NBA THU 043009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

Well, we stand at 10-3 for the playoffs. I want to try something different today. I'm going to post my cap notes summary. I've never done this before. These are the final reports I look at before making any play. Maybe I see things differently. Ignore the codes and focus on the bet selections. Assign equal weight to each and make the call for a POD. All % based on listed numbers. BOL

BOS +3 / CHI 195.5

9 no bet
bos 50% no bet
side 60.5% bet bos
11 no bet
over 57.14% bet over
over/under 59% bet over
series o/u 80% bet over
series over 100% 3-0 bet over
tside 61.67% no bet
1side 58.62% bet bos
1bos 33.33% bet chi
2side 64.52% bet chi
2chi 100% 3-0 bet chi
to/u 58.6% bet under
2o/u 60.61% bet under
2under 55.56% bet under
2series o/u 80% bet under
2series over 100% 3-0 bet over

ORL +5.5 / PHI 184

9 no bet
orl 100% 1-0 bet orl
side 60.5% bet orl
4 100% 4-0 bet under
under 60% bet under
over/under 59% bet under
series o/u 80% bet under
series under 80% bet under
tside 61.67% bet orl
1side 58.62% bet orl
1orl 0% 0-3 bet phi
to/u 58.6% bet under
2o/u 60.61% bet under
2under 55.56% bet under
2series o/u 40% bet over
2series under 66.67% bet under

POR +5 / HOU1 179.5

0 no bet
hou 50% no bet
side 60.5% bet hou
4 100% 4-0 bet under
under 60% bet under
over/under 59% bet under
series o/u 80% bet under
series under 100% 2-0
tside 61.67% bet hou
2side 64.52% bet hou
2hou 0% 0-1 bet por
total o/u 58.6% no bet
1o/u 55.17% bet over
1over 51.63% bet over
1series o/u 50% no bet
1series over 50% no bet
2o/u 60.61% bet under
2under 55.56% bet under
2series o/u 60% bet under
2series under 60% bet under

 

[rragga2727]

ax, you've been on a great run!!!.Glad to see you were all over that denver -10.5.I hit that big!!! plus the atlanta cover . Great night!!!
for my input here's what i see.
bos/chi this is such a toss up series it's hard to imagine tommorrow anything different. The bulls-3 is the spread,and it is possible they could win! they are very confident, but i'm teasing.....the largest margin of victory for the bulls is 3 points. i cannot see them winning by 7. I'm not giving up on the possibility of the celtics winning out right my pick celtics +7. totals .every game as gone over and three of them should have been unders this game should go under, but i can't touch the under with another ot always possible,maybe a look at 1st half under , but not committed.
Orl/phil- I like the sixers -5.5. Howard has dominated interior off/def i like sixers to attack the rim off/def, plus big men are gonna be freed up to roam freely . loss of lee shortens bench of orlando. big effort from sixers tommorrow.
lean on under, but not committed yet
port/hous- the last 4 games have all been in the 80's houston's largest home victory is 3 points. This is it for portland after a great game five. Roy , aldridge and company are gonna give everything. I'm hopeing they can contain yao and get some support ! I see this game as another toss up and to tease and get port +9 i will take it.
small play on the under
i got bos+7/port+9
phil-5.5
bos+7/port+9/phil-1.5
it's been an incredibly profitable playoffs . can't wait for round 2:mj06:
aren't you done yet??????????????:hah:

 

[Eagle123]

Lets make some cash today Ax!!

 

[Ools]

Well, we stand at 10-3 for the playoffs. I want to try something different today. I'm going to post my cap notes summary. I've never done this before. These are the final reports I look at before making any play. Maybe I see things differently. Ignore the codes and focus on the bet selections. Assign equal weight to each and make the call for a POD. All % based on listed numbers. BOL

in bos/chic - can't lay points in this series, so Bos is the lean. Like the under - has to tighten up here some - everygame can't go OT - can it?

Phill/Orl - see tight 1st half and Philly pulls away with double digit win here at home vs depleted Orl team. The 184 and Howad out has people looking at under, but you remove a 20 rebound, 5 blocks a game guy and you seriously change makeup of the game. Philly will run more with better rebounding and Orlando will need to generate more points in transition with less 1/2 court offense - like over with 184 value.

Port/Hou - again lean to taking points with a Port team that is learning vs Yao who could be getting worn down. Your analysis looks like under and I would lean there.

 

[Griffin8s]

Fell asleep in the first Qtr of the Den. game great to wake up at 1:30am and find out your a winner. Sleep great the rest of the night.

Early leans have to be

I like rragga play with the teaser to get the C's to +7. This series has been so tight and I would not rule out another OT. So easy to say I'm not touching the total, don't even care to look at the number. (Still pissed from Sunday's Dbl OT)

So what do we tease with?
76ers! Philly is not going to let this opptunity slip away with Howard out. This is the perfect time to give it everything you got in front of the home crowd.
All I got for now. Going to be a long day and won't have much time to post. Last day of the month in a car dealership is madness!!

GL to all!! Lets keep rollin'!!:00x1

Anybody else find that Mia/Atl game f'ed up last night?? 17pts to the over, where did that come from??

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore Thursday-

Boston by .5 and 192.1
Rockets by 5.2 and 177.6
Sixers by 3.8 and 180.6

Accuscore selections: Bos & U, Hou -5 or less & U, Magic & U

Accuscore Playoff Record:

Sides 14-22-2
Totals: 26-12-1

Riding the totals again, all 3 unders, hoping for 2-1 or 3-0, game that worries me the most is Sixers (without howard inside, how many easy baskets will there be?)

 

[axp59]

ax, you've been on a great run!!!.Glad to see you were all over that denver -10.5.I hit that big!!! plus the atlanta cover . Great night!!!
for my input here's what i see.
bos/chi this is such a toss up series it's hard to imagine tommorrow anything different. The bulls-3 is the spread,and it is possible they could win! they are very confident, but i'm teasing.....the largest margin of victory for the bulls is 3 points. i cannot see them winning by 7. I'm not giving up on the possibility of the celtics winning out right my pick celtics +7. totals .every game as gone over and three of them should have been unders this game should go under, but i can't touch the under with another ot always possible,maybe a look at 1st half under , but not committed.
Orl/phil- I like the sixers -5.5. Howard has dominated interior off/def i like sixers to attack the rim off/def, plus big men are gonna be freed up to roam freely . loss of lee shortens bench of orlando. big effort from sixers tommorrow.
lean on under, but not committed yet
port/hous- the last 4 games have all been in the 80's houston's largest home victory is 3 points. This is it for portland after a great game five. Roy , aldridge and company are gonna give everything. I'm hopeing they can contain yao and get some support ! I see this game as another toss up and to tease and get port +9 i will take it.
small play on the under
i got bos+7/port+9
phil-5.5
bos+7/port+9/phil-1.5
it's been an incredibly profitable playoffs . can't wait for round 2:mj06:
aren't you done yet??????????????:hah:

thanks rragga. I think I'm going to go focus on the totals today. These 'should' be easy games to cap since we're 5 deep into h2h. It doesn't seem to help though. I still haven't locked anything.

No, almost done then I have some paperwork I have to do for some other commitments. Why are there always distractions from capping? BOL today sir.

 

[axp59]

in bos/chic - can't lay points in this series, so Bos is the lean. Like the under - has to tighten up here some - everygame can't go OT - can it?

Phill/Orl - see tight 1st half and Philly pulls away with double digit win here at home vs depleted Orl team. The 184 and Howad out has people looking at under, but you remove a 20 rebound, 5 blocks a game guy and you seriously change makeup of the game. Philly will run more with better rebounding and Orlando will need to generate more points in transition with less 1/2 court offense - like over with 184 value.

Port/Hou - again lean to taking points with a Port team that is learning vs Yao who could be getting worn down. Your analysis looks like under and I would lean there.

Thanks Ools, I'm leaning on the POR/HOU U. There's probably only one play out there for me today so I have to be picky. BOL pal

 

[axp59]

Anybody else find that Mia/Atl game f'ed up last night?? 17pts to the over, where did that come from??

...and NOH/DEN barely fell below the number...back to flippin coins.. LOL BOL Gunny, go sell some cars!!!

 

[axp59]

Riding the totals again, all 3 unders, hoping for 2-1 or 3-0, game that worries me the most is Sixers (without howard inside, how many easy baskets will there be?)

why not? I like it. My POD will come from one of these unders. BOL Slice

 

[joe_shmoe]

why not? I like it. My POD will come from one of these unders. BOL Slice

I'm on the under 179.5 portland FG and under 97.5 1H of the boston game myself.

BOL as always Ax. Go get em.

 

[Eagle123]

Think to bet on Portland +5.5, what is your comment ax?

 

[JBrilman]

Another good night, good input yesterday on the forum guys lets keep it up.

Early Leans

Hou UNDER - why would the composure of this game be any different than the last 3?

PHI -5
PHI OVER

dont be fooled by Howard being out, that will definately free things up for Sixers to rebound and RUN!!!

 

[Ools]

line move

line move

the only line movement out there is philly over -- up to 185.5 from 184. I'm going to lock in a 1/2 unit here on the over since I think it could move up more before settling.

 

[axp59]

I'm on the under 179.5 portland FG and under 97.5 1H of the boston game myself.

BOL as always Ax. Go get em.

I like it. BOL sir.

 

[axp59]

Think to bet on Portland +5.5, what is your comment ax?

Eagle, I don't know man...tough call for me. HOU might be tough tonight. BOL

 

[axp59]

Another good night, good input yesterday on the forum guys lets keep it up.

Early Leans

Hou UNDER - why would the composure of this game be any different than the last 3?

PHI -5
PHI OVER

dont be fooled by Howard being out, that will definately free things up for Sixers to rebound and RUN!!!

BOL Jus...looking like we're all looking at the POR/HOU under.

 

[JBrilman]

BOL Jus...looking like we're all looking at the POR/HOU under.

Yeah...

What do you think about PHI over? and side?

 

[JBrilman]

also thinking about a teaser with

PHI
BOS

thoughts?

 

[composite]

What do you think about PHIL team totals over? I love Phila tonight giving the points. But even if they can't cover, ORL can only keep it close by outgunning them. Meaning PHIL has a good chance of going over the team total # even if they lose.

Courtney Lee wasn't just a decent outside shooter, he's also their best perimeter defender. Without him and Howard that's a lot lost on the defensive side of the ball?