ANOTHER STATISTICAL MISMATCH WINNER TODAY

[shbtopdog]

After going 6-0-1 in yesterdays games, with one prop still pending on the outcome of NE game, today I go back to an old gem that cashed for me last week as my biggest play of the day.

Play on NE +1 -120 @OLY team to have the most 1st downs in the game

NE is absolutely dominant in this category. As I stated last week, in the PATS 17 games this year, (Including last weeks playoff game) only 3 times did there opponent record more 1st downs than them and twice it was Miami, who seems to give NE trouble always.
SD on the other hand,despite their gawdy win loss record, out of there 16 games only 8 times did they record more 1st downs than the opposition.

Belichik and Brady have the ability to control games like no other coach/qb

Again like they did each week for the last 17, expect Brady to mythodically control the ball, clock and game with short passes, high 3rd down conversion rates, mixed in with power running of Dillon and speed of Maroney.Also not many teams will go for it on 4th as will the PATS. These are the things that lead to long drives, that keep the chains moving. That's what NE does best.

Get this bet in before the price jumps

gl to all

 

[shbtopdog]

Adding a play for todays 1st game.
Playing on M. HASSLEBACK -10.5 yds vs bears qbs TOTAL PASSING YARDS-120 @ OLY

This prop has winner written all over it to the point of making me nervous. Nevertheless when they're this good you have to hit em good. So I did.

It's no secret that Seattle is abominable @ stopping the run. With that said expect Lovey to ease all pressure possible off of Rex by hammering the Hawks on the ground and throwing as little as necessary.

For Seattle, Alexander has not been the same player everybody is used to seeing, injuries and teams stacking up on the line against the run have drastically reduced his numbers. I think Seattle will look to Branch, Jackson and Stevens to make plays for them today.

It's quite likely the bears could get out early and force Seattle to throw the ball a high percentage of the time. Meanwhile Chicago will be satisfied with keeping it on the ground while the clock continues to roll.

Hassleback has been in plenty of big games in his career, I don't expect him to be in awe of this defense, he'll make enough plays to cash the ticket. Grossman on the other hand will leave his dirty work to Jones, Benson and that solid O-line.

Gl to all

 

[patlives]

Betjam has HASSLEBACK -8.5 -105 right now

 

[shbtopdog]

Adding Seattle OVER 7 1st half +105 @OLY
Not a real lot to ask here. One big play offense, defense, or special teams would provide at least a push.