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Thread: ADVICE NEEDED

  1. #1

    ADVICE NEEDED

    PRIOR TO THE START OF THE SEASON I PLACED A $50 FUTURE ON CINNCY TO WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP AT 150-1. THEY NOW HAVE 2 GAMES LEFT TO PLAY AND I REALIZE THAT ANY SLIP UP THEY ARE OUT. THEY MAY ALSO BE OUT IF MICH UPSETS OHIO ST. I DO THINK THEY MAY BE PEAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME AND SOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE BOTH ECU AND HOUSTON. THAT BEING SAID, HOW WOULD YOU MOVE FORWARD WITH A POSSIBLE HEDGE? OR WOULD YOU? ANY ADVICE IS APPRECIATED.

    GLTA, BLASTER

  2. #2
    If Michigan upsets OSU, OSU is out with 2 losses and Michigan is in. No impact on Cincinnati from an in or out standpoint. At $50, I'd ride out the next couple games then look at the options in the actual playoff.
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  3. #3
    Cincinnati still faces major roadblocks to College Football Playoff spot
    By Zach Braziller

    https://nypost.com/2021/11/21/cincin...tball-playoff/
    We move forward with you or without you!

  4. #4
    Registered User zoomer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhatsHisNuts View Post
    If Michigan upsets OSU, OSU is out with 2 losses and Michigan is in. No impact on Cincinnati from an in or out standpoint. At $50, I'd ride out the next couple games then look at the options in the actual playoff.
    I agree with this strategy.
    Long Island

  5. #5
    Cincinnati moves into College Football Playoff position

    https://www.local10.com/sports/2021/...yoff-position/
    We move forward with you or without you!

  6. #6
    APPRECIATE THE FEEDBACK FELLAS. ANYONE ELSE HAVE AN OPINION?

  7. #7
    You are risking $50 - what is there to hedge?

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  8. #8
    Hope it gets there for you

  9. #9
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    WhatsHisNuts advice is right on the money. Cincy will win out in the regular season (I think) and then take a look at your options.

  10. #10
    Registered User gjn23's Avatar
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    Its a $50 layout

    You're still 2 wins from making the playoffs and 4 wins from cashing a possible winning ticket

    Cin won't be favored vs anyone in any playoff game

    At this point you don't have any hedge options.
    Go Cubs Go!
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    Cheer Cheer for Ole Notre Dame!

  11. #11
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    I have posted this about 1 million times on here and I'll say it again..........

    If you placed a wager with the expectation to win that wager, you never hedge. If you placed the wager planning on hedging it in the future, then you hedge your bet.


    Or to put it another way.........why the hell did you place a wager if you didn't want to win the wager?




    kickserv says......never ever ever ever ever ever ever hedge your bet.


    hammer1 didn't hedge his 50 dollar wager and he won over a million bucks

    https://www.madjacksports.com/forum/...-parlay-winner!
    .
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    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

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    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  12. #12
    Sell it some cincy fan for $100. Only chance of making any money on that ticket.

  13. #13
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMONEY83 View Post
    Sell it some cincy fan for $100. Only chance of making any money on that ticket.

    764f955e-0599-4df0-b94e-57f295033d45_text.gif
    .
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    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

    and of course.............GO LEAFS GO!!!

    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by kickserv View Post
    Canuck with no sense of humor... imagine that

  15. #15
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMONEY83 View Post
    Canuck with no sense of humor... imagine that
    Actually I thought it was quite a funny gif in response to your sarcasm



    And you spelled humour wrong
    .
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    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

    and of course.............GO LEAFS GO!!!

    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by kickserv View Post
    Actually I thought it was quite a funny gif in response to your sarcasm



    And you spelled humour wrong
    Sure didn't little buddy.

  17. #17
    ya get to that $7,500.00 hedge and guarantee yourself a nice payday...

    That will fatten that gambling bankroll right on up.

    Bring it home blaster...
    We move forward with you or without you!

  18. #18
    Registered User LonghornMM's Avatar
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    Why would you consider hedging at $50 bet?

    I hope that Cincy hits for you.

  19. #19
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    I don’t see a great hedging opportunity yet on this.

    But, i don’t agree at all with the folks talking about your initial outlay. The $50 is meaningless at this point - it’s only the current value that matter. And that’s how you should think about what to do - not the original bet.

    It’s like if you bought $1000 of Amazon stock 10 years ago that is now worth $234k. You don’t worry about the original $1000. You trade it based on its current value. You don’t never sell, just because you only “risked” $1000.


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  20. #20
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    I will buy it for $120


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    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by kickserv View Post
    I have posted this about 1 million times on here and I'll say it again..........

    If you placed a wager with the expectation to win that wager, you never hedge. If you placed the wager planning on hedging it in the future, then you hedge your bet.


    Or to put it another way.........why the hell did you place a wager if you didn't want to win the wager?




    kickserv says......never ever ever ever ever ever ever hedge your bet.


    hammer1 didn't hedge his 50 dollar wager and he won over a million bucks

    https://www.madjacksports.com/forum/...-parlay-winner!
    Kickserv has great tennis advice. He’s friends with Jason, Jennifer Love, and he fights for young Sam and Dudley.

    But, this is very bad advice.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

  22. #22
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jord20 View Post
    Kickserv has great tennis advice. He’s friends with Jason, Jennifer Love, and he fights for young Sam and Dudley.

    But, this is very bad advice.


    kickserv disagrees with the above post


    #neverhedgeabet
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    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

    and of course.............GO LEAFS GO!!!

    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  23. #23
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jord20 View Post

    It’s like if you bought $1000 of Amazon stock 10 years ago that is now worth $234k. You don’t worry about the original $1000. You trade it based on its current value. You don’t never sell, just because you only “risked” $1000.
    Actually this is not correct. When one purchases 1000 dollars worth of stock, one does not know what the payout (if any) would be on that stock. If one places a sports wager at specific odds they know exactly what the payout would be and the exact month/day/year of that payout. Also stocks are never "done" like a sporting event is. You could have a stock for 50 years or 50 seconds if you wanted to. A sporting event has a set date when that wager comes to an end. Treating the value of a sports wager and a stock as one and the same is something one can not do. Plus a stock can skyrocket in value in one hour or go to zero in a matter of seconds. A wager on a NCAA Football Team to win an NCAA Title does not fluctuate anywhere close to how a stock operates.

    Oh and if you bought a stock for 1000 dollars and it is worth $234,000 now, I'd say the 1000 dollars you spent means quite a bit as per what the actually "current value" of that stock stands at.


    And going back to my point I made in my post above. If one buys a stock for 50 dollars and at that time they say to themselves that they will sell it at say 500 dollars then that's what you do. If one places a 50 dollar bet at 150-1 odds and they say to themselves they'll be happy with a 500 dollar return then that's what they do (they hedge the bet). If they placed the 50 dollar bet at 150-1 odds and planned on winning that bet then they wait to cash the ticket, or take the loss. Why place the bet if you didn't want to win the bet? Simple.


    Let us not forget, you hedge, you miss out on millions of dollars, it is called gambling

    https://www.madjacksports.com/forum/...-parlay-winner
    Last edited by kickserv; 11-25-2021 at 10:53 PM.
    .
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    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

    and of course.............GO LEAFS GO!!!

    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by kickserv View Post
    Actually this is not correct. When one purchases 1000 dollars worth of stock, one does not know what the payout (if any) would be on that stock. If one places a sports wager at specific odds they know exactly what the payout would be and the exact month/day/year of that payout. Also stocks are never "done" like a sporting event is. You could have a stock for 50 years or 50 seconds if you wanted to. A sporting event has a set date when that wager comes to an end. Treating the value of a sports wager and a stock as one and the same is something one can not do. Plus a stock can skyrocket in value in one hour or go to zero in a matter of seconds. A wager on a NCAA Football Team to win an NCAA Title does not fluctuate anywhere close to how a stock operates.

    Oh and if you bought a stock for 1000 dollars and it is worth $234,000 now, I'd say the 1000 dollars you spent means quite a bit as per what the actually "current value" of that stock stands at.


    And going back to my point I made in my post above. If one buys a stock for 50 dollars and at that time they say to themselves that they will sell it at say 500 dollars then that's what you do. If one places a 50 dollar bet at 150-1 odds and they say to themselves they'll be happy with a 500 dollar return then that's what they do (they hedge the bet). If they placed the 50 dollar bet at 150-1 odds and planned on winning that bet then they wait to cash the ticket, or take the loss. Why place the bet if you didn't want to win the bet? Simple.


    Let us not forget, you hedge, you miss out on millions of dollars, it is called gambling

    https://www.madjacksports.com/forum/...-parlay-winner
    Yikes


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    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

  25. #25
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jord20 View Post
    Yikes



    .
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    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

    and of course.............GO LEAFS GO!!!

    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  26. #26
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    You spent $50 on a 29 team parlay. The payout is 975k. You hit the first 28. The last one is a -110.

    Just let it ride and do nothing because you only spent $50 instead of heading and making 900k or $100k instead only the 975 on what you knew was fixed from the beginning. Because you thought you’d win. Lol. Good luck with that mindset over the long run.


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    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

  27. #27
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    Literally every big bank and trading firm makes their money by hedging. Most companies too


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    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

  28. #28
    Wrong Forum Mod kickserv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jord20 View Post
    You spent $50 on a 29 team parlay. The payout is 975k. You hit the first 28. The last one is a -110.

    Just let it ride and do nothing because you only spent $50 instead of heading and making 900k or $100k instead only the 975 on what you knew was fixed from the beginning. Because you thought you’d win. Lol. Good luck with that mindset over the long run.

    If it works for hammer1, it is good enough for me




    And ummm............the "wager 50 dollars for a payout of 975k" scenario is a bit rare, just sayin'
    .
    .

    CANADA IS HOCKEY!
    HOCKEY IS CANADA!

    and of course.............GO LEAFS GO!!!

    No whammies, No whammies, No whammies......STOP!!!

  29. #29
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    Making a decision binary just from thinking of the initial investment is literally dead wrong from a probability standpoint


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by kickserv View Post
    If it works for hammer1, it is good enough for me




    And ummm............the "wager 50 dollars for a payout of 975k" scenario is a bit rare, just sayin'
    Lol.

    Of course it’s rare. Sometimes it just helps to clear your thinking. Like the Monty Hall problem. 1 in 3 doors is hard. 1 in a million isn’t


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    “IF ONE DOES NOT MOVE, THEY DO NOT NOTICE THE CHAINS”

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. – Frederic Bastiat

    There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible to live without breaking laws. – Ayn Rand

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