Info passed along by a good source.
Coverage starts on NBCSN at 12:00 pm eastern with the 4th race, switching to NBC after the Capitals game at 4:00 pm, with the Derby at 6:34 pm as the 11th race. My thoughts are below - I pick a few horses each race and will be using them all in exacta/trifecta boxes as well as pick 3's/4's, etc.
Race 4 (12:04 pm post time) - I like the #6 Cat Burglar (4-1) and #11 Bradester (5-1). Both horses like the distance and have been racing against better recently. The #2 Mordi's Miracle (20-1) is a hail mary longshot
Race 5 (12:38 pm) - Two of the favorites #6 Competitive Edge (6-5) and #2 Gimme Da Lute (7-2) have the best numbers, but at shorter distances. They both have a chance but I like #3 Hillbilly Royalty (8-1), a horse that likes this one mile distance and has run its two best races on a fast track, which tomorrow should be. #8 Peace and War (20-1) has only run twice in the US, one was great and one was terrible. If the odds stay long he could offer some value.
Race 6 (1:19 pm) - Wide open turf race for 3 year olds, most of whom have run at a similar level. I will use #4 Royal Son (5-1) who has never run on grass but has the breeding and best numbers, #3 Granny's Kitten (20-1) who has only run once but ran very well, and #10 Indianaughty (20-1) who's best race was on the grass. Could see most of em winning this race though.
Race 7 (2:08 pm) - Favorite #8 Judy the Beauty (6-5) has not run since winning a breeders cup race in November but if she's ready she wins. This race is at 7 furlongs which is kind of an odd distance, at which the #3 Dame Dorothy (9-2) is undefeated, so she is my most likely upsetter. Will also throw in the #1 Sweet Reason (5-1)
Race 8 (2:59 pm) - Most of the favorites are coming out of the same race which ended in a blanket finish. I don't have anything creative here, will go with the #4 Lady Lara (7-2) and #5 Coffee Click (3-1) from that race, as well as #11 Water Hole (12-1) who ships over from England for the race.
Race 9 (3:43 pm) - The return of Breeders Cup Classic winner #2 Bayern (1-1), who has been hurt and I will try and beat. Don't particularly like the other favorites either so will go with #5 Pants On Fire (5-1) and #6 Gentleman's Bet (10-1), both of whom have had success at Churchill Downs.
Race 10 (4:44 pm) - All long shots here for me. #1 Optimizer (12-1) comes off a layoff which has worked for him in the past, and ran one of the best races of the year last summer out of any of these. #3 Umgiyo (30-1) has been in Dubai his whole career running against the best of the best so who knows. And also like#10 Chocolate Ride (12-1) who may be the lone speed horse and loves the distance. He may be my favorite pick of the day at those odds.
Race 11 - THE DERBY (6:34 pm) - Full two hours in between races! No idea why. I think its fair to say its the best Derby field in 10+ years...lots of horses that basically never lose (the 4 favorites are a combined 17 for 19) and have basically been dominating across the country - one in California, one in Florida, one in Kentucky, and one in Arkansas.
To me it comes down to #18 American Pharaoh (5-2) vs everyone else. This feels like the triple crown horse to me. But if that doesn't happen then I like the two horses that come from Florida, #3 Materiality (12-1) and #19 (15-1). There are a lot of speed horses but I see Materiality getting the early lead, and we'll see if he can go the full mile and a quarter. Upstart has been the most consistent horse and I've been on him all year, no reason to change now. I don't mind the #19 post either with all the speed inside him. He'll keep his eye on the Pharaoh to his inside and they'll go pecker to pecker down the lane. Based on the early betting I just saw, both are well above their morning line odds, so thats good news too.
Good luck to all
Coverage starts on NBCSN at 12:00 pm eastern with the 4th race, switching to NBC after the Capitals game at 4:00 pm, with the Derby at 6:34 pm as the 11th race. My thoughts are below - I pick a few horses each race and will be using them all in exacta/trifecta boxes as well as pick 3's/4's, etc.
Race 4 (12:04 pm post time) - I like the #6 Cat Burglar (4-1) and #11 Bradester (5-1). Both horses like the distance and have been racing against better recently. The #2 Mordi's Miracle (20-1) is a hail mary longshot
Race 5 (12:38 pm) - Two of the favorites #6 Competitive Edge (6-5) and #2 Gimme Da Lute (7-2) have the best numbers, but at shorter distances. They both have a chance but I like #3 Hillbilly Royalty (8-1), a horse that likes this one mile distance and has run its two best races on a fast track, which tomorrow should be. #8 Peace and War (20-1) has only run twice in the US, one was great and one was terrible. If the odds stay long he could offer some value.
Race 6 (1:19 pm) - Wide open turf race for 3 year olds, most of whom have run at a similar level. I will use #4 Royal Son (5-1) who has never run on grass but has the breeding and best numbers, #3 Granny's Kitten (20-1) who has only run once but ran very well, and #10 Indianaughty (20-1) who's best race was on the grass. Could see most of em winning this race though.
Race 7 (2:08 pm) - Favorite #8 Judy the Beauty (6-5) has not run since winning a breeders cup race in November but if she's ready she wins. This race is at 7 furlongs which is kind of an odd distance, at which the #3 Dame Dorothy (9-2) is undefeated, so she is my most likely upsetter. Will also throw in the #1 Sweet Reason (5-1)
Race 8 (2:59 pm) - Most of the favorites are coming out of the same race which ended in a blanket finish. I don't have anything creative here, will go with the #4 Lady Lara (7-2) and #5 Coffee Click (3-1) from that race, as well as #11 Water Hole (12-1) who ships over from England for the race.
Race 9 (3:43 pm) - The return of Breeders Cup Classic winner #2 Bayern (1-1), who has been hurt and I will try and beat. Don't particularly like the other favorites either so will go with #5 Pants On Fire (5-1) and #6 Gentleman's Bet (10-1), both of whom have had success at Churchill Downs.
Race 10 (4:44 pm) - All long shots here for me. #1 Optimizer (12-1) comes off a layoff which has worked for him in the past, and ran one of the best races of the year last summer out of any of these. #3 Umgiyo (30-1) has been in Dubai his whole career running against the best of the best so who knows. And also like#10 Chocolate Ride (12-1) who may be the lone speed horse and loves the distance. He may be my favorite pick of the day at those odds.
Race 11 - THE DERBY (6:34 pm) - Full two hours in between races! No idea why. I think its fair to say its the best Derby field in 10+ years...lots of horses that basically never lose (the 4 favorites are a combined 17 for 19) and have basically been dominating across the country - one in California, one in Florida, one in Kentucky, and one in Arkansas.
To me it comes down to #18 American Pharaoh (5-2) vs everyone else. This feels like the triple crown horse to me. But if that doesn't happen then I like the two horses that come from Florida, #3 Materiality (12-1) and #19 (15-1). There are a lot of speed horses but I see Materiality getting the early lead, and we'll see if he can go the full mile and a quarter. Upstart has been the most consistent horse and I've been on him all year, no reason to change now. I don't mind the #19 post either with all the speed inside him. He'll keep his eye on the Pharaoh to his inside and they'll go pecker to pecker down the lane. Based on the early betting I just saw, both are well above their morning line odds, so thats good news too.
Good luck to all
