a row.
    — New coach this year is Bielema, ex-Wisconsin/Arkansas coach.
    — Illinois has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Illini have 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Last six years, Illinois is 9-16 ATS as a home underdog.
    — Bielema is 26-23-1 ATS as an underdog. 11-10 as a home dog.

    — Nebraska won six of last eight series games.
    — Five of those six wins were by 15+ points.
    — Huskers won 42-38/28-6 in last two visits to Illinois.
    — Last three years, Illinois ran for 285-221-383 yards vs Nebraska.

    UConn @ Fresno State
    — UConn didn’t play last year, hard team to handicap.
    — Huskies were 9-39 SU from 2016-19.
    — UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Huskies have 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — UConn has a QB with 6 starts; unsure who the starter will be.
    — Huskies are 2-9 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs.

    — Fresno was 3-3 LY, giving up 34+ points in all the losses.
    — Bulldogs went 7-11 last two years; in 2017-18, they were 22-6
    — Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Washington transfer Haener (6 starts) is new starting QB.
    — Last two years, Bulldogs were 4-8 ATS as favorites, 2-5 at home.

    — These teams haven’t met the last 20 years.

    Hawai’i @ UCLA
    — Last three years, Hawai’i is 23-15 SU.
    — Rainbows went bowling last three years, winning last two.*
    — Hawai’i has 7 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
    — Rainbows have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Hawai’i’s soph QB has started 13 games.
    — Last four years, Rainbows are 6-11 ATS as road underdogs.

    — Three years under Kelly, UCLA is 10-19 SU.
    — Bruins’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win was 2014.*
    — UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Bruins have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
    — Under Kelly, Bruins are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
    — UCLA hosts LSU next week; will they be looking ahead?

    — UCLA (-24) waxed Hawai’i 56-23 in last meeting, four years ago.

    Texas-El Paso (3-4) @ New Mexico State
    — UTEP has had six losing seasons in a row.*
    — Three years under Dimel, Miners are 5-27 SU.
    — Miners have 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — UTEP has 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — UTEP’s soph QB has 7 career starts.
    — Last 10 years, UTEP is 1-1-1 ATS as road favorites.
    — Last time Miners were a road favorite? 2015.

    — New Mexico State played two I-AA games LY and lost one.
    — Last three years, NM State is 6-20 SU. *
    — NM State has 3 starters back on offense, zero on defense- not good.
    — Aggies have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — NM State’s junior QB is making his 3rd career start.
    — Aggies are 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.

    — NM State won/covered last three series games.
    — Miners lost 44-35/41-14 in last two trips two Las Cruces.
    — Favorites are 6-0-2 ATS last eight series games.

  19. #19
    NCAAF
    *
    Week 0

    *
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, August 28

    Nebraska @ Illinois
    Nebraska
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games on the road*
    Nebraska is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Illinois*
    Illinois
    Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska*
    Illinois is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games*

    Connecticut @ Fresno State
    Connecticut
    Connecticut is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games*
    Connecticut is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road*
    Fresno State
    Fresno State is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home*
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games at home*

    Hawaii @ California-Los Angeles
    Hawaii
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 5 games on the road*
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 6 games*
    California-Los Angeles
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of California-Los Angeles's last 6 games at home*
    California-Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games*

    Texas El Paso @ New Mexico State
    Texas El Paso
    Texas El Paso is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road*
    Texas El Paso is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games*
    New Mexico State
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 5 games*
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State's last 5 games at home*

    Southern Utah @ San Jose State
    Southern Utah
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games on the road*
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games*
    San Jose State
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games*
    San Jose State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  20. #20
    Tech Trends - Week 1
    Bruce Marshall


  21. #21
    NCAAF

    Week 1


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  22. #22
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Wednesday, September 1 - Thursday, September 2




  23. #23
    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 1


    Thursday’s games
    Temple @ Rutgers
    — Temple was 1-6 LY, its first losing season in seven years.
    — Over last decade, Owls are 24-17 ATS out of conference.
    — Temple has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
    — Owls have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Owls have freshman QB with 1 start- he threw 30 passes for Georgia LY.
    — Temple is 13-6 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.

    — Last six years, Rutgers is 16-53 SU.
    — Since 2013, Scarlet Knights are 15-11 ATS out of conference.
    — Rutgers has 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Rutgers has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Rutgers’ junior QB has started 7 games.
    — Last five years, Rutgers is 4-3 ATS as home favorite.

    — Rutgers won last four series games.
    — Teams haven’t met since 2013.
    — Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five series games played here.

    Boise State @ Central Florida
    — Over last decade, Boise State is 100-27 SU.
    — Broncos are 9-11 ATS in last 20 non-league games.
    — Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Boise has soph QB who has started 13 games.
    — Last seven years, Boise is 5-2 ATS as an underdog.

    — UCF is 41-8 last four years; Gus Malzahn is new coach.
    — Malzahn is 22-26-1 ATS as a home favorite.
    — UCF has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Golden Knights have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — UCF has a sophomore QB with 22 career starts.
    — Last five years, UCF is 15-12-1 ATS as home favorites.

    — These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

    East Carolina vs Appalachian State (@ Charlotte)
    — East Carolina has six straight losing seasons.
    — ECU is 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-leaguer games.
    — East Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Pirates have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — East Carolina has a junior QB has started 25 games.
    — Last two years, Pirates are 9-7 ATS as road underdogs.

    — Last six years, ASU is 63-15 SU.
    — App State is 14-9 ATS last 23 non-league games.
    — App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — App State has a QB with 11 starts- he transferred from Duke.
    — ASU was 2-7-1 ATS as favorite LY, coach Clark’s first year.

    — These teams haven’t met since 2012.

    South Florida @ NC State
    — South Florida went 5-16 last two years, after a 36-15 run.
    — Bulls are 14-11 ATS in last 25 non-league games.
    — USF has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Bulls have 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — USF will have a new QB; they have transfers from UNC, Miami.
    — Bulls are 12-9-1 ATS last 22 games as road underdogs.

    — NC State finished over .500 six of last seven years.
    — State is 6-10 ATS last 16 non-conference games.
    — Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — State has 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Wolfpack has soph QB with 8 starts; he’s had injury issues.
    — Last three years, State is 9-6 ATS as home favorites.

    — These teams haven’t met since 2014.

    Bowling Green @ Tennessee
    — Bowling Green is 12-41 SU since Dino Babers bolted to Syracuse.
    — Falcons were 0-5 LY, outscored 225-57.
    — Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Bowling Green has only 14 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Falcons have a junior QB with 5 starts.
    — Last two years, Falcons are 0-9 ATS as an underdog.

    — Tennessee is playing first game for new coach Heupel.
    — Heupel was 9-8 ATS as home favorite at Central Florida.
    — Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Vols have 70 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Vols have QB with 5 starts who transferred from Michigan.
    — Last four years, Tennessee is 5-10 ATS as home favorites.

    — Vols (-21.5) beat Bowling Green 59-30 in 2015.

    Ohio State @ Minnesota
    — Last nine years, Ohio State is 106-11 SU.
    — Buckeyes have home game with Oregon next; better not look ahead.
    — Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
    — OSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Ohio State doesn’t have a QB who has thrown a college pass.
    — Coach Day is 14-5 ATS as a favorite, 6-1 on road.

    — Minnesota was 3-4 SU LY, 18-8 previous two years.
    — Last two years, Gophers are 11-5 ATS in conference games.
    — Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
    — Gophers have a junior QB with 26 starts.
    — Since 2013, Minnesota is 11-8 ATS as home underdog.

    — Teams haven’t played since 2018.
    — Ohio State won last 11 series games (2-5 ATS last seven)
    — Buckeyes covered five of last seven visits to Minnesota.

  24. #24
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Friday, September 3






    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-up

    Week 1


    Friday’s games
    North Carolina @ Virginia Tech

    — UNC is 15-10 SU in two years under Mack Brown.
    — Tar Heels were 5-18 the two years before Brown took over.
    — Tar Heels have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Tech has 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — UNC has a soph QB with 25 career starts.
    — Last three years, Tar Heels are 3-5 ATS as road favorites.

    — Tech is 19-18 SU last three years.
    — Under Fuente, Hokies are 3-5 ATS as home underdogs.
    — Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Hokies’ junior QB has started four games.
    — Last four years, Tech is 12-14 ATS at home.

    — Va Tech is 13-4 in last 17 series games.
    — Tar Heels lost six of last eight visits to Blacksburg.
    — Last two series games ended 56-45/43-41

    Old Dominion @ Wake Forest
    — Old Dominion sat out LY; they were 1-11 in 2019.
    — Monarchs’ new coach was an OC at Penn State.
    — ODU has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
    — Monarchs have 52 returning starts on OL, very little depth.
    — ODU has QB who started 3 games at Central Florida.
    — Monarchs are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

    — Wake was over .500 four of last five seasons.
    — Deacons are 9-7-1 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
    — Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Wake has a sophomore QB with 19 career starts.
    — Under Clawson, Deacons are 12-10 ATS as home favorites.

    — These teams haven’t played each other.

    Duke @ Charlotte
    — Duke went 7-16 SU last two seasons.
    — Last 8 years, Blue Devils are 26-8 ATS out of conference.
    — Duke has 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
    — Blue Devils have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Duke will have new starting QB for third year in row.
    — Under Cutcliffe, Blue Devils are 33-24-2 ATS as favorites.

    — Charlotte is 9-10 SU in two years under Healy.
    — 49ers added several transfers last winter.
    — Charlotte has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
    — 49ers have 29 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Charlotte has a junior QB with 24 starts.
    — Under Healy, 49ers are 3-5 ATS as an underdog.

    — Duke (-20) waxed Charlotte 53-19 LY, running for 274 yards.

    Michigan State @ Northwestern
    — Michigan State is 16-17 SU last three years.
    — Tucker is 2-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
    — Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Michigan State has a QB who started 26 games for Temple.
    — MSU is 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog.

    — Northwestern finished over .500 five of last six seasons.
    — Last six years, Wildcats are 30-15 ATS in conference games.
    — Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
    — Northwestern has 42 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Northwestern’s QB is a Clemson transfer with 5 career starts.
    — Last six years, Wildcats are 12-11-1 ATS as home favorites.

    — Northwestern is 4-3 in last seven series games, but lost last two.
    — Five of last seven series games were won SU by underdogs.
    — Spartans won six of last seven visits to Evanston.

  25. #25
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Friday, September 3

    St. Francis (PA) at Eastern Michigan
    Time: 7:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: St. Francis (PA) 45.011; Eastern Michigan 80.607
    Dunkel Line & Total: Eastern Michigan by 35 ½; 65
    Vegas Line & Total: Eastern Michigan by 32 ½; 54
    Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-32 ½); Over

    South Dakota at Kansas
    Time: 8:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 56.172; Kansas 71.429
    Dunkel Line & Total: Kansas by 15 ½; 49
    Vegas Line & Total: Kansas by 13; 56
    Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-13); Under

    Northern Colorado at Colorado
    Time: 9:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.341; Colorado 83.112
    Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 30; 50
    Vegas Line & Total: Colorado by 38; 56 ½
    Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+38); Under

    South Dakota State at Colorado State
    Time: 9:00 pm ET
    Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 85.213; Colorado State 75.470
    Dunkel Line & Total: South Dakota State by 10; 47
    Vegas Line & Total: Colorado State by 3; 52 ½
    Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+3); Under

  26. #26
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Saturday, September 4



  27. #27
    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-up

    Week 1


    Saturday’s top 13 games
    Stanford vs Kansas State (@Arlington, TX)

    — Stanford finished over .500 nine of last ten years.
    — Cardinal is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 non-conference games.
    — Cardinal has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Stanford has 53 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Cardinal will have a new QB this season.
    — Under Shaw, Stanford is 14-11-1 ATS as underdogs.

    — Last three years, K-State is 17-18 SU.
    — Klieman was Carson Wentz’s coach at North Dakota State.
    — Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
    — K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Wildcats have senior QB with 30 career starts.
    — Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as a favorite.

    — In 2016, Stanford (-14) beat K-State 26-13.

    Penn State @ Wisconsin
    — Penn State won last four games LY, after starting out 0-5.
    — Four years before that, Nittany Lions were 41-11 SU.
    — Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Penn State has a junior QB, with 20 starts.
    — Last five years, Nittany Lions are 4-2 ATS as road underdogs.

    — Over last decade, Wisconsin is 95-35 SU.
    — Badgers are 10-15 ATS in last 25 conference games.
    — Badgers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Wisconsin has 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with seven starts.
    — Last three years, Badgers are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite.

    — Penn State won/covered last four series games.
    — Nittany Lions split their last six visits to Madison.
    — Teams didn’t play last two seasons.

    West Virginia @ Maryland
    — West Virginia finished over .500 six of last seven years.
    — WVU is 6-10 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
    — Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Mountaineers have junior QB with 31 career starts.
    — Last eight years, West Virginia is 8-9 ATS as road favorites.

    — Maryland has had six consecutive losing seasons.
    — Locksley is 18-24 ATS as an underdog.
    — Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Terrapins have sophomore QB who started 4 games.
    — Last seven years, Maryland is 7-11 ATS as home underdog.

    — Teams haven’t met since 2015.
    — West Virginia won nine of last ten series games.

    Indiana @ Iowa
    — Hoosiers were 14-7 SU the last two years.
    — Before 2019, Indiana had eight losing seasons in a row.
    — Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Indiana has 46 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Indiana has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
    — Last three years, Indiana is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog.

    — Iowa has had eight winning seasons in a row.
    — Ferentz is 87-71-2 ATS as a favorite.
    — Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 8 starts.
    — Last three years, Iowa is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.

    — Iowa won seven of last eight series games.
    — Teams didn’t meet the last two seasons.
    — Favorites covered last four series games.

    Louisiana @ Texas
    — Louisiana went 21-4 SU last two seasons.
    — Last three years, ULL is 9-4 ATS out of conference.
    — Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Louisiana has 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Cajuns have a senior QB with 28 career starts.
    — Last 3 years, Louisiana is 7-2-1 ATS as road underdog.

    — First game as Texas coach for Sarkisian.
    — Herman got fired despite going 25-12 SU last three years.
    — Sarkisian was 17-11 ATS as home favorite at Washington/USC.
    — Texas has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — Longhorns have 82 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Texas has a new coach, new QB.
    — Last 4 years, Longhorns are 7-12 ATS as home favorites.

    — These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

    Alabama vs Miami (@ Atlanta)
    — Over last decade, Alabama is 127-12 SU
    — Alabama is 13-10-1 ATS in last 24 games outside SEC
    — Crimson Tide has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Alabama has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Bama’s new QB threw 22 passes in mop-up time LY.
    — Alabama is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games on neutral fields.

    — Miami finished over .500 five of last six years.
    — Miami is 7-9 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
    — Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 30 games.
    — Under Diaz, Miami is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.

    — These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

    San Jose State @ USC
    — San Jose went 7-1 LY, their first winning year since 2012.
    — Spartans beat up a I-AA team 45-14 LW, throwing for 410 yards.
    — Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — San Jose has 112 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Spartans have a senior QB with 18 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
    — Last three years, San Jose is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.

    — USC went 13-6 SU the last two years.
    — Trojans open Pac-12 play with Stanford next week.
    — Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — USC has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Trojans have a soph QB with 17 career starts.
    — Last four years, USC is 7-12 ATS as home favorite.

    — These teams haven’t met since 2009.

    Texas Tech @ Houston (NRG Stadium)
    — Tech has had five losing seasons in a row.
    — Red Raiders are 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games out of conference.
    — Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Tech has 84 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Tech’s soph QB started seven games at Oregon.
    — Last two years, Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS on the road.

    — In two years under Holgorsen, Houston is 7-13 SU
    — last eight years, Cougars are 21-14 ATS out of conference.
    — Cougars have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Houston has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Houston’s junior QB has started 17 games.
    — Holgorsen is 25-34-1 ATS at home.

    — Tech won last three series games.
    — Red Raiders won last meeting 63-49; yardage was 704-635.

    Georgia vs Clemson (@ Charlotte)
    — Georgia won 10+ games seven of last ten years.
    — Dawgs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
    — Dawgs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
    — Georgia has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Dawgs’ soph QB has 16 career starts.
    — Under Smart, Georgia is 3-2 ATS as an underdog.

    — Over last decade, Clemson is 121-18 SU.
    — Last three years, Tigers are 6-8 ATS out of conference.
    — Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Clemson’s freshman QB has made 2 starts.
    — Clemson is 14-8 ATS in last 22 games as a favorite.

    — Teams haven’t met since 2014.
    — Georgia won three of last four series games.

    Southern Miss @ South Alabama
    — USM finished over .500 five of last six years.
    — Golden Eagles’ new coach was OC at Tulane last two years
    — Golden Eagles have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — USM has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Golden Eagles’ soph QB has 3 starts
    — USM’s is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 road games.

    — South Alabama has had seven straight losing seasons.
    — Last nine years, Jaguars are 20-23 ATS out of conference.
    — USA has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — You’re reading armadillosports.com
    — Jaguars have 69 returning starts on offensive line.
    — USA’s QB has also played at South Carolina/Utah.
    — Jaguars are 13-11 ATS in last 24 home games.

    — USA (+13.5) upset Southern Miss 32-21 LY in Hattiesburg.
    — Jaguars threw for 363 yards in that game.

    LSU @ UCLA (1-0)
    — LSU practiced in Houston this week because of the hurricane.
    — Last nine years, Tigers are 18-21 ATS out of conference.
    — LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — LSU’s junior QB has made three starts.
    — Under Orgeron, Tigers are 7-6 ATS as a road favorite.

    — Three years under Kelly, UCLA is 10-21 SU.
    — Bruins’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win was 2014.
    — UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
    — Under Kelly, Bruins are 4-5 ATS as a home underdog.

    — These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

    BYU vs Arizona (@ Las Vegas)
    — BYU was 11-1 LY, after going 18-21 previous three years.
    — Cougars play their arch-rival Utah next week.
    — BYU has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
    — Cougars have 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — BYU will have a new QB this season.
    — Cougars were 8-3 ATS as a favorite last year.

    — Arizona’s new coach has lot of NFL experience as an assistant.
    — Wildcats were 0-5 LY, are 9-20 SU last three years,.
    — Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Arizona has 81 returning starts on offensive line.
    — Arizona’s soph QB started 16 games at South Florida.
    — Last two years, Wildcats are 4-9 ATS as an underdog.

    — BYU won last two series games, 28-23/18-16
    — Last meeting was three years ago.

    Nevada @ California
    — last three years, Nevada is 22-13 SU
    — Wolf Pack is 7-12 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
    — Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
    — Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Nevada’s soph QB has 19 career starts.
    — Wolf Pack is 8-12 ATS in last 20 games as road underdog.

    — Cal only played four games LY; three of them were decided by 4 or less points.
    — Golden Bears are 5-6 ATS in last 11 non-league games.
    — Cal has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
    — Cal has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Cal’s soph QB has 19 career starts.
    — Last three years, Golden Bears are 0-7-1 ATS as home favorites.

    — Teams haven’t met since 2012.

  28. #28
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Sunday, September 5






    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-up

    Week 1


    Sunday’s game
    Notre Dame @ Florida State

    — Last four years, Notre Dame is 43-8 SU.
    — In his career, Kelly is 27-23-2 ATS as road favorite.
    — Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
    — Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Notre Dame has QB who started 18 games at Wisconsin.
    — Last four years, Notre Dame is 10-4-2 ATS as road favorite.

    — Last three years, Florida State is 14-20 SU.
    — FSU has same OC as LY for first time in five years.
    — Seminoles have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
    — FSU has 100 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Seminoles’ senior QB started 33 games at UCF, was hurt last two years.
    — Last five years, FSU is 10-15 ATS as home favorite.

    — Notre Dame won last two series games, 42-26/42-23
    — Fighting Irish ran ball for 353-365 yards in those games.

  29. #29
    Week 1 winners and losers: How much did the loss to Georgia hurt Clemson's chances at the playoff?

    Does Saturday night’s loss to Georgia already put Clemson on the outside of the College Football Playoff?

    Look, we realize that talking about a four-team playoff is pretty absurd after the first week of the college football season. But it’s hard not to wonder just how much Clemson’s chances of a seventh straight playoff berth decreased with a 10-3 loss to Georgia to open the season.

    The Tigers are going to be favored in each of their 11 remaining regular season games. The odds of Clemson finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record and then winning the ACC title game are still exceptionally high. There doesn’t seem to be a real challenger to the Tigers in the conference and there are no teams in the AP preseason Top 25 remaining on Clemson’s schedule.

    But that lack of schedule strength may be more of a curse than a blessing. While Clemson has a straightforward path to an 11-win season, those 11 wins may not be enough to make the playoff.

    Consider this: No. 1 Alabama looked like the reloaded team we thought they were in a win over No. 14 Miami on Saturday afternoon. The Crimson Tide are still looking pretty to go 12-0 or 11-1. While No. 2 Oklahoma didn’t put Tulane away on Saturday in a 40-35 win, the Sooners are still the Big 12 favorites. And with both Iowa State and Texas in the conference, there are multiple opportunities for quality wins by the Sooners.

    Georgia has its quality win already with the victory over the Tigers. And there’s also Ohio State, a team that sprinted away from Minnesota to open the season Thursday night and has the chance for a big non-conference win in Week 2 when No. 11 Oregon comes to Columbus.

    Only the biggest Clemson homers would put the Tigers ahead of any of those four aforementioned teams in the race for the playoff. And even if one or all of those teams stumbles at some point during the regular season, where does Clemson excel enough to make up ground? Top ACC Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami are now both 0-1. Will they be high enough in the College Football Playoff standings to provide Clemson the boost it would need on championship Saturday?

    This is also a Clemson team that didn’t look anything like the powerhouses we’ve seen over the past few years. While D.J. Uiagalelei filled in admirably for Trevor Lawrence in 2020 while Lawrence was out with COVID-19, it’s clear he’s still growing into his role as the Tigers’ full-time starter. And Clemson showed Saturday night that its offensive line is a work in progress while there’s also no clear replacement for Travis Etienne.

    The workhorse back was a relatively unsung hero for the Tigers’ offense over the past four seasons as Lawrence and Deshaun Watson got a lot of credit. Yes, Etienne was considered one of the top running backs in the country in his time at Clemson, but it’s still possible that his importance to the Clemson offense was undervalued. On Saturday night, no Clemson non-QB got more than 14 carries and the team’s leading rusher (Lyn-J Dixon) had one carry for 10 yards.

    Clemson’s veteran defense showed once again on Saturday night that it was a great unit. The Tigers held Georgia to just three offensive points and 256 total yards. That’s typically enough to win games with ease. But it wasn’t enough on Saturday night. Clemson looked the most vulnerable it's ever been in the College Football Playoff era against Georgia. And that’s more than enough to make us wonder if the playoff streak is in serious jeopardy.

    Here are the rest of the winners and losers from the first week of the 2021 college football season.

    - Nick Bromberg

    WINNERS

    Alabama QB Bryce Young: Bryce Young’s debut as Alabama’s starting quarterback was a thing of beauty. The Crimson Tide spanked No. 14 Miami in Atlanta, 44-13, and Young lived up to the five-star hype. Young completed 27-of-38 throws for 344 yards and four touchdowns, including a fantastic 94-yarder to Jameson Williams out of his own end zone. He couldn’t have thrown it any better.

    Texas:

    The first game of the Steve Sarkisian era was very positive for Texas. The Longhorns, ranked No. 21 in the country, hosted No. 23 Louisiana and came away with an impressive 38-18 victory. Louisiana was one of the best Group of Five teams in the country in 2020 but Texas’ talent won out on Saturday. RB Bijan Robinson and WR Jordan Whittington were especially impressive. Robinson rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown. He also caught four passes for 73 yards and a score. Whittington went for 113 yards and a score on seven receptions.

    Penn State:

    How about that Penn State defense? The PSU defense was on the field for a whopping 95 plays on the road at Wisconsin and only surrendered 10 points. Along the way, the Nittany Lions forced three turnovers, including two pivotal interceptions in the final minutes. PSU took a 16-10 lead with 9:17 to play and then intercepted Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz twice to seal a dramatic victory. Jaquan Brisker’s interception on fourth-and-goal was the play of the game. Gus Johnson’s call was electric.

    Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker:

    Walker was the best player on the field in his first game in a Michigan State uniform. The Wake Forest transfer reeled off a 75-yard touchdown run on his first touch as a Spartan. It was a sign of things to come in a 38-21 road win for MSU. Walker finished the night with 263 yards and four touchdowns on 23 carries. Walker rushed for 579 yards and 13 touchdowns last year at Wake. If his Week 1 performance is any indication, he is set to blow past those stats this year.

    UCLA:

    It wasn't just that the Bruins beat No. 16 LSU on Saturday, it was the way they did it. In a 38-27 win, UCLA completely dominated the lines of scrimmage by rushing for 208 yards and limiting the LSU to just 48 yards on 25 carries. The running back duo of Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown was excellent and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson connected on several explosive gains in the passing game. On top of that, the defense was able to get consistent pressure on LSU QB Max Johnson. It's hard not to be impressed by Chip Kelly's team.

    Michigan:

    The 2020 season was a brutal one for Michigan, but Jim Harbaugh’s group started the 2021 season with an excellent outing. The Wolverines blew out Western Michigan by a score of 47-14 and used a dominant rushing attack to do so. Michigan put up 335 rushing yards with Blake Corum (14 carries for 111 yards) and Hassan Haskins (13 carries for 70 yards) leading the way. Saturday’s performance had to have given the Wolverines a nice confidence boost with soon-to-be-former-No. 20 Washington visiting Ann Arbor next weekend.

    South Carolina QB Zeb Noland:

    You probably know the story by now. A few weeks ago, Noland was serving as a graduate assistant. But with starting QB Luke Doty injured and the Gamecocks' QB depth lacking, Noland was added to the active roster. The former QB at Iowa State and North Dakota State then became South Carolina's starter. South Carolina beat Eastern Illinois 46-0 on Saturday, and Noland threw four TD passes. He only had 121 yards, but hey, four TDs is impressive no matter the circumstances.

    Big Sky Conference:

    Three members of the Big Sky beat FBS opponents in Week 1. Montana's monster upset over No. 20 Washington will deservedly get the headlines, but don't forget about UC Davis beating Tulsa and Eastern Washington beating UNLV. Maybe once the Big 12 is through raiding the AAC, the AAC can pluck a few of these Big Sky schools to fill out its roster of members?

    Maryland:

    One of the best games of the early window was West Virginia vs. Maryland. It was close the whole way through, but the Terps emerged with a 30-24 victory. Maryland trailed 21-20 at halftime before pulling ahead in the fourth quarter. The Terrapins put the game away with a 60-yard TD pass from Taulia Tagovailoa to Rakim Jarrett with 6:25 to play. Tagovailoa was excellent in the win. He completed 26-of-36 throws for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Jarrett and Dontay Demus were his top targets. The duo combined for 12 catches for 255 yards and two scores while Maryland also forced four turnovers.

    Kansas:

    Kansas scored a late touchdown to beat South Dakota, 17-14, on Friday night to give Lance Leipold a win in his KU debut as the Jayhawks avoided losing to an FCS team again. The win was also Kansas' first since Oct. 26, 2019. Naturally, the fans stormed the field. There won't be many more wins for the Jayhawks in 2021, so enjoy the moment while you can.

    LOSERS

    Oklahoma: Yes, we're putting Oklahoma in this category despite touting their playoff chances above. The Sooners had a rough go of it on Saturday and fell behind Tulane early before having to stave off a late Green Wave comeback.

    That comeback should never have happened. OU was up 37-14 at halftime before hanging on to win 40-35. Yes, Oklahoma scored just three points in the second half. Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler was 30-of-39 passing for 304 yards and a TD and two interceptions while also running for a TD. One of those picks came on Rattler's second throw of the game.

    And while Rattler didn't have an A game, neither did the Oklahoma defense. The Sooners' defensive improvement is key to their chances of making the playoff. And while Tulane is a solid AAC team, giving up 35 to the Green Wave is not a good omen for the rest of the season.

    Iowa State:

    If we’re picking on Oklahoma, Iowa State deserves a bit of criticism too. The Cyclones have been prone to slow starts under Matt Campbell, and Saturday was no different. ISU opened the season ranked No. 7, its best preseason ranking ever. The Cyclones did not live up to that billing against FCS Northern Iowa. Iowa State managed to win the game, but it was just by the score of 16-10. ISU went into halftime with 13-10 lead and managed to score only three points in the second half. That’s not going to cut it against Iowa next week.

    Indiana:

    That 2020 Indiana magic did not carry over into 2021. For much of the 2020 season, it felt like everything was going right for the Hoosiers as they got out to a 6-1 start. In the 2021 opener against Iowa, things did not go well. At all. The Hoosiers were trounced 34-6 and put up only 233 yards of offense in the process. IU quarterback Michael Penix — back from a torn ACL that ended his 2020 season — had two interceptions returned for a touchdown in the first half. Those turnovers allowed Iowa to open up a commanding 31-3 halftime lead.

    Boise State:

    Boise State was sitting pretty early in its road game against UCF on Thursday night. The Broncos stormed out to a 21-0 lead and held a 24-7 advantage late in the second quarter. But then the wheels fell off. UCF came all the way back and took a 28-24 lead late in the third. Boise would go back in front 31-30 with 8:02 to play, but would end up losing, 36-31. The Broncos combined for minus-25 yards on their first four second-half drives. Nonetheless, they had a chance to take the lead in the final minutes. Instead, QB Hank Bachmeier threw an ill-advised interception in UCF territory and BSU went home with a loss.

    Stanford:

    Stanford had a brutal offensive performance against Kansas State. The Cardinal had 39 rushing yards on 22 attempts and 194 passing yards on 30 attempts in a 24-7 loss. The only time the Cardinal scored was with 3:16 left in regulation. And that 75-yard scoring drive accounted for 32% of Stanford’s offensive production. That’s not a recipe for success.

    With Davis Mills now in the NFL, Stanford played two QBs: Tanner McKee and Jack West. Neither were very impressive. With 12 Power Five opponents on the schedule, this might be a long year for Stanford. Especially if math is a weakness for the coaching staff. It's inexplicable that Stanford didn't go for two to attempt to cut KSU's lead to two possessions after scoring that TD.

    Illinois:

    That Week 0 shine did not last long for Illinois. A week after upsetting Nebraska, the Illini followed it up by losing 37-30 to UTSA. UTSA is one of the better teams in Conference USA, but it was still a tough dose of reality for Illinois in its first year under Bret Bielema. UTSA jumped out to a 14-0 lead and never let Illinois get closer than three points. The Roadrunners gashed the Illini for 497 yards of offense in the win.

    Georgia Tech:

    Year 3 of the Geoff Collins era got off to a horrid start in Atlanta as Northern Illinois beat the Yellow Jackets, 22-21. The win was NIU’s first since 2019 after going 0-6 in 2020 and came when Rocky Lombardi threw a pass to Tyrice Richie for a two-point conversion with 38 seconds left. The conversion came after Lombardi hit Clint Ratkovich for a three-yard TD pass. Props to NIU coach Thomas Hammock for going for the win. The Yellow Jackets also appeared to lose QB Jeff Sims to a shoulder injury. With such a tough schedule ahead, this was a brutal way to open the season for GT.

    Houston:

    The first game of Dana Holgorsen’s third year at Houston looked a lot like what his teams did throughout the first two. The Cougars opened the season by losing 38-21 to Texas Tech — potentially a future Big 12 conference mate. This was a game that Houston led 21-7 at halftime before getting outscored 31-0 in the second half. Houston QB Clayton Tune threw four interceptions including a pick-six that tied the score at 21-21 in the third.

    Louisiana Tech:

    Louisiana Tech blew its chance to beat an SEC opponent on the road. The Bulldogs led Mississippi State 34-14 with 13:11 to go. They lost, 35-34. MSU proceeded to reel off three consecutive touchdown drives while the La. Tech offense went into a shell. MSU went ahead 35-34 with 3:37 to play, leaving Tech plenty of time to win it. La. Tech advanced to the MSU 30 with just over a minute to go, and then Skip Holtz proceeded to run the ball three straight times, setting up a 46-yard field goal instead of trying to make life easier for his kicker. The result? A miss and a Mississippi State victory. Gross.

    USF, Temple and Navy:

    These three did not represent the AAC very well in Week 1. USF was trounced 45-0 by NC State. Temple, meanwhile, lost 61-14 to Rutgers. Rutgers! Last but not least, Navy was blown out 49-7 at home by Marshall.

    Washington, Tulsa, Colorado State, UNLV, UConn and Vanderbilt:

    You all lost to FCS teams. Not good.

  30. #30
    NCAAF
    Dunkel

    Week 1


    Monday, September 6






    NCAAF
    Armadillo's Write-up

    Week 1


    Monday’s game
    Louisville @ Ole Miss

    — Last three years, Louisville is 14-22 SU.
    — In his career, Satterfield is 7-10-2 ATS as road underdog.
    — Louisville has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
    — Cardinals have 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Louisville has QB with 25 career starts.
    — Last three years, Cardinals are 2-9-1 ATS as road underdog.

    — Coach Kiffin has COVID, won’t be at this game.
    — Last five years, Ole Miss is 6-11 ATS out of conference.
    — Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
    — Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on the offensive line.
    — Rebels’ soph QB has started 14 games.
    — Last three years, Ole Miss is 6-4 ATS as home favorite.

    — These teams are meeting for first time.

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