IN GAME THREAD Jets at Colts - Get your pregame thoughts in here too!

[MadJack]

I'm probably going to watch this game. :0003


Check this shit out!


Problem with a hedge is that I am down -$2945 for the week.


Decisions - Decisions

STRONG lean to letting it ride.
Next option is betting $1200/$1000 to cover my investment plus a little.

What would you do?

Ticket#:11109035 Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 21 05:30 PM	INTERNET / -1	Sep 20 05:03 AM	NFL NFL	2 TEAS 6,6?,7 FB 4,4?,5 BK [266] PITTSBURGH STEELERS -?-105 (B+6) [290] INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1EV (B+6)	550 / 500
Ticket#:11109045 Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 21 05:30 PM	INTERNET / -1	Sep 20 05:05 AM	NFL NFL NFL NFL	PARLAY (4 TEAMS) [262] CAROLINA PANTHERS -3-105 [266] PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6?-105 [269] NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +1-115 [290] INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7EV	300 / 3975

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Fucking sloppy ass Ravens coaching once again. The defensive game plan and play calling was horrible. Offense play calling not so bad and they played decently. Harbaugh is the most over-rated coach in the NFL and that call in the 1st quarter down 10-0 and going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 30 was insane! Although they did make it. I only needed the Ravens to win the game having several teasers and a ML par but since they lost on the final drive once again they cost me $1740. :facepalm:

Anyway, that's my rant for the day.

With the consensus at WL the public of 65% and higher went 1-6.

8 ML dogs covered and won outright yesterday. In the 3 years I've run the ML Dog contest I don't remember there ever being 8 outright ML Dog winners in one week and there's still one game to play.

The NFL Weekly ATS Contest still has to be graded from Week 1. :facepalm: I screwed up my spread sheet and took forever to get straightened out. I have no clue with excel. Anyway, that will be graded and completely caught up by Wednesday. The other 2 will be graded and standings posted in the morning.

Have a great week. :0008

 

[IE]

Good luck Jack whatever you decide...

Pros:


The Indy Colts face the New York Jets in their season home opener. The Jets are coming off a 31-10 win over the Browns in week 1 while the Colts took a 13 point loss to the Bills on the road.

The Colts are known for getting off to a slow start to the season as they have lost 5 of their last 6 season openers with all losses coming on the road. It?s easy to want to overreact to week 1 here and jump on the Jets getting the points but I think the Colts will cover in this game. The Jets will likely be without CB Antonio Cromartie due to a knee injury. This will give Colts? QB Andrew Luck a little more breathing room in the passing attack.

The Colts are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss plus 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Monday games. The Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 September games.


Cons:

The Jets? defensive front seven is every bit as malicious as that of the Bills, and their secondary is even better. So what?s to stop New York from copying its divisional rivals? defensive approach and blitzing Andrew Luck into ineffectiveness?

 

[SixFive]

I don't think I would hedge. Hedging conceded a losing week. Standing pat, maybe u have a winning week. Maybe an in game play?

 

[The Joker]

Fucking sloppy ass Ravens coaching once again.

Wonder when this will change.....their play calling is college level right now.

 

[IE]

Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton will be active for Monday's game against the Jets.

 

[IE]

HOW THEY'LL WIN

Jets: Expect the Jets to go with the same blueprint as last week against Cleveland, when veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick made a lot of short, quick throws to neutralize the pass rush while mixing in a more adventurous pass here and there. RB Chris Ivory (groin) is listed as questionable, but is expected to play. Still, the Jets probably will mix in backup Bilal Powell even more than they did last week. The defense needs to make Andrew Luck feel uncomfortable in the pocket, much the way Buffalo did in its win over Indy.

Colts: Buffalo held the Colts to 64 yards rushing last week, and the Colts again could have problems running the ball against the Jets? excellent front line. So the burden figures to fall on Luck. If Hilton plays, he at the very least could be a decoy and help create opportunities for Johnson and TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. The Jets? linebacking corps still is vulnerable in coverage, so look for Luck to take advantage of those matchups. The defense, which had no sacks last week, needs to pressure Fitzpatrick.

 

[grunwald]

If I were in your shoes, I would trust that the money is in the right spot and Let It Ride!!! Colts are at home. Jets don't have much of an offense. Luck doesn't take well to losing, especially back to back.

 

[Randercity]

I would hedge...

I would hedge...

But I do stuff different than most.... Being down that much you can make it a winning week with the Colts winning by 8 or more. What if you do this:


3 Team 10 Pt Teaser $1300 to win $1000

Jets +16.5
OVER 34.5 or Under 54.5
Bengals +12.5 vs Ravens

If Colts win by 8 to 16 and you guess right on Total, you'll still come out $1500 ahead and have a huge bet on a live dog. I can see Cinc being favored or at pick by game time, so you can bet your Ravens then.

If Colts lose, well instead of down $3795, you'll have this teaser alive to get back $1000. I was looking to tease to the Under, but with the line dropping so much, I can see Over 34.5 as the play. Indy will score at least 20, likely 27 or more. Jets would need only 8 to hit 35.

Hilton is playing, Indy has no run game, Jets great run defense, all adds up to 50+ attempts by Luck. Jets Ivory is dinged up, so they likely will pass more, and if Luck is on, JETS wont have a choice but to pass...

Good luck!! :toast:

 

[airportis]

I have the Colts under 27 and I am pretty damn confident they will not score that many. A huge play for me.

I think they will win but the Jets are a lot tougher than made out to be.

Colts will not be able to run the ball and Luck is not going to pass all over them with an old fart, a injured TY, and a couple tight ends. And going against the best DB in the league.

Fitzpatrick is a good enough game manager to keep the Jets close. He can make the safe throws and Ivory will be able to chip away at the Colt defense. Jets should be able to milk some clock and keep it out of Luck's hands. Really love the U 27 play tonight.

GL to everyone with what they play.

 

[william13]

hedge get out of hole and live another day .. till colts o-line show life i would not risk a big loss with them .. g/l

 

[zoomer]

If I was stuck 3 dimes, I'd let it ride

 

[gardenweasel]

I'm probably going to watch this game. :0003


Check this shit out!


Problem with a hedge is that I am down -$2945 for the week.


Decisions - Decisions

STRONG lean to letting it ride.
Next option is betting $1200/$1000 to cover my investment plus a little.

What would you do?

Ticket#:11109035 Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 21 05:30 PM	INTERNET / -1	Sep 20 05:03 AM	NFL NFL	2 TEAS 6,6?,7 FB 4,4?,5 BK [266] PITTSBURGH STEELERS -?-105 (B+6) [290] INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1EV (B+6)	550 / 500
Ticket#:11109045 Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 20 10:03 AM Sep 21 05:30 PM	INTERNET / -1	Sep 20 05:05 AM	NFL NFL NFL NFL	PARLAY (4 TEAMS) [262] CAROLINA PANTHERS -3-105 [266] PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6?-105 [269] NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +1-115 [290] INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7EV	300 / 3975

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Fucking sloppy ass Ravens coaching once again. The defensive game plan and play calling was horrible. Offense play calling not so bad and they played decently. Harbaugh is the most over-rated coach in the NFL and that call in the 1st quarter down 10-0 and going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 30 was insane! Although they did make it. I only needed the Ravens to win the game having several teasers and a ML par but since they lost on the final drive once again they cost me $1740. :facepalm:

Anyway, that's my rant for the day.

With the consensus at WL the public of 65% and higher went 1-6.

8 ML dogs covered and won outright yesterday. In the 3 years I've run the ML Dog contest I don't remember there ever being 8 outright ML Dog winners in one week and there's still one game to play.

The NFL Weekly ATS Contest still has to be graded from Week 1. :facepalm: I screwed up my spread sheet and took forever to get straightened out. I have no clue with excel. Anyway, that will be graded and completely caught up by Wednesday. The other 2 will be graded and standings posted in the morning.

Have a great week. :0008

jack....I`m usually a calm game watcher......but this had me looking around for something to break at the end of the 1st half.....at the end of the 1st half,we`d stopped Oakland on a drive and a raider fg was upcoming...there was well over 2 and a half minutes left on the clock before halftime(2:51 to be exact at the time the raiders` 3rd down play started).......we had 3 timeouts and the pending 2 minute warning......why in hell didn`t harbaugh call an immediate timeout stopping the clock at the 2:35/2:40 mark after Oakland`s failed 3rd down attempt?.........we would have saved 35 important seconds and we still have 2 timeouts and the 2 minute warning remaining......

raiders had a 3rd and 10 with 2:51 left on the clock at the raven 32...carr threw a 4 yard completion to the 28 and the play didn`t take long....we didn`t call a timeout to save as much time as possible for our last possession before the half...the fg was kicked at the 2:04 mark and that kick ran into the 2 minute warning......


we lost somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40 seconds which may well have been the difference between a td and a field goal in that situation(we still had the 2 minute warning in lieu of the timeout we would have used to stop the clock) to end the half...we kicked our field goal to end the half because we ran out of time,not downs(we had a 1st and goal at the oakland 3 with 3 seconds left)..........and we went into halftime with a timeout in our pocket...



that`s flat out terrible clock mgmt. and may well have cost us 4 points(the diff between losing and overtime)....I was screaming at the t.v. screen for harbaugh to call timeout after the failed Oakland 3rd down attempt(something I never do) and the better half actually came in to ask what was wrong...lol

these games can be decided by the little things...a coach has to have his head in the game....x05:

 

[Nole]

But that's just me.

 

[MadJack]

jack....I`m usually a calm game watcher......but this had me looking around for something to break at the end of the 1st half.....at the end of the 1st half,we`d stopped Oakland on a drive and a raider fg was upcoming...there was well over 2 and a half minutes left on the clock before halftime(2:51 to be exact at the time the raiders` 3rd down play started).......we had 3 timeouts and the pending 2 minute warning......why in hell didn`t harbaugh call an immediate timeout stopping the clock at the 2:35/2:40 mark after Oakland`s failed 3rd down attempt?.........we would have saved 35 important seconds and we still have 2 timeouts and the 2 minute warning remaining......

raiders had a 3rd and 10 with 2:51 left on the clock at the raven 32...carr threw a 4 yard completion to the 28 and the play didn`t take long....we didn`t call a timeout to save as much time as possible for our last possession before the half...the fg was kicked at the 2:04 mark and that kick ran into the 2 minute warning......


we lost somewhere in the vicinity of 35-40 seconds which may well have been the difference between a td and a field goal in that situation(we still had the 2 minute warning in lieu of the timeout we would have used to stop the clock) to end the half...we kicked our field goal to end the half because we ran out of time,not downs(we had a 1st and goal at the oakland 3 with 3 seconds left)..........and we went into halftime with a timeout in our pocket...



that`s flat out terrible clock mgmt. and may well have cost us 4 points(the diff between losing and overtime)....I was screaming at the t.v. screen for harbaugh to call timeout after the failed Oakland 3rd down attempt(something I never do) and the better half actually came in to ask what was wrong...lol

these games can be decided by the little things...a coach has to have his head in the game....x05:

Mostly Harbaugh decisions. I just don't get it, he makes the most bone headed decisions of any coach I've ever seen. We were doing the same thing at the end of the first half. He had all 3 timeouts and should have used some or 1 before the ones he did use. It was horrible. At the beginning of that drive I think he was just trying to use up the clock and go to half but we got that nice gainer and he was forced to try and score. Sheese! We've thrown away 2 games so far. Two games that were ours to lose and we did lose. UGH! We'll win Sunday and then the Steelers will totally crush us on Thursday night.

 

[greggraffin]

let it ride!

 

[gardenweasel]

Mostly Harbaugh decisions. I just don't get it, he makes the most bone headed decisions of any coach I've ever seen. We were doing the same thing at the end of the first half. He had all 3 timeouts and should have used some or 1 before the ones he did use. It was horrible. At the beginning of that drive I think he was just trying to use up the clock and go to half but we got that nice gainer and he was forced to try and score. Sheese! We've thrown away 2 games so far. Two games that were ours to lose and we did lose. UGH! We'll win Sunday and then the Steelers will totally crush us on Thursday night.

I was talking about the end of the 1st half...

if we win 1 of the next two,we`re still in the hunt....our early schedule is sickeningly difficult with the first 5 out of 7 on the road(thanks nfl)...but the second half is very doable....

don`t throw in the towel just yeat....maybe we`re around .500 at the halfway point...........if we are we have hope.....but,we don`t have ngata,suggs,mcphhe,torrey smith and owen daniels any longer....maybe perriman comes back and makes an impact...

it ain`t over yet...

I`m out,,,didn`t mean to confiscate the Monday night thread...

 

[MadJack]

Cleveland gave the Jets 21 points off turnovers last week otherwise the perception of the Jets might not be what it is. FIVE turnovers. 4 fumbles and 1 interception. The 3 turnovers that led to points were 2 plays, 5 plays and 4 plays to score after getting the ball. Another turnover was a fumble in the endzone. Browns should have won the game. I'm sticking to all in. Fuck it, if I lose, I lose, but I took my shot.

What would the book want me to do?

If the Colts get off to a quick lead I might hedge at +12 or better, for my $850 I have invested. I feel pretty safe with my Colts -1 $550/$500.

Hopefully I'm not pissed off at myself after the game, or even mid way into it.

I don't say this very often. GO COLTS!

 

[MadJack]

I was talking about the end of the 1st half...

if we win 1 of the next two,we`re still in the hunt....our early schedule is sickeningly difficult with the first 5 out of 7 on the road(thanks nfl)...but the second half is very doable....

don`t throw in the towel just yeat....maybe we`re around .500 at the halfway point...........if we are we have hope.....but,we don`t have ngata,suggs,mcphhe,torrey smith and owen daniels any longer....maybe perriman comes back and makes an impact...

it ain`t over yet...

I`m out,,,didn`t mean to confiscate the Monday night thread...

I was talking end of 1H too.

And I don't throw in the towel. We're gonna start the season off 2-3 when it should have been 4-1.

 

[Franchise_Davis]

Anything is better than last weeks Vikings/9ers game

 

[Snafu]

well...

1st half
Jets +3? and ml +175
O23

FT
O45?

:0002