http://rotoexperts.com/64434/fantasy-nascar-dale-jr-is-an-elite-short-track-option/
THE TOP 15
1. Kyle Busch: He is off to a modest start this season, with just one Top 10 in three starts. Interestingly enough he?s produced a Driver Rating of over 100.0 in all three races. His production has been slightly down at Bristol, leading laps in just one of his last four starts. Last August, he started from the back of the field and fought his way to an 11[SUP]
th[/SUP]-place finish. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Busch leads all competitors in Fastest Laps Run (585). I fully expect Busch to get back on track with a win this weekend. He?s the no-brainer top play across all formats.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
101.8*
| 13.0
| 18
| 5*
| 8
| 12
| 1
| 9.9*
| 1,431
|
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2. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski?s dominant start to the season continued last weekend in Vegas with a victory on the last lap of the race. In three of his last five starts at this week?s site, Kez has posted three Top 3s and led at least 62 laps. For all you math whizzes out there: History + How He?s Currently Running = Must-Start in Tiered/Grouping format. In case you?re not a math aficionado, he hasn?t finished worse than third in any race this season and that trend will continue at Bristol.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
94.9
| 13.2
| 8
| 2
| 3
| 3
| | 14.4
| 409
|
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3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Despite running out of gas on the final lap at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Junior still had enough fumes to coast to a second-place finish. What?s interesting was his demeanor in his post-race interview: he seemed ticked off. The guy who only won twice in the last two hundred or so races is now too good for second-places finishes. That?s great news for Fantasy owners, as Junior?s renaissance season will continue at Bristol, a site where he?s led at least two laps in three of his last four starts. He leads all drivers in Green Flag Passes (1,003).
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
89.3
| 13.6
| 28
| 1
| 7
| 14
| | 11.5
| 790
|
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Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished inside the Top 2 in all three 2014 races. PHOTO CREDIT: NASCAR Media.
4. Matt Kenseth: Like the serial killer next door, Kenseth has quietly kept to himself in 2014. No flashy finishes combined with no finishes worse than 12[SUP]
th[/SUP] will do that. But he?s been a consistent force at Bristol for awhile now, leading at least 25 laps in each of his last five starts including 149 in August 2013. He leads all drivers in Average Green Flag Speed (115.129) and Quality Passes (563). Fantasy owners should view Kenseth as a safe start across all formats.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
101.8
| 10.6
| 28
| 3
| 11
| 18
| 1
| 12.5
| 1,156
|
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5. Kasey Kahne: Kahne ran a really solid race at Vegas, sneaking into the Top 10 late and ultimately finishing eighth. He?s the defending champion of his this event, starting second and leading 109 laps last March. He also finished second in the August 2013 race. Kahne?s relatively quiet start to 2014 means he?s coming at solid value in Tiered/Grouping and Salary Cap formats.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
87.9
| 17.2
| 20
| 1
| 5
| 9
| 1
| 17.4
| 456
|
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6. Jeff Gordon: All of those asterisks below are a testament to the ageless wonder?s consistent excellence over his Hall of Fame career. What makes the asterisks even more impressive is that the No. 24 is still doing it. Two Top 5s and three Top 10s (ninth at Vegas) to start 2014 is more than any Fantasy owner could ask for. He led 66 laps in this race last March and has logged two Top 5s and three Top 10s in his last five starts. He?s a safe start with upside in all formats.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
101.2
| 9.5*
| 42*
| 5*
| 16*
| 23*
| 5*
| 12.3
| 2,713*
|
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7. Jimmie Johnson: In three races this season, Johnson has an Average Finish of 5.7 and hasn?t finished worse than sixth-place. So why is he only No. 7 this week? It has less to do with the fact he finished 22[SUP]
nd[/SUP] and 36[SUP]
th[/SUP] at Bristol in the 2013. In fact, the entire No. 48 team typically has major success at tracks they struggled at the year before ? see all restrictor-plate races in 2013. It?s more to do with ? you guessed it ? saving Tiered/Grouping starts for tracks Johnson is more of a lock at. In Salary Cap leagues, I?d rather go with Kyle Busch for [close to] the same price as Johnson. All that said, he?s still a viable Fantasy option.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
91.4
| 13.2
| 24
| 1
| 7
| 13
| 1
| 15.3
| 789
|
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8. Kevin Harvick: Prior to mechanical issues that led to a 41[SUP]
st[/SUP]-place finish at Vegas, Harvick had arguably the best car on the track. It was the second week in a row the No. 4 fielded the best car out there. While Bristol is far from one of Harvick?s strong tracks, he has won there (2005) and simply cannot be overlooked in any race.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
89.8
| 13.6
| 26
| 1
| 9
| 12
| | 13.4
| 434
|
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9. Joey Logano: Sliced Challah is finally approaching those impossible-to-live-up-to expectations from his rookie season. He?s now led at least two laps in every race this season and has produced back-to-back Top 5s. While last season was easily the best of his career, Logano still struggled with consistency and season-crushing finishes (five finishes of 35[SUP]
th[/SUP]-or-worse). The confidence just seems to be there right now. Fantasy owners should get as much value out of Logano as possible before he becomes bigger news.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
77.4
| 18.5
| 10
| | 1
| 2
| 1
| 19.9
| 144
|
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10. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is a bit difficult to read three races into 2014. Since finishing second at Daytona he?s dropped to 19[SUP]
th[/SUP] (Phoenix) and 12[SUP]
th[/SUP]-place (Vegas) finishes and has been all over the track in terms of position. The talent is obviously there, but the unpredictability factor hurts his every week value. Until we see some consistency one way or the other, Fantasy owners need to consider Hamlin a risk/reward type option.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
90.3
| 14.9
| 16
| 1
| 4
| 7
| 1
| 16.1
| 492
|
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11. Carl Edwards: Edwards has progressively gotten better each week this season (17[SUP]
th[/SUP], eighth, fifth at Vegas) and has led at least one lap in every race. He hasn?t finished better than 18[SUP]
th[/SUP] in his last four starts at Bristol, so Fantasy owners should approach him with caution.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
87.7
| 15.1
| 19
| 2
| 4
| 7
| 2
| 15.9
| 464
|
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12. Paul Menard: He?s logged four straight Top 10s at Bristol and led 64 laps in the August 2013 race. His lone Top 5 at the site came in March 2011. Menard is coming off of a third-place finish and will provide off the charts value for Fantasy owners bad-ass enough to plug him into their lineups.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
73.0
| 19.0
| 13
| | 1
| 5
| | 17.7
| 100
|
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13. Greg Biffle: In 2012, The Biff led 41 laps in both Bristol races. Overall he?s been pretty consistent at the site and is worth plugging into provisional Tiered/Grouping format lineups.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
94.8
| 12.7
| 22
| | 6
| 12
| 1
| 12.0
| 438
|
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14. Ryan Newman: You gottalove the back-to-back seventh-place performances. It?s clear he?s driving with a chip on his shoulder and will continue to provide quality value across all formats for Fantasy owners on a weekly basis.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
86.6
| 15.1
| 24
| | 1
| 13
| 3
| 17.1
| 112
|
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15. Clint Bowyer: Finished 23[SUP]
rd[/SUP] last week at Vegas despite posting an 11.8 ARP. He?s simply not worth using in Tiered/Grouping formats at this point of the season.
DR
| ARP
| Starts
| Wins
| Top 5s
| Top 10s
| Poles
| Avg. Finish
| Laps Led
|
83.0
| 16.7
| 16
| | 5
| 8
| | 16.1
| 132
|
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