Bowling Card ( Dec 18-Jan 10) may the wind always be at your back

Irish

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NC st (-2.5) over WVU
Now I fancy myself a bit of a WVU fan but looking and just the teams and no line I likes NC st. I was thinking this should be anywhere from 4 to 6. Watching WVU is painful, this past week against a terrible Rutgers team WVU managed to turn it over a ton but pull away late. If you want to teach kids how to run east and west then record WVU. They love the scat type player but the problem there is when they need the first down. The only true power back is Ryan Clark and he is not the best at holding onto the ball. NC state has been to one bowl game in the past four years and I expect this group will be hungry to play. WVU has a good QB he has a good arm but I question some of his throws and I certainly question his toughness to run when the play breaks down and get hit trying to get the first. Then again he normally runs out of bounds. WVU is in my mind led emotionally by the defense. They feed off that defense as games go on and they start to wear down a defense with ball possession on offense. But the game breaker is Russell Wilson. This guy is going to give WVU fits because of escapability. WVU has speed at LB but they rush the edge and Russell should have the middle open up for big gains all day. O'Brien is 6-2 in bowl games and I give him twice as much respect that Stewart. It's plan and simple in my eyes when you see both teams did not come from the toughest conferences but the ACC was two times what the big east was this year. The ACC alone did not look to many first year QB all had veteran offensive groups and this division has good speed. Now do you think WVU beats Miami or plays to the fourth quarter with VT? The answer is no. They played a decent game against LSU but ultimately the sched was soft. He'll Maryland gave them all they could handle at WVU before the terps started playing good football. South Florida down, UCONN down, Pitt completely underachieved, Cincy bad, Rutgers bad, in fact the two most improved big east teams were Louisville and Cuse. This game will be about who can coach better to gameplan at kickoff, who can beat that game plan and who can recover. Well game plan ore game goes to O'Brien, who can beat the game plan that's either Russell, Geno or Noel. Who can recover at half well again that's NC st. I think these teams will score and possibly at will. I am not sure if WVU will be able to run on State. I would think they crowd the box and take the edges. WVU does not have the line to power down so they use speed and misdirecting BUT a big issue is they string a ton out which should let NC st use the sideline as a big defender. I think WVU has more talent at WR but I think NC st can rattle Geno with the blitz. Like south Florida did to them. Mainly I do not think NC st will beat themselves like WVU. Turnovers and bad plays seem to be expected on WVU sideline and against good teams those are the difference. I agree WVU has a much improved defense but I think that is a result of playing a lot of bad offenses in the big east. They do not stop NC st and they hurt themselves and realize that the score is getting further and further from tied and we see the panic and the lack of disciple. Should be a fun game but I like almost every side of NC st compared to WVU. One interesting question is WVU does travel well but NC st is closer. I am wondering what is the dominate color in the stands. Bill Stewart is two and one in bowl games but a lot of that was talent on the field not coaching. Yes Bill won against Oklahoma when rod left and the team wanted to win. The following year a close win over UNC in a game where UNC had every option to win. And last year a 12 loss to FSU notice a trend? The bowls are getting further from January and the score is on the wrong side.

Good luck everyone
Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Troy (-1) over Ohio
Troy normally plays VERY well in bowl games. Now I am not saying they have won the bowl games but they play well. The last two bowl games I think Troy was out gunned and out manned against central Michigan who they took to double overtime and two years ago against southern miss. In fact the Trojans are 1-3 in bowls but the only win coming in 2006. That means the Trojans should be very hungry for a win. Ohio played Marshall in a bowl game last year and lost a close game. I think Ohio has a good offense system but I can't think the players in that system are better than the players on the Troy defense. Not sure Ohio will be ad happy to be hear since they had a shot at the big Mac game but the loss to Toledo ended that dream. Now the problem with this play is the Troy run game defense. Ohio runs a form of the pistol and have some option mixed in. Well Troy is not a juggernaut against the run. After all they did give up 100 yards to three different backs in ONE game. The Ohio defense struggles to get off the field on third down. I think they are successful 39% of the time. The bobcat pass defense is not great but they have picked off 17 picks. Question how will boo Jackson play. The guy has had less that 250 pass attempts this season yet ge has 16 picks. Can Troy stack the box and LIMIT since they can't shut down the run can they get Ohio behind the chains in long down and distance. What I really like is Troy has been to the bowl in new Orleans twice already and are 1-1 but they have the record for offense in the bowl. Ohio is 0-4 in bowl games overall and 0-2 in MAC championships. This kind of looks like the bobcats are not really good under the pressure of the big game. Two teams lucky to be in a bowl. A lot of points should go on the board. Ohio edges the run game but Troy is far more balanced. They average 40 pass attempts a game yet still have some running backs that can break it open. Normally I would go with the dominate running game in a bowl like this but I think Troy will be more comfortable in this bowl with more options on offense. If troys defense practices all off time to stop the run then I think they can put Ohio in the rearvuew. What is tue best way to defend the run. Get out on top and score early forcing Ohio to pass and they won't be able to keep up. Still I do not think they can do that so I expect the Troy offense to be the more productive since they do not have to rely solely on the run and lean on a QB that makes the wrong throw and has not been called on to win the game.

Thanks AR good luck to you as well.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Not gonna lie the announcement of WVU to get a new coach hurts a sizable play for me. I think they play harder now that Stewart knows his fate.

BYU (-12) over UTEP
Byu has a lot of older players. The fact is they should be very happy to even have one more fame because they just started the season ice cold. Some of that is do to a freshman QB in a complex offense and other talent against them. Still Byu is going into it's bowl playing the best it has played all season. Granted Byu won some games of late against poor teams but wins are wins and they only lost to TCU and Utah in the last seven games. And they had a kick blocked or they beat Utah. Byu against UTEP well this has been all one sided. Byu is 28-7-1 against the minors and has won 25 of the last 27. Byu is used to playing in bows while UTEP not so much. Uteps last bowl was in 2005, a 30 point loss. In fact the minors have not won a bowl game since I think 1968. UTEP started the season hot but went ice cold of late. Still they have leadership at QB in Vittatoe and two solid running backs. I wonder where Vittatoe is mentally after all he did only have 10 picks on the season but eight of them came in the last six games. He is not going to find a lot of sympathy from Byu who only gives up 187 through the air 21 lowest in NCAA. Plus now that bronco has taken over the defense Byu has gone from giving up about 25 per game to around 10. He has gotten much more aggressive and expect the front seven to give a lot of different looks and bring heat from all over. Now it's not all bad for the minors because like I said they have a decent option at QB and rb. But the only true advantage I see UTEP having is at WR because they have a 6'3 kid up against a 5'6 kid. Still height means nothing if you can't use it, ask the 7 foot receiver from army. UTEP has ONE win against a team with a winning record they has an SOS of 112, that's bad. I am looking for Byu on defense to set up the offense. UTEP is better on special teams ranking 11th in kick and punt returns so Byu has to tackle well. Get them pinned back and put pressure on Vittatoe to carry this team. The minor offense is hitting about 49% on third downs so if you cut that down then UTEP will not be able to keep up. The cougars can stop them on defense, get field position and use a pretty decent loin to open holes. Keep some pressure of Heaps and as he feels more comfortable he will play better and better as the game goes on and I think that's when buy starts to pull away.

Cheers
Irish
 

OAKAS

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Great write-ups as usual, Irish.

Really like the first 2, but I can not lay that many points with BYU.

Good luck my friend. Looking forward to more of your write-ups.
 

Irish

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Thanks guys. I appreciate the kind words and that the write ups provide usable info for you. Happy holidays to you and yours!

Fresno (+3) (ML) over northern Illinois
Well first off Fresno wants to be in this game but I am not so sure about NIU. They were a nationally ranked team and in the conference championship game with high bowl expectations but Ohio put all that to bed and now they have to play this game and they don't even have the conference championship trophy. So they lost the conference, lost their ranking and now they lost their coach. Coach Kill is off to the gophers leaving the linebacker coach with no experience and only three years of coaching at the helm. Now let's look at the teams. NIU averages 38 points per game (13th in NCAA) and in the last three season games they averaged 65 per game. Those games though were against EMU, Ball st and Toledo not very strong. NIU is lead on the ground. They average 264 rushing yards per game and Chad Spann is the true play maker on this team. You slow him down and NIU is in big trouble. The NIU QB completes about 66% of his passes but he is rarely called upon to carry a team and when he was it looked a lot like that Ohio game. Fresno needs to stop the run and if they can do that it will be huge for the Fresno offense. Now the dogs get an injection with Rouse coming back. He averaged 130 yards per game and he will need to be sharp because NIU brings the 27 ranked rush defense. I day that a little younger in cheek because I think that stat is rubbish. See most teams got behind on the scoreboard and had to throw and they play IMO a poorer conference. I believe Fresno will be too powerful for them NIU is 9-15 against the WAC and over the years they have been 1-6 against Fresno but those games were many years ago. But speaking of defense freebie defense is six nationally in sacks and I think they are all over the NIU backfield all game. Yes they did suspend a starting LB but I do not think any NIU offensive lineman can contain Chris Carter and his 11 sacks this year. This game could easily go NIU way if they come in with a chip because of the coach leaving and Fresno comes in flat. I don't see that because I see Pat Hill getting his team ready for an overrated team. I am sure he will use the spread to show his team that they are an underdog to a MAC team. Fresno knows this game as they have been there three times and won the last two of them. Now personally I think the NIU huskies have a problem in the spotlight. Not only did they lose the conference championship but they have lost the last three bowl games they have played in. It seems they just come in tight and never right the ship. I think we may see that again as the COACH will also be very nervous in his first time as head coach. I am looking for Fresno to come to play, rouse happy to be back runs very hard and Colbern in his last bowl comes to lead. After all Fresno is always a scary team to play because they have potential to be great and they have potential to stink but I don't trust NIU with all that's happened plus don't forget they were 2-10 last season.

Sorry about having to reuse my eastern Washington thread but I wanted to spend more time on this game.

Cheers
Irish
 

joefrog91

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BYU came on late and UTEP faded. It's the right play. I also played Fresno St, but didn't like the news I saw today about 3 guys being suspended. Although only one is a starter.
 

Irish

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Big Joe... GL to you this bowl season and have a GREAT time at the big game. Happy holidays to you and yours!

Two totals... smaller in size

Fresno/NIU OVER 57

Troy/Ohio UNDER 58

No real write up for these. Like NIU/Fresno because they both run can break a long on and have offenses that can score high point totals. Troy/Ohio going against Public money of 87% on the over.

Cheers
Irish

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Bowl Record 2-2-1

Southern Miss (+3.5) over Louisville
This looks like a defense against offense game but both team can turn the table. See everyone knows Louisville has the 11th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. However S.Miss has a decent defense on occasion. They have created turnover in 35 of 38 games. In those games they are 21-14 with one turnover and 18-8 when they get more than one. The golden flashes have the 47th NCAA defense and 35 ranked in sacks. Both of these teams can get the other off the field. Louisville allows 39% on third down and S.Miss is allowing 33%. S.Miss does complete 49% on third down so they are more suited to keep drives going. In the redzone S.Miss allows teams to score 32/35 but they score 47/54. I don't like that stat but I do like that S.Miss gets into the redzone almost twice as much as the team they are playing. Looking at QB Davis vs Froman I give every advantage to Davis. Froman is 40 in NCAA in pass efficenty and completes 60% of passes, Davis 62% of his passes are complete. Where I think this battle is won is Davis can make a lot more happen with his feet. Davis ability to run will be a big difference in this game. This will keep plays alive and allow Boldin to make plays against two young safeties. Louisville on offense is averaging 195 passing and 180 rushing per game but S.Miss is over 200 in both. The flashes are far more balanced but Louisville behind Powell is more consistent. Powell is number ten in NCAA with 120 per game BUT on the other side freshman Hardy has 800 plus yards on just over 120 carries. Plus S.Miss has shown over the past few years to put out solid fishers behind solid rushing gameplans. This is going to be very interesting but I like the balance of S.Miss compared to the need for Louisville to run. Stack the box and force Froman to win this game and get him to cause a few turnovers and get to that 18-8 record when forcing more than one turnover. Strong is a great coach and they will have a good game plan but it is almost impossible to gameplan for a QB with the ability of Davis. You can't load the box because he can break contain you can play coverage because he can throw. I think strong will be aggressive all game and Fedoria makes him pay. This is a great offensive mind vs a great defensive mind BUT Fedoria has his players and Strong still working on it. Both teams will be very happy to be in this game. Louisville win the last game between the two. Louisvile is 4-6-1 in bowls and S.Miss us 9-11. IMO S.Miss is much mire balanced they are 13 in NCAA in offense plus they have a decent defense at times as mentioned earlier. This is a game where both come to play and I think Davis proves too much to handle. I actually like S.Miss to win this game but I'll take the points considering the redzone stats involved. The valence that helps S.Miss on offense hurts Louisville they will try to shut down Powell and it will hurt the cards productivity.

Cheers
Irish
 
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tulah

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I'm really considering unloading on UConn +17....any thought?

GL this Bowl Season:toast:
 

Irish

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Thanks Woodson. Hope the holidays are good to you.

Tulah- looking at that game I would think it is all okie all day. That being said they have been in bowls the last five years and have not covered ONE ATS. Stoops is 5-6 in bowls while edsall is 3-1. However UCONN has not come close to this type of talent in a bowl. I personally think the big east was a dumpster fire this year and in if this was a Disney movie I am sure that UConn has a shot but I can't see it. Seventeen is a lot of chalk BUT Okie if they want to play has more talent in EVERY position. With that being said I am going to wait for a few days to make sure something unexpected happens.

S.Miss/L'ville UNDER 57
Going with a small play here because of the team totals when these two played over their past games. With both teams allowing 30% conversions on third down I can see some three and outs. L'ville needs to use Powell and that's going to use clock and S.Miss also runs so that helps. Should be a good game but I think it ends S.Miss 24 L'ville 17

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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3-3-1
Honestly I am happy to win that game BUT L'ville got extremely lucky that the S.Miss special teams SUCK. Blocked FG, TD return and the fumble right before half didn't help.

Boise (-17) over Utah
Ok this is a pretty fun match-up if we are at the start of the season and we are talking about BCS busters. But now we are looking at two teams that can't be too happy to be here. Both teams in the top 25 in NCAA but Utah lucky to have hung into their spot. Really Utah has four tough games. Pitt and I'm not high on them, Byu needed a fg block to win, loss to ND and a beating to TCU. Boise did not have a tough road but I think it was harder than Utah. These two teams have been very impressive in bowls recently. Utah 9-0 and Boise 6-4 but more wind of late. Boise is 4-2 against Utah in the series. So what team comes to play, both have a lot of seniors that should want this win but Boise has to be disappointed. Boise if they come to play are the better team by a lot. They have a top five offense and defense. In fact they are 4th in s orange defense giving up 14 points per game and 4th in total defense allowing 259 yards per game. Plus they have the 3rd ranked defense against the pass. This team has a lot of talent and with as much as they show on offense (519 yards per game, 47 points per game) the defense is underrated. They get a lot of pressure on a QB considering they rank 1st in sacks with 4 a game. This is a good matchup because Utah just lost it's starting tackle Cullen and he is replaced by a sophomore. They are protecting the back up QB Cain because of Wynn shoulder injury. Now Cain has experience, he is a senior and completes about 71% in his 21 games played. That being said he has not been in game competition in a while and this is not the defense you want a rusty QB against. Now Boise gets to the QB but Utah protects pretty well. Boise gives up less than one sack per fame and Utah is 5th in the nation in the sacks allowed catagory. Can yeahs 8th ranked rush defense slow Boise down. If they can then the fact that Utah is ranked 10th in 3 and outs could get time of possession on the urea side and that's not good. Really again this can go two ways. Boise pissed that they are her and hammer utah OR Utah plays harder and this is a close game that is all about defense. Can Utah stop Boise 56% success in the redzone? I know they can stop Utah because they allow scores on only 27% of attempts. Boise can out score and hold Utah to a low number and cover because I personally think they have a ton of edge. The backup QB Utah losing 2 of the last 4 and the over inflated defensive stats of Utah. TCU showed this team is not as good as they look on paper. I just worry about motivation. That being said I think petterson rallies the troops to get behind his senior class that deserve this bowl win. Utahs seniors are used to winning and I think they have the best ranked winning percentage for any class. Still this is a neutral field where it is going to come down to talent and player for player Boise is better. I also do not think Utah has the secondary speed or experience to handle the Boise wideouts. A lot of chalk but between these two I have to go with the better team.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Thanks Cie

Boise/Utah OVER 60.5
Both teams are very proud of the defensive side of the ball. Boise did hang 33 on a good VT defense in practically a home game for the hokies. The line has moved toward the majority is liking the defense to come through. I am looking more of the offense to come through. Now I think Boise will nit be effected by the Utah defense. Remember ND, san diego st and TCU hung and big number on this defense. Again I am banking on Boise wanting to be in this game. Considering Boise is so strong percentage wise scoring in the red zone I think they will s ore with relative success. Remember guys that the Utah defense was strong last season and they did give up 30 to Oregon and 55 to TCU. I think a lot of this hype is due to teams like UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado st and San Jose st bit being very hood on offense. I think Boise scores often and Utah adds some on the mobility of Cain.

Cheers
Irish
 
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Irish

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Going LARGE here but beware... I am not sober!

Boise (-9.5) over Utah 2H

Boise (-4) over Utah 3rd quarter

I think they have the Utah offense figured out while I think there is a LOT boise is capible in second half. After all Boise did turn it over 3 times yet still has a lead.

Cheers
Irish
 
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