Atlanta
- Thread starter ShinerGrinder
- Start date
Good luck tonight guys!
Win Bets:
0.5* Matt Kenseth 12/1
0.5* Kyle Larson @ 20/1
0.5* Kasey Kahne @ 22/1
0.5* Ryan Newman @ 35/1
This season on 1.5 mile tracks Kenseth has been a consistent performer. In the five races on tracks of this length he?s scored the 4th most points and is one of just two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Between the Texas, Charlotte and Auto Club races this season Kenseth has scored the 2nd most points and has a 4.7 average finish. In practice #2 his car showed good speed and his ten lap average ranked as the 10th best. In Happy Hour his ten lap average was way down the charts but I think that was largely a product of the tires he was on.
Kyle Larson will be going all out on Sunday night. This race will truly be checkers or wreckers for him. Points racing will no longer work and I don?t think he has a good chance of winning at Richmond. I expect Kyle Larson to have a great race. He?s a driver who thrives running the high-line and that?s an area of expertise for him. With him starting in 3rd look for him to run near the front all night long. In practice his car looked sporty over a long run. In all three practice sessions this weekend his ten lap average ranked in the top ten. The two tracks that are probably the most similar from a tire wear perspective are Auto Club Speedway and Texas. At those two venues combined this season he scored the 2nd most points and has a 3.5 average finish.
Kasey Kahne will be going for the ?Hail Mary?. If he doesn?t win you can probably stick a fork in his Chase chances because he?s not going to get in by points, and a win at Richmond will be difficult. On tracks of this length he?s scored the 6th most points and is one of six drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race. Also at these venues he has an 8.8 average finish. In practice #2 Kasey Kahne got up on the wheel and had the 5th best ten lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 11th best.
Ryan Newman tested here so that should help improve his level of competitiveness. Also when he tested here they focused running in the evening. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 6th best. In Happy Hour it ranked as the 15th best. Since New Hampshire minus his Watkins Glen wreck he?s finished between 5th and 13th every race. This season on 1.5 tracks Newman has been a strong performer. Between the five races on tracks of this length he?s scored the 10th most points.
Dawg
Win Bets:
0.5* Matt Kenseth 12/1
0.5* Kyle Larson @ 20/1
0.5* Kasey Kahne @ 22/1
0.5* Ryan Newman @ 35/1
This season on 1.5 mile tracks Kenseth has been a consistent performer. In the five races on tracks of this length he?s scored the 4th most points and is one of just two drivers who have finished in the top ten every race. Between the Texas, Charlotte and Auto Club races this season Kenseth has scored the 2nd most points and has a 4.7 average finish. In practice #2 his car showed good speed and his ten lap average ranked as the 10th best. In Happy Hour his ten lap average was way down the charts but I think that was largely a product of the tires he was on.
Kyle Larson will be going all out on Sunday night. This race will truly be checkers or wreckers for him. Points racing will no longer work and I don?t think he has a good chance of winning at Richmond. I expect Kyle Larson to have a great race. He?s a driver who thrives running the high-line and that?s an area of expertise for him. With him starting in 3rd look for him to run near the front all night long. In practice his car looked sporty over a long run. In all three practice sessions this weekend his ten lap average ranked in the top ten. The two tracks that are probably the most similar from a tire wear perspective are Auto Club Speedway and Texas. At those two venues combined this season he scored the 2nd most points and has a 3.5 average finish.
Kasey Kahne will be going for the ?Hail Mary?. If he doesn?t win you can probably stick a fork in his Chase chances because he?s not going to get in by points, and a win at Richmond will be difficult. On tracks of this length he?s scored the 6th most points and is one of six drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race. Also at these venues he has an 8.8 average finish. In practice #2 Kasey Kahne got up on the wheel and had the 5th best ten lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 11th best.
Ryan Newman tested here so that should help improve his level of competitiveness. Also when he tested here they focused running in the evening. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 6th best. In Happy Hour it ranked as the 15th best. Since New Hampshire minus his Watkins Glen wreck he?s finished between 5th and 13th every race. This season on 1.5 tracks Newman has been a strong performer. Between the five races on tracks of this length he?s scored the 10th most points.
Dawg
Matchup #1:
2* Matt Kenseth +105 over Denny Hamlin
I'll be monitoring these all day long, and this is the first one but I'm hoping for a few more.
Hamlin doesn?t have a single finish in the top ten on tracks of this length in 2014 where he has a 14.0 average running position and a 16.3 average finish. Texas is the most similar track visited and at that venue he finished 13th. Last year here at Atlanta he should?ve just parked his car because his race was far from incident free. He started in the back because of an engine change, broke something racing against Menard, pitted outside his box, got spun by Paul Menard in retaliation and then finished 38th. To be fair though in Happy Hour Hamlin did have the 2nd best 10 lap average.
Dawg
Matchup #2:
1* Greg Biffle +100 over Carl Edwards
Greg Biffle is getting momentum now. In the last four races he has four consecutive top tens. This season on 1.5 mile tracks Biffle has scored the 13th most points and has a 15.8 average finish. Texas is the single most similar track to Atlanta and at that venue he earned the 5th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and finished 6th. This season on 1.5 mile tracks Edwards hasn?t been that strong but pit strategy has helped him greatly to get good finishes. In the five races on 1.5 mile tracks in 2014 Edwards has scored the 7th most points and has a 9.2 average finish. However because of tire wear tonight every put stop will be of the 4 tire variety. Carl will be driving a chassis he finished 17th with at Kentucky. At this point in the season performance wise I don't believe Carl's team is where they need to be.
Dawg
2x - Jeff Gordon +400
.5x - Kyle Larson +2100, Kast Kahne +2250
Jeff Gordon appears to be the man to beat this weekend. Best 5, 10, 15 lap average in happy hour. 10 lap average was 2 mph faster than the 2nd fastest car.
Agree with Swandawg on Kahne and Larson. Must win situation and I think they have a shot at pulling it out.
Best of luck everyone!
.5x - Kyle Larson +2100, Kast Kahne +2250
Jeff Gordon appears to be the man to beat this weekend. Best 5, 10, 15 lap average in happy hour. 10 lap average was 2 mph faster than the 2nd fastest car.
Agree with Swandawg on Kahne and Larson. Must win situation and I think they have a shot at pulling it out.
Best of luck everyone!
Matchup #3 - #4 & #5
2* Kyle Larson +120 over Tony Stewart
2* Dale Earnhardt Jr +135 over Denny Hamlin
2* Joey Logano +110 over Denny Hamlin
This it for tonight!
Dawg
Nice picking on this one Bubba!
Got the 22/1 winner Boys! Congrats to Shiner on picking Kahne as well!
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