I plugged all the numbers into my College Football System for this game tonight and it came out as the Strongets NFL play yet with Miami giving the 6.
The range between all Predictor Systems used was just 1.28 Points, meaning the highest number Miami should be favored by was 9.87 and lowest was 8.59. There is very little range which tells me that all predictor methods are on the same page for this game. I did not add any points for home field advantage. What I came up with as and average Pointspread is:
Miami -9.04, which gives me Miami as the play with a value of 3.04 points. To find the Strength of Play rating I do two things, first I divide the Calcualted Pointspread of 9.04 points into the Range, or difference between all predictor methods which was 1.28 and I get a Rank of 7.06, this is the play ranking without the vegas spread factored in. This is the highest ranknig of the season with Tennessee being a distant 2nd yesterday at 5.44, when I factor in the vegas spread and divide the value of 3.04 points into the range of 1.28 I get 2.38, again, a very high number. At first when the line was 3 I smelled a rat, but now with the line being a number that is a little more fair with all things considered, Miami -6 is the play for me tonight. Some variables that I factored into my decision...
Miami is 22-9 ATS vs AFC WEST opps since 1992
The field looked horrible during the San Fran/ARI game yesterday with ample time to prepare for play, imagine how it will be without the time needed. This benefits Ricky Williams and the Miami O-Line in my opinion. If they can get a good push, Williams is a good enough North-South runner to be a significant factor in the outcome. Conversly, I feel the San Diego Offense is more of an East-West style. With Brees being more effective rolling out of the pocket and Tomlinson needing to cut back to make the first guy miss. A perfect example would be Marcel Shipp who had a great day versus San Fran running in between the tackles yesterday. Miami's Offense is geared more the field conditions that will be in effect tonight. It comes down to the conditions favoring the more physical team and that edge has to go to the Dolphins. I also felt that Miami -3 would have made this a bookie's game and now at -6 there should be enough money on both sides to eliminate that aspect.
Miami -6 (40 times) or 220/200
Miami 24 Sand Diego 15
This is the System's approximate Predicted Score
Actual is Miami 24.42 San Diego 15.38
The range between all Predictor Systems used was just 1.28 Points, meaning the highest number Miami should be favored by was 9.87 and lowest was 8.59. There is very little range which tells me that all predictor methods are on the same page for this game. I did not add any points for home field advantage. What I came up with as and average Pointspread is:
Miami -9.04, which gives me Miami as the play with a value of 3.04 points. To find the Strength of Play rating I do two things, first I divide the Calcualted Pointspread of 9.04 points into the Range, or difference between all predictor methods which was 1.28 and I get a Rank of 7.06, this is the play ranking without the vegas spread factored in. This is the highest ranknig of the season with Tennessee being a distant 2nd yesterday at 5.44, when I factor in the vegas spread and divide the value of 3.04 points into the range of 1.28 I get 2.38, again, a very high number. At first when the line was 3 I smelled a rat, but now with the line being a number that is a little more fair with all things considered, Miami -6 is the play for me tonight. Some variables that I factored into my decision...
Miami is 22-9 ATS vs AFC WEST opps since 1992
The field looked horrible during the San Fran/ARI game yesterday with ample time to prepare for play, imagine how it will be without the time needed. This benefits Ricky Williams and the Miami O-Line in my opinion. If they can get a good push, Williams is a good enough North-South runner to be a significant factor in the outcome. Conversly, I feel the San Diego Offense is more of an East-West style. With Brees being more effective rolling out of the pocket and Tomlinson needing to cut back to make the first guy miss. A perfect example would be Marcel Shipp who had a great day versus San Fran running in between the tackles yesterday. Miami's Offense is geared more the field conditions that will be in effect tonight. It comes down to the conditions favoring the more physical team and that edge has to go to the Dolphins. I also felt that Miami -3 would have made this a bookie's game and now at -6 there should be enough money on both sides to eliminate that aspect.
Miami -6 (40 times) or 220/200
Miami 24 Sand Diego 15
This is the System's approximate Predicted Score
Actual is Miami 24.42 San Diego 15.38
