Missouri at Nevada

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Missouri at Nevada

The smell of revenge will be thick in the Reno air Friday night as the Missouri Tigers come to town to take on Nevada. The Wolf Pack will be hoping to avenge a humiliating 69-17 loss in Columbia last year.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Missouri (3-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) as a 7 ?-point favorite. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Tigers favored by either seven or 7 ?. A few books had the total at 59, while bettors can expect to see Nevada (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) at plus-240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240).

?We opened at 7 ? and went up to eight because 99 percent of our action has been on Missouri,? betED.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Scott told . ?But after a market move, we also lowered the number to minus seven. We actually like Nevada?s chances at home in this one, so we?ll let the action continue at Missouri minus seven.?

Chris Ault?s team came into the year with expectations galore thanks to the return of junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who was the WAC?s Offensive Player of the Year when he rushed for 17 touchdowns and threw for 22 more last season. However, Ault?s ?Pistol Offense? and Kaepernick?s effectiveness has been slowed considerably in a pair of season-opening losses.




?I don?t know if Nevada head coach Chris Ault has been very smart this off-season,? Manos said. ?He?s been making the rounds at coaching clinics explaining his offense to other coaches. Defensive coordinators also have more film to study and they are starting to figure out how to attack the Pistol offense.?

Notre Dame certainly had the Wolf Pack?s style figured out when it dealt out cream-cheese treatment in Week 1. The Irish gave Nevada a bagel in a 35-0 win as a 14-point home ?chalk.?

After an open date, Nevada went to Ft. Collins and lost 35-20 to Colorado St. as a 3 ?-point road favorite. The Wolf Pack, which was still scoreless when it trailed the Rams 14-0 at intermission, couldn?t overcome five costly turnovers.

Nevada finally scored its first points of the year when Vai Taua, the WAC?s leading rusher in 2008, found paydirt on a 31-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Trailing 35-6, Taua scored again in the final stanza on a two-yard TD run.

Taua?s running production hasn't been the issue, as he?s averaging 6.5 yards per carry (32 carries, 209 rushing yards). The problem has been Kaepernick, who had an outstanding 22/7 touchdown-interception ratio in ?08. This year he has been intercepted four times already and has just one TD pass at garbage time in the loss at CSU.

?Handicappers have to make adjustments in September because some teams don?t live up their preseason billing, while others are pleasant surprises,? ?Missouri and Nevada are perfect examples as I had this game circled a few months ago, thinking the Wolf Pack?s high-powered offense could outpace a Tigers team reeling from personnel losses to the NFL. Now? Nevada is only averaging 10 points per game and Mizzou is off to a flying 3-0 start. Go figure?and watch out Wolf Pack.?

Gary Pinkel?s team was certainly dismissed by nearly every preseason publication following the departures of standout players like Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman and William Moore. But the Tigers look like legit Big 12 contenders through three games.

Missouri continued its dominance against Illinois in its season opener, spanking the Illini by a 37-9 count as a seven-point underdog. The Tigers hooked up money-line backers with a tasty plus-240 payout in that spot.

Next, Pinkel?s bunch had somewhat of a letdown, needing to rally past Bowling Green for a 27-20 home win. The Tigers failed to cover the number as 18-point home favorites against the Falcons. Last week they disposed of Furman early and often in a 52-12 victory in a non-lined matchup.

Daniel?s replacement Blaine Gabbert has been nothing short of sensational. The true sophomore has completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 748 yards with an eye-opening 8/0 touchdown-interception ratio. A pair of senior wide receivers, Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, have stepped in nicely for Maclin and Tommy Saunders, who had 72 receptions in ?08.

Perry has 17 catches for 309 yards and four TDs. That?s good for an average of 18.2 yards per reception. Alexander has 20 grabs for 234 yards and a pair of TDs.

With both teams playing on a short week of preparation, the visiting team is usually at a disadvantage since it has to travel. However, Pinkel has refuted any such notion this week.

He told Power Mizzou.com, ?I don't think it's a headache. It's kind of like Monday Night Football. It's the only game in town. Only game in the country."

ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday night.



--Missouri owns a 7-0-1 SU record against WAC foes.

--Missouri is tied with Auburn at No. 30 in this week?s LVSC rankings.

--Missouri has won 25 of its 31 games outright since the start of the 2007 campaign.

--As a road favorite under Pinkel, the Tigers are 7-10-1 ATS. However, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six such situations.

--Colorado St. is 3-0 for the first time in 15 years.

--Penn St. stud linebacker Sean Lee is ?questionable? Saturday vs. Iowa with a sprained knee.

--Just like USC fell into a classic letdown spot when it played at Washington a week removed from winning in comeback fashion at Ohio St., the Huskies find themselves in the same scenario Saturday at Stanford. Steve Sarkisian?s team was a healthy seven-point underdog as of Wednesday.
 

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Nevada Wolf Pack vs Missouri Tigers

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Missouri Tigers

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Missouri Tigers

Game Time: 9:00 p.m. EDT Friday, September 25

Stadium: Mackay Stadium Surface: Grass




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Missouri Tigers HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 2 - 0 1 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1
Last 5 games 2 - 0 1 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1
YTD vs. Conf. 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Nevada Wolf Pack HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2
Last 5 games 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2
YTD vs. Conf. 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Missouri Tigers 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0
Nevada Wolf Pack 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Missouri Tigers
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat @IL 37 - 9 W +5.5 +7 W 35 61 59 U -13.0 T
09/12/09 Sat BG 27 - 20 W -17 -20 L -13 0 0 O +-47.0 G
09/19/09 Sat FUR 52 - 12 W 0 0 W 40 0 0 O +-64.0 G


Nevada Wolf Pack
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat @ND 0 - 35 L +17 +15 L -20 58.5 61 U -26.0 G
09/19/09 Sat @COST 20 - 35 L -3 -4 L -19 57.5 57.5 U -2.5 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/08 Sat NV 17 MO 69 -25.0 -26.5 MO +25.5 63.0 69.0 O +-17 G




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
MO (off) 37.0 21 37 117 3.2 35 26 0.7 325 9.3 442 0.0 0.0
NV (def)
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
MO (def) 9.0 18 35 110 3.1 37 22 0.6 215 5.8 325 1.0 1.0
NV (off)
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
MO (off) 38.7 24 39 165 4.2 34 23 0.7 275 8.1 440 0.0 0.7
NV (def) 35.0 21 41 179 4.4 21 14 0.7 261 12.4 440 0.0 0.0
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
MO (def) 13.7 19 33 106 3.2 41 25 0.6 242 5.9 348 0.7 0.7
NV (off) 10.0 19 30 161 5.4 33 19 0.6 203 6.2 364 2.0 2.0



SCORING AVERAGES:

Missouri Tigers (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 10.0 6.0 16 14.0 7.0 0.0 21
POINTS ALLOWED 0.0 3.0 3 0.0 6.0 0.0 6



Nevada Wolf Pack (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR
POINTS ALLOWED



Missouri Tigers (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.0 13.3 21.3 9.3 8.0 0.0 17.3
POINTS ALLOWED 3.3 2.0 5.3 4.3 4.0 0.0 8.3



Nevada Wolf Pack (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 0.0 0.0 0 3.0 7.0 0.0 10
POINTS ALLOWED 10.5 10.5 21 7.0 7.0 0.0 14



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Missouri Tigers 54.5 -5.0
Nevada Wolf Pack 45.5 2.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 51 UNKNOWN
 

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Underdog Wolf Pack need help and defense

Underdog Wolf Pack need help and defense

Underdog Wolf Pack need help and defense

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno.

Offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bendand much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame?s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in next two games.
Nevada?s pass defense was the worst in the FBS last season and there wasn?t much reason to believe they were going to be a whole lot better in 2009, unless the front seven could rush the passer better and stop the run with greater aplomb. After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn?t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as offense coach and his offense has been offensive in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn?t shown the same accuracy as before and been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS) who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding a little Paladin 52-12, (Furman?s nickname) Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Nevada. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He?s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

Sportsbook.com has Missouri as 7.5-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and want to make good on national TV after Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada?s biggest issue is going to be stopping Tigers attack and they are only 1-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern.
 

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What bettors need to know: Missouri at Nevada

What bettors need to know: Missouri at Nevada

What bettors need to know: Missouri at Nevada

Missouri Tigers at Nevada Wolf Pack (+7, 61)

Are you for real?

A lot of people expected Missouri to take a giant step back after losing a number of key players from last year?s 10-4 team. They lost their schools all-time leading passer, their All-American WR, and Mackey Award winning TE. They also lost seven All-Big 12 players on the defensive side of the ball.

Despite all of the personnel losses, Missouri is off to a 3-0 start. Of course the Tigers have played a fairly easy schedule with wins against Illinois, Bowling Green and Furman.

Friday?s road date at Nevada should give us a better idea of just how good Mizzou is this year.

Desperation time

Nevada had high hopes entering the season. They returned a bevy of starters from a year ago and had, what looked like, a pretty favorable schedule. But the Wolf Pack are 0-2 to start the season after losing two road games to Notre Dame and Colorado State.

The Wolf Pack allowed 69 points and 651 total yards in a loss at Missouri last year and were thoroughly embarrassed. The Tigers could be vulnerable in their first road test of the season and it?s a great opportunity for Nevada, with a national audience, to pull off the upset.

Nevada usually offers value when playing in Reno (19-8 ATS at home since 2004) and this is the team?s first home game of the season. If the Pack get on track and start a winning streak, their final game versus Boise State could determine the WAC Champion.

Quarterback sneak

Blaine Gabbert was named the starter to replace Chase Daniel at Missouri and he started the season right where Daniel left off. The sophomore has completed over 68 percent of his passes for 747 yards and eight touchdowns with no picks. He has also rushed for 95 yards and 2 scores. Again, Missouri hasn?t played any top tier defenses so far, but those are still impressive numbers.

Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick was last year?s WAC offensive player of the year, throwing for 22 touchdowns and rushing for 17 more. He?s got off to a slow start, throwing for just one touchdown against four interceptions. The success of Nevada rides on his shoulders and the team needs him to get on track.

Where?s the D?

Missouri has allowed 348 yards per game (242 passing/ 106 rushing). The Tigers have been opportunistic though, getting key stops and only allowing 13.7 points per game.

Nevada?s sieve-like D is allowing 440 yards per game (261 passing/ 179 rushing) and 35 points per game. The WAC team has played better opponents than Missouri and both games have been on the road.

Trends

Missouri is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite. The Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and also 7-0-1 ATS their last eight vs. current WAC teams.

Nevada is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games and 4-1 ATS in its past five Friday night games. But the Wolf Pack are just 0-4 straight up and against the spread versus the Big 12, including losses to Missouri and Texas Tech last year. They have been outscored 52-15 on average in their last three matchups against the Big 12.

Line movement

The line opened with Missouri -7.5 and the total at 59. It rose to -8 before dropping back down to -7. The total quickly rose to from 59 to 60 and is now set at 61 points.

Weather

Almost perfect playing conditions in Reno for Friday night. The forecast is clear and warm for Friday afternoon, with lows in the upper 50s/ lower 60s for later Friday night. No rain or foul weather is expected.
 

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College football cheat sheet: Week 4

College football cheat sheet: Week 4

College football cheat sheet: Week 4

No. 1 Florida at Kentucky (+21.5, 53.5)

When Florida covers: The Gators have won 22 consecutive in this series with an average margin of victory of 28.8 in the past 15.

Why Kentucky covers: UK has three small advantages: It?s UF?s first road game, the Gators are likely to suffer a bit of a letdown off the hyped game with Tennessee and apparently the flu is ravaging UF this week.

UTEP at No. 2 Texas (-36, 62.5)

Why Texas covers: The Longhorns are 25-1 against non-conference teams since the start of the 2004 season, while UTEP has dropped 10 in a row to ranked teams and has just three wins against Top 25 clubs all-time.

Why UTEP covers: The Miners only lost by 29 last year (although that was at home), and maybe they can get a few picks off UT?s Colt McCoy; the 2008 Heisman runner-up already has four this year - half as many as his season total a year ago.

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama (-17.5, 58)

Why Arkansas covers: QB Ryan Mallett looks like he?s the real deal for the Hogs. He?s the nation?s top-rated passer and Arkansas has the No. 2 offense in the country. The Razorbacks are 10-for-10 in red zone offense.

Why ?Bama covers: Alabama?s defense, No. 3 overall in the nation, is talented enough to slow down the Hogs. The d-unit is tied for the SEC lead in sacks.

Iowa at No. 4 Penn State (-9.5, 40)

Why Iowa covers: Coach Kirk Ferentz is 3-1 straight up against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-3 against the spread this season despite sporting a 3-0 straight up mark.

Why Penn State: Despite the team?s ATS struggles, Penn State has dominated each of its opponents and appears to be head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten.

No. 6 Cal at Oregon (+5.5, 57.5)

Why Cal covers: Tailback Jahvid Best, possibly the leading Heisman candidate right now, averages a conference-best 137.3 rushing yards per game and scored five times against the Gophers last week.

Why Oregon covers: The Ducks? ground game seems to be adjusting to life without LeGarrette Blount. After rushing for 31 yards at Boise State, the Ducks ran for 193 in a win against Purdue and 217 in last week?s upset of Utah.

No. 7 LSU at Mississippi State (+12.5, 43.5)

Why LSU covers: The Tigers have won nine straight against Mississippi State, including last year's 34-24 victory. During that winning streak, LSU has outscored the Bulldogs 374-105.

Why Mississippi State covers: MSU went 1-22 against ranked teams from 2001 through the middle of the 2007 season but has turned things around since. The team has won three of its past six against ranked foes.

No. 8 Boise State at Bowling Green (+16.5, 50.5)

Why Boise State covers: The Broncos have only lost to one unranked, non-BCS team since 2002 and beat Bowling Green 20-7 last year. Their running attack averages nearly 200 yards per game, and the Falcons gave up 181 yards rushing in a loss at Missouri and 246 yards rushing in a loss at Marshall.

Why Bowling Green covers: The Falcons must feel a little better about things after watching the Boise defense allow 34 points and three long touchdown runs last week at Fresno State. Plus the Broncos lost leading rusher D.J. Harper for the season.

Washington State at No. 10 Southern Cal (-45, 54)

Why Washington State covers: USC offense is nowhere near as potent as years past. The Trojans will be starting a true freshman with a bum shoulder and in case you didn?t know, 45 is a lot of points to give.

Why USC covers: The Trojans figure to take out last week?s frustrations on the Cougars, whom USC beat 69-0 last year. Wazzu lost top running back James Montgomery for the season with a leg injury and is last in the Pac-10 in defense.

Illinois at No. 11 Ohio State (-14, 49.5)

Why Illinois covers: Juice Williams and the Illini have given OSU problems. Last year Illinois lost by just 10, while two seasons ago they upset the No. 1 Buckeyes in Columbus. Plus Illinois was off last week, giving it more time to prepare and get healthy (Williams and WR Arrelious Benn, among others, were banged up).

Why Ohio State covers: QB Terrelle Pryor is coming off the best game of his career. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents 151-40 in their past four conference openers. OSU gets back its No. 1 punter after he sat out last week with the flu.

No. 13 Miami at No. 12 Virginia Tech (+3, 47)

Why Miami covers: Sophomore Jacory Harris has vaulted himself into the Heisman talk. He ranks third nationally in passing efficiency (184.07), has 656 passing yards in two games and has already accounted for six touchdowns. Tech?s defense should be the best he has seen so far, however.

Why Virginia Tech covers: The Hokies are 1-1 against UM since Randy Shannon took over but haven?t lost to the Canes since 2005 in Blacksburg.

No. 14 TCU at Clemson (-3, 42.5)

Why TCU covers: The stellar Horned Frogs defense might not have to face a 100 percent healthy C.J. Spiller, who is easily Clemson?s best player. The star RB has a turf toe that he says ?hurts all over? but insists he will start Saturday.

Why Clemson covers: The Tigers have a 26-29 record all-time against top 25 teams at home, including a 7-11-1 record against non-conference top 25 teams. But it has won four of the past six at home against ranked foes.

Fresno State at No. 15 Cincinnati (-17, 61.5)

Why Fresno State covers: The Bulldogs have to be thinking they can run the ball on anyone after watching RB Ryan Mathews rush for a career-high 234 yards against a great Boise State rush defense.

Why Cincinnati covers: The Bearcats run defense is about as good as the Fresno run offense. The stop unit has allowed just 208 yards rushing combined in three games.

Arizona State at No. 17 Georgia (-11.5, 52.5)

Why Arizona State covers: The Sun Devils have been preparing for this game for months after opening with cupcakes in Idaho State and

Louisiana-Monroe. They lead the nation in total offense.

Why Georgia covers: The Bulldogs have lost just two non-conference games under Mark Richt. They beat the Sun Devils 27-10 in Tempe last year. The Georgia offense is on fire, having scored a combined 93 points during their last two games.

No. 18 North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-2.5, 47)

Why North Carolina covers: The Heels totally stuffed that Georgia Tech triple-option in a 28-7 win last year in Chapel Hill. This year, UNC leads the ACC and ranks seventh nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 52.3 yards per game.

Why Georgia Tech covers: The Jackets have a few extra days to prepare following last Thursday?s loss at Miami. Tech has not lost to UNC in Atlanta since 1997 and has won nine of the last 11 meetings overall.

Southern Miss at No. 19 Kansas (-14, 58)

Why Southern Miss covers: The Golden Eagles enter with the nation?s second-longest winning streak. They rushed for 214 yards against Virginia last week and can keep the potent KU offense off the field if they can control the ball.

Why Kansas covers: The Jayhawks have won 19 consecutive non-conference home games, which dates to 2003. KU has outscored its first three opponents this year by a combined score of 97-26. The Southern Miss pass defense was shredded last week by a bad Virginia team.

Colorado State at No. 20 BYU (-17, 55.5)

Why Colorado State covers: The Rams almost pulled off the upset last year, losing 45-42 at home. This year, CSU is gunning for its first 4-0 start since 1994 and looked good last week in handling Nevada.

Why BYU covers: The Cougars have to regroup after being punished by Florida State, but BYU hasn?t lost a conference home game since late in the 2005 season. It has won five in a row in this series and CSU hasn?t beaten a ranked team on the road since 1997.

No. 21 Missouri at Nevada (+7, 61)

Why Missouri covers: Mizzou covered by a mile against Nevada last year, 69-17. Chase Daniel had his way with the Nevada pass defense in 2008, and that unit isn?t much better. New Missouri starter Blaine Gabbert has completed 68 percent of his throws with eight TDs and no picks so far.

Why Nevada covers: The Wolf Pack have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Tigers. Nevada should be extra motivated in its home opener.

Indiana at No. 22 Michigan (-20.5, 54.5)

Why Indiana covers: This could be a trap game for Michigan. The Wolverines has their rivalry game at Michigan State next week. The Hoosiers have allowed just one sack this year in three wins.

Why Michigan covers: It?s homecoming for the Wolverines (they are 82-26 in those overall), who lead the Big Ten in scoring offense (38.0 avg.) and rushing offense (270.7 avg.).UM has also won 23 straight conference openers at home.

Texas Tech at No. 23 Houston (-1, 73)

Why Texas Tech covers: TTU QB Taylor Potts leads the country with an average of 427 yards passing per game. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach is an offensive guru who always finds ways of pointing points up on the board.

Why Houston covers: The Cougars own C-USA?s No. 1 pass defense and the nation?s top scoring offense.

UL Lafayette at No. 24 Nebraska (-27.5, 53.5)

Why ULL covers: The Ragin? Cajuns beat Kansas State and played LSU closer than the score indicated last week. Their offensive line is a strength with five starters back no sacks allowed yet this year.

Why Nebraska covers: You?d assume a bit of a letdown for Nebraska this week after letting that game at Virginia Tech get away last Saturday. Plus the Huskers then have a week off before playing at Missouri. The Huskers have lost three of their past four homecoming games.

South Florida at No. 25 Florida State (-14, 49.5)

Why South Florida covers: The Bulls will be amped up for this game, as it?s the program?s first game against Florida State ever. FSU?s pass defense is among the worst in the nation.

Why Florida covers: USF will be starting a redshirt freshman at QB after losing Matt Grothe for the season. The Noles rediscovered their ground game last week, gouging the Cougars for 313 yards.
 

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Missouri (3-0) at Nevada (0-2)

Missouri (3-0) at Nevada (0-2)

Missouri (3-0) at Nevada (0-2)





DATE & TIME: Friday, September 25th, 9:00 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Mackay Stadium (31,545) -- Reno, Nevada. Television: ESPN. Home Record: Missouri 2-0, Nevada 0-0. Away Record: Missouri 0-0, Nevada 0-2. Neutral Record: Missouri 1-0, Nevada 0-0. Conference Record: Missouri 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Series Record: Missouri leads, 1-0.

GAME NOTES: Getting the spotlight all to themselves on Friday night, the Nevada Wolf Pack will host the Missouri Tigers in a non-conference affair at Mackay Stadium.

Nevada, which was supposed to be one of the favorites to challenge for the title in the Western Athletic Conference, has started out extremely slow with back-to-back losses against non-conference opponents. The team was dealt an ugly 35-0 setback by Notre Dame in South Bend to kick off the 2009 slate and then followed that up last week with a 35-20 loss at Colorado State, the team's third straight defeat stretching back to last season.

As for the Tigers, they have won their first three games of the season, and four in a row overall, but the squad has yet to be truly tested. Wins over Illinois and Bowling Green were followed by a 52-12 blowout of Furman last weekend. Missouri will have a better understanding of how strong it is beginning in two weeks when it opens the Big 12 Conference portion of its schedule versus Nebraska at home.

Last season, the Tigers completely shredded Nevada in an unsightly 69-17 decision in the first-ever meeting between the two schools on the gridiron.

Beating up on the Paladins isn't exactly the best way for the Tigers to throw a scare into future opponents, but Missouri couldn't help but run away with the 40-point win last Saturday. Granted, the Tigers did call off the dogs at the break when they held a 42-0 edge, thanks to quarterback Blaine Gabbert who converted 17-of-25 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Gabbert also posted one of the team's two rushing TDs as well, while Jared Perry and Danario Alexander both scored a pair of receiving touchdowns in the outing. Even though he is in a league where top-notch quarterbacks rule the roost, Gabbert is slowly making a name for himself, having completed better than 68 percent of his pass attempts, averaging nearly 250 ypg through the air. Better yet, the signal-caller has tossed eight touchdowns in the first three games and has yet to be picked off. With an average of 103 ypg receiving and four touchdowns, Perry has made himself into one of the top wideouts in the Big 12 early on.

Once the Tigers opened up such a huge lead over Furman last weekend, the defense for the home team was able to sit back and relax. While the unit did surrender close to 400 yards, the bottom line was that Missouri permitted just two touchdowns on drives that were at least 75 yards in length. Will Ebner was credited with a game-high nine tackles for the Tigers, while Andrew Gachkar came up with the lone sack of the contest for the home team. Not to be overlooked was Jacquies Smith who returned an interception 43 yards for a TD in the second quarter as well. Jacquies Smith has a total of just 10 tackles through the first three games of the season, yet he has made a sizeable impact by logging 1.5 sacks and is second behind only Aldon Smith who has two sacks and four tackles for loss in his first year of college football. Standing at the top of the tackles list for the unit at the moment is Sean Witherspoon who is among the league leaders with close to 10 stops per outing.

For all the hoopla surrounding Nevada's pistol offense, it really hasn't made enough of an impression yet in 2009. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick was one of the nation's top offensive threats last season, but this year he has started off slow and has shown moments of disgust trying to operate the squad. Against Colorado State the signal-caller converted 25-of-38 passes for 251 yards and a score, but he was also picked off twice and finished with a mere 24 yards rushing on seven attempts. Vai Taua handled the bulk of the carries for the Pack versus CSU, coming up with 95 yards and two scores, but it wasn't nearly enough. Taua is currently third in the conference in rushing with his 104.5 ypg and has both of the unit's rushing scores in as many games, but the real concern is the lack of production by Kaepernick who has just 63 yards on 17 attempts. Granted, the quarterback has had to perform more like a traditional signal-caller in order to try and get the Pack back into contention against the first two opponents of the season, but his one TD against four interceptions has not done the trick.

With the Nevada offense struggling in the first half last Saturday, the defense was left to keep the Rams under control, but that failed to become a reality. In fact, CSU logged a pair of touchdowns in the first 13 minutes of the contest and never had reason to fear the Pack, even as the visitors scored a pair of touchdowns in the final 3:08 of the fourth frame. As one of the top defenders in the WAC this season, Kevin Basped stepped up with one of the team's two sacks, but with just three overall stops he didn't make enough of an impact. Mike Bethea totaled nine stops and the other sack for the program, while Dontay Moch registered a pair of TFLs. What the Pack was unable to do was come up with a forced turnover and that's why the team as a whole is now 120th in the nation in turnover margin with a minus-4.0 turnovers per game. Having been picked apart by Notre Dame, the program that is first in the nation in pass efficiency, it should come as little surprise that Nevada is again last in the nation in pass efficiency defense with a rating of 231.59.

Perhaps being at home the Pack will get a lift from a favorable crowd, but unless Nevada can strike early and gain some confidence, the squad might have to settle for yet another loss

Predicted Outcome: Missouri 45, Nevada 27
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Sharp money drives the total for Mizzou-Nevada

Sharp money drives the total for Mizzou-Nevada

Sharp money drives the total for Mizzou-Nevada


No. 21 Missouri Tigers (3-0, 2-1 ATS) at Nevada Wolf Pack (0-2, 0-2 ATS)

Where the Line Opened: Missouri -7.5

Where it Stands Now: Missouri -7.5

What are the Sharps Backing: Over 59, 59.5, & 60. First sharp play came on Over 59, on Wednesday morning. Then more wise action came on over 59.5 and 60 later that afternoon, so we have been liberal in shading the over.

Over/Under Movement: 59 to 61.5

What the Book is Rooting for: Nevada and Under. A couple huge decisions here for the book, as 86 percent of side action is backing Missouri and 75 percent of total action is on the Over.

Injury Report: Missouri: LB John Tatum (back) is doubtful, SS Hardy Ricks (ankle) is probable; Nevada: None

Comments: Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert is making Tigers fans quickly forget about Chase Daniel. Gabbert has thrown eight touchdowns, no interceptions, has completed 68 percent of his passes and has rushed for two TDs for good measure.

Wolf Pack QB Colin Kaepernick has struggled this season, only throwing one TD pass while throwing four interceptions. Kaepernick only had seven INTs in 2008. Going to back to last year, Nevada has now failed to cover five straight games. They have been outrushed in four of those games. Maybe it's time for Nevada to get back-to-basics and run the ball more.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Pack football: Nevada's focus shifts inward for home-opener


Like most college football coaches, Nevada's Chris Ault often says, "It's not about them, it's about us."

Despite the fact that a ranked team has the Wolf Pack in its crosshairs -- No. 21 Missouri (USA Today/ESPN poll) at 6 p.m. tonight in the Wolf Pack's home-opener at Mackay Stadium -- that notion might mean more this week than it ever has.

Through two games this season, the Wolf Pack has committed eight turnovers and forced none. It has been penalized 15 times (opponents, seven). And, not coincidentally, it has yet to win with losses at Notre Dame (35-0) and Colorado State (35-20).

"When we are making mistakes, they are critical," Ault said. "And it's just killing us."

Tonight's game has taken on added importance for the Wolf Pack simply because it must play well or risk the chance of this slow start burrowing into the team's subconscious.

"We've got to focus on ourselves and what we've got to get done so we can be a winning program like we usually have been," junior defensive end Kevin Basped said. "We just need to start fast and eliminate the errors. We've got to stay together and

fight on."

Ninth-year Tigers coach Gary Pinkel, who brought his Toledo team to Mackay in 1995, believes the Wolf Pack is ready to break out.

"I know we're excited to play. I know they're going to be," Pinkel said. "They've had a couple tough football games and had a lot of turnovers. They're a better football team then what their records have shown. Notre Dame and

Colorado State are good football teams.

"Their fans will be into it, I guarantee you. This is a good game for us, against a real good football team in a tough environment. We're going to find out about ourselves a little bit."

Although the Tigers lost a lot of talent from the team that beat Nevada, 69-17, in Columbia, Mo., last year, they have done a good job replacing it. Missouri has only 14 seniors on its roster, and only five are expected to start tonight. Ten of the starters are sophomores and freshmen.

One factor that might work in the Wolf Pack's favor is that these young Tigers are effectively playing their first road game of the year. They beat Illinois in their opener, 37-9, at St. Louis, and then defeated Bowling Green (27-20) and Furman (52-12) in Columbia.

"It's our first real road game, so we're excited for the challenge," said senior linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who had a game-high 12 tackles, 21/2 for loss, in the win over Nevada last year. "They've got a good team up there. We had some scares with them when they came here last year because they have a quarterback (Colin Kaepernick) that can create mismatches, so we've really got to go out there and be sound and play solid football."

The Wolf Pack would not appear to match up real well with the Tigers.

Nevada has moved the ball pretty well in its first two games, but has had trouble scoring because of the mistakes. Missouri has allowed 325, 320 and 398 yards to its first three opponents, but has allowed just 13.7 points per game. Nevada was second in the nation in big plays (scoring plays of 25 yards or more) last season. So far this year, Missouri has allowed just seven plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers allowed nine such plays to Illinois alone last season.

Weatherspoon, the weakside backer, is the leader on defense, but he's had plenty of help. Freshman defensive end Aldon Smith is exceptionally quick off the snap and already has four tackles for loss, two sacks and two pass break-ups. Jaron Baston, a 305-pound nosetackle, is a rock in the middle who started every game last season.

Another match-up issue for the Pack is that Missouri's defense is better against the run, the Pack's bread and butter. Opponents average just 105 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. The Tigers have allowed 62 percent passing and 242 yards per game through the air. Part of that comes from the fact that the Tigers have been comfortably ahead in two of their three games, so opponents end up throwing the ball more.

"I think we're doing OK," Pinkel said, referring to his secondary. "Every week there is going to be a different answer to that question. ... (Cornerbacks) Carl Gettis and Kevin Rutland have played really well.

"... This week is a different challenge with option football. The quarterback can run really well, which puts a lot of pressure on the corners. My big thing is I just want to play more focused. One play can change a football game, especially back there. There is no one else back there."

The mismatches continue on the other side of the ball, where the Pack has struggled giving up big plays.

Mizzou's strength is its passing attack behind sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert -- who statistically is having a better sophomore season than 2008 Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel had in 2006 -- and senior receivers Danario Alexander and Jared Perry. Sophomore Wes Kemp completes the Tigers' three-receiver set. The trio combined for 44 receptions for 663 yards and eight touchdowns in the first three games.

The Wolf Pack could counter with a new line-up that debuted against Colorado State when ends Basped, Dontay Moch and Ryan Coulson were all on the field at the same time in some situations, usually passing downs.

"As a coach, you try to figure out a way to get your best 11 on the field where it's not going to hurt you," Nevada defensive coordinator Nigel Burton said. "That's what we tried to do. It helped us last week. You've just got to be smart about what situations you do that."

The Tigers, though, are more balanced than they were a year ago. Mizzou had 235 first downs passing and 100 first downs rushing last season. So far this year, that ratio is 32-32.

Derrick Washington, who rushed for 75 yards and two TDs against Nevada in 2008, is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Tigers are also slowly introducing Kendial Lawrence, a 5-foot-9, 185-pound freshman and Parade All-American. He's had 21 carries and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

If all that sounds a bit scary, it should. But it really doesn't matter to the Wolf Pack.

"Right now, we've just got to get back in our groove," Kaepernick said.

Additional Facts
Wolf Pack Football
Who: Missouri (3-0) vs. Nevada (0-2)
When: 6 p.m. today
Where: Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf; capacity, 29,993)
EXPECTED CROWD: 25,000-26,000, according to Nevada officials
TV: ESPN/630 AM, 5 p.m.
Betting line: Missouri is favored by 71/2 (line opened at 71/2); total is 61
TICKETS: $19-$41; 348-PACK or nevadawolfpack.com
 
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