took a few days off, didnt really have any interest in games yesterday.
Miami -6.5
On paper this line looks like it should be a little lower, but its tough to lay money on a team w/o its signal caller. Many bowl team's chances have been ruined by a QB injury in the preceding game or in the bowl game itself. Lean to the UNDER as well, but an inexperienced QB could make costly mistakes that set up short fields for Miami. Also, pretty heavy action on the UNDER and no movement tells me the books are reluctant to deviate from the 41. I'm gonna watch the line and make a call later, if I play the total at all
Northwestern/UCLA OVER 74.5
I've been waiting for this game since the lines came out. This high total is BEGGING for some under money, and I think alot of folks have been reluctant to expect 30+ per team in this spot, but I see this game goin over 80 easily. I think Northwestern's defense got worse and worse as the season progressed, and UCLA never had one from the start. These two average 68 PPG combined, and feature two of the worst defenses in division 1A, giving up a combined 67 PPG.
I look at this game and ask myself, not HOW will all those points get scored, but HOW are these teams going to stop one another? NW allows 8 yards per pass play, almost a freakin first down, and OVER 200 yards rushing per game!! UCLA has a better pass defense than the wildcats, and I think that will give them the edge in the game, but they allow over 5 yards per carry on the ground, and low and behold, NW averages OVER 5 yards per carry rushing. Look for alot of big rushing plays to counter the bruin's passing attack.
Minnesota -6
This was the toughest game for me to cap today. Minnesota beat up on some smaller squads, CSU and Tulsa earlier this season, but besides the Michigan win, I'm not impressed with their BIG TEN play. They played WELL against the big dogs, but didnt BEAT any of those dogs. The way they play defense, no lead is safe, but lets face it, Minnie faced better offenses all season long than this UVA attack they will see today. This total is set at 60 points as well. I dont see how the game gets anywhere NEAR that high, unless minnesota scores over 40 points. If they could get 31 against OSU, I think they can get close to 40 today against UVA. The key matchup will be UVA's offense against a soft Minnie defense. This minnesota defense has been downright SCARY at times this season: allowing 52 to Iowa, 45 to OSU, and 35 to PURDUE!! Like I said though, better offenses than the Cavs offense they face today.
Minnie pull this one out, 37-27. Lean to the OVER, but too close to call.
SMALL PARLAY on this final game. Missouri +4.5/UNDER 51.
Heavy heavy action on the gamecocks, but I see the line moving downward at some places? Hmmmmm. I dont think Mizzou wins this one outright, but I see an ugly low scoring affair. South carolina barely has the weapons to win, let alone cover more than a FG. Lets face it, USC went 2-2 in road games this season. The two wins, at Tennessee and at Arkansas were by a combined 5 points!! Missouri didnt do CHITE on the road either, and thats why I like the UNDER in this one. 19-17 South Carolina pulls the ole' win but dont cover stunt. See: Nevada
GL all
Miami -6.5
On paper this line looks like it should be a little lower, but its tough to lay money on a team w/o its signal caller. Many bowl team's chances have been ruined by a QB injury in the preceding game or in the bowl game itself. Lean to the UNDER as well, but an inexperienced QB could make costly mistakes that set up short fields for Miami. Also, pretty heavy action on the UNDER and no movement tells me the books are reluctant to deviate from the 41. I'm gonna watch the line and make a call later, if I play the total at all
Northwestern/UCLA OVER 74.5
I've been waiting for this game since the lines came out. This high total is BEGGING for some under money, and I think alot of folks have been reluctant to expect 30+ per team in this spot, but I see this game goin over 80 easily. I think Northwestern's defense got worse and worse as the season progressed, and UCLA never had one from the start. These two average 68 PPG combined, and feature two of the worst defenses in division 1A, giving up a combined 67 PPG.
I look at this game and ask myself, not HOW will all those points get scored, but HOW are these teams going to stop one another? NW allows 8 yards per pass play, almost a freakin first down, and OVER 200 yards rushing per game!! UCLA has a better pass defense than the wildcats, and I think that will give them the edge in the game, but they allow over 5 yards per carry on the ground, and low and behold, NW averages OVER 5 yards per carry rushing. Look for alot of big rushing plays to counter the bruin's passing attack.
Minnesota -6
This was the toughest game for me to cap today. Minnesota beat up on some smaller squads, CSU and Tulsa earlier this season, but besides the Michigan win, I'm not impressed with their BIG TEN play. They played WELL against the big dogs, but didnt BEAT any of those dogs. The way they play defense, no lead is safe, but lets face it, Minnie faced better offenses all season long than this UVA attack they will see today. This total is set at 60 points as well. I dont see how the game gets anywhere NEAR that high, unless minnesota scores over 40 points. If they could get 31 against OSU, I think they can get close to 40 today against UVA. The key matchup will be UVA's offense against a soft Minnie defense. This minnesota defense has been downright SCARY at times this season: allowing 52 to Iowa, 45 to OSU, and 35 to PURDUE!! Like I said though, better offenses than the Cavs offense they face today.
Minnie pull this one out, 37-27. Lean to the OVER, but too close to call.
SMALL PARLAY on this final game. Missouri +4.5/UNDER 51.
Heavy heavy action on the gamecocks, but I see the line moving downward at some places? Hmmmmm. I dont think Mizzou wins this one outright, but I see an ugly low scoring affair. South carolina barely has the weapons to win, let alone cover more than a FG. Lets face it, USC went 2-2 in road games this season. The two wins, at Tennessee and at Arkansas were by a combined 5 points!! Missouri didnt do CHITE on the road either, and thats why I like the UNDER in this one. 19-17 South Carolina pulls the ole' win but dont cover stunt. See: Nevada
GL all
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